[temeculaguy]

5yes, do you work in San Diego? If you do it can be a very trying commute, if you work in North County S.D. (San Marcos, Vista and Esco, it’s actually pretty traffic free and about 30 minutes if you go with South Temecula. I think vc23109 got a lot of crap because he asked the same question about five times and kept starting threads trying to get some affirmation. He also jumped in right before the repos started to hit.

Speaking specifically about 92592, don’t buy now but you won’t have to wait years, in the next ninety days the landscape is going to change thanks to D.R. horton and their Temecula lane development. South of the 79 they are out of dirt in city limits, every piece of dirt left is under development and there are about ten to 15 tracts being built in Wolf Creek, Redhawk, Temecula Lane and Morgan Hill. Most of the repos are priced over the builders and the builders have been slowing things down to avoid standing inventory and drastic reductions. D.R. horton is building about two or three hundred townhouses and a 100 sfr’s in a new gated community adjacent to Wolf and Redhawk. They have totally gone nuts with building and have 26 sfr’s ready in about two or three weeks and are starting to stucco another 20 or so that will be ready a few weeks later that they haven’t even released. Add in the townhouses and they will dump about two hundred units on the market in the next 45 days, maybe 400 units by years end. They aren’t selling. Last week they fired the entire sales staff and cut prices 50k with 20 more in incentives. Brand new 1800 sq ft, granite, s/s, cherry cabinets and 10-20 in flooring is 350k minus 20 in incentives beyong that, the largest is 2400 sq ft and about 390-400k minus the 20k. The taxes are low for Temecula standards at 1.5 and $95 a month Hoa gets you a gated community with pools. The models have only been open a couple of weeks so they obviously planned this slash and burn. We will see how the other builders react but D.R. is going to put a years worth of inventory for the whole zip code on the market in the next ninety days. The townhomes are 1000 to 1500 sg ft, tri plexes with attached garages, the advertised price was high 200’s, that will fall to low 200’s or lower, killing the banks ability to sell that 1500 sq ft repo for 300k.30k more and you have a bigger, new, dialed in place and even that will fall further. The condos that resemble apartments on 79 itself just reverted to rentals, over a hundred units, maybe 200 units all ready for move in a few weeks from now. After months of trying to sell them they didn’t sell one, leasing agent said they sold fourteen but most of them lost their qual in the credit crunch and subprime fallout a few weeks ago so they gave back the few deposits they had left and went rental.

In summary, the market for what and where you are looking is set to fall before Christmas, it is chronologically way ahead of San Diego, the whites of their eyes are almost visible so just hold off a little longer. South Tem has had the stickiest prices of this valley and that is going to change real soon with all this inventory and no new people.

[temeculaguy]

5yes, do you work in San Diego? If you do it can be a very trying commute, if you work in North County S.D. (San Marcos, Vista and Esco, it’s actually pretty traffic free and about 30 minutes if you go with South Temecula. I think vc23109 got a lot of crap because he asked the same question about five times and kept starting threads trying to get some affirmation. He also jumped in right before the repos started to hit.

Speaking specifically about 92592, don’t buy now but you won’t have to wait years, in the next ninety days the landscape is going to change thanks to D.R. horton and their Temecula lane development. South of the 79 they are out of dirt in city limits, every piece of dirt left is under development and there are about ten to 15 tracts being built in Wolf Creek, Redhawk, Temecula Lane and Morgan Hill. Most of the repos are priced over the builders and the builders have been slowing things down to avoid standing inventory and drastic reductions. D.R. horton is building about two or three hundred townhouses and a 100 sfr’s in a new gated community adjacent to Wolf and Redhawk. They have totally gone nuts with building and have 26 sfr’s ready in about two or three weeks and are starting to stucco another 20 or so that will be ready a few weeks later that they haven’t even released. Add in the townhouses and they will dump about two hundred units on the market in the next 45 days, maybe 400 units by years end. They aren’t selling. Last week they fired the entire sales staff and cut prices 50k with 20 more in incentives. Brand new 1800 sq ft, granite, s/s, cherry cabinets and 10-20 in flooring is 350k minus 20 in incentives beyong that, the largest is 2400 sq ft and about 390-400k minus the 20k. The taxes are low for Temecula standards at 1.5 and $95 a month Hoa gets you a gated community with pools. The models have only been open a couple of weeks so they obviously planned this slash and burn. We will see how the other builders react but D.R. is going to put a years worth of inventory for the whole zip code on the market in the next ninety days. The townhomes are 1000 to 1500 sg ft, tri plexes with attached garages, the advertised price was high 200’s, that will fall to low 200’s or lower, killing the banks ability to sell that 1500 sq ft repo for 300k.30k more and you have a bigger, new, dialed in place and even that will fall further. The condos that resemble apartments on 79 itself just reverted to rentals, over a hundred units, maybe 200 units all ready for move in a few weeks from now. After months of trying to sell them they didn’t sell one, leasing agent said they sold fourteen but most of them lost their qual in the credit crunch and subprime fallout a few weeks ago so they gave back the few deposits they had left and went rental.

In summary, the market for what and where you are looking is set to fall before Christmas, it is chronologically way ahead of San Diego, the whites of their eyes are almost visible so just hold off a little longer. South Tem has had the stickiest prices of this valley and that is going to change real soon with all this inventory and no new people.

[temeculaguy]

5yes, do you work in San Diego? If you do it can be a very trying commute, if you work in North County S.D. (San Marcos, Vista and Esco, it’s actually pretty traffic free and about 30 minutes if you go with South Temecula. I think vc23109 got a lot of crap because he asked the same question about five times and kept starting threads trying to get some affirmation. He also jumped in right before the repos started to hit.

Speaking specifically about 92592, don’t buy now but you won’t have to wait years, in the next ninety days the landscape is going to change thanks to D.R. horton and their Temecula lane development. South of the 79 they are out of dirt in city limits, every piece of dirt left is under development and there are about ten to 15 tracts being built in Wolf Creek, Redhawk, Temecula Lane and Morgan Hill. Most of the repos are priced over the builders and the builders have been slowing things down to avoid standing inventory and drastic reductions. D.R. horton is building about two or three hundred townhouses and a 100 sfr’s in a new gated community adjacent to Wolf and Redhawk. They have totally gone nuts with building and have 26 sfr’s ready in about two or three weeks and are starting to stucco another 20 or so that will be ready a few weeks later that they haven’t even released. Add in the townhouses and they will dump about two hundred units on the market in the next 45 days, maybe 400 units by years end. They aren’t selling. Last week they fired the entire sales staff and cut prices 50k with 20 more in incentives. Brand new 1800 sq ft, granite, s/s, cherry cabinets and 10-20 in flooring is 350k minus 20 in incentives beyong that, the largest is 2400 sq ft and about 390-400k minus the 20k. The taxes are low for Temecula standards at 1.5 and $95 a month Hoa gets you a gated community with pools. The models have only been open a couple of weeks so they obviously planned this slash and burn. We will see how the other builders react but D.R. is going to put a years worth of inventory for the whole zip code on the market in the next ninety days. The townhomes are 1000 to 1500 sg ft, tri plexes with attached garages, the advertised price was high 200’s, that will fall to low 200’s or lower, killing the banks ability to sell that 1500 sq ft repo for 300k.30k more and you have a bigger, new, dialed in place and even that will fall further. The condos that resemble apartments on 79 itself just reverted to rentals, over a hundred units, maybe 200 units all ready for move in a few weeks from now. After months of trying to sell them they didn’t sell one, leasing agent said they sold fourteen but most of them lost their qual in the credit crunch and subprime fallout a few weeks ago so they gave back the few deposits they had left and went rental.

In summary, the market for what and where you are looking is set to fall before Christmas, it is chronologically way ahead of San Diego, the whites of their eyes are almost visible so just hold off a little longer. South Tem has had the stickiest prices of this valley and that is going to change real soon with all this inventory and no new people.

[temeculaguy]

bazman, welcome aboard! To answer your tax question, at 50k the tax bene’s are not that great, as your income rises it has greater benefit. The first 50k isn’t taxed too heavily, if your income is likely to rise higher in the near term it starts becoming beneficial, over 77k for singles is it 28% but the first 8k is 10% and from 8-32k is 15%, 32k to 77 is 25%. If your income were to go up 12k but you bought a house and shielded 12k, you would avoid $3k in taxes a year or $250 a month. 100k earners are shielding their 28% taxes and a 2k mortgage shields 28% of 24k, somewhere near $700 a month, so by doubling the income and the house payment you almost triple the tax benefit. You are wise to realize that on 50k a 150k pruchase is plausable, 3x income and you will be fine. It is likely your income and savings will rise and the prices will come down so you can meet somewhere in the middle.

[temeculaguy]

bazman, welcome aboard! To answer your tax question, at 50k the tax bene’s are not that great, as your income rises it has greater benefit. The first 50k isn’t taxed too heavily, if your income is likely to rise higher in the near term it starts becoming beneficial, over 77k for singles is it 28% but the first 8k is 10% and from 8-32k is 15%, 32k to 77 is 25%. If your income were to go up 12k but you bought a house and shielded 12k, you would avoid $3k in taxes a year or $250 a month. 100k earners are shielding their 28% taxes and a 2k mortgage shields 28% of 24k, somewhere near $700 a month, so by doubling the income and the house payment you almost triple the tax benefit. You are wise to realize that on 50k a 150k pruchase is plausable, 3x income and you will be fine. It is likely your income and savings will rise and the prices will come down so you can meet somewhere in the middle.

[temeculaguy]

bazman, welcome aboard! To answer your tax question, at 50k the tax bene’s are not that great, as your income rises it has greater benefit. The first 50k isn’t taxed too heavily, if your income is likely to rise higher in the near term it starts becoming beneficial, over 77k for singles is it 28% but the first 8k is 10% and from 8-32k is 15%, 32k to 77 is 25%. If your income were to go up 12k but you bought a house and shielded 12k, you would avoid $3k in taxes a year or $250 a month. 100k earners are shielding their 28% taxes and a 2k mortgage shields 28% of 24k, somewhere near $700 a month, so by doubling the income and the house payment you almost triple the tax benefit. You are wise to realize that on 50k a 150k pruchase is plausable, 3x income and you will be fine. It is likely your income and savings will rise and the prices will come down so you can meet somewhere in the middle.

[temeculaguy]

Your calculations are correct but was the 180k the recorded sale back to the bank or the price to a new buyer? Many times the recent low sale is the repo of the 1st mortgage and in reality many are leveraged with seconds and helocs. If you could actually get it for 180k then it makes sense but that is 35-40% less than what it was when it didn’t make sense. The regular posters don’t believe that R/E needs to cost the same as a nice dinner for it become fundamentally sound, just back to the numbers you quoted. Now if that young couple makes 30k a year and finances it with a loan that will blow up in a few years it doesn’t make sense for them but it will make sense for someone who can and is easily paying for and is happy with their current 1 br at $1050. It is at a 170x rent multiplier, still too high for a prudent investor as a rental but it’s not too bad.

[temeculaguy]

Your calculations are correct but was the 180k the recorded sale back to the bank or the price to a new buyer? Many times the recent low sale is the repo of the 1st mortgage and in reality many are leveraged with seconds and helocs. If you could actually get it for 180k then it makes sense but that is 35-40% less than what it was when it didn’t make sense. The regular posters don’t believe that R/E needs to cost the same as a nice dinner for it become fundamentally sound, just back to the numbers you quoted. Now if that young couple makes 30k a year and finances it with a loan that will blow up in a few years it doesn’t make sense for them but it will make sense for someone who can and is easily paying for and is happy with their current 1 br at $1050. It is at a 170x rent multiplier, still too high for a prudent investor as a rental but it’s not too bad.

[temeculaguy]

Your calculations are correct but was the 180k the recorded sale back to the bank or the price to a new buyer? Many times the recent low sale is the repo of the 1st mortgage and in reality many are leveraged with seconds and helocs. If you could actually get it for 180k then it makes sense but that is 35-40% less than what it was when it didn’t make sense. The regular posters don’t believe that R/E needs to cost the same as a nice dinner for it become fundamentally sound, just back to the numbers you quoted. Now if that young couple makes 30k a year and finances it with a loan that will blow up in a few years it doesn’t make sense for them but it will make sense for someone who can and is easily paying for and is happy with their current 1 br at $1050. It is at a 170x rent multiplier, still too high for a prudent investor as a rental but it’s not too bad.

[temeculaguy]

Solar is about to blow up and not to save the world but because the world’s energy market is double what the world’s agricultural market is, follow the money baby. I won’t bore you with the details but there are companies in various countries making advancements so that panels can be cheap, many times more efficient, last longer and need very little sunlight. Some of the technology doesn’t require traditional panels, is clear and can be sprayed onto anything or integrated into things like windows. Once it gets past the cost/benefit threshold it will become mainstream rather than a novelty. What you read was likely about the thin film (like window tint film) which is pretty promising and dirt cheap to produce or the MEG (multiple exiticon generation), simply put, more energy from less sun, you don’t even need sun, just UV. I think the next genration of solar due out in a few years will be cheap enough that rebates won’t be needed for it to make fiscal sense to people. The rough estimates for residential of the new tech is just a few thousand dollars and a 50 year lifespan, with a break even point of a year or two, if that does come to market it will be immensly popular.

[temeculaguy]

Solar is about to blow up and not to save the world but because the world’s energy market is double what the world’s agricultural market is, follow the money baby. I won’t bore you with the details but there are companies in various countries making advancements so that panels can be cheap, many times more efficient, last longer and need very little sunlight. Some of the technology doesn’t require traditional panels, is clear and can be sprayed onto anything or integrated into things like windows. Once it gets past the cost/benefit threshold it will become mainstream rather than a novelty. What you read was likely about the thin film (like window tint film) which is pretty promising and dirt cheap to produce or the MEG (multiple exiticon generation), simply put, more energy from less sun, you don’t even need sun, just UV. I think the next genration of solar due out in a few years will be cheap enough that rebates won’t be needed for it to make fiscal sense to people. The rough estimates for residential of the new tech is just a few thousand dollars and a 50 year lifespan, with a break even point of a year or two, if that does come to market it will be immensly popular.

[temeculaguy]

Solar is about to blow up and not to save the world but because the world’s energy market is double what the world’s agricultural market is, follow the money baby. I won’t bore you with the details but there are companies in various countries making advancements so that panels can be cheap, many times more efficient, last longer and need very little sunlight. Some of the technology doesn’t require traditional panels, is clear and can be sprayed onto anything or integrated into things like windows. Once it gets past the cost/benefit threshold it will become mainstream rather than a novelty. What you read was likely about the thin film (like window tint film) which is pretty promising and dirt cheap to produce or the MEG (multiple exiticon generation), simply put, more energy from less sun, you don’t even need sun, just UV. I think the next genration of solar due out in a few years will be cheap enough that rebates won’t be needed for it to make fiscal sense to people. The rough estimates for residential of the new tech is just a few thousand dollars and a 50 year lifespan, with a break even point of a year or two, if that does come to market it will be immensly popular.

[temeculaguy]

Neeta has a point but here are a few basics about civics and taxes. Property taxes fund primarily the things you see locally, police, fire, schools, streets (non freeway), jails, and some forms of welfare. If the rate is over 1% for things like mello roos or bonds, the money is for something specific that was likely voter approved or only for that neighborhood that the developer didn’t pay for. The state takes a chunk and funds the schools and courts, county takes a chunk for jails, D.A. whether the house is in a city or in an unincorporated area a chunk goes to pay for police, fire, paramedics and streets for that area. All of those entities get a raise when the house changes hands and they all hate the guy who lives in his house for thirty years and pays very little in taxes. If someone bought a house in La Jolla during the 1980’s they may have paid 100k, their tax bill is incredibly low. If they refi, the taxes don’t go up. Lets say it’s worth a mil and was heloc’d to a mil, today the taxes are about 2k a year, if it forecloses and sells at auction for 750k, now the taxes are 7.5k a year. For every house purchased for 800k that is upside down and sells distressed at 600k there will be an older house that sells at a higher price so the tax collector likes transaction more than values. Even the devlopers that have been sandbagging land and dump it cause the taxes to increase because it sells for more than what they paid but less than what it was worth last year. It is against local government interest to bail out a person who paid 400k and saw their value rise to 600k, refi’d to 600k and loses their house which will be sold by the bank for 500k, the 500k would still cause an increase in taxes because the taxes were based on 400k. Every square inch of dirt is taxed and if you looked at it all, only a small amount changed hands between 2003 and today so it doesn’t make sense to spend tons of money to collect the extra 2k on the house that goes from 800k to 600k.

What you hear from politicians about a bail out isn’t about them protecting their income stream, it’s about propaganda to get votes.

[temeculaguy]

Neeta has a point but here are a few basics about civics and taxes. Property taxes fund primarily the things you see locally, police, fire, schools, streets (non freeway), jails, and some forms of welfare. If the rate is over 1% for things like mello roos or bonds, the money is for something specific that was likely voter approved or only for that neighborhood that the developer didn’t pay for. The state takes a chunk and funds the schools and courts, county takes a chunk for jails, D.A. whether the house is in a city or in an unincorporated area a chunk goes to pay for police, fire, paramedics and streets for that area. All of those entities get a raise when the house changes hands and they all hate the guy who lives in his house for thirty years and pays very little in taxes. If someone bought a house in La Jolla during the 1980’s they may have paid 100k, their tax bill is incredibly low. If they refi, the taxes don’t go up. Lets say it’s worth a mil and was heloc’d to a mil, today the taxes are about 2k a year, if it forecloses and sells at auction for 750k, now the taxes are 7.5k a year. For every house purchased for 800k that is upside down and sells distressed at 600k there will be an older house that sells at a higher price so the tax collector likes transaction more than values. Even the devlopers that have been sandbagging land and dump it cause the taxes to increase because it sells for more than what they paid but less than what it was worth last year. It is against local government interest to bail out a person who paid 400k and saw their value rise to 600k, refi’d to 600k and loses their house which will be sold by the bank for 500k, the 500k would still cause an increase in taxes because the taxes were based on 400k. Every square inch of dirt is taxed and if you looked at it all, only a small amount changed hands between 2003 and today so it doesn’t make sense to spend tons of money to collect the extra 2k on the house that goes from 800k to 600k.

What you hear from politicians about a bail out isn’t about them protecting their income stream, it’s about propaganda to get votes.

[temeculaguy]

Neeta has a point but here are a few basics about civics and taxes. Property taxes fund primarily the things you see locally, police, fire, schools, streets (non freeway), jails, and some forms of welfare. If the rate is over 1% for things like mello roos or bonds, the money is for something specific that was likely voter approved or only for that neighborhood that the developer didn’t pay for. The state takes a chunk and funds the schools and courts, county takes a chunk for jails, D.A. whether the house is in a city or in an unincorporated area a chunk goes to pay for police, fire, paramedics and streets for that area. All of those entities get a raise when the house changes hands and they all hate the guy who lives in his house for thirty years and pays very little in taxes. If someone bought a house in La Jolla during the 1980’s they may have paid 100k, their tax bill is incredibly low. If they refi, the taxes don’t go up. Lets say it’s worth a mil and was heloc’d to a mil, today the taxes are about 2k a year, if it forecloses and sells at auction for 750k, now the taxes are 7.5k a year. For every house purchased for 800k that is upside down and sells distressed at 600k there will be an older house that sells at a higher price so the tax collector likes transaction more than values. Even the devlopers that have been sandbagging land and dump it cause the taxes to increase because it sells for more than what they paid but less than what it was worth last year. It is against local government interest to bail out a person who paid 400k and saw their value rise to 600k, refi’d to 600k and loses their house which will be sold by the bank for 500k, the 500k would still cause an increase in taxes because the taxes were based on 400k. Every square inch of dirt is taxed and if you looked at it all, only a small amount changed hands between 2003 and today so it doesn’t make sense to spend tons of money to collect the extra 2k on the house that goes from 800k to 600k.

What you hear from politicians about a bail out isn’t about them protecting their income stream, it’s about propaganda to get votes.

[Author]

Posts