Any price drops in Scripps ranch and carmel valley?

[Anonymous]

I realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn’t the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? Have you guys/gals gone to http://www.beaconecon.com and checked out the latest posting of the economist Dr. Christopher Thornberg. He was at UCLA and started his own forecasting firm. He has some recent SD specific presentations on his website. He is predicting prices will bottom out in Q3 of 2010, with peak to trough declines of 38%.

[Coronita]

realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn't the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? 

 

Yes, I think most people agree with you. It will just take longer, because in areas like CV, SR, LJ, there's more financially sound people than other areas…But in time, all areas get affected to some degree. It will be interesting as we move forward who will "have to sell".

I predict we'll get a lot more "have to sell" in newer communities than older frankly, because I suspect a lot more folks with questionable finances exist in more recent buyers than older buyers, and hence more in newer communities.  But time will tell. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn't the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? 

 

Yes, I think most people agree with you. It will just take longer, because in areas like CV, SR, LJ, there's more financially sound people than other areas…But in time, all areas get affected to some degree. It will be interesting as we move forward who will "have to sell".

I predict we'll get a lot more "have to sell" in newer communities than older frankly, because I suspect a lot more folks with questionable finances exist in more recent buyers than older buyers, and hence more in newer communities.  But time will tell. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn't the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? 

 

Yes, I think most people agree with you. It will just take longer, because in areas like CV, SR, LJ, there's more financially sound people than other areas…But in time, all areas get affected to some degree. It will be interesting as we move forward who will "have to sell".

I predict we'll get a lot more "have to sell" in newer communities than older frankly, because I suspect a lot more folks with questionable finances exist in more recent buyers than older buyers, and hence more in newer communities.  But time will tell. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn't the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? 

 

Yes, I think most people agree with you. It will just take longer, because in areas like CV, SR, LJ, there's more financially sound people than other areas…But in time, all areas get affected to some degree. It will be interesting as we move forward who will "have to sell".

I predict we'll get a lot more "have to sell" in newer communities than older frankly, because I suspect a lot more folks with questionable finances exist in more recent buyers than older buyers, and hence more in newer communities.  But time will tell. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn't the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? 

 

Yes, I think most people agree with you. It will just take longer, because in areas like CV, SR, LJ, there's more financially sound people than other areas…But in time, all areas get affected to some degree. It will be interesting as we move forward who will "have to sell".

I predict we'll get a lot more "have to sell" in newer communities than older frankly, because I suspect a lot more folks with questionable finances exist in more recent buyers than older buyers, and hence more in newer communities.  But time will tell. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[SD Realtor]

Completely agree with you FLU. Not a question of if, just when. Those with patience will be rewarded but don’t expect it to happen overnight. Give it a year or 2-3.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Completely agree with you FLU. Not a question of if, just when. Those with patience will be rewarded but don’t expect it to happen overnight. Give it a year or 2-3.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Completely agree with you FLU. Not a question of if, just when. Those with patience will be rewarded but don’t expect it to happen overnight. Give it a year or 2-3.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Completely agree with you FLU. Not a question of if, just when. Those with patience will be rewarded but don’t expect it to happen overnight. Give it a year or 2-3.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Completely agree with you FLU. Not a question of if, just when. Those with patience will be rewarded but don’t expect it to happen overnight. Give it a year or 2-3.

SD Realtor

[[email protected]]

No, I don’t own in one of these communities and don’t work for Pardee. I just find it interesting that these new developments continue to be strong in the wake of most other parts of San Diego.

All four of the Saratoga houses are now in pending status. It will be interesting to see the closing prices but they weren’t on the market all that long to expect a huge difference from the list price.

Pardees prices on Derby Hill haven’t gone down and they continue to sell out new releases in a matter of days as recently as 2/23. Any thoughts on why these are staying so strong?

[[email protected]]

No, I don’t own in one of these communities and don’t work for Pardee. I just find it interesting that these new developments continue to be strong in the wake of most other parts of San Diego.

All four of the Saratoga houses are now in pending status. It will be interesting to see the closing prices but they weren’t on the market all that long to expect a huge difference from the list price.

Pardees prices on Derby Hill haven’t gone down and they continue to sell out new releases in a matter of days as recently as 2/23. Any thoughts on why these are staying so strong?

[[email protected]]

No, I don’t own in one of these communities and don’t work for Pardee. I just find it interesting that these new developments continue to be strong in the wake of most other parts of San Diego.

All four of the Saratoga houses are now in pending status. It will be interesting to see the closing prices but they weren’t on the market all that long to expect a huge difference from the list price.

Pardees prices on Derby Hill haven’t gone down and they continue to sell out new releases in a matter of days as recently as 2/23. Any thoughts on why these are staying so strong?

[[email protected]]

No, I don’t own in one of these communities and don’t work for Pardee. I just find it interesting that these new developments continue to be strong in the wake of most other parts of San Diego.

All four of the Saratoga houses are now in pending status. It will be interesting to see the closing prices but they weren’t on the market all that long to expect a huge difference from the list price.

Pardees prices on Derby Hill haven’t gone down and they continue to sell out new releases in a matter of days as recently as 2/23. Any thoughts on why these are staying so strong?

[Author]

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