Robert Shiller – home prices could slide for 20 years?

[CA renter]

Ultimately, still a deflationist. 🙂

[temeculaguy]

threadkiller-thanks, but I prefer my role as color commentator. If you haven’t already figured it out, I’m all style, minimal substance and Rich is 5 times smarter than I am, I know my place.

rich-not to make this a lovefest, but you are more shilleresque than you probably realize. You don’t make the data bend to fit your paradigm or to prove a point. You are also smart enough to know that you can’t predict the future, just increase your odds. Stay classy and consistent, especially when I challenge your assertion that there is no oil bubble a few pargraphs from now.

BG-I used manahatan as an extreme example. There’s NYC and the midwest, everything else is on a sliding scale in between the two. Zoning plays a role too in that scale. Did you know that the city of poway is essentially built out and you cant knock down a house and build three condos there, like you can in San Diego. Even my own beloved Temecula is near build out. Zoning is what Shiller refers to as “land restricted.” It throws off the formula, much of So cal is strictly zoned, hence the silly prices and also why sdrealtor sees what he sees, not much land left for anyone to do what they please.

Now to the rest and a mild oil threadjack. I have only seen a few things with true clarity. Ford stock when it was $2 a share, The Wire as the greatest televion show of all time, and Oil’s days are numbered. Maybe it’s not a bubble this year, but that party is so over, as is how the world works. I like our position for what I see as the next true revoloution.

The advancements are exploding, the answer is going to end up being a combination of sun, land, and technology. Guess what, The U.S. has a fantastic set up moving forward. Watch this video

http://www.jouleunlimited.com/video/story.html

They took the next step, 15k acres for real production, $20 a barrell for diesel (incentives included, of course), totally green and carbon nuetral. A year from now, it goes into the fuel tanks of our trucks on the road. In ten years, we not only stop importing oil, we export it. Europe and most of asia cant even make it, you need deserts and wasteland, we’ve got plenty. The fun part, this isnt even the best company, there are san diego companies ahead of them. Probably none actually win, but they build off each other and its moving fast. In 1993 I had a 14400 baud modem and it took a minute to load the yahoo page, but i thought that was the future, now I think this is. Before I leave this planet, I will read some blog or some news story about humanitarian aid to Saudi Arabia, because nobody needs the only thing they have. I will also read about germany and japan being dependant on us and copying our technology once again, fuel freedom helps us more than anyone because its our achilles heel and we are uniquely positioned geographically to take advantage of the next wave. My grandkids haven’t even been born and they are already fatigued by my stories about how the U.S. was brought to her knees back in my day. I can hear it now “Grandpa, what is oil?” I know this to be true, what is blury is if there will be a raven haired beauty that will bring me a glass of wine, kiss me lovingly on the cheek as she hands me a glass and tells me not to scare the children and to save some of that passion for later when we are alone, one can only hope.

[temeculaguy]

threadkiller-thanks, but I prefer my role as color commentator. If you haven’t already figured it out, I’m all style, minimal substance and Rich is 5 times smarter than I am, I know my place.

rich-not to make this a lovefest, but you are more shilleresque than you probably realize. You don’t make the data bend to fit your paradigm or to prove a point. You are also smart enough to know that you can’t predict the future, just increase your odds. Stay classy and consistent, especially when I challenge your assertion that there is no oil bubble a few pargraphs from now.

BG-I used manahatan as an extreme example. There’s NYC and the midwest, everything else is on a sliding scale in between the two. Zoning plays a role too in that scale. Did you know that the city of poway is essentially built out and you cant knock down a house and build three condos there, like you can in San Diego. Even my own beloved Temecula is near build out. Zoning is what Shiller refers to as “land restricted.” It throws off the formula, much of So cal is strictly zoned, hence the silly prices and also why sdrealtor sees what he sees, not much land left for anyone to do what they please.

Now to the rest and a mild oil threadjack. I have only seen a few things with true clarity. Ford stock when it was $2 a share, The Wire as the greatest televion show of all time, and Oil’s days are numbered. Maybe it’s not a bubble this year, but that party is so over, as is how the world works. I like our position for what I see as the next true revoloution.

The advancements are exploding, the answer is going to end up being a combination of sun, land, and technology. Guess what, The U.S. has a fantastic set up moving forward. Watch this video

http://www.jouleunlimited.com/video/story.html

They took the next step, 15k acres for real production, $20 a barrell for diesel (incentives included, of course), totally green and carbon nuetral. A year from now, it goes into the fuel tanks of our trucks on the road. In ten years, we not only stop importing oil, we export it. Europe and most of asia cant even make it, you need deserts and wasteland, we’ve got plenty. The fun part, this isnt even the best company, there are san diego companies ahead of them. Probably none actually win, but they build off each other and its moving fast. In 1993 I had a 14400 baud modem and it took a minute to load the yahoo page, but i thought that was the future, now I think this is. Before I leave this planet, I will read some blog or some news story about humanitarian aid to Saudi Arabia, because nobody needs the only thing they have. I will also read about germany and japan being dependant on us and copying our technology once again, fuel freedom helps us more than anyone because its our achilles heel and we are uniquely positioned geographically to take advantage of the next wave. My grandkids haven’t even been born and they are already fatigued by my stories about how the U.S. was brought to her knees back in my day. I can hear it now “Grandpa, what is oil?” I know this to be true, what is blury is if there will be a raven haired beauty that will bring me a glass of wine, kiss me lovingly on the cheek as she hands me a glass and tells me not to scare the children and to save some of that passion for later when we are alone, one can only hope.

[temeculaguy]

threadkiller-thanks, but I prefer my role as color commentator. If you haven’t already figured it out, I’m all style, minimal substance and Rich is 5 times smarter than I am, I know my place.

rich-not to make this a lovefest, but you are more shilleresque than you probably realize. You don’t make the data bend to fit your paradigm or to prove a point. You are also smart enough to know that you can’t predict the future, just increase your odds. Stay classy and consistent, especially when I challenge your assertion that there is no oil bubble a few pargraphs from now.

BG-I used manahatan as an extreme example. There’s NYC and the midwest, everything else is on a sliding scale in between the two. Zoning plays a role too in that scale. Did you know that the city of poway is essentially built out and you cant knock down a house and build three condos there, like you can in San Diego. Even my own beloved Temecula is near build out. Zoning is what Shiller refers to as “land restricted.” It throws off the formula, much of So cal is strictly zoned, hence the silly prices and also why sdrealtor sees what he sees, not much land left for anyone to do what they please.

Now to the rest and a mild oil threadjack. I have only seen a few things with true clarity. Ford stock when it was $2 a share, The Wire as the greatest televion show of all time, and Oil’s days are numbered. Maybe it’s not a bubble this year, but that party is so over, as is how the world works. I like our position for what I see as the next true revoloution.

The advancements are exploding, the answer is going to end up being a combination of sun, land, and technology. Guess what, The U.S. has a fantastic set up moving forward. Watch this video

http://www.jouleunlimited.com/video/story.html

They took the next step, 15k acres for real production, $20 a barrell for diesel (incentives included, of course), totally green and carbon nuetral. A year from now, it goes into the fuel tanks of our trucks on the road. In ten years, we not only stop importing oil, we export it. Europe and most of asia cant even make it, you need deserts and wasteland, we’ve got plenty. The fun part, this isnt even the best company, there are san diego companies ahead of them. Probably none actually win, but they build off each other and its moving fast. In 1993 I had a 14400 baud modem and it took a minute to load the yahoo page, but i thought that was the future, now I think this is. Before I leave this planet, I will read some blog or some news story about humanitarian aid to Saudi Arabia, because nobody needs the only thing they have. I will also read about germany and japan being dependant on us and copying our technology once again, fuel freedom helps us more than anyone because its our achilles heel and we are uniquely positioned geographically to take advantage of the next wave. My grandkids haven’t even been born and they are already fatigued by my stories about how the U.S. was brought to her knees back in my day. I can hear it now “Grandpa, what is oil?” I know this to be true, what is blury is if there will be a raven haired beauty that will bring me a glass of wine, kiss me lovingly on the cheek as she hands me a glass and tells me not to scare the children and to save some of that passion for later when we are alone, one can only hope.

[temeculaguy]

threadkiller-thanks, but I prefer my role as color commentator. If you haven’t already figured it out, I’m all style, minimal substance and Rich is 5 times smarter than I am, I know my place.

rich-not to make this a lovefest, but you are more shilleresque than you probably realize. You don’t make the data bend to fit your paradigm or to prove a point. You are also smart enough to know that you can’t predict the future, just increase your odds. Stay classy and consistent, especially when I challenge your assertion that there is no oil bubble a few pargraphs from now.

BG-I used manahatan as an extreme example. There’s NYC and the midwest, everything else is on a sliding scale in between the two. Zoning plays a role too in that scale. Did you know that the city of poway is essentially built out and you cant knock down a house and build three condos there, like you can in San Diego. Even my own beloved Temecula is near build out. Zoning is what Shiller refers to as “land restricted.” It throws off the formula, much of So cal is strictly zoned, hence the silly prices and also why sdrealtor sees what he sees, not much land left for anyone to do what they please.

Now to the rest and a mild oil threadjack. I have only seen a few things with true clarity. Ford stock when it was $2 a share, The Wire as the greatest televion show of all time, and Oil’s days are numbered. Maybe it’s not a bubble this year, but that party is so over, as is how the world works. I like our position for what I see as the next true revoloution.

The advancements are exploding, the answer is going to end up being a combination of sun, land, and technology. Guess what, The U.S. has a fantastic set up moving forward. Watch this video

http://www.jouleunlimited.com/video/story.html

They took the next step, 15k acres for real production, $20 a barrell for diesel (incentives included, of course), totally green and carbon nuetral. A year from now, it goes into the fuel tanks of our trucks on the road. In ten years, we not only stop importing oil, we export it. Europe and most of asia cant even make it, you need deserts and wasteland, we’ve got plenty. The fun part, this isnt even the best company, there are san diego companies ahead of them. Probably none actually win, but they build off each other and its moving fast. In 1993 I had a 14400 baud modem and it took a minute to load the yahoo page, but i thought that was the future, now I think this is. Before I leave this planet, I will read some blog or some news story about humanitarian aid to Saudi Arabia, because nobody needs the only thing they have. I will also read about germany and japan being dependant on us and copying our technology once again, fuel freedom helps us more than anyone because its our achilles heel and we are uniquely positioned geographically to take advantage of the next wave. My grandkids haven’t even been born and they are already fatigued by my stories about how the U.S. was brought to her knees back in my day. I can hear it now “Grandpa, what is oil?” I know this to be true, what is blury is if there will be a raven haired beauty that will bring me a glass of wine, kiss me lovingly on the cheek as she hands me a glass and tells me not to scare the children and to save some of that passion for later when we are alone, one can only hope.

[temeculaguy]

threadkiller-thanks, but I prefer my role as color commentator. If you haven’t already figured it out, I’m all style, minimal substance and Rich is 5 times smarter than I am, I know my place.

rich-not to make this a lovefest, but you are more shilleresque than you probably realize. You don’t make the data bend to fit your paradigm or to prove a point. You are also smart enough to know that you can’t predict the future, just increase your odds. Stay classy and consistent, especially when I challenge your assertion that there is no oil bubble a few pargraphs from now.

BG-I used manahatan as an extreme example. There’s NYC and the midwest, everything else is on a sliding scale in between the two. Zoning plays a role too in that scale. Did you know that the city of poway is essentially built out and you cant knock down a house and build three condos there, like you can in San Diego. Even my own beloved Temecula is near build out. Zoning is what Shiller refers to as “land restricted.” It throws off the formula, much of So cal is strictly zoned, hence the silly prices and also why sdrealtor sees what he sees, not much land left for anyone to do what they please.

Now to the rest and a mild oil threadjack. I have only seen a few things with true clarity. Ford stock when it was $2 a share, The Wire as the greatest televion show of all time, and Oil’s days are numbered. Maybe it’s not a bubble this year, but that party is so over, as is how the world works. I like our position for what I see as the next true revoloution.

The advancements are exploding, the answer is going to end up being a combination of sun, land, and technology. Guess what, The U.S. has a fantastic set up moving forward. Watch this video

http://www.jouleunlimited.com/video/story.html

They took the next step, 15k acres for real production, $20 a barrell for diesel (incentives included, of course), totally green and carbon nuetral. A year from now, it goes into the fuel tanks of our trucks on the road. In ten years, we not only stop importing oil, we export it. Europe and most of asia cant even make it, you need deserts and wasteland, we’ve got plenty. The fun part, this isnt even the best company, there are san diego companies ahead of them. Probably none actually win, but they build off each other and its moving fast. In 1993 I had a 14400 baud modem and it took a minute to load the yahoo page, but i thought that was the future, now I think this is. Before I leave this planet, I will read some blog or some news story about humanitarian aid to Saudi Arabia, because nobody needs the only thing they have. I will also read about germany and japan being dependant on us and copying our technology once again, fuel freedom helps us more than anyone because its our achilles heel and we are uniquely positioned geographically to take advantage of the next wave. My grandkids haven’t even been born and they are already fatigued by my stories about how the U.S. was brought to her knees back in my day. I can hear it now “Grandpa, what is oil?” I know this to be true, what is blury is if there will be a raven haired beauty that will bring me a glass of wine, kiss me lovingly on the cheek as she hands me a glass and tells me not to scare the children and to save some of that passion for later when we are alone, one can only hope.

[scaredyclassic]

when you think about how different the world can be and has been in 20 year spans — from peace to unexpected global wars to sweeping depressions and etc…it makes you humble about thinking that the way things are now are the way things are going to be even a bit down the line.

external energy v. personal internal energy , I’d go for the latter.

of course in 20 years, really advanced sex robots will probably be the norm. They’re very loyal, in a way. here’s an important video about sex robots.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGSVYgcy24Q

[scaredyclassic]

when you think about how different the world can be and has been in 20 year spans — from peace to unexpected global wars to sweeping depressions and etc…it makes you humble about thinking that the way things are now are the way things are going to be even a bit down the line.

external energy v. personal internal energy , I’d go for the latter.

of course in 20 years, really advanced sex robots will probably be the norm. They’re very loyal, in a way. here’s an important video about sex robots.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGSVYgcy24Q

[scaredyclassic]

when you think about how different the world can be and has been in 20 year spans — from peace to unexpected global wars to sweeping depressions and etc…it makes you humble about thinking that the way things are now are the way things are going to be even a bit down the line.

external energy v. personal internal energy , I’d go for the latter.

of course in 20 years, really advanced sex robots will probably be the norm. They’re very loyal, in a way. here’s an important video about sex robots.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGSVYgcy24Q

[scaredyclassic]

when you think about how different the world can be and has been in 20 year spans — from peace to unexpected global wars to sweeping depressions and etc…it makes you humble about thinking that the way things are now are the way things are going to be even a bit down the line.

external energy v. personal internal energy , I’d go for the latter.

of course in 20 years, really advanced sex robots will probably be the norm. They’re very loyal, in a way. here’s an important video about sex robots.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGSVYgcy24Q

[scaredyclassic]

when you think about how different the world can be and has been in 20 year spans — from peace to unexpected global wars to sweeping depressions and etc…it makes you humble about thinking that the way things are now are the way things are going to be even a bit down the line.

external energy v. personal internal energy , I’d go for the latter.

of course in 20 years, really advanced sex robots will probably be the norm. They’re very loyal, in a way. here’s an important video about sex robots.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGSVYgcy24Q

[bearishgurl]

[quote=temeculaguy]BG-I used manahatan as an extreme example. There’s NYC and the midwest, everything else is on a sliding scale in between the two. Zoning plays a role too in that scale. Did you know that the city of poway is essentially built out and you cant knock down a house and build three condos there, like you can in San Diego. Even my own beloved Temecula is near build out. Zoning is what Shiller refers to as “land restricted.” It throws off the formula, much of So cal is strictly zoned, hence the silly prices and also why sdrealtor sees what he sees, not much land left for anyone to do what they please.[/quote]

TG, I could see the City of Poway now being built out but what about uninc Poway? Isn’t there land still left there or vacant lots (already subdivided) available for building (a SFR) on in that area?

I agree that CA, in general, has far more restrictive zoning than say, Texas, with huge swaths of nothing but flat land as far as the eye can see. Don’t you feel that CA’s restrictive zoning benefits every resident here? I don’t think the zoning is restrictive enough in the coastal counties, mostly due to recent “boom time” greed of cities and counties who saw new property tax dollars coming in to enable them to “hire up” (and then lay off when tax bills were all lowered due to the (more recent) bust :={

[bearishgurl]

[quote=temeculaguy]BG-I used manahatan as an extreme example. There’s NYC and the midwest, everything else is on a sliding scale in between the two. Zoning plays a role too in that scale. Did you know that the city of poway is essentially built out and you cant knock down a house and build three condos there, like you can in San Diego. Even my own beloved Temecula is near build out. Zoning is what Shiller refers to as “land restricted.” It throws off the formula, much of So cal is strictly zoned, hence the silly prices and also why sdrealtor sees what he sees, not much land left for anyone to do what they please.[/quote]

TG, I could see the City of Poway now being built out but what about uninc Poway? Isn’t there land still left there or vacant lots (already subdivided) available for building (a SFR) on in that area?

I agree that CA, in general, has far more restrictive zoning than say, Texas, with huge swaths of nothing but flat land as far as the eye can see. Don’t you feel that CA’s restrictive zoning benefits every resident here? I don’t think the zoning is restrictive enough in the coastal counties, mostly due to recent “boom time” greed of cities and counties who saw new property tax dollars coming in to enable them to “hire up” (and then lay off when tax bills were all lowered due to the (more recent) bust :={

[bearishgurl]

[quote=temeculaguy]BG-I used manahatan as an extreme example. There’s NYC and the midwest, everything else is on a sliding scale in between the two. Zoning plays a role too in that scale. Did you know that the city of poway is essentially built out and you cant knock down a house and build three condos there, like you can in San Diego. Even my own beloved Temecula is near build out. Zoning is what Shiller refers to as “land restricted.” It throws off the formula, much of So cal is strictly zoned, hence the silly prices and also why sdrealtor sees what he sees, not much land left for anyone to do what they please.[/quote]

TG, I could see the City of Poway now being built out but what about uninc Poway? Isn’t there land still left there or vacant lots (already subdivided) available for building (a SFR) on in that area?

I agree that CA, in general, has far more restrictive zoning than say, Texas, with huge swaths of nothing but flat land as far as the eye can see. Don’t you feel that CA’s restrictive zoning benefits every resident here? I don’t think the zoning is restrictive enough in the coastal counties, mostly due to recent “boom time” greed of cities and counties who saw new property tax dollars coming in to enable them to “hire up” (and then lay off when tax bills were all lowered due to the (more recent) bust :={

[bearishgurl]

[quote=temeculaguy]BG-I used manahatan as an extreme example. There’s NYC and the midwest, everything else is on a sliding scale in between the two. Zoning plays a role too in that scale. Did you know that the city of poway is essentially built out and you cant knock down a house and build three condos there, like you can in San Diego. Even my own beloved Temecula is near build out. Zoning is what Shiller refers to as “land restricted.” It throws off the formula, much of So cal is strictly zoned, hence the silly prices and also why sdrealtor sees what he sees, not much land left for anyone to do what they please.[/quote]

TG, I could see the City of Poway now being built out but what about uninc Poway? Isn’t there land still left there or vacant lots (already subdivided) available for building (a SFR) on in that area?

I agree that CA, in general, has far more restrictive zoning than say, Texas, with huge swaths of nothing but flat land as far as the eye can see. Don’t you feel that CA’s restrictive zoning benefits every resident here? I don’t think the zoning is restrictive enough in the coastal counties, mostly due to recent “boom time” greed of cities and counties who saw new property tax dollars coming in to enable them to “hire up” (and then lay off when tax bills were all lowered due to the (more recent) bust :={

[Author]

Posts