Any price drops in Scripps ranch and carmel valley?

[newbiz]

sdr, bugs

I am seeing all kinds of price drops in areas like escondido, temecula, Chula vista etc.
But my interes lies in DelMar, Carmel Valley, Scripps Ranch

I freequently check ziprealty with a criteria of over 3000sft in these areas individually. Though I have see some drops in Scripps ranch there are not significant. I am not seeing any drop in Carmel valley.

Am I missing any thing?

In scripps, I live on winding ridge dr and I do not see much activity and pretty much no drop

The house I am renting sold for 650 in 2003, The house next doors sold for 1150k about 9 months back. I am looking forward to this home priced at 650 some time in next 2 or 3 years, do you guys think that is a possibility?

What are you guys seeing in the above mentioned areas for homes over 3000sft

[sdrealtor]

I have defintely seen price declines in CV just not huge declines that are so easy to notice as in the areas you mention. Alot of people took their homes off the market in CV when they couldnt get what they wanted and they can afford to do so. This is a major dynamic going on there that keeps inventory relatively low there.

[sdrealtor]

I have defintely seen price declines in CV just not huge declines that are so easy to notice as in the areas you mention. Alot of people took their homes off the market in CV when they couldnt get what they wanted and they can afford to do so. This is a major dynamic going on there that keeps inventory relatively low there.

[sdrealtor]

I have defintely seen price declines in CV just not huge declines that are so easy to notice as in the areas you mention. Alot of people took their homes off the market in CV when they couldnt get what they wanted and they can afford to do so. This is a major dynamic going on there that keeps inventory relatively low there.

[sdrealtor]

I have defintely seen price declines in CV just not huge declines that are so easy to notice as in the areas you mention. Alot of people took their homes off the market in CV when they couldnt get what they wanted and they can afford to do so. This is a major dynamic going on there that keeps inventory relatively low there.

[sdrealtor]

I have defintely seen price declines in CV just not huge declines that are so easy to notice as in the areas you mention. Alot of people took their homes off the market in CV when they couldnt get what they wanted and they can afford to do so. This is a major dynamic going on there that keeps inventory relatively low there.

[Coronita]

So someone on in my neighborhood just put a house on the market while I was out on vacation, and it seemed to have gone into escrow pretty quickly…like within a week…….BUT…. I think it's because it was priced right. For reference, the house was priced back at early 2004 levels. I don't think the house was for sale before I left, and I know it's in escrow now. The asking price was well below $1mil for approximately 2600+sqft.. …..and close to other's purchase price around early 2004. I won't venture what that means or which this home, but those with MLS can probably figure out which one.

The seller probably could have gotten slightly more if they uped the asking price, at the risk of waiting months…but it seemed like they wanted to sell pretty quickly… According to tax records, it seems like the seller was the original owner, so provided he/she/they didn't refinance to buy crap (which judging their modest appearance– they didn't), it seems like they still pocketed quite a bit from this transaction.

So,yes, it seems prices have fallen. Though this is just 1 transaction, it seems like pricing something at the early 2004 in a decent location in CV can generate some decent interest. When we'll start seeing 2003 prices, well that should happen soon.

Ironically someone else on the street that's been selling (and the poor knife catcher that bought) went into escrow with an almost identical unit (with nice upgrades) for about $150k more. Don't know final closing price yet, but this one took 3+ months to find a knife catcher.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Anonymous]

I’ve been watching the CV market as well. Prices are sticky coming down. I don’t think they will come down as much as East Lake or N. Oceanside but I’ve got to believe we will see a decline of 15% or so during the next 12 months. (I think tertiary areas like Vista, Escondido, Chula might see declines of 20% to 25% more.) I live in Denver and wouldn’t mind moving back. I’m not real motivated, and I worry about moving back when tax revenues are much lower and school funding is whacked. But CV would be a good place to raise kids. Not that I know for sure, since I live in Denver, but the schools seem awfully good and I like the parks and general location. I lived in SD many years ago and I go there a few times a year, so I have some idea of the area. I don’t want to risk being a knife catcher so I will get more serious the first quarter of next year.

[[email protected]]

Prices in Carmel Country Highlands seem to be holding. One of the last Saratoga houses just went into pending and the rumor is that it was over $1M (even though it’s front door is feet from Carmel Mountain Road!). There are three houses in Saratoga now – all are the biggest model at approx. 2700 sf with prices of $1.075, 1.034, and $1.075-$1.125.

There are two Derby Hill resales still available (Plan 2 at $1.59-1.69 and a Plan 1 at $1.299). There is a new release at Derby Hill tomorrow and the prices are still just as high. The December and January releases sold out the same weekend. I believe there are three Derby Hill’s in Pardee’s inventory to be completed in April and July but two are Plan 1’s that have a steep hill behind them and the third is a very pricey Plan 3).

[Coronita]

Prices in Carmel Country Highlands seem to be holding.

um… no… Not in free fall, but definitely not "holding"

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[[email protected]]

On what data are you basing your opinion?

[Coronita]

On what data are you basing your opinion?

Um… There's plenty in belmont, cloverhurst, and other CCH community if you look at sales history and compare that the prior years sales.

For example: http://www.sdlookup.com/Property_Search-cloverhurst

 

But then again, you might think specifically the new pardee communities will be specially immune from other "lesser desirable communities in CCH"…

Let's revisit this thread and see where we're at today….

http://piggington.com/carmel_valley_pardee_dh_saratoga_carriagerun_holding_value

 

Carriage Run:

1)MLS 071091971 listed 11/30/2007: (Builder listing)

11371 BLACK COLT LANE

$823,875/ 1985 sqft

Still active. no takers yet.

 

Saratoga:

1) MLS 071089870/ listed 11/19/2007(builder listing)

5108 GREAT MEADOW DRIVE

$1,047,250/ 2724 sqft

Pending: I guess this is the one you meant as going pending. If I recall though, this is a builder listed unit. So I wonder if there are going to be some hidden incentives. You do realize the Pardee had offer some cash discounts/rebates/etc to units in undesirable locations. At least they did when we were looking for fun in Derby Hills.

 

2)086002322 listed 1/8/2008

5274 FOXBOROUGH PT

$1,150,000 /2769 sqft

Relisted : as 081012981

$1,074,900 (currently active, unless it recently went pending).

 

No takers yet.

3)081014020

10707 Heather Ridge

Currently listed active: $1,075,000

Still active (unless it went pending recently)

I believe this was previously listed
for $1.1-1.25M at 2700+ sf (yeah right)

Also note, last sale : $1,092,500 (05/22/2006), so this will be a loss (unless there was some hidden builder rebates from the intial sale)

No takers yet.

4) 086009417 Model home (builder selling)

10744 HEATHER RIDGE DR San Diego, CA 92130

$1,037,950

This model home is up for grabs less than other resales.

Also interesting listing price history

Feb 05, 2008	$1,075,900
Feb 12, 2008	$1,037,950

 

So this make me wonder. I'm willing to bet money that for the that mls 071089870 that went pending has some decent builder incentives. Like you said, the location is terrible. And if the builder had to lower the model to $1.037M which arguably is in a better location, fully decked out in options, and still no one is "jumping" on this, I'd be press to believe the first unit in the terrible location would sell without sizeable hidden incentive out there. We'll see.

I do think the model home will sell soon, over the next month, at least before any of the the other resales sell. 

 

 

Let's move on to DH:

1)086001831 5318 Foxhound Way

Still active: though as SDR mentioned, this was 100% financed at 1.184M. lol. Nice surburban SUV in the driveway btw…Probably also 100% financed too.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1381455

seller looks like he/she/they might be trying to flipp, given their asking price. Still no takers.

2) 5289 Foxhound Way

Don't know what happened to this listing.

 

ILCV, with all due respect, you seem awfully defensive about the Pardee community…Do you live in one of these homes or work for Pardee 🙂 ?

I mean, with all due respect, as nice as the Pardee communities are (mainly being new), they aren't that much more special than other tract homes in CV…And logically, it's unrealistic to see the rest of CV prices to come down while one particular community (Pardee) "holds value". There are plenty of tract communities that imho are nicer than Pardee's recent releases and all have shown price decline compared to prior years, and at least those communities have access to Sage Canyon Elementary.

Furthermore, unless you paid cash for your home, you've already loosing money on your home if you purchased 2004 or beyond. I think you can at least agree prices aren't going to be going UP over the next couple of years….your interest payments, any upgrades that don't transfer to well to appreciating your home, and commissions to any RE agent to sell your home are costs that puts almost all 2006+ buyers, most 2005+ buyers, and some 2004+ buyers already underwater.

 

[Anonymous]

I realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn’t the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? Have you guys/gals gone to http://www.beaconecon.com and checked out the latest posting of the economist Dr. Christopher Thornberg. He was at UCLA and started his own forecasting firm. He has some recent SD specific presentations on his website. He is predicting prices will bottom out in Q3 of 2010, with peak to trough declines of 38%.

[Coronita]

realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn't the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? 

 

Yes, I think most people agree with you. It will just take longer, because in areas like CV, SR, LJ, there's more financially sound people than other areas…But in time, all areas get affected to some degree. It will be interesting as we move forward who will "have to sell".

I predict we'll get a lot more "have to sell" in newer communities than older frankly, because I suspect a lot more folks with questionable finances exist in more recent buyers than older buyers, and hence more in newer communities.  But time will tell. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[SD Realtor]

Completely agree with you FLU. Not a question of if, just when. Those with patience will be rewarded but don’t expect it to happen overnight. Give it a year or 2-3.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Completely agree with you FLU. Not a question of if, just when. Those with patience will be rewarded but don’t expect it to happen overnight. Give it a year or 2-3.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Completely agree with you FLU. Not a question of if, just when. Those with patience will be rewarded but don’t expect it to happen overnight. Give it a year or 2-3.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Completely agree with you FLU. Not a question of if, just when. Those with patience will be rewarded but don’t expect it to happen overnight. Give it a year or 2-3.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Completely agree with you FLU. Not a question of if, just when. Those with patience will be rewarded but don’t expect it to happen overnight. Give it a year or 2-3.

SD Realtor

[Coronita]

realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn't the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? 

 

Yes, I think most people agree with you. It will just take longer, because in areas like CV, SR, LJ, there's more financially sound people than other areas…But in time, all areas get affected to some degree. It will be interesting as we move forward who will "have to sell".

I predict we'll get a lot more "have to sell" in newer communities than older frankly, because I suspect a lot more folks with questionable finances exist in more recent buyers than older buyers, and hence more in newer communities.  But time will tell. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn't the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? 

 

Yes, I think most people agree with you. It will just take longer, because in areas like CV, SR, LJ, there's more financially sound people than other areas…But in time, all areas get affected to some degree. It will be interesting as we move forward who will "have to sell".

I predict we'll get a lot more "have to sell" in newer communities than older frankly, because I suspect a lot more folks with questionable finances exist in more recent buyers than older buyers, and hence more in newer communities.  But time will tell. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn't the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? 

 

Yes, I think most people agree with you. It will just take longer, because in areas like CV, SR, LJ, there's more financially sound people than other areas…But in time, all areas get affected to some degree. It will be interesting as we move forward who will "have to sell".

I predict we'll get a lot more "have to sell" in newer communities than older frankly, because I suspect a lot more folks with questionable finances exist in more recent buyers than older buyers, and hence more in newer communities.  But time will tell. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn't the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? 

 

Yes, I think most people agree with you. It will just take longer, because in areas like CV, SR, LJ, there's more financially sound people than other areas…But in time, all areas get affected to some degree. It will be interesting as we move forward who will "have to sell".

I predict we'll get a lot more "have to sell" in newer communities than older frankly, because I suspect a lot more folks with questionable finances exist in more recent buyers than older buyers, and hence more in newer communities.  But time will tell. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Anonymous]

I realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn’t the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? Have you guys/gals gone to http://www.beaconecon.com and checked out the latest posting of the economist Dr. Christopher Thornberg. He was at UCLA and started his own forecasting firm. He has some recent SD specific presentations on his website. He is predicting prices will bottom out in Q3 of 2010, with peak to trough declines of 38%.

[Anonymous]

I realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn’t the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? Have you guys/gals gone to http://www.beaconecon.com and checked out the latest posting of the economist Dr. Christopher Thornberg. He was at UCLA and started his own forecasting firm. He has some recent SD specific presentations on his website. He is predicting prices will bottom out in Q3 of 2010, with peak to trough declines of 38%.

[Anonymous]

I realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn’t the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? Have you guys/gals gone to http://www.beaconecon.com and checked out the latest posting of the economist Dr. Christopher Thornberg. He was at UCLA and started his own forecasting firm. He has some recent SD specific presentations on his website. He is predicting prices will bottom out in Q3 of 2010, with peak to trough declines of 38%.

[Anonymous]

I realize CV is a more desirable location, but at some point isn’t the lack of liquidity in the mortgage markets going to start hurting sales. Higher income folks, yes, but jumbo rates are relatively high and credit standards are toughening. Once more and more folks have to sell, i.e., job transfers, divorces, etc., there might be willing knife catchers but the qualified buyers would seem to be less. More and more supply over time, but at least in this credit environment, less qualified buyers. Increasing inventories should eventually lead to prices coming down, right? Have you guys/gals gone to http://www.beaconecon.com and checked out the latest posting of the economist Dr. Christopher Thornberg. He was at UCLA and started his own forecasting firm. He has some recent SD specific presentations on his website. He is predicting prices will bottom out in Q3 of 2010, with peak to trough declines of 38%.

[[email protected]]

No, I don’t own in one of these communities and don’t work for Pardee. I just find it interesting that these new developments continue to be strong in the wake of most other parts of San Diego.

All four of the Saratoga houses are now in pending status. It will be interesting to see the closing prices but they weren’t on the market all that long to expect a huge difference from the list price.

Pardees prices on Derby Hill haven’t gone down and they continue to sell out new releases in a matter of days as recently as 2/23. Any thoughts on why these are staying so strong?

[SD Realtor]

Ilovecv –

Since I have been gathering lots of stats lately I did the same thing for CV… Data never lies. Sometimes it can be presented to hide things and other times anamolies need to be investigated because they can skew the data. However the data for resale CV homes is pretty straightforward. One thing that has become apparent to me is that the areas of strength have reduced losses simply due to lack of distress. Even in the absence of that distress you can see from the stats below that indeed, resale detached homes in CV are coming up on 15% below the highs in 2006.

If you look at my Saturday Night Stats post you can see some really interesting data from different areas to compare to. The thing that I am picking up is that in the absence of distress we are still indeed seeing depreciation. It takes the form of lower volume at first, and then after a year or two of reduced volume the cracks form and people do give in and sell at a lower price. As distress comes to light the process accelerates.

In the absence of distress CV will drift down slowly. Definitely single digits per year however at some point there will be distress for some. Perhaps not close to the numbers we see in Eastlake but I think it will happen.

Remember, I am one of those in the camp that does indeed believe different regions will find different floors at different times. I don’t believe any area is impervious to the declines though.

*******

As to new homes like Saratoga or Derby Hills, I am not so sure that is a fair comparison. No reseller can compete against a developer. Indeed those homes will sell and they will sell in a quick timeframe.

Data for 92130 resale of detached homes is below. If I included attached homes it would look much worse for the median

92130

2/1/01 – 3/1/01 30 sales, median price 674,913
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 52 sales, median price 711,094
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 41 sales, median price 824,466
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 29 sales, median price 979,950
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 30 sales, median price 1,160,533
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 21 sales, median price 1,189,619
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 31 sales, median price 1,017,023
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 19 sales, median price 954,670

[Sandi Egan]

I think the main downforce for areas like CV, LJ and others is the price decline in nearby zip codes. If you can buy similar house one freeway exit away and it will cost you 30-40% less, you’ve GOT to consider that.
Prices in Penasquitos, Encinitas, Mira Mesa and other areas will eventually pull CV prices down. That, apparently, does take time.

[sdnerd]

Re: Sandi

At least one consideration, amongst many:

One freeway exit away often means a different school district. So, for example Mira Mesa is just a few minutes away from CV – the reality is it’s night and day difference in terms of schools. You also won’t find many Asian gangs in CV, etc.

Now, whether or not that’s worth a 10%, 20%, 30%, etc price premium is up for debate. But I do believe that’s a big factor and will help keep prices propped up.

[nostradamus]

Asian gangs? Hmmmm… been living in Mira Mesa since about 1996. Never ran across a gang in 12 years there. MMHS ranks pretty high academically. Mira Mesa ain’t pretty but it ain’t no South Central LA, homie. Quite a livable town, just a bit old.

The fact is, there’s so little to do in MM besides go to the movies that if there were a gang surely they’d hang out somewhere else. There isn’t even a pool hall in Mira Mesa. Just a bunch of restaurants and strip malls and everything closes early just like in most of SD.

[sdnerd]

Mira Mesa Town Council Meeting
February 4, 2008
Featuring a presentation by the San Diego Police Department on crime and gangs in the area

”
12-18 months ago there “was a huge gang problem up here” (in Mira Mesa). The police did a lot of sweeps, made some arrests, and knocked the gang activity down.
”

http://www.crocuta.net/GangsInMiraMesa.htm

I’m not knocking MM, but it has been a problem on and off over the years.

I have a few friends who live there in various communities. It’s not uncommon to see bullet holes in fences there; seen it first hand. You just don’t see that in CV.

[sdnerd]

Here’s some more data that I believe help explains a price premium:

Crime Rates per 1,000 Population for 2005.

http://www.sandiego.gov/police/pdf/ratesjandec2005.pdf

MURDER,RAPE,TOTAL VIOLENT,TOTAL PROPERTY

Carmel Valley:

0.00,0.06,0.76,19.14

Mira Mesa:

0.07,0.14,2.56,22.40

You can also look up school rankings, the San Dieguito Union High District (Torrey Pines, Carmel Valley Middle, Canyon Crest) all receive the highest rankings. As do all the schools in the Del Mar Union Elementary District (Carmel Del Mar, Torrey Hills, etc).

The San Diego Unified District is much more of a mixed bag, with some good, some okay, and some where I really wouldn’t want my kids to go to school.

http://school-ratings.com/cities/San_Diego.html

You can also do the same type of comparisons for Scripps Ranch, etc and it’s surrounding areas to see similar results.

[an]

Based on the school data, MMHS is ranked 8, Challenger Middle School is ranked 8, other Elementary schools on the west side of Mira Mesa are ranked 8-9 as well. So, if school is the main factor, I don’t see a night and day difference. Yes, 10 is better than 8-9, but 8-9 w/ parent staying at home and tutoring the kid is probably better than 10 w/ both parents working night and day.

In regards to crime, the number for Carmel Mountain is:

0.00, 0.27, 2.53, 24.95. So, based on crime data, Carmel Mt. should be priced similar to MM, correct?

[sdnerd]

Nowhere did I compare MM to South Central; those are your words. Of course it’s not, that’s an absurd comparison.

That however does not dismiss the fact that MM has had a history of gang problems.

MM is not a bad area, and there are nice communities in it. And as you said, the schools on the Western side do rank higher.

The simple fact remains, the schools are better in CV. And the school district as a whole is significantly stronger.

That IMHO will justify higher demand, and a price premium. How much of one; debatable. Throw in newer, nicer, safer neighborhoods and that premium goes up as well.

Just my .02.

[an]

That IMHO will justify higher demand, and a price premium. How much of one; debatable. Throw in newer, nicer, safer neighborhoods and that premium goes up as well.

Yes, CV and such are more desirable, and because of that, it does have a premium, no doubt about it. It always did and it always will. The question is how much. So I think we all agree on the basic premise.

[an]

That IMHO will justify higher demand, and a price premium. How much of one; debatable. Throw in newer, nicer, safer neighborhoods and that premium goes up as well.

Yes, CV and such are more desirable, and because of that, it does have a premium, no doubt about it. It always did and it always will. The question is how much. So I think we all agree on the basic premise.

[an]

That IMHO will justify higher demand, and a price premium. How much of one; debatable. Throw in newer, nicer, safer neighborhoods and that premium goes up as well.

Yes, CV and such are more desirable, and because of that, it does have a premium, no doubt about it. It always did and it always will. The question is how much. So I think we all agree on the basic premise.

[an]

That IMHO will justify higher demand, and a price premium. How much of one; debatable. Throw in newer, nicer, safer neighborhoods and that premium goes up as well.

Yes, CV and such are more desirable, and because of that, it does have a premium, no doubt about it. It always did and it always will. The question is how much. So I think we all agree on the basic premise.

[an]

That IMHO will justify higher demand, and a price premium. How much of one; debatable. Throw in newer, nicer, safer neighborhoods and that premium goes up as well.

Yes, CV and such are more desirable, and because of that, it does have a premium, no doubt about it. It always did and it always will. The question is how much. So I think we all agree on the basic premise.

[sdnerd]

Nowhere did I compare MM to South Central; those are your words. Of course it’s not, that’s an absurd comparison.

That however does not dismiss the fact that MM has had a history of gang problems.

MM is not a bad area, and there are nice communities in it. And as you said, the schools on the Western side do rank higher.

The simple fact remains, the schools are better in CV. And the school district as a whole is significantly stronger.

That IMHO will justify higher demand, and a price premium. How much of one; debatable. Throw in newer, nicer, safer neighborhoods and that premium goes up as well.

Just my .02.

[sdnerd]

Nowhere did I compare MM to South Central; those are your words. Of course it’s not, that’s an absurd comparison.

That however does not dismiss the fact that MM has had a history of gang problems.

MM is not a bad area, and there are nice communities in it. And as you said, the schools on the Western side do rank higher.

The simple fact remains, the schools are better in CV. And the school district as a whole is significantly stronger.

That IMHO will justify higher demand, and a price premium. How much of one; debatable. Throw in newer, nicer, safer neighborhoods and that premium goes up as well.

Just my .02.

[sdnerd]

Nowhere did I compare MM to South Central; those are your words. Of course it’s not, that’s an absurd comparison.

That however does not dismiss the fact that MM has had a history of gang problems.

MM is not a bad area, and there are nice communities in it. And as you said, the schools on the Western side do rank higher.

The simple fact remains, the schools are better in CV. And the school district as a whole is significantly stronger.

That IMHO will justify higher demand, and a price premium. How much of one; debatable. Throw in newer, nicer, safer neighborhoods and that premium goes up as well.

Just my .02.

[sdnerd]

Nowhere did I compare MM to South Central; those are your words. Of course it’s not, that’s an absurd comparison.

That however does not dismiss the fact that MM has had a history of gang problems.

MM is not a bad area, and there are nice communities in it. And as you said, the schools on the Western side do rank higher.

The simple fact remains, the schools are better in CV. And the school district as a whole is significantly stronger.

That IMHO will justify higher demand, and a price premium. How much of one; debatable. Throw in newer, nicer, safer neighborhoods and that premium goes up as well.

Just my .02.

[an]

Based on the school data, MMHS is ranked 8, Challenger Middle School is ranked 8, other Elementary schools on the west side of Mira Mesa are ranked 8-9 as well. So, if school is the main factor, I don’t see a night and day difference. Yes, 10 is better than 8-9, but 8-9 w/ parent staying at home and tutoring the kid is probably better than 10 w/ both parents working night and day.

In regards to crime, the number for Carmel Mountain is:

0.00, 0.27, 2.53, 24.95. So, based on crime data, Carmel Mt. should be priced similar to MM, correct?

[an]

Based on the school data, MMHS is ranked 8, Challenger Middle School is ranked 8, other Elementary schools on the west side of Mira Mesa are ranked 8-9 as well. So, if school is the main factor, I don’t see a night and day difference. Yes, 10 is better than 8-9, but 8-9 w/ parent staying at home and tutoring the kid is probably better than 10 w/ both parents working night and day.

In regards to crime, the number for Carmel Mountain is:

0.00, 0.27, 2.53, 24.95. So, based on crime data, Carmel Mt. should be priced similar to MM, correct?

[an]

Based on the school data, MMHS is ranked 8, Challenger Middle School is ranked 8, other Elementary schools on the west side of Mira Mesa are ranked 8-9 as well. So, if school is the main factor, I don’t see a night and day difference. Yes, 10 is better than 8-9, but 8-9 w/ parent staying at home and tutoring the kid is probably better than 10 w/ both parents working night and day.

In regards to crime, the number for Carmel Mountain is:

0.00, 0.27, 2.53, 24.95. So, based on crime data, Carmel Mt. should be priced similar to MM, correct?

[an]

Based on the school data, MMHS is ranked 8, Challenger Middle School is ranked 8, other Elementary schools on the west side of Mira Mesa are ranked 8-9 as well. So, if school is the main factor, I don’t see a night and day difference. Yes, 10 is better than 8-9, but 8-9 w/ parent staying at home and tutoring the kid is probably better than 10 w/ both parents working night and day.

In regards to crime, the number for Carmel Mountain is:

0.00, 0.27, 2.53, 24.95. So, based on crime data, Carmel Mt. should be priced similar to MM, correct?

[sdnerd]

Here’s some more data that I believe help explains a price premium:

Crime Rates per 1,000 Population for 2005.

http://www.sandiego.gov/police/pdf/ratesjandec2005.pdf

MURDER,RAPE,TOTAL VIOLENT,TOTAL PROPERTY

Carmel Valley:

0.00,0.06,0.76,19.14

Mira Mesa:

0.07,0.14,2.56,22.40

You can also look up school rankings, the San Dieguito Union High District (Torrey Pines, Carmel Valley Middle, Canyon Crest) all receive the highest rankings. As do all the schools in the Del Mar Union Elementary District (Carmel Del Mar, Torrey Hills, etc).

The San Diego Unified District is much more of a mixed bag, with some good, some okay, and some where I really wouldn’t want my kids to go to school.

http://school-ratings.com/cities/San_Diego.html

You can also do the same type of comparisons for Scripps Ranch, etc and it’s surrounding areas to see similar results.

[sdnerd]

Here’s some more data that I believe help explains a price premium:

Crime Rates per 1,000 Population for 2005.

http://www.sandiego.gov/police/pdf/ratesjandec2005.pdf

MURDER,RAPE,TOTAL VIOLENT,TOTAL PROPERTY

Carmel Valley:

0.00,0.06,0.76,19.14

Mira Mesa:

0.07,0.14,2.56,22.40

You can also look up school rankings, the San Dieguito Union High District (Torrey Pines, Carmel Valley Middle, Canyon Crest) all receive the highest rankings. As do all the schools in the Del Mar Union Elementary District (Carmel Del Mar, Torrey Hills, etc).

The San Diego Unified District is much more of a mixed bag, with some good, some okay, and some where I really wouldn’t want my kids to go to school.

http://school-ratings.com/cities/San_Diego.html

You can also do the same type of comparisons for Scripps Ranch, etc and it’s surrounding areas to see similar results.

[sdnerd]

Here’s some more data that I believe help explains a price premium:

Crime Rates per 1,000 Population for 2005.

http://www.sandiego.gov/police/pdf/ratesjandec2005.pdf

MURDER,RAPE,TOTAL VIOLENT,TOTAL PROPERTY

Carmel Valley:

0.00,0.06,0.76,19.14

Mira Mesa:

0.07,0.14,2.56,22.40

You can also look up school rankings, the San Dieguito Union High District (Torrey Pines, Carmel Valley Middle, Canyon Crest) all receive the highest rankings. As do all the schools in the Del Mar Union Elementary District (Carmel Del Mar, Torrey Hills, etc).

The San Diego Unified District is much more of a mixed bag, with some good, some okay, and some where I really wouldn’t want my kids to go to school.

http://school-ratings.com/cities/San_Diego.html

You can also do the same type of comparisons for Scripps Ranch, etc and it’s surrounding areas to see similar results.

[sdnerd]

Here’s some more data that I believe help explains a price premium:

Crime Rates per 1,000 Population for 2005.

http://www.sandiego.gov/police/pdf/ratesjandec2005.pdf

MURDER,RAPE,TOTAL VIOLENT,TOTAL PROPERTY

Carmel Valley:

0.00,0.06,0.76,19.14

Mira Mesa:

0.07,0.14,2.56,22.40

You can also look up school rankings, the San Dieguito Union High District (Torrey Pines, Carmel Valley Middle, Canyon Crest) all receive the highest rankings. As do all the schools in the Del Mar Union Elementary District (Carmel Del Mar, Torrey Hills, etc).

The San Diego Unified District is much more of a mixed bag, with some good, some okay, and some where I really wouldn’t want my kids to go to school.

http://school-ratings.com/cities/San_Diego.html

You can also do the same type of comparisons for Scripps Ranch, etc and it’s surrounding areas to see similar results.

[an]

I agree completely w/ nostradamus assessment. Yes, MM is not as nice as other north county cities. But it’s definitely no where near South Central LA either. Also, w/in Mira Mesa, it’s night and day in term if appearance as well. I’ve been living on the west end of Mira Mesa for almost 20 years now and I’ve never seen any gang activity on the west side. I did see some when I went to MMHS, but it’s mostly just juvenile gangster beating each other up. The biggest problem I see in MM is auto theft. Right now, if you compare 10 yr. old, 2000 sq-ft house in CV vs MM, the one in MM is ~35% cheaper. If that’s enough of a discount, I don’t know. That’s really up to the individual buyer.

[an]

I agree completely w/ nostradamus assessment. Yes, MM is not as nice as other north county cities. But it’s definitely no where near South Central LA either. Also, w/in Mira Mesa, it’s night and day in term if appearance as well. I’ve been living on the west end of Mira Mesa for almost 20 years now and I’ve never seen any gang activity on the west side. I did see some when I went to MMHS, but it’s mostly just juvenile gangster beating each other up. The biggest problem I see in MM is auto theft. Right now, if you compare 10 yr. old, 2000 sq-ft house in CV vs MM, the one in MM is ~35% cheaper. If that’s enough of a discount, I don’t know. That’s really up to the individual buyer.

[an]

I agree completely w/ nostradamus assessment. Yes, MM is not as nice as other north county cities. But it’s definitely no where near South Central LA either. Also, w/in Mira Mesa, it’s night and day in term if appearance as well. I’ve been living on the west end of Mira Mesa for almost 20 years now and I’ve never seen any gang activity on the west side. I did see some when I went to MMHS, but it’s mostly just juvenile gangster beating each other up. The biggest problem I see in MM is auto theft. Right now, if you compare 10 yr. old, 2000 sq-ft house in CV vs MM, the one in MM is ~35% cheaper. If that’s enough of a discount, I don’t know. That’s really up to the individual buyer.

[an]

I agree completely w/ nostradamus assessment. Yes, MM is not as nice as other north county cities. But it’s definitely no where near South Central LA either. Also, w/in Mira Mesa, it’s night and day in term if appearance as well. I’ve been living on the west end of Mira Mesa for almost 20 years now and I’ve never seen any gang activity on the west side. I did see some when I went to MMHS, but it’s mostly just juvenile gangster beating each other up. The biggest problem I see in MM is auto theft. Right now, if you compare 10 yr. old, 2000 sq-ft house in CV vs MM, the one in MM is ~35% cheaper. If that’s enough of a discount, I don’t know. That’s really up to the individual buyer.

[an]

I agree completely w/ nostradamus assessment. Yes, MM is not as nice as other north county cities. But it’s definitely no where near South Central LA either. Also, w/in Mira Mesa, it’s night and day in term if appearance as well. I’ve been living on the west end of Mira Mesa for almost 20 years now and I’ve never seen any gang activity on the west side. I did see some when I went to MMHS, but it’s mostly just juvenile gangster beating each other up. The biggest problem I see in MM is auto theft. Right now, if you compare 10 yr. old, 2000 sq-ft house in CV vs MM, the one in MM is ~35% cheaper. If that’s enough of a discount, I don’t know. That’s really up to the individual buyer.

[nostradamus]

Not really. From even your link,

The police stated that Lynn Sharpe Underwood leads the city's newly formed Gang Commission. "Mira Mesa is not particularly high in crime, thus fewer police" officers are deployed here.

Dave Collins, gang detective and former member of the anti-grafitti unit then spoke. He also said there are "a number of" Philipino gangs, comprising 5 to 12-15 members each. He implied these latter are less organized and less permanent.

5-member gangs?  Wow, better call in the armed forces.  Is this the Filipino gang that hangs out at Starbucks playing chess every day?  Those guys are bad-ass.  One time I saw one wearing his baseball cap at a slight, crooked angle.  It was highly gang-like.

As I said, I've been here for 12 years and know every inch of Mira Mesa.  I guess I'm lucky to be alive with all these gangs and bullet holes everywhere.

[nostradamus]

Not really. From even your link,

The police stated that Lynn Sharpe Underwood leads the city's newly formed Gang Commission. "Mira Mesa is not particularly high in crime, thus fewer police" officers are deployed here.

Dave Collins, gang detective and former member of the anti-grafitti unit then spoke. He also said there are "a number of" Philipino gangs, comprising 5 to 12-15 members each. He implied these latter are less organized and less permanent.

5-member gangs?  Wow, better call in the armed forces.  Is this the Filipino gang that hangs out at Starbucks playing chess every day?  Those guys are bad-ass.  One time I saw one wearing his baseball cap at a slight, crooked angle.  It was highly gang-like.

As I said, I've been here for 12 years and know every inch of Mira Mesa.  I guess I'm lucky to be alive with all these gangs and bullet holes everywhere.

[nostradamus]

Not really. From even your link,

The police stated that Lynn Sharpe Underwood leads the city's newly formed Gang Commission. "Mira Mesa is not particularly high in crime, thus fewer police" officers are deployed here.

Dave Collins, gang detective and former member of the anti-grafitti unit then spoke. He also said there are "a number of" Philipino gangs, comprising 5 to 12-15 members each. He implied these latter are less organized and less permanent.

5-member gangs?  Wow, better call in the armed forces.  Is this the Filipino gang that hangs out at Starbucks playing chess every day?  Those guys are bad-ass.  One time I saw one wearing his baseball cap at a slight, crooked angle.  It was highly gang-like.

As I said, I've been here for 12 years and know every inch of Mira Mesa.  I guess I'm lucky to be alive with all these gangs and bullet holes everywhere.

[nostradamus]

Not really. From even your link,

The police stated that Lynn Sharpe Underwood leads the city's newly formed Gang Commission. "Mira Mesa is not particularly high in crime, thus fewer police" officers are deployed here.

Dave Collins, gang detective and former member of the anti-grafitti unit then spoke. He also said there are "a number of" Philipino gangs, comprising 5 to 12-15 members each. He implied these latter are less organized and less permanent.

5-member gangs?  Wow, better call in the armed forces.  Is this the Filipino gang that hangs out at Starbucks playing chess every day?  Those guys are bad-ass.  One time I saw one wearing his baseball cap at a slight, crooked angle.  It was highly gang-like.

As I said, I've been here for 12 years and know every inch of Mira Mesa.  I guess I'm lucky to be alive with all these gangs and bullet holes everywhere.

[nostradamus]

Not really. From even your link,

The police stated that Lynn Sharpe Underwood leads the city's newly formed Gang Commission. "Mira Mesa is not particularly high in crime, thus fewer police" officers are deployed here.

Dave Collins, gang detective and former member of the anti-grafitti unit then spoke. He also said there are "a number of" Philipino gangs, comprising 5 to 12-15 members each. He implied these latter are less organized and less permanent.

5-member gangs?  Wow, better call in the armed forces.  Is this the Filipino gang that hangs out at Starbucks playing chess every day?  Those guys are bad-ass.  One time I saw one wearing his baseball cap at a slight, crooked angle.  It was highly gang-like.

As I said, I've been here for 12 years and know every inch of Mira Mesa.  I guess I'm lucky to be alive with all these gangs and bullet holes everywhere.

[sdnerd]

Mira Mesa Town Council Meeting
February 4, 2008
Featuring a presentation by the San Diego Police Department on crime and gangs in the area

”
12-18 months ago there “was a huge gang problem up here” (in Mira Mesa). The police did a lot of sweeps, made some arrests, and knocked the gang activity down.
”

http://www.crocuta.net/GangsInMiraMesa.htm

I’m not knocking MM, but it has been a problem on and off over the years.

I have a few friends who live there in various communities. It’s not uncommon to see bullet holes in fences there; seen it first hand. You just don’t see that in CV.

[sdnerd]

Mira Mesa Town Council Meeting
February 4, 2008
Featuring a presentation by the San Diego Police Department on crime and gangs in the area

”
12-18 months ago there “was a huge gang problem up here” (in Mira Mesa). The police did a lot of sweeps, made some arrests, and knocked the gang activity down.
”

http://www.crocuta.net/GangsInMiraMesa.htm

I’m not knocking MM, but it has been a problem on and off over the years.

I have a few friends who live there in various communities. It’s not uncommon to see bullet holes in fences there; seen it first hand. You just don’t see that in CV.

[sdnerd]

Mira Mesa Town Council Meeting
February 4, 2008
Featuring a presentation by the San Diego Police Department on crime and gangs in the area

”
12-18 months ago there “was a huge gang problem up here” (in Mira Mesa). The police did a lot of sweeps, made some arrests, and knocked the gang activity down.
”

http://www.crocuta.net/GangsInMiraMesa.htm

I’m not knocking MM, but it has been a problem on and off over the years.

I have a few friends who live there in various communities. It’s not uncommon to see bullet holes in fences there; seen it first hand. You just don’t see that in CV.

[sdnerd]

Mira Mesa Town Council Meeting
February 4, 2008
Featuring a presentation by the San Diego Police Department on crime and gangs in the area

”
12-18 months ago there “was a huge gang problem up here” (in Mira Mesa). The police did a lot of sweeps, made some arrests, and knocked the gang activity down.
”

http://www.crocuta.net/GangsInMiraMesa.htm

I’m not knocking MM, but it has been a problem on and off over the years.

I have a few friends who live there in various communities. It’s not uncommon to see bullet holes in fences there; seen it first hand. You just don’t see that in CV.

[nostradamus]

Asian gangs? Hmmmm… been living in Mira Mesa since about 1996. Never ran across a gang in 12 years there. MMHS ranks pretty high academically. Mira Mesa ain’t pretty but it ain’t no South Central LA, homie. Quite a livable town, just a bit old.

The fact is, there’s so little to do in MM besides go to the movies that if there were a gang surely they’d hang out somewhere else. There isn’t even a pool hall in Mira Mesa. Just a bunch of restaurants and strip malls and everything closes early just like in most of SD.

[nostradamus]

Asian gangs? Hmmmm… been living in Mira Mesa since about 1996. Never ran across a gang in 12 years there. MMHS ranks pretty high academically. Mira Mesa ain’t pretty but it ain’t no South Central LA, homie. Quite a livable town, just a bit old.

The fact is, there’s so little to do in MM besides go to the movies that if there were a gang surely they’d hang out somewhere else. There isn’t even a pool hall in Mira Mesa. Just a bunch of restaurants and strip malls and everything closes early just like in most of SD.

[nostradamus]

Asian gangs? Hmmmm… been living in Mira Mesa since about 1996. Never ran across a gang in 12 years there. MMHS ranks pretty high academically. Mira Mesa ain’t pretty but it ain’t no South Central LA, homie. Quite a livable town, just a bit old.

The fact is, there’s so little to do in MM besides go to the movies that if there were a gang surely they’d hang out somewhere else. There isn’t even a pool hall in Mira Mesa. Just a bunch of restaurants and strip malls and everything closes early just like in most of SD.

[nostradamus]

Asian gangs? Hmmmm… been living in Mira Mesa since about 1996. Never ran across a gang in 12 years there. MMHS ranks pretty high academically. Mira Mesa ain’t pretty but it ain’t no South Central LA, homie. Quite a livable town, just a bit old.

The fact is, there’s so little to do in MM besides go to the movies that if there were a gang surely they’d hang out somewhere else. There isn’t even a pool hall in Mira Mesa. Just a bunch of restaurants and strip malls and everything closes early just like in most of SD.

[sdnerd]

Re: Sandi

At least one consideration, amongst many:

One freeway exit away often means a different school district. So, for example Mira Mesa is just a few minutes away from CV – the reality is it’s night and day difference in terms of schools. You also won’t find many Asian gangs in CV, etc.

Now, whether or not that’s worth a 10%, 20%, 30%, etc price premium is up for debate. But I do believe that’s a big factor and will help keep prices propped up.

[sdnerd]

Re: Sandi

At least one consideration, amongst many:

One freeway exit away often means a different school district. So, for example Mira Mesa is just a few minutes away from CV – the reality is it’s night and day difference in terms of schools. You also won’t find many Asian gangs in CV, etc.

Now, whether or not that’s worth a 10%, 20%, 30%, etc price premium is up for debate. But I do believe that’s a big factor and will help keep prices propped up.

[sdnerd]

Re: Sandi

At least one consideration, amongst many:

One freeway exit away often means a different school district. So, for example Mira Mesa is just a few minutes away from CV – the reality is it’s night and day difference in terms of schools. You also won’t find many Asian gangs in CV, etc.

Now, whether or not that’s worth a 10%, 20%, 30%, etc price premium is up for debate. But I do believe that’s a big factor and will help keep prices propped up.

[sdnerd]

Re: Sandi

At least one consideration, amongst many:

One freeway exit away often means a different school district. So, for example Mira Mesa is just a few minutes away from CV – the reality is it’s night and day difference in terms of schools. You also won’t find many Asian gangs in CV, etc.

Now, whether or not that’s worth a 10%, 20%, 30%, etc price premium is up for debate. But I do believe that’s a big factor and will help keep prices propped up.

[Sandi Egan]

I think the main downforce for areas like CV, LJ and others is the price decline in nearby zip codes. If you can buy similar house one freeway exit away and it will cost you 30-40% less, you’ve GOT to consider that.
Prices in Penasquitos, Encinitas, Mira Mesa and other areas will eventually pull CV prices down. That, apparently, does take time.

[Sandi Egan]

I think the main downforce for areas like CV, LJ and others is the price decline in nearby zip codes. If you can buy similar house one freeway exit away and it will cost you 30-40% less, you’ve GOT to consider that.
Prices in Penasquitos, Encinitas, Mira Mesa and other areas will eventually pull CV prices down. That, apparently, does take time.

[Sandi Egan]

I think the main downforce for areas like CV, LJ and others is the price decline in nearby zip codes. If you can buy similar house one freeway exit away and it will cost you 30-40% less, you’ve GOT to consider that.
Prices in Penasquitos, Encinitas, Mira Mesa and other areas will eventually pull CV prices down. That, apparently, does take time.

[Sandi Egan]

I think the main downforce for areas like CV, LJ and others is the price decline in nearby zip codes. If you can buy similar house one freeway exit away and it will cost you 30-40% less, you’ve GOT to consider that.
Prices in Penasquitos, Encinitas, Mira Mesa and other areas will eventually pull CV prices down. That, apparently, does take time.

[SD Realtor]

Ilovecv –

Since I have been gathering lots of stats lately I did the same thing for CV… Data never lies. Sometimes it can be presented to hide things and other times anamolies need to be investigated because they can skew the data. However the data for resale CV homes is pretty straightforward. One thing that has become apparent to me is that the areas of strength have reduced losses simply due to lack of distress. Even in the absence of that distress you can see from the stats below that indeed, resale detached homes in CV are coming up on 15% below the highs in 2006.

If you look at my Saturday Night Stats post you can see some really interesting data from different areas to compare to. The thing that I am picking up is that in the absence of distress we are still indeed seeing depreciation. It takes the form of lower volume at first, and then after a year or two of reduced volume the cracks form and people do give in and sell at a lower price. As distress comes to light the process accelerates.

In the absence of distress CV will drift down slowly. Definitely single digits per year however at some point there will be distress for some. Perhaps not close to the numbers we see in Eastlake but I think it will happen.

Remember, I am one of those in the camp that does indeed believe different regions will find different floors at different times. I don’t believe any area is impervious to the declines though.

*******

As to new homes like Saratoga or Derby Hills, I am not so sure that is a fair comparison. No reseller can compete against a developer. Indeed those homes will sell and they will sell in a quick timeframe.

Data for 92130 resale of detached homes is below. If I included attached homes it would look much worse for the median

92130

2/1/01 – 3/1/01 30 sales, median price 674,913
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 52 sales, median price 711,094
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 41 sales, median price 824,466
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 29 sales, median price 979,950
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 30 sales, median price 1,160,533
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 21 sales, median price 1,189,619
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 31 sales, median price 1,017,023
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 19 sales, median price 954,670

[SD Realtor]

Ilovecv –

Since I have been gathering lots of stats lately I did the same thing for CV… Data never lies. Sometimes it can be presented to hide things and other times anamolies need to be investigated because they can skew the data. However the data for resale CV homes is pretty straightforward. One thing that has become apparent to me is that the areas of strength have reduced losses simply due to lack of distress. Even in the absence of that distress you can see from the stats below that indeed, resale detached homes in CV are coming up on 15% below the highs in 2006.

If you look at my Saturday Night Stats post you can see some really interesting data from different areas to compare to. The thing that I am picking up is that in the absence of distress we are still indeed seeing depreciation. It takes the form of lower volume at first, and then after a year or two of reduced volume the cracks form and people do give in and sell at a lower price. As distress comes to light the process accelerates.

In the absence of distress CV will drift down slowly. Definitely single digits per year however at some point there will be distress for some. Perhaps not close to the numbers we see in Eastlake but I think it will happen.

Remember, I am one of those in the camp that does indeed believe different regions will find different floors at different times. I don’t believe any area is impervious to the declines though.

*******

As to new homes like Saratoga or Derby Hills, I am not so sure that is a fair comparison. No reseller can compete against a developer. Indeed those homes will sell and they will sell in a quick timeframe.

Data for 92130 resale of detached homes is below. If I included attached homes it would look much worse for the median

92130

2/1/01 – 3/1/01 30 sales, median price 674,913
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 52 sales, median price 711,094
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 41 sales, median price 824,466
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 29 sales, median price 979,950
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 30 sales, median price 1,160,533
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 21 sales, median price 1,189,619
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 31 sales, median price 1,017,023
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 19 sales, median price 954,670

[SD Realtor]

Ilovecv –

Since I have been gathering lots of stats lately I did the same thing for CV… Data never lies. Sometimes it can be presented to hide things and other times anamolies need to be investigated because they can skew the data. However the data for resale CV homes is pretty straightforward. One thing that has become apparent to me is that the areas of strength have reduced losses simply due to lack of distress. Even in the absence of that distress you can see from the stats below that indeed, resale detached homes in CV are coming up on 15% below the highs in 2006.

If you look at my Saturday Night Stats post you can see some really interesting data from different areas to compare to. The thing that I am picking up is that in the absence of distress we are still indeed seeing depreciation. It takes the form of lower volume at first, and then after a year or two of reduced volume the cracks form and people do give in and sell at a lower price. As distress comes to light the process accelerates.

In the absence of distress CV will drift down slowly. Definitely single digits per year however at some point there will be distress for some. Perhaps not close to the numbers we see in Eastlake but I think it will happen.

Remember, I am one of those in the camp that does indeed believe different regions will find different floors at different times. I don’t believe any area is impervious to the declines though.

*******

As to new homes like Saratoga or Derby Hills, I am not so sure that is a fair comparison. No reseller can compete against a developer. Indeed those homes will sell and they will sell in a quick timeframe.

Data for 92130 resale of detached homes is below. If I included attached homes it would look much worse for the median

92130

2/1/01 – 3/1/01 30 sales, median price 674,913
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 52 sales, median price 711,094
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 41 sales, median price 824,466
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 29 sales, median price 979,950
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 30 sales, median price 1,160,533
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 21 sales, median price 1,189,619
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 31 sales, median price 1,017,023
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 19 sales, median price 954,670

[SD Realtor]

Ilovecv –

Since I have been gathering lots of stats lately I did the same thing for CV… Data never lies. Sometimes it can be presented to hide things and other times anamolies need to be investigated because they can skew the data. However the data for resale CV homes is pretty straightforward. One thing that has become apparent to me is that the areas of strength have reduced losses simply due to lack of distress. Even in the absence of that distress you can see from the stats below that indeed, resale detached homes in CV are coming up on 15% below the highs in 2006.

If you look at my Saturday Night Stats post you can see some really interesting data from different areas to compare to. The thing that I am picking up is that in the absence of distress we are still indeed seeing depreciation. It takes the form of lower volume at first, and then after a year or two of reduced volume the cracks form and people do give in and sell at a lower price. As distress comes to light the process accelerates.

In the absence of distress CV will drift down slowly. Definitely single digits per year however at some point there will be distress for some. Perhaps not close to the numbers we see in Eastlake but I think it will happen.

Remember, I am one of those in the camp that does indeed believe different regions will find different floors at different times. I don’t believe any area is impervious to the declines though.

*******

As to new homes like Saratoga or Derby Hills, I am not so sure that is a fair comparison. No reseller can compete against a developer. Indeed those homes will sell and they will sell in a quick timeframe.

Data for 92130 resale of detached homes is below. If I included attached homes it would look much worse for the median

92130

2/1/01 – 3/1/01 30 sales, median price 674,913
2/1/02 – 3/1/02 52 sales, median price 711,094
2/1/03 – 3/1/03 41 sales, median price 824,466
2/1/04 – 3/1/04 29 sales, median price 979,950
2/1/05 – 3/1/05 30 sales, median price 1,160,533
2/1/06 – 3/1/06 21 sales, median price 1,189,619
2/1/07 – 3/1/07 31 sales, median price 1,017,023
2/1/08 – 3/1/08 19 sales, median price 954,670

[[email protected]]

No, I don’t own in one of these communities and don’t work for Pardee. I just find it interesting that these new developments continue to be strong in the wake of most other parts of San Diego.

All four of the Saratoga houses are now in pending status. It will be interesting to see the closing prices but they weren’t on the market all that long to expect a huge difference from the list price.

Pardees prices on Derby Hill haven’t gone down and they continue to sell out new releases in a matter of days as recently as 2/23. Any thoughts on why these are staying so strong?

[[email protected]]

No, I don’t own in one of these communities and don’t work for Pardee. I just find it interesting that these new developments continue to be strong in the wake of most other parts of San Diego.

All four of the Saratoga houses are now in pending status. It will be interesting to see the closing prices but they weren’t on the market all that long to expect a huge difference from the list price.

Pardees prices on Derby Hill haven’t gone down and they continue to sell out new releases in a matter of days as recently as 2/23. Any thoughts on why these are staying so strong?

[[email protected]]

No, I don’t own in one of these communities and don’t work for Pardee. I just find it interesting that these new developments continue to be strong in the wake of most other parts of San Diego.

All four of the Saratoga houses are now in pending status. It will be interesting to see the closing prices but they weren’t on the market all that long to expect a huge difference from the list price.

Pardees prices on Derby Hill haven’t gone down and they continue to sell out new releases in a matter of days as recently as 2/23. Any thoughts on why these are staying so strong?

[[email protected]]

No, I don’t own in one of these communities and don’t work for Pardee. I just find it interesting that these new developments continue to be strong in the wake of most other parts of San Diego.

All four of the Saratoga houses are now in pending status. It will be interesting to see the closing prices but they weren’t on the market all that long to expect a huge difference from the list price.

Pardees prices on Derby Hill haven’t gone down and they continue to sell out new releases in a matter of days as recently as 2/23. Any thoughts on why these are staying so strong?

[Coronita]

On what data are you basing your opinion?

Um… There's plenty in belmont, cloverhurst, and other CCH community if you look at sales history and compare that the prior years sales.

For example: http://www.sdlookup.com/Property_Search-cloverhurst

 

But then again, you might think specifically the new pardee communities will be specially immune from other "lesser desirable communities in CCH"…

Let's revisit this thread and see where we're at today….

http://piggington.com/carmel_valley_pardee_dh_saratoga_carriagerun_holding_value

 

Carriage Run:

1)MLS 071091971 listed 11/30/2007: (Builder listing)

11371 BLACK COLT LANE

$823,875/ 1985 sqft

Still active. no takers yet.

 

Saratoga:

1) MLS 071089870/ listed 11/19/2007(builder listing)

5108 GREAT MEADOW DRIVE

$1,047,250/ 2724 sqft

Pending: I guess this is the one you meant as going pending. If I recall though, this is a builder listed unit. So I wonder if there are going to be some hidden incentives. You do realize the Pardee had offer some cash discounts/rebates/etc to units in undesirable locations. At least they did when we were looking for fun in Derby Hills.

 

2)086002322 listed 1/8/2008

5274 FOXBOROUGH PT

$1,150,000 /2769 sqft

Relisted : as 081012981

$1,074,900 (currently active, unless it recently went pending).

 

No takers yet.

3)081014020

10707 Heather Ridge

Currently listed active: $1,075,000

Still active (unless it went pending recently)

I believe this was previously listed
for $1.1-1.25M at 2700+ sf (yeah right)

Also note, last sale : $1,092,500 (05/22/2006), so this will be a loss (unless there was some hidden builder rebates from the intial sale)

No takers yet.

4) 086009417 Model home (builder selling)

10744 HEATHER RIDGE DR San Diego, CA 92130

$1,037,950

This model home is up for grabs less than other resales.

Also interesting listing price history

Feb 05, 2008	$1,075,900
Feb 12, 2008	$1,037,950

 

So this make me wonder. I'm willing to bet money that for the that mls 071089870 that went pending has some decent builder incentives. Like you said, the location is terrible. And if the builder had to lower the model to $1.037M which arguably is in a better location, fully decked out in options, and still no one is "jumping" on this, I'd be press to believe the first unit in the terrible location would sell without sizeable hidden incentive out there. We'll see.

I do think the model home will sell soon, over the next month, at least before any of the the other resales sell. 

 

 

Let's move on to DH:

1)086001831 5318 Foxhound Way

Still active: though as SDR mentioned, this was 100% financed at 1.184M. lol. Nice surburban SUV in the driveway btw…Probably also 100% financed too.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1381455

seller looks like he/she/they might be trying to flipp, given their asking price. Still no takers.

2) 5289 Foxhound Way

Don't know what happened to this listing.

 

ILCV, with all due respect, you seem awfully defensive about the Pardee community…Do you live in one of these homes or work for Pardee 🙂 ?

I mean, with all due respect, as nice as the Pardee communities are (mainly being new), they aren't that much more special than other tract homes in CV…And logically, it's unrealistic to see the rest of CV prices to come down while one particular community (Pardee) "holds value". There are plenty of tract communities that imho are nicer than Pardee's recent releases and all have shown price decline compared to prior years, and at least those communities have access to Sage Canyon Elementary.

Furthermore, unless you paid cash for your home, you've already loosing money on your home if you purchased 2004 or beyond. I think you can at least agree prices aren't going to be going UP over the next couple of years….your interest payments, any upgrades that don't transfer to well to appreciating your home, and commissions to any RE agent to sell your home are costs that puts almost all 2006+ buyers, most 2005+ buyers, and some 2004+ buyers already underwater.

 

[Coronita]

On what data are you basing your opinion?

Um… There's plenty in belmont, cloverhurst, and other CCH community if you look at sales history and compare that the prior years sales.

For example: http://www.sdlookup.com/Property_Search-cloverhurst

 

But then again, you might think specifically the new pardee communities will be specially immune from other "lesser desirable communities in CCH"…

Let's revisit this thread and see where we're at today….

http://piggington.com/carmel_valley_pardee_dh_saratoga_carriagerun_holding_value

 

Carriage Run:

1)MLS 071091971 listed 11/30/2007: (Builder listing)

11371 BLACK COLT LANE

$823,875/ 1985 sqft

Still active. no takers yet.

 

Saratoga:

1) MLS 071089870/ listed 11/19/2007(builder listing)

5108 GREAT MEADOW DRIVE

$1,047,250/ 2724 sqft

Pending: I guess this is the one you meant as going pending. If I recall though, this is a builder listed unit. So I wonder if there are going to be some hidden incentives. You do realize the Pardee had offer some cash discounts/rebates/etc to units in undesirable locations. At least they did when we were looking for fun in Derby Hills.

 

2)086002322 listed 1/8/2008

5274 FOXBOROUGH PT

$1,150,000 /2769 sqft

Relisted : as 081012981

$1,074,900 (currently active, unless it recently went pending).

 

No takers yet.

3)081014020

10707 Heather Ridge

Currently listed active: $1,075,000

Still active (unless it went pending recently)

I believe this was previously listed
for $1.1-1.25M at 2700+ sf (yeah right)

Also note, last sale : $1,092,500 (05/22/2006), so this will be a loss (unless there was some hidden builder rebates from the intial sale)

No takers yet.

4) 086009417 Model home (builder selling)

10744 HEATHER RIDGE DR San Diego, CA 92130

$1,037,950

This model home is up for grabs less than other resales.

Also interesting listing price history

Feb 05, 2008	$1,075,900
Feb 12, 2008	$1,037,950

 

So this make me wonder. I'm willing to bet money that for the that mls 071089870 that went pending has some decent builder incentives. Like you said, the location is terrible. And if the builder had to lower the model to $1.037M which arguably is in a better location, fully decked out in options, and still no one is "jumping" on this, I'd be press to believe the first unit in the terrible location would sell without sizeable hidden incentive out there. We'll see.

I do think the model home will sell soon, over the next month, at least before any of the the other resales sell. 

 

 

Let's move on to DH:

1)086001831 5318 Foxhound Way

Still active: though as SDR mentioned, this was 100% financed at 1.184M. lol. Nice surburban SUV in the driveway btw…Probably also 100% financed too.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1381455

seller looks like he/she/they might be trying to flipp, given their asking price. Still no takers.

2) 5289 Foxhound Way

Don't know what happened to this listing.

 

ILCV, with all due respect, you seem awfully defensive about the Pardee community…Do you live in one of these homes or work for Pardee 🙂 ?

I mean, with all due respect, as nice as the Pardee communities are (mainly being new), they aren't that much more special than other tract homes in CV…And logically, it's unrealistic to see the rest of CV prices to come down while one particular community (Pardee) "holds value". There are plenty of tract communities that imho are nicer than Pardee's recent releases and all have shown price decline compared to prior years, and at least those communities have access to Sage Canyon Elementary.

Furthermore, unless you paid cash for your home, you've already loosing money on your home if you purchased 2004 or beyond. I think you can at least agree prices aren't going to be going UP over the next couple of years….your interest payments, any upgrades that don't transfer to well to appreciating your home, and commissions to any RE agent to sell your home are costs that puts almost all 2006+ buyers, most 2005+ buyers, and some 2004+ buyers already underwater.

 

[Coronita]

On what data are you basing your opinion?

Um… There's plenty in belmont, cloverhurst, and other CCH community if you look at sales history and compare that the prior years sales.

For example: http://www.sdlookup.com/Property_Search-cloverhurst

 

But then again, you might think specifically the new pardee communities will be specially immune from other "lesser desirable communities in CCH"…

Let's revisit this thread and see where we're at today….

http://piggington.com/carmel_valley_pardee_dh_saratoga_carriagerun_holding_value

 

Carriage Run:

1)MLS 071091971 listed 11/30/2007: (Builder listing)

11371 BLACK COLT LANE

$823,875/ 1985 sqft

Still active. no takers yet.

 

Saratoga:

1) MLS 071089870/ listed 11/19/2007(builder listing)

5108 GREAT MEADOW DRIVE

$1,047,250/ 2724 sqft

Pending: I guess this is the one you meant as going pending. If I recall though, this is a builder listed unit. So I wonder if there are going to be some hidden incentives. You do realize the Pardee had offer some cash discounts/rebates/etc to units in undesirable locations. At least they did when we were looking for fun in Derby Hills.

 

2)086002322 listed 1/8/2008

5274 FOXBOROUGH PT

$1,150,000 /2769 sqft

Relisted : as 081012981

$1,074,900 (currently active, unless it recently went pending).

 

No takers yet.

3)081014020

10707 Heather Ridge

Currently listed active: $1,075,000

Still active (unless it went pending recently)

I believe this was previously listed
for $1.1-1.25M at 2700+ sf (yeah right)

Also note, last sale : $1,092,500 (05/22/2006), so this will be a loss (unless there was some hidden builder rebates from the intial sale)

No takers yet.

4) 086009417 Model home (builder selling)

10744 HEATHER RIDGE DR San Diego, CA 92130

$1,037,950

This model home is up for grabs less than other resales.

Also interesting listing price history

Feb 05, 2008	$1,075,900
Feb 12, 2008	$1,037,950

 

So this make me wonder. I'm willing to bet money that for the that mls 071089870 that went pending has some decent builder incentives. Like you said, the location is terrible. And if the builder had to lower the model to $1.037M which arguably is in a better location, fully decked out in options, and still no one is "jumping" on this, I'd be press to believe the first unit in the terrible location would sell without sizeable hidden incentive out there. We'll see.

I do think the model home will sell soon, over the next month, at least before any of the the other resales sell. 

 

 

Let's move on to DH:

1)086001831 5318 Foxhound Way

Still active: though as SDR mentioned, this was 100% financed at 1.184M. lol. Nice surburban SUV in the driveway btw…Probably also 100% financed too.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1381455

seller looks like he/she/they might be trying to flipp, given their asking price. Still no takers.

2) 5289 Foxhound Way

Don't know what happened to this listing.

 

ILCV, with all due respect, you seem awfully defensive about the Pardee community…Do you live in one of these homes or work for Pardee 🙂 ?

I mean, with all due respect, as nice as the Pardee communities are (mainly being new), they aren't that much more special than other tract homes in CV…And logically, it's unrealistic to see the rest of CV prices to come down while one particular community (Pardee) "holds value". There are plenty of tract communities that imho are nicer than Pardee's recent releases and all have shown price decline compared to prior years, and at least those communities have access to Sage Canyon Elementary.

Furthermore, unless you paid cash for your home, you've already loosing money on your home if you purchased 2004 or beyond. I think you can at least agree prices aren't going to be going UP over the next couple of years….your interest payments, any upgrades that don't transfer to well to appreciating your home, and commissions to any RE agent to sell your home are costs that puts almost all 2006+ buyers, most 2005+ buyers, and some 2004+ buyers already underwater.

 

[Coronita]

On what data are you basing your opinion?

Um… There's plenty in belmont, cloverhurst, and other CCH community if you look at sales history and compare that the prior years sales.

For example: http://www.sdlookup.com/Property_Search-cloverhurst

 

But then again, you might think specifically the new pardee communities will be specially immune from other "lesser desirable communities in CCH"…

Let's revisit this thread and see where we're at today….

http://piggington.com/carmel_valley_pardee_dh_saratoga_carriagerun_holding_value

 

Carriage Run:

1)MLS 071091971 listed 11/30/2007: (Builder listing)

11371 BLACK COLT LANE

$823,875/ 1985 sqft

Still active. no takers yet.

 

Saratoga:

1) MLS 071089870/ listed 11/19/2007(builder listing)

5108 GREAT MEADOW DRIVE

$1,047,250/ 2724 sqft

Pending: I guess this is the one you meant as going pending. If I recall though, this is a builder listed unit. So I wonder if there are going to be some hidden incentives. You do realize the Pardee had offer some cash discounts/rebates/etc to units in undesirable locations. At least they did when we were looking for fun in Derby Hills.

 

2)086002322 listed 1/8/2008

5274 FOXBOROUGH PT

$1,150,000 /2769 sqft

Relisted : as 081012981

$1,074,900 (currently active, unless it recently went pending).

 

No takers yet.

3)081014020

10707 Heather Ridge

Currently listed active: $1,075,000

Still active (unless it went pending recently)

I believe this was previously listed
for $1.1-1.25M at 2700+ sf (yeah right)

Also note, last sale : $1,092,500 (05/22/2006), so this will be a loss (unless there was some hidden builder rebates from the intial sale)

No takers yet.

4) 086009417 Model home (builder selling)

10744 HEATHER RIDGE DR San Diego, CA 92130

$1,037,950

This model home is up for grabs less than other resales.

Also interesting listing price history

Feb 05, 2008	$1,075,900
Feb 12, 2008	$1,037,950

 

So this make me wonder. I'm willing to bet money that for the that mls 071089870 that went pending has some decent builder incentives. Like you said, the location is terrible. And if the builder had to lower the model to $1.037M which arguably is in a better location, fully decked out in options, and still no one is "jumping" on this, I'd be press to believe the first unit in the terrible location would sell without sizeable hidden incentive out there. We'll see.

I do think the model home will sell soon, over the next month, at least before any of the the other resales sell. 

 

 

Let's move on to DH:

1)086001831 5318 Foxhound Way

Still active: though as SDR mentioned, this was 100% financed at 1.184M. lol. Nice surburban SUV in the driveway btw…Probably also 100% financed too.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1381455

seller looks like he/she/they might be trying to flipp, given their asking price. Still no takers.

2) 5289 Foxhound Way

Don't know what happened to this listing.

 

ILCV, with all due respect, you seem awfully defensive about the Pardee community…Do you live in one of these homes or work for Pardee 🙂 ?

I mean, with all due respect, as nice as the Pardee communities are (mainly being new), they aren't that much more special than other tract homes in CV…And logically, it's unrealistic to see the rest of CV prices to come down while one particular community (Pardee) "holds value". There are plenty of tract communities that imho are nicer than Pardee's recent releases and all have shown price decline compared to prior years, and at least those communities have access to Sage Canyon Elementary.

Furthermore, unless you paid cash for your home, you've already loosing money on your home if you purchased 2004 or beyond. I think you can at least agree prices aren't going to be going UP over the next couple of years….your interest payments, any upgrades that don't transfer to well to appreciating your home, and commissions to any RE agent to sell your home are costs that puts almost all 2006+ buyers, most 2005+ buyers, and some 2004+ buyers already underwater.

 

[[email protected]]

On what data are you basing your opinion?

[[email protected]]

On what data are you basing your opinion?

[[email protected]]

On what data are you basing your opinion?

[[email protected]]

On what data are you basing your opinion?

[Coronita]

Prices in Carmel Country Highlands seem to be holding.

um… no… Not in free fall, but definitely not "holding"

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Prices in Carmel Country Highlands seem to be holding.

um… no… Not in free fall, but definitely not "holding"

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Prices in Carmel Country Highlands seem to be holding.

um… no… Not in free fall, but definitely not "holding"

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Prices in Carmel Country Highlands seem to be holding.

um… no… Not in free fall, but definitely not "holding"

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[[email protected]]

Prices in Carmel Country Highlands seem to be holding. One of the last Saratoga houses just went into pending and the rumor is that it was over $1M (even though it’s front door is feet from Carmel Mountain Road!). There are three houses in Saratoga now – all are the biggest model at approx. 2700 sf with prices of $1.075, 1.034, and $1.075-$1.125.

There are two Derby Hill resales still available (Plan 2 at $1.59-1.69 and a Plan 1 at $1.299). There is a new release at Derby Hill tomorrow and the prices are still just as high. The December and January releases sold out the same weekend. I believe there are three Derby Hill’s in Pardee’s inventory to be completed in April and July but two are Plan 1’s that have a steep hill behind them and the third is a very pricey Plan 3).

[[email protected]]

Prices in Carmel Country Highlands seem to be holding. One of the last Saratoga houses just went into pending and the rumor is that it was over $1M (even though it’s front door is feet from Carmel Mountain Road!). There are three houses in Saratoga now – all are the biggest model at approx. 2700 sf with prices of $1.075, 1.034, and $1.075-$1.125.

There are two Derby Hill resales still available (Plan 2 at $1.59-1.69 and a Plan 1 at $1.299). There is a new release at Derby Hill tomorrow and the prices are still just as high. The December and January releases sold out the same weekend. I believe there are three Derby Hill’s in Pardee’s inventory to be completed in April and July but two are Plan 1’s that have a steep hill behind them and the third is a very pricey Plan 3).

[[email protected]]

Prices in Carmel Country Highlands seem to be holding. One of the last Saratoga houses just went into pending and the rumor is that it was over $1M (even though it’s front door is feet from Carmel Mountain Road!). There are three houses in Saratoga now – all are the biggest model at approx. 2700 sf with prices of $1.075, 1.034, and $1.075-$1.125.

There are two Derby Hill resales still available (Plan 2 at $1.59-1.69 and a Plan 1 at $1.299). There is a new release at Derby Hill tomorrow and the prices are still just as high. The December and January releases sold out the same weekend. I believe there are three Derby Hill’s in Pardee’s inventory to be completed in April and July but two are Plan 1’s that have a steep hill behind them and the third is a very pricey Plan 3).

[[email protected]]

Prices in Carmel Country Highlands seem to be holding. One of the last Saratoga houses just went into pending and the rumor is that it was over $1M (even though it’s front door is feet from Carmel Mountain Road!). There are three houses in Saratoga now – all are the biggest model at approx. 2700 sf with prices of $1.075, 1.034, and $1.075-$1.125.

There are two Derby Hill resales still available (Plan 2 at $1.59-1.69 and a Plan 1 at $1.299). There is a new release at Derby Hill tomorrow and the prices are still just as high. The December and January releases sold out the same weekend. I believe there are three Derby Hill’s in Pardee’s inventory to be completed in April and July but two are Plan 1’s that have a steep hill behind them and the third is a very pricey Plan 3).

[Anonymous]

I’ve been watching the CV market as well. Prices are sticky coming down. I don’t think they will come down as much as East Lake or N. Oceanside but I’ve got to believe we will see a decline of 15% or so during the next 12 months. (I think tertiary areas like Vista, Escondido, Chula might see declines of 20% to 25% more.) I live in Denver and wouldn’t mind moving back. I’m not real motivated, and I worry about moving back when tax revenues are much lower and school funding is whacked. But CV would be a good place to raise kids. Not that I know for sure, since I live in Denver, but the schools seem awfully good and I like the parks and general location. I lived in SD many years ago and I go there a few times a year, so I have some idea of the area. I don’t want to risk being a knife catcher so I will get more serious the first quarter of next year.

[Anonymous]

I’ve been watching the CV market as well. Prices are sticky coming down. I don’t think they will come down as much as East Lake or N. Oceanside but I’ve got to believe we will see a decline of 15% or so during the next 12 months. (I think tertiary areas like Vista, Escondido, Chula might see declines of 20% to 25% more.) I live in Denver and wouldn’t mind moving back. I’m not real motivated, and I worry about moving back when tax revenues are much lower and school funding is whacked. But CV would be a good place to raise kids. Not that I know for sure, since I live in Denver, but the schools seem awfully good and I like the parks and general location. I lived in SD many years ago and I go there a few times a year, so I have some idea of the area. I don’t want to risk being a knife catcher so I will get more serious the first quarter of next year.

[Anonymous]

I’ve been watching the CV market as well. Prices are sticky coming down. I don’t think they will come down as much as East Lake or N. Oceanside but I’ve got to believe we will see a decline of 15% or so during the next 12 months. (I think tertiary areas like Vista, Escondido, Chula might see declines of 20% to 25% more.) I live in Denver and wouldn’t mind moving back. I’m not real motivated, and I worry about moving back when tax revenues are much lower and school funding is whacked. But CV would be a good place to raise kids. Not that I know for sure, since I live in Denver, but the schools seem awfully good and I like the parks and general location. I lived in SD many years ago and I go there a few times a year, so I have some idea of the area. I don’t want to risk being a knife catcher so I will get more serious the first quarter of next year.

[Anonymous]

I’ve been watching the CV market as well. Prices are sticky coming down. I don’t think they will come down as much as East Lake or N. Oceanside but I’ve got to believe we will see a decline of 15% or so during the next 12 months. (I think tertiary areas like Vista, Escondido, Chula might see declines of 20% to 25% more.) I live in Denver and wouldn’t mind moving back. I’m not real motivated, and I worry about moving back when tax revenues are much lower and school funding is whacked. But CV would be a good place to raise kids. Not that I know for sure, since I live in Denver, but the schools seem awfully good and I like the parks and general location. I lived in SD many years ago and I go there a few times a year, so I have some idea of the area. I don’t want to risk being a knife catcher so I will get more serious the first quarter of next year.

[Coronita]

So someone on in my neighborhood just put a house on the market while I was out on vacation, and it seemed to have gone into escrow pretty quickly…like within a week…….BUT…. I think it's because it was priced right. For reference, the house was priced back at early 2004 levels. I don't think the house was for sale before I left, and I know it's in escrow now. The asking price was well below $1mil for approximately 2600+sqft.. …..and close to other's purchase price around early 2004. I won't venture what that means or which this home, but those with MLS can probably figure out which one.

The seller probably could have gotten slightly more if they uped the asking price, at the risk of waiting months…but it seemed like they wanted to sell pretty quickly… According to tax records, it seems like the seller was the original owner, so provided he/she/they didn't refinance to buy crap (which judging their modest appearance– they didn't), it seems like they still pocketed quite a bit from this transaction.

So,yes, it seems prices have fallen. Though this is just 1 transaction, it seems like pricing something at the early 2004 in a decent location in CV can generate some decent interest. When we'll start seeing 2003 prices, well that should happen soon.

Ironically someone else on the street that's been selling (and the poor knife catcher that bought) went into escrow with an almost identical unit (with nice upgrades) for about $150k more. Don't know final closing price yet, but this one took 3+ months to find a knife catcher.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

So someone on in my neighborhood just put a house on the market while I was out on vacation, and it seemed to have gone into escrow pretty quickly…like within a week…….BUT…. I think it's because it was priced right. For reference, the house was priced back at early 2004 levels. I don't think the house was for sale before I left, and I know it's in escrow now. The asking price was well below $1mil for approximately 2600+sqft.. …..and close to other's purchase price around early 2004. I won't venture what that means or which this home, but those with MLS can probably figure out which one.

The seller probably could have gotten slightly more if they uped the asking price, at the risk of waiting months…but it seemed like they wanted to sell pretty quickly… According to tax records, it seems like the seller was the original owner, so provided he/she/they didn't refinance to buy crap (which judging their modest appearance– they didn't), it seems like they still pocketed quite a bit from this transaction.

So,yes, it seems prices have fallen. Though this is just 1 transaction, it seems like pricing something at the early 2004 in a decent location in CV can generate some decent interest. When we'll start seeing 2003 prices, well that should happen soon.

Ironically someone else on the street that's been selling (and the poor knife catcher that bought) went into escrow with an almost identical unit (with nice upgrades) for about $150k more. Don't know final closing price yet, but this one took 3+ months to find a knife catcher.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

So someone on in my neighborhood just put a house on the market while I was out on vacation, and it seemed to have gone into escrow pretty quickly…like within a week…….BUT…. I think it's because it was priced right. For reference, the house was priced back at early 2004 levels. I don't think the house was for sale before I left, and I know it's in escrow now. The asking price was well below $1mil for approximately 2600+sqft.. …..and close to other's purchase price around early 2004. I won't venture what that means or which this home, but those with MLS can probably figure out which one.

The seller probably could have gotten slightly more if they uped the asking price, at the risk of waiting months…but it seemed like they wanted to sell pretty quickly… According to tax records, it seems like the seller was the original owner, so provided he/she/they didn't refinance to buy crap (which judging their modest appearance– they didn't), it seems like they still pocketed quite a bit from this transaction.

So,yes, it seems prices have fallen. Though this is just 1 transaction, it seems like pricing something at the early 2004 in a decent location in CV can generate some decent interest. When we'll start seeing 2003 prices, well that should happen soon.

Ironically someone else on the street that's been selling (and the poor knife catcher that bought) went into escrow with an almost identical unit (with nice upgrades) for about $150k more. Don't know final closing price yet, but this one took 3+ months to find a knife catcher.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

So someone on in my neighborhood just put a house on the market while I was out on vacation, and it seemed to have gone into escrow pretty quickly…like within a week…….BUT…. I think it's because it was priced right. For reference, the house was priced back at early 2004 levels. I don't think the house was for sale before I left, and I know it's in escrow now. The asking price was well below $1mil for approximately 2600+sqft.. …..and close to other's purchase price around early 2004. I won't venture what that means or which this home, but those with MLS can probably figure out which one.

The seller probably could have gotten slightly more if they uped the asking price, at the risk of waiting months…but it seemed like they wanted to sell pretty quickly… According to tax records, it seems like the seller was the original owner, so provided he/she/they didn't refinance to buy crap (which judging their modest appearance– they didn't), it seems like they still pocketed quite a bit from this transaction.

So,yes, it seems prices have fallen. Though this is just 1 transaction, it seems like pricing something at the early 2004 in a decent location in CV can generate some decent interest. When we'll start seeing 2003 prices, well that should happen soon.

Ironically someone else on the street that's been selling (and the poor knife catcher that bought) went into escrow with an almost identical unit (with nice upgrades) for about $150k more. Don't know final closing price yet, but this one took 3+ months to find a knife catcher.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[SD Realtor]

Hi Newbiz,

I would agree with what the others said about CV with regards to it coming down. In general CV is still stuck in ultra sticky mode because it is a desired destination but I do feel it has come down. Not much distress there though.

As far as Scripps goes I am just as frustrated. Essentially the 11494 Winding Ridge property that is in escrow right now is selling at a 2003 price level for that west side of Scripps that you are on, up on the hill. While that is not the price dump you want, that is still not bad. I do agree that CV is stickier then Scripps and I believe that CV is in general more desireable then Scripps due to location and proximity.

In the year of 2000 there were some sales for 3000+ sf homes in your area for 600 and up. By 2001 they were in the mid 700’s. Can they run down to the 600’s again in 3 years? Perhaps they can. I don’t think they will but ya never know… depends on employment. We have a big notch in the employment picture and a runup in rates, then yeah they MAY drop to that level.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Newbiz,

I would agree with what the others said about CV with regards to it coming down. In general CV is still stuck in ultra sticky mode because it is a desired destination but I do feel it has come down. Not much distress there though.

As far as Scripps goes I am just as frustrated. Essentially the 11494 Winding Ridge property that is in escrow right now is selling at a 2003 price level for that west side of Scripps that you are on, up on the hill. While that is not the price dump you want, that is still not bad. I do agree that CV is stickier then Scripps and I believe that CV is in general more desireable then Scripps due to location and proximity.

In the year of 2000 there were some sales for 3000+ sf homes in your area for 600 and up. By 2001 they were in the mid 700’s. Can they run down to the 600’s again in 3 years? Perhaps they can. I don’t think they will but ya never know… depends on employment. We have a big notch in the employment picture and a runup in rates, then yeah they MAY drop to that level.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Newbiz,

I would agree with what the others said about CV with regards to it coming down. In general CV is still stuck in ultra sticky mode because it is a desired destination but I do feel it has come down. Not much distress there though.

As far as Scripps goes I am just as frustrated. Essentially the 11494 Winding Ridge property that is in escrow right now is selling at a 2003 price level for that west side of Scripps that you are on, up on the hill. While that is not the price dump you want, that is still not bad. I do agree that CV is stickier then Scripps and I believe that CV is in general more desireable then Scripps due to location and proximity.

In the year of 2000 there were some sales for 3000+ sf homes in your area for 600 and up. By 2001 they were in the mid 700’s. Can they run down to the 600’s again in 3 years? Perhaps they can. I don’t think they will but ya never know… depends on employment. We have a big notch in the employment picture and a runup in rates, then yeah they MAY drop to that level.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Newbiz,

I would agree with what the others said about CV with regards to it coming down. In general CV is still stuck in ultra sticky mode because it is a desired destination but I do feel it has come down. Not much distress there though.

As far as Scripps goes I am just as frustrated. Essentially the 11494 Winding Ridge property that is in escrow right now is selling at a 2003 price level for that west side of Scripps that you are on, up on the hill. While that is not the price dump you want, that is still not bad. I do agree that CV is stickier then Scripps and I believe that CV is in general more desireable then Scripps due to location and proximity.

In the year of 2000 there were some sales for 3000+ sf homes in your area for 600 and up. By 2001 they were in the mid 700’s. Can they run down to the 600’s again in 3 years? Perhaps they can. I don’t think they will but ya never know… depends on employment. We have a big notch in the employment picture and a runup in rates, then yeah they MAY drop to that level.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Newbiz,

I would agree with what the others said about CV with regards to it coming down. In general CV is still stuck in ultra sticky mode because it is a desired destination but I do feel it has come down. Not much distress there though.

As far as Scripps goes I am just as frustrated. Essentially the 11494 Winding Ridge property that is in escrow right now is selling at a 2003 price level for that west side of Scripps that you are on, up on the hill. While that is not the price dump you want, that is still not bad. I do agree that CV is stickier then Scripps and I believe that CV is in general more desireable then Scripps due to location and proximity.

In the year of 2000 there were some sales for 3000+ sf homes in your area for 600 and up. By 2001 they were in the mid 700’s. Can they run down to the 600’s again in 3 years? Perhaps they can. I don’t think they will but ya never know… depends on employment. We have a big notch in the employment picture and a runup in rates, then yeah they MAY drop to that level.

SD Realtor

[jumbo]

Carmel Valley mediain only declined 2.9% in 2007. Is 2008 really going to be dramatically different? I just got my rent raised 12% so that may get me off the fence to buy this year. We’ll see how the new conforming loan limits and rates shake out in the next couple of months.

[donaldduckmoore]

trial

[donaldduckmoore]

trial

[donaldduckmoore]

trial

[donaldduckmoore]

trial

[donaldduckmoore]

trial

[jumbo]

Carmel Valley mediain only declined 2.9% in 2007. Is 2008 really going to be dramatically different? I just got my rent raised 12% so that may get me off the fence to buy this year. We’ll see how the new conforming loan limits and rates shake out in the next couple of months.

[jumbo]

Carmel Valley mediain only declined 2.9% in 2007. Is 2008 really going to be dramatically different? I just got my rent raised 12% so that may get me off the fence to buy this year. We’ll see how the new conforming loan limits and rates shake out in the next couple of months.

[jumbo]

Carmel Valley mediain only declined 2.9% in 2007. Is 2008 really going to be dramatically different? I just got my rent raised 12% so that may get me off the fence to buy this year. We’ll see how the new conforming loan limits and rates shake out in the next couple of months.

[jumbo]

Carmel Valley mediain only declined 2.9% in 2007. Is 2008 really going to be dramatically different? I just got my rent raised 12% so that may get me off the fence to buy this year. We’ll see how the new conforming loan limits and rates shake out in the next couple of months.

[Author]

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