- This topic has 77 replies, 15 voices, and was last updated 3 years, 9 months ago by
ltsddd.
-
AuthorPosts
-
June 30, 2020 at 11:55 AM #818563June 30, 2020 at 11:58 AM #818564
The-Shoveler
Participant[quote=spdrun]Meanwhile, we’re down to 0.7 hospital admissions per day per 100k people in NYC – about 50-60 per day, with ICU cases being only about 10% of that. Despite protests, people “hanging out” outdoors, businesses reopening (legally and otherwise).
Actual scientists have been saying that the risk of outdoor transmission is next to zero for months now … beaches should remain open so people have a safe(r) place to do fun stuff and socialize.[/quote]
IMO NY probably reaching the burn out phase same for southern Europe and Sweden.
June 30, 2020 at 12:00 PM #818565zk
Participant[quote=barnaby33]We’re all going to get this, full stop. Herd immunity is the only known cure. I hate to sound like a dick as I have no wish for anyone to be ill. However with no cure and no real treatment on the horizon the absolute best we can hope for is to keep our hospital system and most vulnerable protected while the rest of us get it.
Think I’m wrong, great! Show me the path to a cure, please!
That being said, any region with 98.7% of it’s ICU full should be locked back down and hard.
Josh[/quote]What makes you so convinced that a vaccine won’t happen?
June 30, 2020 at 12:42 PM #818566outtamojo
Participant[quote=Coronita]The environment we are in is almost a perfect storm for getting taken out. Social unrest, economic unrest, chaotic government.
I don’t see us finding a vaccine. I think this is probably a Darwin selection process in the making….
I keep saying, take care of yourself and your loved ones. Nothing is really that serious and no amount of money will help if you’re dead.
We just got to survive the rest of 2020… that’s it.[/quote]
We have just shown hostile actors how to take down America. Wont work with the E.U, Asian nations and others but will work perfectly here.
The N. Koreas, Irans, Russians most likely bumping up their bio weapon budgets.
June 30, 2020 at 12:53 PM #818567carlsbadworker
ParticipantJust want to point out that from the bright side, the group of people who don’t wear the mask today are going to be the same group of people who will refuse to get vaccinated when the COVID vaccine comes out. So if you want to pick up a time for them to get immunity, now is most likely the best time.
June 30, 2020 at 1:29 PM #818568
barnaby33ParticipantWhat makes you so convinced that a vaccine won’t happen?
Good question! I have two points to make as an answer. First how many viruses have we cured? The answer is very few, almost zero. A good writeup is from here:
The reasons involve biology and, to a lesser extent, money. Drug companies have developed treatments for a handful of viruses in the last few decades, such as HIV and the flu, but the arsenal is minimal when compared with all the antibiotics we have for treating bacteria. Remember that viruses are not bacteria, so antibiotics are no help.
The main difficulty is that viruses are technically not alive, instead depending on the “machinery” inside human cells to reproduce, said Zachary A. Klase, associate professor of biology at the University of the Sciences. So a drug that targets any part of that parasitic cycle could harm the patient in the process.
“You want something that targets the sickness and not you,” he said. “You need to look for the special things that only the virus is doing.”
Second is that even if a researcher today identified exactly how to block transmission or reproduction of the virus it takes a long time to weaponize it. Only in movies and even then needing a montage, is a cure or a weapon developed in short order. It takes a long time, measured in years to produce, distribute and administer a treatment or cure. Given those two data points alone it would be nothing short of the second coming of Jeebus if a cure arrived before herd immunity. It’s not impossible it’s just not probable.
Given that all the fractured news we have focusing on infection rates and with the none-too-subtle subtext of how awful this is are way off the mark. The messaging needs to be, heard immunity is the goal, here are the effective strategies to preserve as much life as we can while developing it and infections especially asymptomatic ones are a good thing for the population as a whole.
JoshJune 30, 2020 at 1:51 PM #818569spdrun
Participant^^^
you don’t need a perfect cure like in the movies. Even a combination of existing treatments that reduces death rate by 90% and reduces hospitalization time by 50-75% would be a wonderful thing.
Even a vaccine that’s 50% effective would put a big dent in COVID transmission and allow fairly mild measures (basic hygiene, masks) to do the rest. The herd immunity threshold isn’t fixed — it’s dependent on culture and behaviour.
Herd immunity is the unspoken goal (Newsom has discussed it), but the interim goal is not to have a high death rate or to overwhelm hospitals. If hospitals are at risk of overload like in Riverside and Imperial Counties, then temporary measures need to be taken to reduce transmission.
Oh, and wear your damn masks, people. If we can reduce transmission via fairly non-intrusive technology like masks, it reduces the need for other, more unpleasant, social distancing measures.
June 30, 2020 at 2:16 PM #818570barnaby33ParticipantHerd immunity isn’t fixed, you’re right. We don’t even know for certain if it exists with Covid-19. Lard help us all if there isn’t any such thing.
JoshJune 30, 2020 at 2:23 PM #818571sdrealtor
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]IMO Family gatherings are highest risk.
Studies say you’re more likely to get coronavirus from family than strangers
Studies say you’re more likely to get coronavirus from family than strangers
Walking on beach probably fairly low risk.[/quote]
Only because thats who you spend most of your time close to. Spend time near strangers and I doubt the risk is lower
June 30, 2020 at 2:47 PM #818572Participant[quote=barnaby33]
What makes you so convinced that a vaccine won’t happen?
Good question! I have two points to make as an answer. First how many viruses have we cured? The answer is very few, almost zero.
[/quote]
I asked about a vaccine and you answered about a cure. Not the same thing.The reasons involve biology and, to a lesser extent, money. Drug companies have developed treatments for a handful of viruses in the last few decades, such as HIV and the flu, but the arsenal is minimal when compared with all the antibiotics we have for treating bacteria. Remember that viruses are not bacteria, so antibiotics are no help.
The main difficulty is that viruses are technically not alive, instead depending on the “machinery” inside human cells to reproduce, said Zachary A. Klase, associate professor of biology at the University of the Sciences. So a drug that targets any part of that parasitic cycle could harm the patient in the process.
“You want something that targets the sickness and not you,” he said. “You need to look for the special things that only the virus is doing.”
More talk about treatments and cures. Not the same thing.
[quote=barnaby33]Second is that even if a researcher today identified exactly how to block transmission or reproduction of the virus it takes a long time to weaponize it. Only in movies and even then needing a montage, is a cure or a weapon developed in short order. It takes a long time, measured in years to produce, distribute and administer a treatment or cure. Given those two data points alone it would be nothing short of the second coming of Jeebus if a cure arrived before herd immunity. It’s not impossible it’s just not probable.
[/quote]It does generally take years. But the process can be expedited to some degree, and it will be if the situation is urgent enough. Which this situation is. Also, new technologies are showing promise for faster vaccine development, although clinical trials will require time regardless of technology. Running clinical trials in parallel is expensive, but saves time. In this case there are quite a few being run at the same time.
Some of the more important viruses for which we have developed a vaccine:
Polio
Smallpox
Rubella
Measles
Rotavirus
ChickenpoxJune 30, 2020 at 3:01 PM #818573Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Only because thats who you spend most of your time close to. Spend time near strangers and I doubt the risk is lower[/quote]
I think that is the whole point (we don’t spend much time with strangers).
But I do understand your point as well in the case of your sister.Just wear a mask when close proximity (indoors especially), wash your hands, self isolate if you feel vulnerable.
Tell your extended family to stay away for now.
BTW China is now using/distributing a vaccine (mostly for its own military, but there are some civilian as well).
I guess they think it works.June 30, 2020 at 6:01 PM #818574
svelteParticipant[quote=sdrealtor][quote=The-Shoveler]IMO Family gatherings are highest risk.
Studies say you’re more likely to get coronavirus from family than strangers
Studies say you’re more likely to get coronavirus from family than strangers
Walking on beach probably fairly low risk.[/quote]
Only because thats who you spend most of your time close to. Spend time near strangers and I doubt the risk is lower[/quote]
yeah its like that old statistic that most car accidents happen within (x) miles of your house…that’s because thats where people do most of their driving!
My son was telling me it’s not only who you come in contact with, but for how long…risk goes up with length of time. Sounds true to me. Which may also explain why getting it from family members is becoming common.
June 30, 2020 at 6:43 PM #818575TeCKis300
ParticipantNot disagreeing.
But there is a big difference between moderating and controlling the rate at which this takes place
versus
let’s all throw caution to the wind because we’re all going to get it and party up.
Difference is time. Time provides humanity opportunity to better understand the virus and mitigate its impacts. Time will show us more effective strategies for prophylactics, treatments, and potentially cures.
I would rather my vulnerable family members or myself get sick, when there are more options.
Unfortunately, its a community decision with the lowest common denominator dictating the primary trajectory.
June 30, 2020 at 7:13 PM #818576scaredyclassic
ParticipantRiverside bars just closed down.
June 30, 2020 at 11:41 PM #818580ParticipantAZ just activated its crisis standard of care plan aka healthcare rationing.
Arizona activates hospital plan with guidance for rationing health care
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.