Recession 2020

[Coronita]

Ok, Boomer. If you say so.

Lol.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-report-november-2019-labor-department-225145709.html

If there’s a Christmas rally, that might just perfectly line up for me to buy another condo in January, lol.

[burghMan]

From spdrun:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/private-sector-job-growth-slows-down-in-november—adp-2019-12-04

The numbers: Private-sector employment slowed sharply in November, payroll processor ADP said Wednesday. Job growth rose 67,000 in the month., the smallest increase since May. The gain was well below forecasts from economists surveyed by Econoday who expected a gain of 156,000.

From flu:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-report-november-2019-labor-department-225145709.html

The private sector on the whole added 254,000 positions during the month, well above the 178,000 consensus and 163,000 added in October. This result contrasted sharply with the weaker than expected results of ADP/Moody’s report on private sector employment published earlier this week, though many economists have pointed out that the survey serves as an imperfect indicator of the Department of Labor’s jobs report.

Weird that the numbers have such a huge discrepancy. I don’t think the US government typically fakes data, but if any administration was going to to it, which one would it be?

[Coronita]

.

[Coronita]

Don’t worry. In 2020 there won’t be a recession. Remember, AOC and the Green Deal will drive unemployment down to 0.0% because everyone who wants a high paying job will get a high paying job… skill/experience/knowledge/knowhow completely optional. Just like all those shovel ready green jobs promised from the previous administration. Where’s Solyndra again?

Funny, some people thought the previous administration also doctored up the job numbers too, when they didn’t like the previous administration too.

But hey, folks that sat out of the markets in 2019 thinking the world was ending:

I see a lot of winners this year, especially all the Qualcomm employees living in SD, seeing their RSUs and ESPP shares rocket from the low 50ies to the 80ies after QC settled with Apple,lol. Senior software engineers with a paystub showing $200k in total comps this year YTD after the stock grant vests…renting a $1550-1600/month condo, lol. Im happy for them and their lucky windfall. Now I believe it when someone said some of the larger condo complexes now have an minimum income requirement of $100k/year for a 1/1. Sad, but apparently true.

[burghMan]

AOC, again?

I think I know who your crush is 😉

[FlyerInHi]

Flu, did you graduate high school?
You keep on committing the fallacy of composition. Whenever the discussion is about a general subject you don’t agree with or don’t like, you switch to “taladilada, my situation is so good, because I’m so smart”. That may be true, but your personal situation is not the economy.

[Coronita]

[quote=burghMan]AOC, again?

I think I know who your crush is ;-)[/quote]

Well,given Harris dropped out after a pathetic, but predictable low support…

1 down, 3 crazies to go.

Our financial future is already slightly better off.

But I think I figured out why some folks are so married to the idea of a great 2020 recession. Short of a great 2020 recession or big market correction, history says incumbent keeps the office, especially when almost every D candidate has the word “raising taxes” out of his/her mouth frequently. That’s a losing strategy right there.

Meanwhile, Dow up 300. lol.

[The-Shoveler]

Saying you want to implement nation wide rent-control does not really gain you a lot of support from property owners.

Or anyone not wanting to live in government housing projects.

[spdrun]

The taxes should be labeled premiums, I.e. 90% of the population will pay a health insurance premium that’s lower than their current premium…

[burghMan]

[quote=flu]Our financial future is already slightly better off.[/quote]

That depends on who you mean when you say “our” future.

Most of us on this site are upper-middle class and work in secure industries like tech. We have bigger cushions, enjoy the benefits of economic upswings, and are less affected by downturns. Not everyone in America has that luxury. In fact most do not. (Most Americans don’t even know what RSU and ESPP mean.)

I don’t anticipate a “great” recession in 2020 but I think the economy will slow down in the next few years. If for no other reason because a downturn is due in the cycle.

I think it will be interesting to see how the “good” economy affects voters’ choices. Although the traditional numbers like unemployment and the stock market look good I think there are structural changes in the economy that affect how these numbers translate into better well-being for mainstream Americans. Jobs are now lower quality, costs of housing and healthcare is growing faster than wages, debt is accumulating, more homes have both spouses working because they have to. The financial reports are telling America that we are better off but I suspect many outside of our comfy world of tech don’t really feel it (probably more true in Red and swing states also)

Of course Trump is indifferent to how individual Americans are actually doing. He sees the economy as a scoreboard in a game that he has to win. But I don’t think this scoreboard always translates to real economic security for the average American. And, aside from the tax cuts which were funded by debt, what has Trump actually changed in the economy?

The election will come down to whether the economy can stay “good” and how many people believe Trump deserves credit for it being good. The Dow is up 300 today, but it was down just as much a few days ago when Trump announced that he isn’t going to have one of his signature campaign promises, the China trade deal, fulfilled until after the next election.

Are Americans gullible enough to give Trump another four years to accomplish what he promised us he would easily do in his first 100 days? Are they ignorant enough to believe that he actually has a plan for the economy that is in their best interest? Do they believe he is capable of executing this plan while working with an administration that is in tatters, partisan gridlock that he constantly incites, and foreign leaders that openly ridicule him?

It’s crazy to watch, but our country may be duped again by the most obvious of charlatans.

[Coronita]

burghMan
You know, I realized I actually enjoy talking to you, because I can’t say I disagree with much you are saying.

[quote=burghMan]

That depends on who you mean when you say “our” future.

Most of us on this site are upper-middle class and work in secure industries like tech. We have bigger cushions, enjoy the benefits of economic upswings, and are less affected by downturns. Not everyone in America has that luxury. In fact most do not. (Most Americans don’t even know what RSU and ESPP mean.)

[/quote]

I agree with you. But reality is, especially in CA, middle class and below is already fvcked, even before a recession. Someone working minimum wage can barely afford housing here if they are starting out, let alone the rest of the CA sunshine tax on everything else. That’s not going change either way. Those extra gas taxes we pay, hurts middle class and lower than all these upper-income class people that can afford to buy a new Tesla. Getting rid of natural gas as a fuel for household and forcing an all-electric house is not going to help middle class and lower barely scraping by to redo their house to be more green, as proposed… And passing a “no school before 8:30am” certainly is not going to help middle class and lower workers that have to go “work” by a set time (ok, this last one is a stretch and not necessarily economically an issue). And trying to mandate a statewide rent control is just going to make it more difficult for people to find housing as I’m sure there are so many blowbacks from that decision.

[quote]
I don’t anticipate a “great” recession in 2020 but I think the economy will slow down in the next few years. If for no other reason because a downturn is due in the cycle.
[/quote]

Agreed, i think there will be some pullback in the future. Don’t know if it will be exactly in 2020, or more precisely in 2020 right before where it would sway votes.

[quote]
I think it will be interesting to see how the “good” economy affects voters’ choices. Although the traditional numbers like unemployment and the stock market look good I think there are structural changes in the economy that affect how these numbers translate into better well-being for mainstream Americans. Jobs are now lower quality, costs of housing and healthcare is growing faster than wages, debt is accumulating, more homes have both spouses working because they have to. The financial reports are telling America that we are better off but I suspect many outside of our comfy world of tech don’t really feel it (probably more true in Red and swing states also)
[/quote]

The average voter is dumb. They see their tax refund as “I’m doing better because now I have more to spend”..California is warped because we have such a large dependency on tech, so we will naturally feel we are doing better than other people in other states, except the ones not in tech or professionals, and those people will probably end up getting squeezed out of this state.

[quote]

Of course Trump is indifferent to how individual Americans are actually doing. He sees the economy as a scoreboard in a game that he has to win. But I don’t think this scoreboard always translates to real economic security for the average American. And, aside from the tax cuts which were funded by debt, what has Trump actually changed in the economy?
[/quote]

Of course. Agreed. Trump really isn’t doing that much for the economy. Neither did his predecessor. Who made a difference? Bernanke and Yellen, lol.

[quote]
The election will come down to whether the economy can stay “good” and how many people believe Trump deserves credit for it being good. The Dow is up 300 today, but it was down just as much a few days ago when Trump announced that he isn’t going to have one of his signature campaign promises, the China trade deal, fulfilled until after the next election.
[/quote]

Agreed

[quote]
Are Americans gullible enough to give Trump another four years to accomplish what he promised us he would easily do in his first 100 days? Are they ignorant enough to believe that he actually has a plan for the economy that is in their best interest? Do they believe he is capable of executing this plan while working with an administration that is in tatters, partisan gridlock that he constantly incites, and foreign leaders that openly ridicule him?

It’s crazy to watch, but our country may be duped again by the most obvious of charlatans.[/quote]

Yes most are that gullible, and most will be duped..Just in as much people believed in Obama’s hope and change…twice….

Americans will never believe the president, regardless of which person from which side, will never really fix their economic/financial problems.

[FlyerInHi]

Flu, unprompted, out of nowhere, you bitch about California much. Remember “love it or leave it.”

If anyone bitched that much about the USA, you may say “don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.”

[Coronita]

https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/institutional/researchcommentary/article/InvComVEMOGlobal

[PCinSD]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Flu, unprompted, out of nowhere, you bitch about California much. Remember “love it or leave it.”

If anyone bitched that much about the USA, you may say “don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.”[/quote]
You should cry more.

[Coronita]

[quote=PCinSD][quote=FlyerInHi]Flu, unprompted, out of nowhere, you bitch about California much. Remember “love it or leave it.”

If anyone bitched that much about the USA, you may say “don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.”[/quote]
You should cry more.[/quote]

Lol. I didn’t even see what Brian said until you quoted it.
But it’s funny. I’m not at all complaining of all these changes in CA because none of these changes are affecting me personally. It’s what I hear at at the malls or the stores or waiting in line, whether it’s the cashier complaining about how his/her hours have been cut by his employer to keep them even more part time, to some of them complaining they can’t find a place to live anywhere nearby because landlords have a $100k income requirement to rent a 1/1. To people complaining at the pumps about the high gas prices, while as my Valero stock (VLO) has done also very well on my account and my kids custodian account, bought at $25/share a few years ago. Nice dividend too. So I’m not sure why Brian thinks I am complaining, because financially things have been great for me.

One thing I did notice. Brian seems to have started swearing more on piggington. You mad, bro?

[Author]

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