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sdrealtor
1 year ago

Hate to create work for you but would be great to see 2019 added to inventory graph(s) to show where we were prepandemic

sdrealtor
1 year ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

Even better and shows how much things have changed. 6K is pretty much the long term average. We are at 1/3rd of that

sdrealtor
1 year ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

Looking at the above I’d put long term pending average around 2500. We are only about 20-30ish% below that so demand is holding up much better than supply. I think its a case of the data showing SD as a market has fundamentally changed. It’s just not the same place it was 10-20 years ago in terms of desirability

Jmw2
1 year ago

Interest rates need to be elevated for a long time for inventory to “recover”

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sdrealtor
1 year ago

Glen Kelman was on CNBC today and was asked what was happening in the market. He must have said 3 times that demand is way down but inventory is down even more. Ive been saying that exact thing here for at least 6 months:)

Escoguy
1 year ago

Was out Ubering the other day. Had a discussion with a passenger works for Swinerton, which is a large commercial developer. Most of our conversation was about lab space/biotech and if too much has been built or is in the pipeline, hard to call but fair chance of too much lab space in near term.
Conversation turned to Apple and their complex in RB, this will take a few years to build out and the plan is for 5-6K employees as HP vacates.

Final note was most surprising, Meta asked for 5K employees to consider relocation to San Diego (don’t know where campus might be), assume UTC/Sorrento Valley area.

Apparently, 31,000 Meta employees asked to be considered for the move from their current location (Bay Area) etc to San Diego. Don’t know timing or if this will actually happen but more tech companies are coming in. Factor discussed was the “friend effect”, as more have friends here, more friends are incentivized to follow.

Expect 4S to benefit from Apple but it will be a step by step incremental process.

At the very least, if these kind of relocations occur, it may well place a floor under prices even at current rates. Also not expecting any softening of rents for near term (1-5 years).

biggoldbear
11 months ago

I’m curious what the valuation index graphs would look like now, and where the threshold would be for a “bubble” (2 standard deviation).
Is this the latest version? https://pcasd.com/san-diego-housing-measuring-valuations-the-role-of-rates-and-whether-to-buy-now/

biggoldbear
11 months ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

Thanks! I just saw the quick link at the top: Articles>Valuation Updates. Can you include the “bubble” threshold line in the next update? Also, any thoughts about how to define a bubble threshold in the high volatility of the last 20y?

biggoldbear
11 months ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

Understood. I also found some of your previous replies where you pulled out the ’05 bubble, which is essentially what I was interested in. A lot of the discussion on this site revolves around assets trending to historical norms in the long term and rejecting the “this time is different” mentality. While it is quite possible that this time is actually different, I’m struggling to find the data to confidently back that up.
I’m not even in the market anymore, but I credit this site and the data for helping us buy our first house at the end of ’08 (when it was suggested I change my name to PowayKnifeCatcher). My friends will often come to me for advice on the market. At this point all I can say is that prices are historically high, but short term supply/demand will likely keep it that way, long-term is hard to predict.

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