Any price drops in Scripps ranch and carmel valley?

[[email protected]]

On what data are you basing your opinion?

[SD Realtor]

Hi Newbiz,

I would agree with what the others said about CV with regards to it coming down. In general CV is still stuck in ultra sticky mode because it is a desired destination but I do feel it has come down. Not much distress there though.

As far as Scripps goes I am just as frustrated. Essentially the 11494 Winding Ridge property that is in escrow right now is selling at a 2003 price level for that west side of Scripps that you are on, up on the hill. While that is not the price dump you want, that is still not bad. I do agree that CV is stickier then Scripps and I believe that CV is in general more desireable then Scripps due to location and proximity.

In the year of 2000 there were some sales for 3000+ sf homes in your area for 600 and up. By 2001 they were in the mid 700’s. Can they run down to the 600’s again in 3 years? Perhaps they can. I don’t think they will but ya never know… depends on employment. We have a big notch in the employment picture and a runup in rates, then yeah they MAY drop to that level.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Newbiz,

I would agree with what the others said about CV with regards to it coming down. In general CV is still stuck in ultra sticky mode because it is a desired destination but I do feel it has come down. Not much distress there though.

As far as Scripps goes I am just as frustrated. Essentially the 11494 Winding Ridge property that is in escrow right now is selling at a 2003 price level for that west side of Scripps that you are on, up on the hill. While that is not the price dump you want, that is still not bad. I do agree that CV is stickier then Scripps and I believe that CV is in general more desireable then Scripps due to location and proximity.

In the year of 2000 there were some sales for 3000+ sf homes in your area for 600 and up. By 2001 they were in the mid 700’s. Can they run down to the 600’s again in 3 years? Perhaps they can. I don’t think they will but ya never know… depends on employment. We have a big notch in the employment picture and a runup in rates, then yeah they MAY drop to that level.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Newbiz,

I would agree with what the others said about CV with regards to it coming down. In general CV is still stuck in ultra sticky mode because it is a desired destination but I do feel it has come down. Not much distress there though.

As far as Scripps goes I am just as frustrated. Essentially the 11494 Winding Ridge property that is in escrow right now is selling at a 2003 price level for that west side of Scripps that you are on, up on the hill. While that is not the price dump you want, that is still not bad. I do agree that CV is stickier then Scripps and I believe that CV is in general more desireable then Scripps due to location and proximity.

In the year of 2000 there were some sales for 3000+ sf homes in your area for 600 and up. By 2001 they were in the mid 700’s. Can they run down to the 600’s again in 3 years? Perhaps they can. I don’t think they will but ya never know… depends on employment. We have a big notch in the employment picture and a runup in rates, then yeah they MAY drop to that level.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Newbiz,

I would agree with what the others said about CV with regards to it coming down. In general CV is still stuck in ultra sticky mode because it is a desired destination but I do feel it has come down. Not much distress there though.

As far as Scripps goes I am just as frustrated. Essentially the 11494 Winding Ridge property that is in escrow right now is selling at a 2003 price level for that west side of Scripps that you are on, up on the hill. While that is not the price dump you want, that is still not bad. I do agree that CV is stickier then Scripps and I believe that CV is in general more desireable then Scripps due to location and proximity.

In the year of 2000 there were some sales for 3000+ sf homes in your area for 600 and up. By 2001 they were in the mid 700’s. Can they run down to the 600’s again in 3 years? Perhaps they can. I don’t think they will but ya never know… depends on employment. We have a big notch in the employment picture and a runup in rates, then yeah they MAY drop to that level.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Newbiz,

I would agree with what the others said about CV with regards to it coming down. In general CV is still stuck in ultra sticky mode because it is a desired destination but I do feel it has come down. Not much distress there though.

As far as Scripps goes I am just as frustrated. Essentially the 11494 Winding Ridge property that is in escrow right now is selling at a 2003 price level for that west side of Scripps that you are on, up on the hill. While that is not the price dump you want, that is still not bad. I do agree that CV is stickier then Scripps and I believe that CV is in general more desireable then Scripps due to location and proximity.

In the year of 2000 there were some sales for 3000+ sf homes in your area for 600 and up. By 2001 they were in the mid 700’s. Can they run down to the 600’s again in 3 years? Perhaps they can. I don’t think they will but ya never know… depends on employment. We have a big notch in the employment picture and a runup in rates, then yeah they MAY drop to that level.

SD Realtor

[Coronita]

On what data are you basing your opinion?

Um… There's plenty in belmont, cloverhurst, and other CCH community if you look at sales history and compare that the prior years sales.

For example: http://www.sdlookup.com/Property_Search-cloverhurst

 

But then again, you might think specifically the new pardee communities will be specially immune from other "lesser desirable communities in CCH"…

Let's revisit this thread and see where we're at today….

http://piggington.com/carmel_valley_pardee_dh_saratoga_carriagerun_holding_value

 

Carriage Run:

1)MLS 071091971 listed 11/30/2007: (Builder listing)

11371 BLACK COLT LANE

$823,875/ 1985 sqft

Still active. no takers yet.

 

Saratoga:

1) MLS 071089870/ listed 11/19/2007(builder listing)

5108 GREAT MEADOW DRIVE

$1,047,250/ 2724 sqft

Pending: I guess this is the one you meant as going pending. If I recall though, this is a builder listed unit. So I wonder if there are going to be some hidden incentives. You do realize the Pardee had offer some cash discounts/rebates/etc to units in undesirable locations. At least they did when we were looking for fun in Derby Hills.

 

2)086002322 listed 1/8/2008

5274 FOXBOROUGH PT

$1,150,000 /2769 sqft

Relisted : as 081012981

$1,074,900 (currently active, unless it recently went pending).

 

No takers yet.

3)081014020

10707 Heather Ridge

Currently listed active: $1,075,000

Still active (unless it went pending recently)

I believe this was previously listed
for $1.1-1.25M at 2700+ sf (yeah right)

Also note, last sale : $1,092,500 (05/22/2006), so this will be a loss (unless there was some hidden builder rebates from the intial sale)

No takers yet.

4) 086009417 Model home (builder selling)

10744 HEATHER RIDGE DR San Diego, CA 92130

$1,037,950

This model home is up for grabs less than other resales.

Also interesting listing price history

Feb 05, 2008	$1,075,900
Feb 12, 2008	$1,037,950

 

So this make me wonder. I'm willing to bet money that for the that mls 071089870 that went pending has some decent builder incentives. Like you said, the location is terrible. And if the builder had to lower the model to $1.037M which arguably is in a better location, fully decked out in options, and still no one is "jumping" on this, I'd be press to believe the first unit in the terrible location would sell without sizeable hidden incentive out there. We'll see.

I do think the model home will sell soon, over the next month, at least before any of the the other resales sell. 

 

 

Let's move on to DH:

1)086001831 5318 Foxhound Way

Still active: though as SDR mentioned, this was 100% financed at 1.184M. lol. Nice surburban SUV in the driveway btw…Probably also 100% financed too.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1381455

seller looks like he/she/they might be trying to flipp, given their asking price. Still no takers.

2) 5289 Foxhound Way

Don't know what happened to this listing.

 

ILCV, with all due respect, you seem awfully defensive about the Pardee community…Do you live in one of these homes or work for Pardee 🙂 ?

I mean, with all due respect, as nice as the Pardee communities are (mainly being new), they aren't that much more special than other tract homes in CV…And logically, it's unrealistic to see the rest of CV prices to come down while one particular community (Pardee) "holds value". There are plenty of tract communities that imho are nicer than Pardee's recent releases and all have shown price decline compared to prior years, and at least those communities have access to Sage Canyon Elementary.

Furthermore, unless you paid cash for your home, you've already loosing money on your home if you purchased 2004 or beyond. I think you can at least agree prices aren't going to be going UP over the next couple of years….your interest payments, any upgrades that don't transfer to well to appreciating your home, and commissions to any RE agent to sell your home are costs that puts almost all 2006+ buyers, most 2005+ buyers, and some 2004+ buyers already underwater.

 

[Coronita]

On what data are you basing your opinion?

Um… There's plenty in belmont, cloverhurst, and other CCH community if you look at sales history and compare that the prior years sales.

For example: http://www.sdlookup.com/Property_Search-cloverhurst

 

But then again, you might think specifically the new pardee communities will be specially immune from other "lesser desirable communities in CCH"…

Let's revisit this thread and see where we're at today….

http://piggington.com/carmel_valley_pardee_dh_saratoga_carriagerun_holding_value

 

Carriage Run:

1)MLS 071091971 listed 11/30/2007: (Builder listing)

11371 BLACK COLT LANE

$823,875/ 1985 sqft

Still active. no takers yet.

 

Saratoga:

1) MLS 071089870/ listed 11/19/2007(builder listing)

5108 GREAT MEADOW DRIVE

$1,047,250/ 2724 sqft

Pending: I guess this is the one you meant as going pending. If I recall though, this is a builder listed unit. So I wonder if there are going to be some hidden incentives. You do realize the Pardee had offer some cash discounts/rebates/etc to units in undesirable locations. At least they did when we were looking for fun in Derby Hills.

 

2)086002322 listed 1/8/2008

5274 FOXBOROUGH PT

$1,150,000 /2769 sqft

Relisted : as 081012981

$1,074,900 (currently active, unless it recently went pending).

 

No takers yet.

3)081014020

10707 Heather Ridge

Currently listed active: $1,075,000

Still active (unless it went pending recently)

I believe this was previously listed
for $1.1-1.25M at 2700+ sf (yeah right)

Also note, last sale : $1,092,500 (05/22/2006), so this will be a loss (unless there was some hidden builder rebates from the intial sale)

No takers yet.

4) 086009417 Model home (builder selling)

10744 HEATHER RIDGE DR San Diego, CA 92130

$1,037,950

This model home is up for grabs less than other resales.

Also interesting listing price history

Feb 05, 2008	$1,075,900
Feb 12, 2008	$1,037,950

 

So this make me wonder. I'm willing to bet money that for the that mls 071089870 that went pending has some decent builder incentives. Like you said, the location is terrible. And if the builder had to lower the model to $1.037M which arguably is in a better location, fully decked out in options, and still no one is "jumping" on this, I'd be press to believe the first unit in the terrible location would sell without sizeable hidden incentive out there. We'll see.

I do think the model home will sell soon, over the next month, at least before any of the the other resales sell. 

 

 

Let's move on to DH:

1)086001831 5318 Foxhound Way

Still active: though as SDR mentioned, this was 100% financed at 1.184M. lol. Nice surburban SUV in the driveway btw…Probably also 100% financed too.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1381455

seller looks like he/she/they might be trying to flipp, given their asking price. Still no takers.

2) 5289 Foxhound Way

Don't know what happened to this listing.

 

ILCV, with all due respect, you seem awfully defensive about the Pardee community…Do you live in one of these homes or work for Pardee 🙂 ?

I mean, with all due respect, as nice as the Pardee communities are (mainly being new), they aren't that much more special than other tract homes in CV…And logically, it's unrealistic to see the rest of CV prices to come down while one particular community (Pardee) "holds value". There are plenty of tract communities that imho are nicer than Pardee's recent releases and all have shown price decline compared to prior years, and at least those communities have access to Sage Canyon Elementary.

Furthermore, unless you paid cash for your home, you've already loosing money on your home if you purchased 2004 or beyond. I think you can at least agree prices aren't going to be going UP over the next couple of years….your interest payments, any upgrades that don't transfer to well to appreciating your home, and commissions to any RE agent to sell your home are costs that puts almost all 2006+ buyers, most 2005+ buyers, and some 2004+ buyers already underwater.

 

[Coronita]

On what data are you basing your opinion?

Um… There's plenty in belmont, cloverhurst, and other CCH community if you look at sales history and compare that the prior years sales.

For example: http://www.sdlookup.com/Property_Search-cloverhurst

 

But then again, you might think specifically the new pardee communities will be specially immune from other "lesser desirable communities in CCH"…

Let's revisit this thread and see where we're at today….

http://piggington.com/carmel_valley_pardee_dh_saratoga_carriagerun_holding_value

 

Carriage Run:

1)MLS 071091971 listed 11/30/2007: (Builder listing)

11371 BLACK COLT LANE

$823,875/ 1985 sqft

Still active. no takers yet.

 

Saratoga:

1) MLS 071089870/ listed 11/19/2007(builder listing)

5108 GREAT MEADOW DRIVE

$1,047,250/ 2724 sqft

Pending: I guess this is the one you meant as going pending. If I recall though, this is a builder listed unit. So I wonder if there are going to be some hidden incentives. You do realize the Pardee had offer some cash discounts/rebates/etc to units in undesirable locations. At least they did when we were looking for fun in Derby Hills.

 

2)086002322 listed 1/8/2008

5274 FOXBOROUGH PT

$1,150,000 /2769 sqft

Relisted : as 081012981

$1,074,900 (currently active, unless it recently went pending).

 

No takers yet.

3)081014020

10707 Heather Ridge

Currently listed active: $1,075,000

Still active (unless it went pending recently)

I believe this was previously listed
for $1.1-1.25M at 2700+ sf (yeah right)

Also note, last sale : $1,092,500 (05/22/2006), so this will be a loss (unless there was some hidden builder rebates from the intial sale)

No takers yet.

4) 086009417 Model home (builder selling)

10744 HEATHER RIDGE DR San Diego, CA 92130

$1,037,950

This model home is up for grabs less than other resales.

Also interesting listing price history

Feb 05, 2008	$1,075,900
Feb 12, 2008	$1,037,950

 

So this make me wonder. I'm willing to bet money that for the that mls 071089870 that went pending has some decent builder incentives. Like you said, the location is terrible. And if the builder had to lower the model to $1.037M which arguably is in a better location, fully decked out in options, and still no one is "jumping" on this, I'd be press to believe the first unit in the terrible location would sell without sizeable hidden incentive out there. We'll see.

I do think the model home will sell soon, over the next month, at least before any of the the other resales sell. 

 

 

Let's move on to DH:

1)086001831 5318 Foxhound Way

Still active: though as SDR mentioned, this was 100% financed at 1.184M. lol. Nice surburban SUV in the driveway btw…Probably also 100% financed too.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1381455

seller looks like he/she/they might be trying to flipp, given their asking price. Still no takers.

2) 5289 Foxhound Way

Don't know what happened to this listing.

 

ILCV, with all due respect, you seem awfully defensive about the Pardee community…Do you live in one of these homes or work for Pardee 🙂 ?

I mean, with all due respect, as nice as the Pardee communities are (mainly being new), they aren't that much more special than other tract homes in CV…And logically, it's unrealistic to see the rest of CV prices to come down while one particular community (Pardee) "holds value". There are plenty of tract communities that imho are nicer than Pardee's recent releases and all have shown price decline compared to prior years, and at least those communities have access to Sage Canyon Elementary.

Furthermore, unless you paid cash for your home, you've already loosing money on your home if you purchased 2004 or beyond. I think you can at least agree prices aren't going to be going UP over the next couple of years….your interest payments, any upgrades that don't transfer to well to appreciating your home, and commissions to any RE agent to sell your home are costs that puts almost all 2006+ buyers, most 2005+ buyers, and some 2004+ buyers already underwater.

 

[Coronita]

On what data are you basing your opinion?

Um… There's plenty in belmont, cloverhurst, and other CCH community if you look at sales history and compare that the prior years sales.

For example: http://www.sdlookup.com/Property_Search-cloverhurst

 

But then again, you might think specifically the new pardee communities will be specially immune from other "lesser desirable communities in CCH"…

Let's revisit this thread and see where we're at today….

http://piggington.com/carmel_valley_pardee_dh_saratoga_carriagerun_holding_value

 

Carriage Run:

1)MLS 071091971 listed 11/30/2007: (Builder listing)

11371 BLACK COLT LANE

$823,875/ 1985 sqft

Still active. no takers yet.

 

Saratoga:

1) MLS 071089870/ listed 11/19/2007(builder listing)

5108 GREAT MEADOW DRIVE

$1,047,250/ 2724 sqft

Pending: I guess this is the one you meant as going pending. If I recall though, this is a builder listed unit. So I wonder if there are going to be some hidden incentives. You do realize the Pardee had offer some cash discounts/rebates/etc to units in undesirable locations. At least they did when we were looking for fun in Derby Hills.

 

2)086002322 listed 1/8/2008

5274 FOXBOROUGH PT

$1,150,000 /2769 sqft

Relisted : as 081012981

$1,074,900 (currently active, unless it recently went pending).

 

No takers yet.

3)081014020

10707 Heather Ridge

Currently listed active: $1,075,000

Still active (unless it went pending recently)

I believe this was previously listed
for $1.1-1.25M at 2700+ sf (yeah right)

Also note, last sale : $1,092,500 (05/22/2006), so this will be a loss (unless there was some hidden builder rebates from the intial sale)

No takers yet.

4) 086009417 Model home (builder selling)

10744 HEATHER RIDGE DR San Diego, CA 92130

$1,037,950

This model home is up for grabs less than other resales.

Also interesting listing price history

Feb 05, 2008	$1,075,900
Feb 12, 2008	$1,037,950

 

So this make me wonder. I'm willing to bet money that for the that mls 071089870 that went pending has some decent builder incentives. Like you said, the location is terrible. And if the builder had to lower the model to $1.037M which arguably is in a better location, fully decked out in options, and still no one is "jumping" on this, I'd be press to believe the first unit in the terrible location would sell without sizeable hidden incentive out there. We'll see.

I do think the model home will sell soon, over the next month, at least before any of the the other resales sell. 

 

 

Let's move on to DH:

1)086001831 5318 Foxhound Way

Still active: though as SDR mentioned, this was 100% financed at 1.184M. lol. Nice surburban SUV in the driveway btw…Probably also 100% financed too.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1381455

seller looks like he/she/they might be trying to flipp, given their asking price. Still no takers.

2) 5289 Foxhound Way

Don't know what happened to this listing.

 

ILCV, with all due respect, you seem awfully defensive about the Pardee community…Do you live in one of these homes or work for Pardee 🙂 ?

I mean, with all due respect, as nice as the Pardee communities are (mainly being new), they aren't that much more special than other tract homes in CV…And logically, it's unrealistic to see the rest of CV prices to come down while one particular community (Pardee) "holds value". There are plenty of tract communities that imho are nicer than Pardee's recent releases and all have shown price decline compared to prior years, and at least those communities have access to Sage Canyon Elementary.

Furthermore, unless you paid cash for your home, you've already loosing money on your home if you purchased 2004 or beyond. I think you can at least agree prices aren't going to be going UP over the next couple of years….your interest payments, any upgrades that don't transfer to well to appreciating your home, and commissions to any RE agent to sell your home are costs that puts almost all 2006+ buyers, most 2005+ buyers, and some 2004+ buyers already underwater.

 

[Coronita]

On what data are you basing your opinion?

Um… There's plenty in belmont, cloverhurst, and other CCH community if you look at sales history and compare that the prior years sales.

For example: http://www.sdlookup.com/Property_Search-cloverhurst

 

But then again, you might think specifically the new pardee communities will be specially immune from other "lesser desirable communities in CCH"…

Let's revisit this thread and see where we're at today….

http://piggington.com/carmel_valley_pardee_dh_saratoga_carriagerun_holding_value

 

Carriage Run:

1)MLS 071091971 listed 11/30/2007: (Builder listing)

11371 BLACK COLT LANE

$823,875/ 1985 sqft

Still active. no takers yet.

 

Saratoga:

1) MLS 071089870/ listed 11/19/2007(builder listing)

5108 GREAT MEADOW DRIVE

$1,047,250/ 2724 sqft

Pending: I guess this is the one you meant as going pending. If I recall though, this is a builder listed unit. So I wonder if there are going to be some hidden incentives. You do realize the Pardee had offer some cash discounts/rebates/etc to units in undesirable locations. At least they did when we were looking for fun in Derby Hills.

 

2)086002322 listed 1/8/2008

5274 FOXBOROUGH PT

$1,150,000 /2769 sqft

Relisted : as 081012981

$1,074,900 (currently active, unless it recently went pending).

 

No takers yet.

3)081014020

10707 Heather Ridge

Currently listed active: $1,075,000

Still active (unless it went pending recently)

I believe this was previously listed
for $1.1-1.25M at 2700+ sf (yeah right)

Also note, last sale : $1,092,500 (05/22/2006), so this will be a loss (unless there was some hidden builder rebates from the intial sale)

No takers yet.

4) 086009417 Model home (builder selling)

10744 HEATHER RIDGE DR San Diego, CA 92130

$1,037,950

This model home is up for grabs less than other resales.

Also interesting listing price history

Feb 05, 2008	$1,075,900
Feb 12, 2008	$1,037,950

 

So this make me wonder. I'm willing to bet money that for the that mls 071089870 that went pending has some decent builder incentives. Like you said, the location is terrible. And if the builder had to lower the model to $1.037M which arguably is in a better location, fully decked out in options, and still no one is "jumping" on this, I'd be press to believe the first unit in the terrible location would sell without sizeable hidden incentive out there. We'll see.

I do think the model home will sell soon, over the next month, at least before any of the the other resales sell. 

 

 

Let's move on to DH:

1)086001831 5318 Foxhound Way

Still active: though as SDR mentioned, this was 100% financed at 1.184M. lol. Nice surburban SUV in the driveway btw…Probably also 100% financed too.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1381455

seller looks like he/she/they might be trying to flipp, given their asking price. Still no takers.

2) 5289 Foxhound Way

Don't know what happened to this listing.

 

ILCV, with all due respect, you seem awfully defensive about the Pardee community…Do you live in one of these homes or work for Pardee 🙂 ?

I mean, with all due respect, as nice as the Pardee communities are (mainly being new), they aren't that much more special than other tract homes in CV…And logically, it's unrealistic to see the rest of CV prices to come down while one particular community (Pardee) "holds value". There are plenty of tract communities that imho are nicer than Pardee's recent releases and all have shown price decline compared to prior years, and at least those communities have access to Sage Canyon Elementary.

Furthermore, unless you paid cash for your home, you've already loosing money on your home if you purchased 2004 or beyond. I think you can at least agree prices aren't going to be going UP over the next couple of years….your interest payments, any upgrades that don't transfer to well to appreciating your home, and commissions to any RE agent to sell your home are costs that puts almost all 2006+ buyers, most 2005+ buyers, and some 2004+ buyers already underwater.

 

[Anonymous]

I realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn’t the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? Have you guys/gals gone to http://www.beaconecon.com and checked out the latest posting of the economist Dr. Christopher Thornberg. He was at UCLA and started his own forecasting firm. He has some recent SD specific presentations on his website. He is predicting prices will bottom out in Q3 of 2010, with peak to trough declines of 38%.

[Anonymous]

I realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn’t the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? Have you guys/gals gone to http://www.beaconecon.com and checked out the latest posting of the economist Dr. Christopher Thornberg. He was at UCLA and started his own forecasting firm. He has some recent SD specific presentations on his website. He is predicting prices will bottom out in Q3 of 2010, with peak to trough declines of 38%.

[Anonymous]

I realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn’t the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? Have you guys/gals gone to http://www.beaconecon.com and checked out the latest posting of the economist Dr. Christopher Thornberg. He was at UCLA and started his own forecasting firm. He has some recent SD specific presentations on his website. He is predicting prices will bottom out in Q3 of 2010, with peak to trough declines of 38%.

[Anonymous]

I realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn’t the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? Have you guys/gals gone to http://www.beaconecon.com and checked out the latest posting of the economist Dr. Christopher Thornberg. He was at UCLA and started his own forecasting firm. He has some recent SD specific presentations on his website. He is predicting prices will bottom out in Q3 of 2010, with peak to trough declines of 38%.

[Author]

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