98.7 perc riverside icu beds full today

[outtamojo]

[quote=The-Shoveler][quote=scaredyclassic]how did i get so old and worn out[/quote]

To be honest I think the stress of this whole thing is wearing on everybody.[/quote]

The stress is from the way things aren’t working and the knowledge that things could be and should be better.

Things go double for us in the medical field.

On a brighter note, looks like we are going to open a new pandemic office . Such a fresh imaginative approach!

[Coronita]

Find a hobby. Breath…. Relax…

I’m on my 4th attempt at trying to paint my trunk lid of my old car. Now that’s stressful and frustrating….

I think i need to buy a better HVLP paint gun. I might do that this weekend at Harbor Freight.

[svelte]

[quote=zk]

Nothing in either of those articles says a vaccine is “unlikely to work.”

….

There is some concern that we won’t find one. That is possible. But likely? If anyone is saying that it’s likely that we won’t find one that works (and I haven’t read anyone saying that) they’re in the minority.[/quote]

?

“unlikely to work” = “won’t find one” = “won’t find one that works”.

If we “find” a vaccine and it doesn’t work, then it wasn’t a vaccine, was it?

[zk]

Looks like staffing is more of an issue than ICU beds for Riverside County.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-29/riverside-county-icu-beds-hit-99-capacity-the-situation-may-not-be-as-dire-as-it-seems

[outtamojo]

Some are being sent to NorCal
https://www.mercurynews.com/overwhelmed-southern-california-transferring-coronavirus-patients-to-bay-area-hospitals

[DWCAP]

[quote=zk][quote=DWCAP]

“We’ve tried getting vaccines for coronaviruses before, particularly SARS and MERS. We just haven’t done it yet. We think this is going to be a hard effort.”[/quote]

Nothing in either of those articles says a vaccine is “unlikely to work.”

There is a lot of concern that finding a vaccine will take more time than we would like. There is concern that it’ll have to be taken annually or that it will not be 100% effective.

There is some concern that we won’t find one. That is possible. But likely? If anyone is saying that it’s likely that we won’t find one that works (and I haven’t read anyone saying that) they’re in the minority.[/quote]

I don’t understand. what standard are you using? We have never created a Coronavirus vaccine that is acceptable after 30+ years of trying. We have new, poorly understood, highly contagious virus which is able to spread without and even before symptoms. We have an virus that seems to prey upon the sick and infirm, who are the most difficult to defend.

Please define ‘unlikely to work’ because ‘Thing we have never done before in a time frame we have never accomplished’ seems to qualify to me.

The FDA just announced that any approved vaccine would need to be 50% effect or better to be approved in full phase III clinical trials. This is inline with our best flu vaccines, and only means 1/2 people are protected/ symptoms reduced per vaccination. Flu season is an annual thing that claims tens of thousands of lives annually, and we can’t stop it. I need to know what you mean by ‘work’ because I think most people erroneously think it means ‘stop the spread of COVID-19’. Even the experts are not holding out for that.

[spdrun]

50% is most of the way to herd immunity … it would at least allow for much less drastic precautions against spread. Assuming that herd immunity is 60-70%, not lower as more recent studies suggest.

[barnaby33]

let’s all throw caution to the wind because we’re all going to get it and party up.

Now that’s a straw man argument! Prophylactics will reduce the risk to you now, not society over the medium to long term.
Josh

[barnaby33]

To the poster who wants me to differentiate between treatment and cure, why? We have neither and the vast preponderance of evidence screams loudly that we will not be able to produce, test and manufacture either in a time frame which would mitigate anybody from catching this if they are susceptible.

The amount of fuzzy thinking and shiny graphics is just stunning. People simply do not want to accept reality. It reminds me of why religion remains popular. You’re going to die folks. So am I. I’d like it to be later rather than sooner, but sadly it’s not entirely up to me me me….

Wear a mask if you like the virtue signaling as I do. Avoid others as the only real way to stave off your individual risk (just know that you are willingly contributing to other forms of death by doing so.)

In a case like the Corona virus and with a govt as hopelessly broken as we have right now, there is practically speaking no cure or effective blocking treatment that can be deployed, hence herd immunity is the ONLY way to restore normalcy.

Josh

[zk]

[quote=DWCAP]
[quote=zk][quote=DWCAP]

“We’ve tried getting vaccines for coronaviruses before, particularly SARS and MERS. We just haven’t done it yet. We think this is going to be a hard effort.”[/quote]

Nothing in either of those articles says a vaccine is “unlikely to work.”

There is a lot of concern that finding a vaccine will take more time than we would like. There is concern that it’ll have to be taken annually or that it will not be 100% effective.

There is some concern that we won’t find one. That is possible. But likely? If anyone is saying that it’s likely that we won’t find one that works (and I haven’t read anyone saying that) they’re in the minority.

[/quote]

I don’t understand. what standard are you using? We have never created a Coronavirus vaccine that is acceptable after 30+ years of trying. We have new, poorly understood, highly contagious virus which is able to spread without and even before symptoms. We have an virus that seems to prey upon the sick and infirm, who are the most difficult to defend.

Please define ‘unlikely to work’ because ‘Thing we have never done before in a time frame we have never accomplished’ seems to qualify to me.

The FDA just announced that any approved vaccine would need to be 50% effect or better to be approved in full phase III clinical trials. This is inline with our best flu vaccines, and only means 1/2 people are protected/ symptoms reduced per vaccination. Flu season is an annual thing that claims tens of thousands of lives annually, and we can’t stop it. I need to know what you mean by ‘work’ because I think most people erroneously think it means ‘stop the spread of COVID-19’. Even the experts are not holding out for that.[/quote]

You’ve quoted me out of context. My response of “Nothing in either of those articles says a vaccine is ‘unlikely to work’…“ was in response to your post that had links to two articles (neither of which said the vaccine was unlikely to work). It was not in response to the post that you showed it was in response to. Please don’t quote me out of context.

[quote=DWCAP]

I don’t understand. what standard are you using? We have never created a Coronavirus vaccine that is acceptable after 30+ years of trying. We have new, poorly understood, highly contagious virus which is able to spread without and even before symptoms. We have an virus that seems to prey upon the sick and infirm, who are the most difficult to defend.

Please define ‘unlikely to work’ because ‘Thing we have never done before in a time frame we have never accomplished’ seems to qualify to me.
[/quote]
That certainly is concerning. But the magnitude of this problem is such that unprecedented resources will be spent on it. It’s certainly possible that that will result in unprecedented results. (I’ll address the standard later in the post.)

In any case, I’m not saying a vaccine is likely to work. I don’t know, and I’m trying to find out. I asked, in response to a statement of “a vaccine is unlikely to work” the question “where are you getting that from?” It wasn’t a rhetorical question. I am concerned with whether a vaccine will work (as everybody should be) and if there’s credible information saying that it’s unlikely to work, I want to know about it. You provided two articles, neither of which said a vaccine is unlikely to work.

I am certainly open to credible information that says a vaccine is unlikely to work. If it’s out there, I really very much want to see it. I’m trying to get at the truth, as always. I just haven’t seen such information out there yet. I thought livinincali knew something that I didn’t, so I asked about it. I’m asking you the same thing.

The fact that we’ve never developed a vaccine for a coronavirus certainly is concerning. One could make the argument that that makes developing a vaccine for this coronavirus unlikely. But I’d like to see that argument made from a scientist – or preferably several or even a consensus of scientists – who are experts in the field. So far I’ve seen some scientists who say it may not be possible or “we think this is going to be a hard effort.” So I’m on board with those positions. But I haven’t seen “unlikely” (or anything equivalent to “unlikely”) from any scientists yet.

[quote=DWCAP]

The FDA just announced that any approved vaccine would need to be 50% effect or better to be approved in full phase III clinical trials. This is inline with our best flu vaccines, and only means 1/2 people are protected/ symptoms reduced per vaccination. Flu season is an annual thing that claims tens of thousands of lives annually, and we can’t stop it. I need to know what you mean by ‘work’ because I think most people erroneously think it means ‘stop the spread of COVID-19’. Even the experts are not holding out for that.[/quote]

By “work” I don’t mean completely eradicate. I mean, at a minimum, provide the same kind of protection as a flu vaccine. You might still get it, but you’re a lot less likely to get very sick or die from it.

Also, I could be wrong, but I don’t think that 50% effective means that only half the people are protected/symptoms reduced. That would mean that half the people get no protection at all. I don’t think that’s the case. I read the CDC’s page on it, and it’s a bit unclear. If you have any clarification, I’d be interested to read it.

[zk]

[quote=barnaby33]

To the poster who wants me to differentiate between treatment and cure, why?
[/quote]
If you’re talking about me, I wasn’t asking you to differentiate between treatment and cure. I was asking you to differentiate between a vaccine and a treatment/cure. A vaccine is something you get before you get the disease, and it prevents you from getting it or prevents you from getting a bad case of it. A treatment mitigates the effects of the disease after you get it. A cure eliminates the disease after you get it. The reason I was asking you to differentiate is because I wanted you to show me the evidence that a vaccine wasn’t going to happen. You gave me evidence that a treatment or a cure won’t happen.

[quote=barnaby33]
We have neither and the vast preponderance of evidence screams loudly that we will not be able to produce, test and manufacture either in a time frame which would mitigate anybody from catching this if they are susceptible.
[/quote]

Show me this vast preponderance of loudly screaming evidence that shows we won’t get a vaccine in time to keep susceptible people from getting COVID. (If, indeed, you think we won’t have a vaccine. You’ve really only addressed treatments and cures so far.) I am genuinely interested in seeing it.

[quote=barnaby33]

The amount of fuzzy thinking and shiny graphics is just stunning.
[/quote]
What fuzzy thinking, exactly?
[quote=barnaby33]

People simply do not want to accept reality.
[/quote]
I’m only interested in reality. That’s why I’m asking you to show me evidence of what you’re talking about.

[quote=barnaby33]
Wear a mask if you like the virtue signaling as I do.
[/quote]
Do you think that virtue signaling is the only thing masks are good for?

[quote=barnaby33]

In a case like the Corona virus and with a govt as hopelessly broken as we have right now, there is practically speaking no cure or effective blocking treatment that can be deployed, hence herd immunity is the ONLY way to restore normalcy.

[/quote]

Herd immunity through natural infection might not be possible.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

If that’s the case, it makes the search for a vaccine that much more important.

[zk]

This article covers some of the difficulties of producing a vaccine, and also some treatments that are in development. These treatments could be available before a vaccine.

It basically suggests that a vaccine could take a long time, and we might end up using masks, physical distancing, and quarantine until we get a treatment, and then use that treatment until we get a vaccine.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/08/opinions/covid-19-treatment-reason-for-hope-haseltine/index.html

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=zk]
It basically suggests that a vaccine could take a long time, and we might end up using masks, physical distancing, and quarantine until we get a treatment, and then use that treatment until we get a vaccine.
[/quote]

IMO At some point we will reach burnout before any of the above.

We already seem to be lowering the death rate as well.

[zk]

[quote=The-Shoveler]
IMO At some point we will reach burnout before any of the above.

We already seem to be lowering the death rate as well.[/quote]

Burnout. Interesting concept.

Places where it’s peaked do seem to have lower rates. But sometimes those rates start to rise again.

Why do those lower rates happen? Is it because the peak scared everybody and they’re being careful with their social distancing and whatnot? Is there some scientific, medical reason? Will those lower rates stay low in most areas? Is strict social distancing required to keep those rates low? Is there some sort of minimal herd immunity involved? If there is, will it last?

I don’t know the answers to any of the above, despite a bit of searching. Any (credible, scientific) information anyone has would be helpful.

[The-Shoveler]

Virus Just seems to run out fuel at around 20% infected.

Cruise ships, really really hard hit areas etc…

[Author]

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