Robert Shiller – home prices could slide for 20 years?

[bearishgurl]

[quote=temeculaguy]BG-I used manahatan as an extreme example. There’s NYC and the midwest, everything else is on a sliding scale in between the two. Zoning plays a role too in that scale. Did you know that the city of poway is essentially built out and you cant knock down a house and build three condos there, like you can in San Diego. Even my own beloved Temecula is near build out. Zoning is what Shiller refers to as “land restricted.” It throws off the formula, much of So cal is strictly zoned, hence the silly prices and also why sdrealtor sees what he sees, not much land left for anyone to do what they please.[/quote]

TG, I could see the City of Poway now being built out but what about uninc Poway? Isn’t there land still left there or vacant lots (already subdivided) available for building (a SFR) on in that area?

I agree that CA, in general, has far more restrictive zoning than say, Texas, with huge swaths of nothing but flat land as far as the eye can see. Don’t you feel that CA’s restrictive zoning benefits every resident here? I don’t think the zoning is restrictive enough in the coastal counties, mostly due to recent “boom time” greed of cities and counties who saw new property tax dollars coming in to enable them to “hire up” (and then lay off when tax bills were all lowered due to the (more recent) bust :={

[sdrealtor]

Don’t quote me on this but i beleive the zoning in unicorporated areas of SD county is hugely restrictive. Something like 5 to 7 acre minimum lot sizes.

[sdrealtor]

Don’t quote me on this but i beleive the zoning in unicorporated areas of SD county is hugely restrictive. Something like 5 to 7 acre minimum lot sizes.

[sdrealtor]

Don’t quote me on this but i beleive the zoning in unicorporated areas of SD county is hugely restrictive. Something like 5 to 7 acre minimum lot sizes.

[sdrealtor]

Don’t quote me on this but i beleive the zoning in unicorporated areas of SD county is hugely restrictive. Something like 5 to 7 acre minimum lot sizes.

[sdrealtor]

Don’t quote me on this but i beleive the zoning in unicorporated areas of SD county is hugely restrictive. Something like 5 to 7 acre minimum lot sizes.

[briansd1]

BG, I think that your attitude about zoning is what causes sprawl. You don’t like spawl, but restrictive zoning causes sprawl.

The truth is that people want new houses without the headaches of remodeling and functionally obsolete floor plans and mechanicals.

There is no reason for large lots in the city. Let the owners easily sell and cash out, if they wish. New owners can build more dense units to accomodate the growing population.

Cities grow and change. You can’t freeze things in time.

[briansd1]

BG, I think that your attitude about zoning is what causes sprawl. You don’t like spawl, but restrictive zoning causes sprawl.

The truth is that people want new houses without the headaches of remodeling and functionally obsolete floor plans and mechanicals.

There is no reason for large lots in the city. Let the owners easily sell and cash out, if they wish. New owners can build more dense units to accomodate the growing population.

Cities grow and change. You can’t freeze things in time.

[briansd1]

BG, I think that your attitude about zoning is what causes sprawl. You don’t like spawl, but restrictive zoning causes sprawl.

The truth is that people want new houses without the headaches of remodeling and functionally obsolete floor plans and mechanicals.

There is no reason for large lots in the city. Let the owners easily sell and cash out, if they wish. New owners can build more dense units to accomodate the growing population.

Cities grow and change. You can’t freeze things in time.

[briansd1]

BG, I think that your attitude about zoning is what causes sprawl. You don’t like spawl, but restrictive zoning causes sprawl.

The truth is that people want new houses without the headaches of remodeling and functionally obsolete floor plans and mechanicals.

There is no reason for large lots in the city. Let the owners easily sell and cash out, if they wish. New owners can build more dense units to accomodate the growing population.

Cities grow and change. You can’t freeze things in time.

[briansd1]

BG, I think that your attitude about zoning is what causes sprawl. You don’t like spawl, but restrictive zoning causes sprawl.

The truth is that people want new houses without the headaches of remodeling and functionally obsolete floor plans and mechanicals.

There is no reason for large lots in the city. Let the owners easily sell and cash out, if they wish. New owners can build more dense units to accomodate the growing population.

Cities grow and change. You can’t freeze things in time.

[DaCounselor]

This country is littered with once-great neighborhoods that have declined for a variety of reasons. Neighborhoods where in their prime it was inconceivable to most that there could be such an eventual result. As it has been, as it always will be.

The wonderous built-out NYC, THE city post-WWII, began its decline in the 60’s and was significantly mired for at least 20 years until the resurgence of Wall St., though some would say it was mired for 30 years until Guiliani stepped in. Inconceivable. Now NYC is faced with its own RE bubble and a severe budget problem. NYC may be on the precipace of another great downturn.

Regarding coastal SD RE, haven’t attached homes devalued significantly? How can this be if the area is immune? Or is it only SFRs that are immune? Or only the very top 1% of SFRs with views and big lots and etc etc? What is the criteria to be immune?

Personally I beleive that in the end there will be plenty of suffering and devaluation to go around, including those who beleive they may be insulated because of their zip code, school rating or their view.

[DaCounselor]

This country is littered with once-great neighborhoods that have declined for a variety of reasons. Neighborhoods where in their prime it was inconceivable to most that there could be such an eventual result. As it has been, as it always will be.

The wonderous built-out NYC, THE city post-WWII, began its decline in the 60’s and was significantly mired for at least 20 years until the resurgence of Wall St., though some would say it was mired for 30 years until Guiliani stepped in. Inconceivable. Now NYC is faced with its own RE bubble and a severe budget problem. NYC may be on the precipace of another great downturn.

Regarding coastal SD RE, haven’t attached homes devalued significantly? How can this be if the area is immune? Or is it only SFRs that are immune? Or only the very top 1% of SFRs with views and big lots and etc etc? What is the criteria to be immune?

Personally I beleive that in the end there will be plenty of suffering and devaluation to go around, including those who beleive they may be insulated because of their zip code, school rating or their view.

[DaCounselor]

This country is littered with once-great neighborhoods that have declined for a variety of reasons. Neighborhoods where in their prime it was inconceivable to most that there could be such an eventual result. As it has been, as it always will be.

The wonderous built-out NYC, THE city post-WWII, began its decline in the 60’s and was significantly mired for at least 20 years until the resurgence of Wall St., though some would say it was mired for 30 years until Guiliani stepped in. Inconceivable. Now NYC is faced with its own RE bubble and a severe budget problem. NYC may be on the precipace of another great downturn.

Regarding coastal SD RE, haven’t attached homes devalued significantly? How can this be if the area is immune? Or is it only SFRs that are immune? Or only the very top 1% of SFRs with views and big lots and etc etc? What is the criteria to be immune?

Personally I beleive that in the end there will be plenty of suffering and devaluation to go around, including those who beleive they may be insulated because of their zip code, school rating or their view.

[DaCounselor]

This country is littered with once-great neighborhoods that have declined for a variety of reasons. Neighborhoods where in their prime it was inconceivable to most that there could be such an eventual result. As it has been, as it always will be.

The wonderous built-out NYC, THE city post-WWII, began its decline in the 60’s and was significantly mired for at least 20 years until the resurgence of Wall St., though some would say it was mired for 30 years until Guiliani stepped in. Inconceivable. Now NYC is faced with its own RE bubble and a severe budget problem. NYC may be on the precipace of another great downturn.

Regarding coastal SD RE, haven’t attached homes devalued significantly? How can this be if the area is immune? Or is it only SFRs that are immune? Or only the very top 1% of SFRs with views and big lots and etc etc? What is the criteria to be immune?

Personally I beleive that in the end there will be plenty of suffering and devaluation to go around, including those who beleive they may be insulated because of their zip code, school rating or their view.

[Author]

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