Any price drops in Scripps ranch and carmel valley?

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No, I don’t own in one of these communities and don’t work for Pardee. I just find it interesting that these new developments continue to be strong in the wake of most other parts of San Diego.

All four of the Saratoga houses are now in pending status. It will be interesting to see the closing prices but they weren’t on the market all that long to expect a huge difference from the list price.

Pardees prices on Derby Hill haven’t gone down and they continue to sell out new releases in a matter of days as recently as 2/23. Any thoughts on why these are staying so strong?

[SD Realtor]

Ilovecv –

Since I have been gathering lots of stats lately I did the same thing for CV… Data never lies. Sometimes it can be presented to hide things and other times anamolies need to be investigated because they can skew the data. However the data for resale CV homes is pretty straightforward. One thing that has become apparent to me is that the areas of strength have reduced losses simply due to lack of distress. Even in the absence of that distress you can see from the stats below that indeed, resale detached homes in CV are coming up on 15% below the highs in 2006.

If you look at my Saturday Night Stats post you can see some really interesting data from different areas to compare to. The thing that I am picking up is that in the absence of distress we are still indeed seeing depreciation. It takes the form of lower volume at first, and then after a year or two of reduced volume the cracks form and people do give in and sell at a lower price. As distress comes to light the process accelerates.

In the absence of distress CV will drift down slowly. Definitely single digits per year however at some point there will be distress for some. Perhaps not close to the numbers we see in Eastlake but I think it will happen.

Remember, I am one of those in the camp that does indeed believe different regions will find different floors at different times. I don’t believe any area is impervious to the declines though.

*******

As to new homes like Saratoga or Derby Hills, I am not so sure that is a fair comparison. No reseller can compete against a developer. Indeed those homes will sell and they will sell in a quick timeframe.

Data for 92130 resale of detached homes is below. If I included attached homes it would look much worse for the median

92130

2/1/01 – 3/1/01 30 sales, median price 674,913
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 52 sales, median price 711,094
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 41 sales, median price 824,466
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 29 sales, median price 979,950
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 30 sales, median price 1,160,533
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 21 sales, median price 1,189,619
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 31 sales, median price 1,017,023
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 19 sales, median price 954,670

[SD Realtor]

Ilovecv –

Since I have been gathering lots of stats lately I did the same thing for CV… Data never lies. Sometimes it can be presented to hide things and other times anamolies need to be investigated because they can skew the data. However the data for resale CV homes is pretty straightforward. One thing that has become apparent to me is that the areas of strength have reduced losses simply due to lack of distress. Even in the absence of that distress you can see from the stats below that indeed, resale detached homes in CV are coming up on 15% below the highs in 2006.

If you look at my Saturday Night Stats post you can see some really interesting data from different areas to compare to. The thing that I am picking up is that in the absence of distress we are still indeed seeing depreciation. It takes the form of lower volume at first, and then after a year or two of reduced volume the cracks form and people do give in and sell at a lower price. As distress comes to light the process accelerates.

In the absence of distress CV will drift down slowly. Definitely single digits per year however at some point there will be distress for some. Perhaps not close to the numbers we see in Eastlake but I think it will happen.

Remember, I am one of those in the camp that does indeed believe different regions will find different floors at different times. I don’t believe any area is impervious to the declines though.

*******

As to new homes like Saratoga or Derby Hills, I am not so sure that is a fair comparison. No reseller can compete against a developer. Indeed those homes will sell and they will sell in a quick timeframe.

Data for 92130 resale of detached homes is below. If I included attached homes it would look much worse for the median

92130

2/1/01 – 3/1/01 30 sales, median price 674,913
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 52 sales, median price 711,094
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 41 sales, median price 824,466
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 29 sales, median price 979,950
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 30 sales, median price 1,160,533
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 21 sales, median price 1,189,619
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 31 sales, median price 1,017,023
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 19 sales, median price 954,670

[SD Realtor]

Ilovecv –

Since I have been gathering lots of stats lately I did the same thing for CV… Data never lies. Sometimes it can be presented to hide things and other times anamolies need to be investigated because they can skew the data. However the data for resale CV homes is pretty straightforward. One thing that has become apparent to me is that the areas of strength have reduced losses simply due to lack of distress. Even in the absence of that distress you can see from the stats below that indeed, resale detached homes in CV are coming up on 15% below the highs in 2006.

If you look at my Saturday Night Stats post you can see some really interesting data from different areas to compare to. The thing that I am picking up is that in the absence of distress we are still indeed seeing depreciation. It takes the form of lower volume at first, and then after a year or two of reduced volume the cracks form and people do give in and sell at a lower price. As distress comes to light the process accelerates.

In the absence of distress CV will drift down slowly. Definitely single digits per year however at some point there will be distress for some. Perhaps not close to the numbers we see in Eastlake but I think it will happen.

Remember, I am one of those in the camp that does indeed believe different regions will find different floors at different times. I don’t believe any area is impervious to the declines though.

*******

As to new homes like Saratoga or Derby Hills, I am not so sure that is a fair comparison. No reseller can compete against a developer. Indeed those homes will sell and they will sell in a quick timeframe.

Data for 92130 resale of detached homes is below. If I included attached homes it would look much worse for the median

92130

2/1/01 – 3/1/01 30 sales, median price 674,913
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 52 sales, median price 711,094
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 41 sales, median price 824,466
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 29 sales, median price 979,950
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 30 sales, median price 1,160,533
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 21 sales, median price 1,189,619
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 31 sales, median price 1,017,023
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 19 sales, median price 954,670

[SD Realtor]

Ilovecv –

Since I have been gathering lots of stats lately I did the same thing for CV… Data never lies. Sometimes it can be presented to hide things and other times anamolies need to be investigated because they can skew the data. However the data for resale CV homes is pretty straightforward. One thing that has become apparent to me is that the areas of strength have reduced losses simply due to lack of distress. Even in the absence of that distress you can see from the stats below that indeed, resale detached homes in CV are coming up on 15% below the highs in 2006.

If you look at my Saturday Night Stats post you can see some really interesting data from different areas to compare to. The thing that I am picking up is that in the absence of distress we are still indeed seeing depreciation. It takes the form of lower volume at first, and then after a year or two of reduced volume the cracks form and people do give in and sell at a lower price. As distress comes to light the process accelerates.

In the absence of distress CV will drift down slowly. Definitely single digits per year however at some point there will be distress for some. Perhaps not close to the numbers we see in Eastlake but I think it will happen.

Remember, I am one of those in the camp that does indeed believe different regions will find different floors at different times. I don’t believe any area is impervious to the declines though.

*******

As to new homes like Saratoga or Derby Hills, I am not so sure that is a fair comparison. No reseller can compete against a developer. Indeed those homes will sell and they will sell in a quick timeframe.

Data for 92130 resale of detached homes is below. If I included attached homes it would look much worse for the median

92130

2/1/01 – 3/1/01 30 sales, median price 674,913
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 52 sales, median price 711,094
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 41 sales, median price 824,466
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 29 sales, median price 979,950
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 30 sales, median price 1,160,533
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 21 sales, median price 1,189,619
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 31 sales, median price 1,017,023
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 19 sales, median price 954,670

[SD Realtor]

Ilovecv –

Since I have been gathering lots of stats lately I did the same thing for CV… Data never lies. Sometimes it can be presented to hide things and other times anamolies need to be investigated because they can skew the data. However the data for resale CV homes is pretty straightforward. One thing that has become apparent to me is that the areas of strength have reduced losses simply due to lack of distress. Even in the absence of that distress you can see from the stats below that indeed, resale detached homes in CV are coming up on 15% below the highs in 2006.

If you look at my Saturday Night Stats post you can see some really interesting data from different areas to compare to. The thing that I am picking up is that in the absence of distress we are still indeed seeing depreciation. It takes the form of lower volume at first, and then after a year or two of reduced volume the cracks form and people do give in and sell at a lower price. As distress comes to light the process accelerates.

In the absence of distress CV will drift down slowly. Definitely single digits per year however at some point there will be distress for some. Perhaps not close to the numbers we see in Eastlake but I think it will happen.

Remember, I am one of those in the camp that does indeed believe different regions will find different floors at different times. I don’t believe any area is impervious to the declines though.

*******

As to new homes like Saratoga or Derby Hills, I am not so sure that is a fair comparison. No reseller can compete against a developer. Indeed those homes will sell and they will sell in a quick timeframe.

Data for 92130 resale of detached homes is below. If I included attached homes it would look much worse for the median

92130

2/1/01 – 3/1/01 30 sales, median price 674,913
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 52 sales, median price 711,094
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 41 sales, median price 824,466
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 29 sales, median price 979,950
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 30 sales, median price 1,160,533
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 21 sales, median price 1,189,619
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 31 sales, median price 1,017,023
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 19 sales, median price 954,670

[Sandi Egan]

I think the main downforce for areas like CV, LJ and others is the price decline in nearby zip codes. If you can buy similar house one freeway exit away and it will cost you 30-40% less, you’ve GOT to consider that.
Prices in Penasquitos, Encinitas, Mira Mesa and other areas will eventually pull CV prices down. That, apparently, does take time.

[Sandi Egan]

I think the main downforce for areas like CV, LJ and others is the price decline in nearby zip codes. If you can buy similar house one freeway exit away and it will cost you 30-40% less, you’ve GOT to consider that.
Prices in Penasquitos, Encinitas, Mira Mesa and other areas will eventually pull CV prices down. That, apparently, does take time.

[Sandi Egan]

I think the main downforce for areas like CV, LJ and others is the price decline in nearby zip codes. If you can buy similar house one freeway exit away and it will cost you 30-40% less, you’ve GOT to consider that.
Prices in Penasquitos, Encinitas, Mira Mesa and other areas will eventually pull CV prices down. That, apparently, does take time.

[Sandi Egan]

I think the main downforce for areas like CV, LJ and others is the price decline in nearby zip codes. If you can buy similar house one freeway exit away and it will cost you 30-40% less, you’ve GOT to consider that.
Prices in Penasquitos, Encinitas, Mira Mesa and other areas will eventually pull CV prices down. That, apparently, does take time.

[Sandi Egan]

I think the main downforce for areas like CV, LJ and others is the price decline in nearby zip codes. If you can buy similar house one freeway exit away and it will cost you 30-40% less, you’ve GOT to consider that.
Prices in Penasquitos, Encinitas, Mira Mesa and other areas will eventually pull CV prices down. That, apparently, does take time.

[sdnerd]

Re: Sandi

At least one consideration, amongst many:

One freeway exit away often means a different school district. So, for example Mira Mesa is just a few minutes away from CV – the reality is it’s night and day difference in terms of schools. You also won’t find many Asian gangs in CV, etc.

Now, whether or not that’s worth a 10%, 20%, 30%, etc price premium is up for debate. But I do believe that’s a big factor and will help keep prices propped up.

[sdnerd]

Re: Sandi

At least one consideration, amongst many:

One freeway exit away often means a different school district. So, for example Mira Mesa is just a few minutes away from CV – the reality is it’s night and day difference in terms of schools. You also won’t find many Asian gangs in CV, etc.

Now, whether or not that’s worth a 10%, 20%, 30%, etc price premium is up for debate. But I do believe that’s a big factor and will help keep prices propped up.

[sdnerd]

Re: Sandi

At least one consideration, amongst many:

One freeway exit away often means a different school district. So, for example Mira Mesa is just a few minutes away from CV – the reality is it’s night and day difference in terms of schools. You also won’t find many Asian gangs in CV, etc.

Now, whether or not that’s worth a 10%, 20%, 30%, etc price premium is up for debate. But I do believe that’s a big factor and will help keep prices propped up.

[sdnerd]

Re: Sandi

At least one consideration, amongst many:

One freeway exit away often means a different school district. So, for example Mira Mesa is just a few minutes away from CV – the reality is it’s night and day difference in terms of schools. You also won’t find many Asian gangs in CV, etc.

Now, whether or not that’s worth a 10%, 20%, 30%, etc price premium is up for debate. But I do believe that’s a big factor and will help keep prices propped up.

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