What to do in Temecula?

[temeculaguy]

5yes, do you work in San Diego? If you do it can be a very trying commute, if you work in North County S.D. (San Marcos, Vista and Esco, it’s actually pretty traffic free and about 30 minutes if you go with South Temecula. I think vc23109 got a lot of crap because he asked the same question about five times and kept starting threads trying to get some affirmation. He also jumped in right before the repos started to hit.

Speaking specifically about 92592, don’t buy now but you won’t have to wait years, in the next ninety days the landscape is going to change thanks to D.R. horton and their Temecula lane development. South of the 79 they are out of dirt in city limits, every piece of dirt left is under development and there are about ten to 15 tracts being built in Wolf Creek, Redhawk, Temecula Lane and Morgan Hill. Most of the repos are priced over the builders and the builders have been slowing things down to avoid standing inventory and drastic reductions. D.R. horton is building about two or three hundred townhouses and a 100 sfr’s in a new gated community adjacent to Wolf and Redhawk. They have totally gone nuts with building and have 26 sfr’s ready in about two or three weeks and are starting to stucco another 20 or so that will be ready a few weeks later that they haven’t even released. Add in the townhouses and they will dump about two hundred units on the market in the next 45 days, maybe 400 units by years end. They aren’t selling. Last week they fired the entire sales staff and cut prices 50k with 20 more in incentives. Brand new 1800 sq ft, granite, s/s, cherry cabinets and 10-20 in flooring is 350k minus 20 in incentives beyong that, the largest is 2400 sq ft and about 390-400k minus the 20k. The taxes are low for Temecula standards at 1.5 and $95 a month Hoa gets you a gated community with pools. The models have only been open a couple of weeks so they obviously planned this slash and burn. We will see how the other builders react but D.R. is going to put a years worth of inventory for the whole zip code on the market in the next ninety days. The townhomes are 1000 to 1500 sg ft, tri plexes with attached garages, the advertised price was high 200’s, that will fall to low 200’s or lower, killing the banks ability to sell that 1500 sq ft repo for 300k.30k more and you have a bigger, new, dialed in place and even that will fall further. The condos that resemble apartments on 79 itself just reverted to rentals, over a hundred units, maybe 200 units all ready for move in a few weeks from now. After months of trying to sell them they didn’t sell one, leasing agent said they sold fourteen but most of them lost their qual in the credit crunch and subprime fallout a few weeks ago so they gave back the few deposits they had left and went rental.

In summary, the market for what and where you are looking is set to fall before Christmas, it is chronologically way ahead of San Diego, the whites of their eyes are almost visible so just hold off a little longer. South Tem has had the stickiest prices of this valley and that is going to change real soon with all this inventory and no new people.

[mydogsarelazy]

Hi 5yes,

I live in Murrieta and although a Piggintonian, I am not as extreme as some folks on this board. Is that denial? Only my shrink knows for sure.

That said, here is what I think you should do. Ask yourself the following three questions:

1) Is this a home you really want? Does it really suit your needs?

2) Can you comfortably afford the payments? The repairs won’t take too much cash right?

3) Do you plan to stay at least ten years?

If you got three yes answers to the above, I would say go ahead and make an offer.

Here is what I am seeing in my neighborhood. For almost a year the market has been just stagnant, almost nothing selling, repos and brown lawns have been appearing. Then, last week a house near me went for sale at $399k. All the other local houses for sale are in the $400-500k range. Suddenly lots of shows and lots of realtors taking people through the house.

In other words, yes the market is taking a dive, yes it could get worse, yes nobody knows what is next, but there are some potential buyers appearing looking for “bargains” if that word even applies.

Good luck,

JS

[mydogsarelazy]

Hi 5yes,

I live in Murrieta and although a Piggintonian, I am not as extreme as some folks on this board. Is that denial? Only my shrink knows for sure.

That said, here is what I think you should do. Ask yourself the following three questions:

1) Is this a home you really want? Does it really suit your needs?

2) Can you comfortably afford the payments? The repairs won’t take too much cash right?

3) Do you plan to stay at least ten years?

If you got three yes answers to the above, I would say go ahead and make an offer.

Here is what I am seeing in my neighborhood. For almost a year the market has been just stagnant, almost nothing selling, repos and brown lawns have been appearing. Then, last week a house near me went for sale at $399k. All the other local houses for sale are in the $400-500k range. Suddenly lots of shows and lots of realtors taking people through the house.

In other words, yes the market is taking a dive, yes it could get worse, yes nobody knows what is next, but there are some potential buyers appearing looking for “bargains” if that word even applies.

Good luck,

JS

[mydogsarelazy]

Hi 5yes,

I live in Murrieta and although a Piggintonian, I am not as extreme as some folks on this board. Is that denial? Only my shrink knows for sure.

That said, here is what I think you should do. Ask yourself the following three questions:

1) Is this a home you really want? Does it really suit your needs?

2) Can you comfortably afford the payments? The repairs won’t take too much cash right?

3) Do you plan to stay at least ten years?

If you got three yes answers to the above, I would say go ahead and make an offer.

Here is what I am seeing in my neighborhood. For almost a year the market has been just stagnant, almost nothing selling, repos and brown lawns have been appearing. Then, last week a house near me went for sale at $399k. All the other local houses for sale are in the $400-500k range. Suddenly lots of shows and lots of realtors taking people through the house.

In other words, yes the market is taking a dive, yes it could get worse, yes nobody knows what is next, but there are some potential buyers appearing looking for “bargains” if that word even applies.

Good luck,

JS

[Bugs]

“I am just looking for either a “may be a good idea” sentiment or a “keep waiting, stay strong and saving your pennies” sentiment. Thanks.”

You haven’t put out comments about your marriage being in trouble if you don’t buy or you strongly feel that your child’s self-esteem will suffer if they learn that your name isn’t on the title of your home. With that in mind, I’m going to tell you that you most definitely SHOULD NOT buy right now and you’ll most likely regret it if you do.

When people debate whether Carmel Valley or Scripps will correct more than 20% that’s a subject in which reasonable people can disagree at this point. I don’t think most people would disagree that Temeku and its surrounding environs are in for at least another 20% hit and the way things are going right now it could well be double that.

If you can live with a $300k purchase you have nothing to lose by waiting. Who knows? Maybe that $300k will wind up buying you a really nice home within the neighborhood where you work. Or in a really nice neighborhood within a few minutes drive of where you work. It could happen.

If you’re nervous about the market suddenly swinging and jumping 10% overnight thereby cutting you off forever, you can put that fear to rest. The RE markets move at a glacial pace compared to the stock markets. You CANNOT miss you buy-point so long as you are paying attention to what’s going on.

In your place, I’d go to the 30-day plan. Instead of worrying about whether now is the time on a daily basis and having that hang over your head as a daily stressor, make a don’t-buy decision today and then mark your calendar for 30 days from now to revisit that decision. If in that 30 days the market completely reverses (which won’t happen) then you’ll have plenty of time to decide to jump onboard the property ladder expressway. If the market continues to deteriorate you can rest assured that your first decision (today) was a good one, which will reinforce your confidence in making the same decisions going forward.

As long as you’re paying attention to what the market is doing you’ll be able to see your entry point coming from a mile away. You can become your own informed opinion and not have to rely on anyone else’s.

[Bugs]

“I am just looking for either a “may be a good idea” sentiment or a “keep waiting, stay strong and saving your pennies” sentiment. Thanks.”

You haven’t put out comments about your marriage being in trouble if you don’t buy or you strongly feel that your child’s self-esteem will suffer if they learn that your name isn’t on the title of your home. With that in mind, I’m going to tell you that you most definitely SHOULD NOT buy right now and you’ll most likely regret it if you do.

When people debate whether Carmel Valley or Scripps will correct more than 20% that’s a subject in which reasonable people can disagree at this point. I don’t think most people would disagree that Temeku and its surrounding environs are in for at least another 20% hit and the way things are going right now it could well be double that.

If you can live with a $300k purchase you have nothing to lose by waiting. Who knows? Maybe that $300k will wind up buying you a really nice home within the neighborhood where you work. Or in a really nice neighborhood within a few minutes drive of where you work. It could happen.

If you’re nervous about the market suddenly swinging and jumping 10% overnight thereby cutting you off forever, you can put that fear to rest. The RE markets move at a glacial pace compared to the stock markets. You CANNOT miss you buy-point so long as you are paying attention to what’s going on.

In your place, I’d go to the 30-day plan. Instead of worrying about whether now is the time on a daily basis and having that hang over your head as a daily stressor, make a don’t-buy decision today and then mark your calendar for 30 days from now to revisit that decision. If in that 30 days the market completely reverses (which won’t happen) then you’ll have plenty of time to decide to jump onboard the property ladder expressway. If the market continues to deteriorate you can rest assured that your first decision (today) was a good one, which will reinforce your confidence in making the same decisions going forward.

As long as you’re paying attention to what the market is doing you’ll be able to see your entry point coming from a mile away. You can become your own informed opinion and not have to rely on anyone else’s.

[Bugs]

“I am just looking for either a “may be a good idea” sentiment or a “keep waiting, stay strong and saving your pennies” sentiment. Thanks.”

You haven’t put out comments about your marriage being in trouble if you don’t buy or you strongly feel that your child’s self-esteem will suffer if they learn that your name isn’t on the title of your home. With that in mind, I’m going to tell you that you most definitely SHOULD NOT buy right now and you’ll most likely regret it if you do.

When people debate whether Carmel Valley or Scripps will correct more than 20% that’s a subject in which reasonable people can disagree at this point. I don’t think most people would disagree that Temeku and its surrounding environs are in for at least another 20% hit and the way things are going right now it could well be double that.

If you can live with a $300k purchase you have nothing to lose by waiting. Who knows? Maybe that $300k will wind up buying you a really nice home within the neighborhood where you work. Or in a really nice neighborhood within a few minutes drive of where you work. It could happen.

If you’re nervous about the market suddenly swinging and jumping 10% overnight thereby cutting you off forever, you can put that fear to rest. The RE markets move at a glacial pace compared to the stock markets. You CANNOT miss you buy-point so long as you are paying attention to what’s going on.

In your place, I’d go to the 30-day plan. Instead of worrying about whether now is the time on a daily basis and having that hang over your head as a daily stressor, make a don’t-buy decision today and then mark your calendar for 30 days from now to revisit that decision. If in that 30 days the market completely reverses (which won’t happen) then you’ll have plenty of time to decide to jump onboard the property ladder expressway. If the market continues to deteriorate you can rest assured that your first decision (today) was a good one, which will reinforce your confidence in making the same decisions going forward.

As long as you’re paying attention to what the market is doing you’ll be able to see your entry point coming from a mile away. You can become your own informed opinion and not have to rely on anyone else’s.

[Bugs]

BTW, many of the ARMs used to buy a lot of those 2004-2005 homes out there are resetting later this year, which means that even more forced sales are going to be added to the pipeline over the next 12 months. Before this is over you’ll see a lot more foreclosure sales and even more motivation from the banks.

[Bugs]

BTW, many of the ARMs used to buy a lot of those 2004-2005 homes out there are resetting later this year, which means that even more forced sales are going to be added to the pipeline over the next 12 months. Before this is over you’ll see a lot more foreclosure sales and even more motivation from the banks.

[Bugs]

BTW, many of the ARMs used to buy a lot of those 2004-2005 homes out there are resetting later this year, which means that even more forced sales are going to be added to the pipeline over the next 12 months. Before this is over you’ll see a lot more foreclosure sales and even more motivation from the banks.

[Coronita]

When people debate whether Carmel Valley or Scripps will correct more than 20% that's a subject in which reasonable people can disagree at this point. I don't think most people would disagree that Temeku and its surrounding environs are in for at least another 20% hit and the way things are going right now it could well be double that.

 

I would tend to agree with bugs. The issues that I see with places like Temecula, Otay Mesa, and Oceanside, is that I think there were a lot of people who had questionable income versus the price of the homes in these areas. Just looking at the foreclosures stats Temecula and Oceanside are in the top 500 zip codes of foreclosures

http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/19/real_estate/500_top_foreclosure_zip_codes/index.htm

And Otay Mesa isn't doing much better.

I'd be curious to see the relative percentage of income disparity from cost of a home in those areas, versus other areas like CarmelV, Rancho P, Scripps Ranch, etc. I've asked for the stats from anyone, but so far no one has been able to provide them..It's probably too difficult to do this. I myself can't because I don't have access to a lot of this data. If I were to guess, I would say the income disparity is far greater in areas like Temecula/Oceanside/Otay Mesa, than others..If that's the case, I would guess that that foreclosures in that area are going to snowball into more foreclosures as people that were marginally ok are going to be sucked into a trap, as property values further decline and as it's harder to qualify for loans (being double whammied by both property depreciation and questionable income that made it hard for folks to qualify for a conventional 30/15 year fixed loan to begin with)….hence, for those areas I don't think we're even half way there to completing a price correction yet in those areas.

Furthermore, we really haven't even begun to see a meaninful price correction in areas like LJ/CarmelV/Scripps etc. I'm not going to debate how much that will be. However, I think everyone is more or less in agreement that it's going to happen more.

[Coronita]

When people debate whether Carmel Valley or Scripps will correct more than 20% that's a subject in which reasonable people can disagree at this point. I don't think most people would disagree that Temeku and its surrounding environs are in for at least another 20% hit and the way things are going right now it could well be double that.

 

I would tend to agree with bugs. The issues that I see with places like Temecula, Otay Mesa, and Oceanside, is that I think there were a lot of people who had questionable income versus the price of the homes in these areas. Just looking at the foreclosures stats Temecula and Oceanside are in the top 500 zip codes of foreclosures

http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/19/real_estate/500_top_foreclosure_zip_codes/index.htm

And Otay Mesa isn't doing much better.

I'd be curious to see the relative percentage of income disparity from cost of a home in those areas, versus other areas like CarmelV, Rancho P, Scripps Ranch, etc. I've asked for the stats from anyone, but so far no one has been able to provide them..It's probably too difficult to do this. I myself can't because I don't have access to a lot of this data. If I were to guess, I would say the income disparity is far greater in areas like Temecula/Oceanside/Otay Mesa, than others..If that's the case, I would guess that that foreclosures in that area are going to snowball into more foreclosures as people that were marginally ok are going to be sucked into a trap, as property values further decline and as it's harder to qualify for loans (being double whammied by both property depreciation and questionable income that made it hard for folks to qualify for a conventional 30/15 year fixed loan to begin with)….hence, for those areas I don't think we're even half way there to completing a price correction yet in those areas.

Furthermore, we really haven't even begun to see a meaninful price correction in areas like LJ/CarmelV/Scripps etc. I'm not going to debate how much that will be. However, I think everyone is more or less in agreement that it's going to happen more.

[Coronita]

When people debate whether Carmel Valley or Scripps will correct more than 20% that's a subject in which reasonable people can disagree at this point. I don't think most people would disagree that Temeku and its surrounding environs are in for at least another 20% hit and the way things are going right now it could well be double that.

 

I would tend to agree with bugs. The issues that I see with places like Temecula, Otay Mesa, and Oceanside, is that I think there were a lot of people who had questionable income versus the price of the homes in these areas. Just looking at the foreclosures stats Temecula and Oceanside are in the top 500 zip codes of foreclosures

http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/19/real_estate/500_top_foreclosure_zip_codes/index.htm

And Otay Mesa isn't doing much better.

I'd be curious to see the relative percentage of income disparity from cost of a home in those areas, versus other areas like CarmelV, Rancho P, Scripps Ranch, etc. I've asked for the stats from anyone, but so far no one has been able to provide them..It's probably too difficult to do this. I myself can't because I don't have access to a lot of this data. If I were to guess, I would say the income disparity is far greater in areas like Temecula/Oceanside/Otay Mesa, than others..If that's the case, I would guess that that foreclosures in that area are going to snowball into more foreclosures as people that were marginally ok are going to be sucked into a trap, as property values further decline and as it's harder to qualify for loans (being double whammied by both property depreciation and questionable income that made it hard for folks to qualify for a conventional 30/15 year fixed loan to begin with)….hence, for those areas I don't think we're even half way there to completing a price correction yet in those areas.

Furthermore, we really haven't even begun to see a meaninful price correction in areas like LJ/CarmelV/Scripps etc. I'm not going to debate how much that will be. However, I think everyone is more or less in agreement that it's going to happen more.

[Tuba]

Great insight Temeculaguy. I can vouch for that report about DR Horton. I am a sub-contractor for the majority of the new home builders and we do 95% of DR Horton’s work. I didn’t know about them lowering prices again and or firing the sales staff. This is good info for me. DR Horton has been leading the charge in price reductions for Riverside. We have been working like crazy for them in the last 2 months. They have been building as if this were Summer 05-06. I also think that it is a better deal to buy a new home with the upgrade incentives. You also get a 1 year stucco to stucco warranty, and a 10 year major warranty against defects. I will be looking in this area for a rental investment once prices drop to $299 and below.

[Tuba]

Great insight Temeculaguy. I can vouch for that report about DR Horton. I am a sub-contractor for the majority of the new home builders and we do 95% of DR Horton’s work. I didn’t know about them lowering prices again and or firing the sales staff. This is good info for me. DR Horton has been leading the charge in price reductions for Riverside. We have been working like crazy for them in the last 2 months. They have been building as if this were Summer 05-06. I also think that it is a better deal to buy a new home with the upgrade incentives. You also get a 1 year stucco to stucco warranty, and a 10 year major warranty against defects. I will be looking in this area for a rental investment once prices drop to $299 and below.

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