Robert Shiller – home prices could slide for 20 years?

[gandalf]

Question for those of us who believe inflation is ahead, do you think property and real estate investments will provide their traditional hedge against inflation in the years to come, shelter from the storm?

Housing market ratios and fundamentals remain largely out of balance. The economy and labor market remain weak. The job market is slow, hiring is modest, no wage inflation on the horizon. Wages fuel housing.

Also, many speculate inflation will arrive through some other mechanism, currency devaluation from a dollar crisis for example. Foreign countries are already beginning to denominate trade and debt in non-dollar currencies.

If such inflation / devaluation occurs — inflation without labor and wage growth, it would reduce household incomes. It would eviscerate savings. The average standard of living would decline even further.

Is the housing market perhaps risking a further collapse in prices?

[CA renter]

[quote=gandalf]Question for those of us who believe inflation is ahead, do you think property and real estate investments will provide their traditional hedge against inflation in the years to come, shelter from the storm?

Housing market ratios and fundamentals remain largely out of balance. The economy and labor market remain weak. The job market is slow, hiring is modest, no wage inflation on the horizon. Wages fuel housing.

Also, many speculate inflation will arrive through some other mechanism, currency devaluation from a dollar crisis for example. Foreign countries are already beginning to denominate trade and debt in non-dollar currencies.

If such inflation / devaluation occurs — inflation without labor and wage growth, it would reduce household incomes. It would eviscerate savings. The average standard of living would decline even further.

Is the housing market perhaps risking a further collapse in prices?[/quote]

Good questions, gandalf.

Personally, I’m a deflationist as far as U.S. consumers and wage growth are concerned. That being said, there is a definite threat of a currency crisis/devaluation, which would not enable local people to buy RE, but would enable foreigners with more valuable currency* to buy up all our assets.

Not sure how anyone can construe that as a positive, though. Americans will be hurting if it comes to pass.

*The currency question is a biggie. The Euro and the Yen are out, IMHO, and the only currency that exists in large enough supply would be the renmimbi. While they are trying to keep the value of their currency down now, I can see a situation (global currency crisis) when they might decide to let the value of their currency float, which would enable them to essentially buy up the world. It’s a bit far-fetched, but it’s what I would do if I were in their position.

[CA renter]

[quote=gandalf]Question for those of us who believe inflation is ahead, do you think property and real estate investments will provide their traditional hedge against inflation in the years to come, shelter from the storm?

Housing market ratios and fundamentals remain largely out of balance. The economy and labor market remain weak. The job market is slow, hiring is modest, no wage inflation on the horizon. Wages fuel housing.

Also, many speculate inflation will arrive through some other mechanism, currency devaluation from a dollar crisis for example. Foreign countries are already beginning to denominate trade and debt in non-dollar currencies.

If such inflation / devaluation occurs — inflation without labor and wage growth, it would reduce household incomes. It would eviscerate savings. The average standard of living would decline even further.

Is the housing market perhaps risking a further collapse in prices?[/quote]

Good questions, gandalf.

Personally, I’m a deflationist as far as U.S. consumers and wage growth are concerned. That being said, there is a definite threat of a currency crisis/devaluation, which would not enable local people to buy RE, but would enable foreigners with more valuable currency* to buy up all our assets.

Not sure how anyone can construe that as a positive, though. Americans will be hurting if it comes to pass.

*The currency question is a biggie. The Euro and the Yen are out, IMHO, and the only currency that exists in large enough supply would be the renmimbi. While they are trying to keep the value of their currency down now, I can see a situation (global currency crisis) when they might decide to let the value of their currency float, which would enable them to essentially buy up the world. It’s a bit far-fetched, but it’s what I would do if I were in their position.

[CA renter]

[quote=gandalf]Question for those of us who believe inflation is ahead, do you think property and real estate investments will provide their traditional hedge against inflation in the years to come, shelter from the storm?

Housing market ratios and fundamentals remain largely out of balance. The economy and labor market remain weak. The job market is slow, hiring is modest, no wage inflation on the horizon. Wages fuel housing.

Also, many speculate inflation will arrive through some other mechanism, currency devaluation from a dollar crisis for example. Foreign countries are already beginning to denominate trade and debt in non-dollar currencies.

If such inflation / devaluation occurs — inflation without labor and wage growth, it would reduce household incomes. It would eviscerate savings. The average standard of living would decline even further.

Is the housing market perhaps risking a further collapse in prices?[/quote]

Good questions, gandalf.

Personally, I’m a deflationist as far as U.S. consumers and wage growth are concerned. That being said, there is a definite threat of a currency crisis/devaluation, which would not enable local people to buy RE, but would enable foreigners with more valuable currency* to buy up all our assets.

Not sure how anyone can construe that as a positive, though. Americans will be hurting if it comes to pass.

*The currency question is a biggie. The Euro and the Yen are out, IMHO, and the only currency that exists in large enough supply would be the renmimbi. While they are trying to keep the value of their currency down now, I can see a situation (global currency crisis) when they might decide to let the value of their currency float, which would enable them to essentially buy up the world. It’s a bit far-fetched, but it’s what I would do if I were in their position.

[CA renter]

[quote=gandalf]Question for those of us who believe inflation is ahead, do you think property and real estate investments will provide their traditional hedge against inflation in the years to come, shelter from the storm?

Housing market ratios and fundamentals remain largely out of balance. The economy and labor market remain weak. The job market is slow, hiring is modest, no wage inflation on the horizon. Wages fuel housing.

Also, many speculate inflation will arrive through some other mechanism, currency devaluation from a dollar crisis for example. Foreign countries are already beginning to denominate trade and debt in non-dollar currencies.

If such inflation / devaluation occurs — inflation without labor and wage growth, it would reduce household incomes. It would eviscerate savings. The average standard of living would decline even further.

Is the housing market perhaps risking a further collapse in prices?[/quote]

Good questions, gandalf.

Personally, I’m a deflationist as far as U.S. consumers and wage growth are concerned. That being said, there is a definite threat of a currency crisis/devaluation, which would not enable local people to buy RE, but would enable foreigners with more valuable currency* to buy up all our assets.

Not sure how anyone can construe that as a positive, though. Americans will be hurting if it comes to pass.

*The currency question is a biggie. The Euro and the Yen are out, IMHO, and the only currency that exists in large enough supply would be the renmimbi. While they are trying to keep the value of their currency down now, I can see a situation (global currency crisis) when they might decide to let the value of their currency float, which would enable them to essentially buy up the world. It’s a bit far-fetched, but it’s what I would do if I were in their position.

[CA renter]

[quote=gandalf]Question for those of us who believe inflation is ahead, do you think property and real estate investments will provide their traditional hedge against inflation in the years to come, shelter from the storm?

Housing market ratios and fundamentals remain largely out of balance. The economy and labor market remain weak. The job market is slow, hiring is modest, no wage inflation on the horizon. Wages fuel housing.

Also, many speculate inflation will arrive through some other mechanism, currency devaluation from a dollar crisis for example. Foreign countries are already beginning to denominate trade and debt in non-dollar currencies.

If such inflation / devaluation occurs — inflation without labor and wage growth, it would reduce household incomes. It would eviscerate savings. The average standard of living would decline even further.

Is the housing market perhaps risking a further collapse in prices?[/quote]

Good questions, gandalf.

Personally, I’m a deflationist as far as U.S. consumers and wage growth are concerned. That being said, there is a definite threat of a currency crisis/devaluation, which would not enable local people to buy RE, but would enable foreigners with more valuable currency* to buy up all our assets.

Not sure how anyone can construe that as a positive, though. Americans will be hurting if it comes to pass.

*The currency question is a biggie. The Euro and the Yen are out, IMHO, and the only currency that exists in large enough supply would be the renmimbi. While they are trying to keep the value of their currency down now, I can see a situation (global currency crisis) when they might decide to let the value of their currency float, which would enable them to essentially buy up the world. It’s a bit far-fetched, but it’s what I would do if I were in their position.

[Jazzman]

I think the index is invaluable, but his interviews are sometimes hard to pair with the apparent awe in which the man himself is held. He must be aware that the media will lock onto such headline grabbing statements. So why make them, or get drawn into making them? He’s either a bit daft, a perma-bear, or is just having fun playing cat and mouse with the media.

[Jazzman]

I think the index is invaluable, but his interviews are sometimes hard to pair with the apparent awe in which the man himself is held. He must be aware that the media will lock onto such headline grabbing statements. So why make them, or get drawn into making them? He’s either a bit daft, a perma-bear, or is just having fun playing cat and mouse with the media.

[Jazzman]

I think the index is invaluable, but his interviews are sometimes hard to pair with the apparent awe in which the man himself is held. He must be aware that the media will lock onto such headline grabbing statements. So why make them, or get drawn into making them? He’s either a bit daft, a perma-bear, or is just having fun playing cat and mouse with the media.

[Jazzman]

I think the index is invaluable, but his interviews are sometimes hard to pair with the apparent awe in which the man himself is held. He must be aware that the media will lock onto such headline grabbing statements. So why make them, or get drawn into making them? He’s either a bit daft, a perma-bear, or is just having fun playing cat and mouse with the media.

[Jazzman]

I think the index is invaluable, but his interviews are sometimes hard to pair with the apparent awe in which the man himself is held. He must be aware that the media will lock onto such headline grabbing statements. So why make them, or get drawn into making them? He’s either a bit daft, a perma-bear, or is just having fun playing cat and mouse with the media.

[Arraya]

[quote=CA renter]

*The currency question is a biggie. The Euro and the Yen are out, IMHO, and the only currency that exists in large enough supply would be the renmimbi. While they are trying to keep the value of their currency down now, I can see a situation (global currency crisis) when they might decide to let the value of their currency float, which would enable them to essentially buy up the world. It’s a bit far-fetched, but it’s what I would do if I were in their position.[/quote]

I would say a massive wealth concentration situation will present itself in the near future. How it manifests should be interesting.

[Arraya]

[quote=CA renter]

*The currency question is a biggie. The Euro and the Yen are out, IMHO, and the only currency that exists in large enough supply would be the renmimbi. While they are trying to keep the value of their currency down now, I can see a situation (global currency crisis) when they might decide to let the value of their currency float, which would enable them to essentially buy up the world. It’s a bit far-fetched, but it’s what I would do if I were in their position.[/quote]

I would say a massive wealth concentration situation will present itself in the near future. How it manifests should be interesting.

[Arraya]

[quote=CA renter]

*The currency question is a biggie. The Euro and the Yen are out, IMHO, and the only currency that exists in large enough supply would be the renmimbi. While they are trying to keep the value of their currency down now, I can see a situation (global currency crisis) when they might decide to let the value of their currency float, which would enable them to essentially buy up the world. It’s a bit far-fetched, but it’s what I would do if I were in their position.[/quote]

I would say a massive wealth concentration situation will present itself in the near future. How it manifests should be interesting.

[Arraya]

[quote=CA renter]

*The currency question is a biggie. The Euro and the Yen are out, IMHO, and the only currency that exists in large enough supply would be the renmimbi. While they are trying to keep the value of their currency down now, I can see a situation (global currency crisis) when they might decide to let the value of their currency float, which would enable them to essentially buy up the world. It’s a bit far-fetched, but it’s what I would do if I were in their position.[/quote]

I would say a massive wealth concentration situation will present itself in the near future. How it manifests should be interesting.

[Author]

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