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temeculaguy
ParticipantActually I have some familiarity with these, they will end up being priced around 200k when this shakes out, that was their pre-bubble price when they sold new (160 or 180 to 220, from memory). These are true townhouses, attached 2 car garages and the A and B units share very little wall space, mostly the garage walls. There isn’t much condo stock in the zip code, it’s probably less than 10% so the market shouldn’t beat these any more than the sfr market by %. People that bought resales in the mid to high 300’s are just screwed, but the rent is about 1500, give or take, so the 150x rent is 225k. The zip code contains california’s largest casino which has thousands of “rental demographic” jobs yet there are almost no apartments other than the new ones on 79S where rents are 1400-1800 for a dinky, stair climbing, carport, true apartment complex, so these are a somewhat safe sub 225k investment.
What will drive these down to the the low 200’s is the new D.R. horton condos at temecula lane in the 200’s and the unattached, condoesque, shared driveway or alley homes in Wolf Creek that are approaching the sub 300’s and are much nicer.
I don’t know what the suprise is, most of the market is on it’s way back to 2002 or 2003 prices, representing a 50% decline and fundamentally there is nothing that will stop it. In fact $100 a barrel oil will accelerate it for outlying suburbs or exurbs.
ParticipantActually I have some familiarity with these, they will end up being priced around 200k when this shakes out, that was their pre-bubble price when they sold new (160 or 180 to 220, from memory). These are true townhouses, attached 2 car garages and the A and B units share very little wall space, mostly the garage walls. There isn’t much condo stock in the zip code, it’s probably less than 10% so the market shouldn’t beat these any more than the sfr market by %. People that bought resales in the mid to high 300’s are just screwed, but the rent is about 1500, give or take, so the 150x rent is 225k. The zip code contains california’s largest casino which has thousands of “rental demographic” jobs yet there are almost no apartments other than the new ones on 79S where rents are 1400-1800 for a dinky, stair climbing, carport, true apartment complex, so these are a somewhat safe sub 225k investment.
What will drive these down to the the low 200’s is the new D.R. horton condos at temecula lane in the 200’s and the unattached, condoesque, shared driveway or alley homes in Wolf Creek that are approaching the sub 300’s and are much nicer.
I don’t know what the suprise is, most of the market is on it’s way back to 2002 or 2003 prices, representing a 50% decline and fundamentally there is nothing that will stop it. In fact $100 a barrel oil will accelerate it for outlying suburbs or exurbs.
ParticipantActually I have some familiarity with these, they will end up being priced around 200k when this shakes out, that was their pre-bubble price when they sold new (160 or 180 to 220, from memory). These are true townhouses, attached 2 car garages and the A and B units share very little wall space, mostly the garage walls. There isn’t much condo stock in the zip code, it’s probably less than 10% so the market shouldn’t beat these any more than the sfr market by %. People that bought resales in the mid to high 300’s are just screwed, but the rent is about 1500, give or take, so the 150x rent is 225k. The zip code contains california’s largest casino which has thousands of “rental demographic” jobs yet there are almost no apartments other than the new ones on 79S where rents are 1400-1800 for a dinky, stair climbing, carport, true apartment complex, so these are a somewhat safe sub 225k investment.
What will drive these down to the the low 200’s is the new D.R. horton condos at temecula lane in the 200’s and the unattached, condoesque, shared driveway or alley homes in Wolf Creek that are approaching the sub 300’s and are much nicer.
I don’t know what the suprise is, most of the market is on it’s way back to 2002 or 2003 prices, representing a 50% decline and fundamentally there is nothing that will stop it. In fact $100 a barrel oil will accelerate it for outlying suburbs or exurbs.
ParticipantActually I have some familiarity with these, they will end up being priced around 200k when this shakes out, that was their pre-bubble price when they sold new (160 or 180 to 220, from memory). These are true townhouses, attached 2 car garages and the A and B units share very little wall space, mostly the garage walls. There isn’t much condo stock in the zip code, it’s probably less than 10% so the market shouldn’t beat these any more than the sfr market by %. People that bought resales in the mid to high 300’s are just screwed, but the rent is about 1500, give or take, so the 150x rent is 225k. The zip code contains california’s largest casino which has thousands of “rental demographic” jobs yet there are almost no apartments other than the new ones on 79S where rents are 1400-1800 for a dinky, stair climbing, carport, true apartment complex, so these are a somewhat safe sub 225k investment.
What will drive these down to the the low 200’s is the new D.R. horton condos at temecula lane in the 200’s and the unattached, condoesque, shared driveway or alley homes in Wolf Creek that are approaching the sub 300’s and are much nicer.
I don’t know what the suprise is, most of the market is on it’s way back to 2002 or 2003 prices, representing a 50% decline and fundamentally there is nothing that will stop it. In fact $100 a barrel oil will accelerate it for outlying suburbs or exurbs.
Participantsalo, avoid stratford, that has to be one of the worst locations in the area and they aren’t discounting enough to compensate for the drawbacks, unfortunately someone driving around can’t always see the drawbacks.
1. It is adjacent to the high school and actually the student parking lot access is in front of those homes even though it seems like it is behind the high school the traffic is brutal during ingress/egress. The stadium is nice and new and seems to be always hosting an event, you will be a hundred feet away and hearing every play.
2. On the other side is the indian reservation. While the majority of the indians have moved off the reservation with their newfound wealth, those that remain in the backyard of stratford spend their free time firing weapons in the air and riding off road vehicle/dirtbikes about fifty feet from those homes. I jog that area and before the houses started construction, there was more than one occasion that I ducked when hearing gunshots. You can’t complain about the off road vehicles or noise because to the police because they don’t have infraction authority on the reservation, temecula codes don’t apply and junk cars, yard appliances, graffiti (while not at every house, it is at some) cannot be addressed by the city.
3. While it is technically in redhawk, it really isn’t as far as access. Access is off Pechanga parkway and the beautiful landscaping and waterfalls that everyone else and their guests drive through aren’t visible driving to stratford, they enter by driving past the casino.
4. In my opinion this will be the first tract to go under mid development and the next few years the neighbors will be empty lots. The built the first street and didn’t sell anything. They redesigned the models and started again. Their cancellation rate is probably 80% and they didn’t even build a sales office (a guy sits in the livingroom of one of the models and they use the sales office at hemmingway).
Based on the negatives I’ve listed I would not buy these even at 25% less than something a mile away and their prices don’t reflect that, even at 300k it’s not worth it. When the market was hot, things were built that shouldn’t have been, this is a prime example.
Participantsalo, avoid stratford, that has to be one of the worst locations in the area and they aren’t discounting enough to compensate for the drawbacks, unfortunately someone driving around can’t always see the drawbacks.
1. It is adjacent to the high school and actually the student parking lot access is in front of those homes even though it seems like it is behind the high school the traffic is brutal during ingress/egress. The stadium is nice and new and seems to be always hosting an event, you will be a hundred feet away and hearing every play.
2. On the other side is the indian reservation. While the majority of the indians have moved off the reservation with their newfound wealth, those that remain in the backyard of stratford spend their free time firing weapons in the air and riding off road vehicle/dirtbikes about fifty feet from those homes. I jog that area and before the houses started construction, there was more than one occasion that I ducked when hearing gunshots. You can’t complain about the off road vehicles or noise because to the police because they don’t have infraction authority on the reservation, temecula codes don’t apply and junk cars, yard appliances, graffiti (while not at every house, it is at some) cannot be addressed by the city.
3. While it is technically in redhawk, it really isn’t as far as access. Access is off Pechanga parkway and the beautiful landscaping and waterfalls that everyone else and their guests drive through aren’t visible driving to stratford, they enter by driving past the casino.
4. In my opinion this will be the first tract to go under mid development and the next few years the neighbors will be empty lots. The built the first street and didn’t sell anything. They redesigned the models and started again. Their cancellation rate is probably 80% and they didn’t even build a sales office (a guy sits in the livingroom of one of the models and they use the sales office at hemmingway).
Based on the negatives I’ve listed I would not buy these even at 25% less than something a mile away and their prices don’t reflect that, even at 300k it’s not worth it. When the market was hot, things were built that shouldn’t have been, this is a prime example.
ParticipantI’m gone a week and look at all these Temeculans taking my place, throwing down the facts. I’m proud and at the same time I realize how dispensable I am, someone always steps up. Pizza, Bear, TemekuT, nice work. But you illustrate why there will be support at some level for the good stuff. It is true that to San Diegans, they think all of Temecula is what they see in French Valley but those of us who have been here for a while know that there is a 10 degree temperature difference, a socio economic difference and a traffic difference. Sure they can claim there are no jobs, but they ignore the facts, the census data and lack the first hand knowledge. I’m with you bear, renting in Redhawk, watching it crumble but knowing full well that I’m not the only one who recognizes South 79 as a cut above. If cars suddenly lost half their value, guess what, everyone will want to upgrade to that BMW and not everyone is leveraged or laid off. There is more than a quarter of a million people up here and when things hit bottom, Morgan and Redhawk will recover first and find support first, so be on your toes or I’ll beat you to it. I doubt you’ll get 4000+ sq ft in Morgan sub 300 because there aren’t that many, probably less than a hundred were built but you will get 3500+ sq because it is more common, Sattui in Morgan will be first to hit that level with asking prices of 450k for repos next to 750k resales, that’s just going to cause more repos and on my last drive through a third of the lawns were brown and the 450k repos weren’t selling. The point is, location and quality has a price in any market and if you can get that price, the rest of the valley will still be 100k less. Smaller, older homes will be even less, at some point a house cannot be worth $200 and affordability for every Costco employee will not be a 4000 sq ft in the premier area, so things will separate themselves and there will be a bottom, ultimately, so no, you won’t get it for 300k because I will have already bought it at 305k and I fear the other guy at 310k because fundamentally that is extremely sound, maybe too sound.
ParticipantI’m gone a week and look at all these Temeculans taking my place, throwing down the facts. I’m proud and at the same time I realize how dispensable I am, someone always steps up. Pizza, Bear, TemekuT, nice work. But you illustrate why there will be support at some level for the good stuff. It is true that to San Diegans, they think all of Temecula is what they see in French Valley but those of us who have been here for a while know that there is a 10 degree temperature difference, a socio economic difference and a traffic difference. Sure they can claim there are no jobs, but they ignore the facts, the census data and lack the first hand knowledge. I’m with you bear, renting in Redhawk, watching it crumble but knowing full well that I’m not the only one who recognizes South 79 as a cut above. If cars suddenly lost half their value, guess what, everyone will want to upgrade to that BMW and not everyone is leveraged or laid off. There is more than a quarter of a million people up here and when things hit bottom, Morgan and Redhawk will recover first and find support first, so be on your toes or I’ll beat you to it. I doubt you’ll get 4000+ sq ft in Morgan sub 300 because there aren’t that many, probably less than a hundred were built but you will get 3500+ sq because it is more common, Sattui in Morgan will be first to hit that level with asking prices of 450k for repos next to 750k resales, that’s just going to cause more repos and on my last drive through a third of the lawns were brown and the 450k repos weren’t selling. The point is, location and quality has a price in any market and if you can get that price, the rest of the valley will still be 100k less. Smaller, older homes will be even less, at some point a house cannot be worth $200 and affordability for every Costco employee will not be a 4000 sq ft in the premier area, so things will separate themselves and there will be a bottom, ultimately, so no, you won’t get it for 300k because I will have already bought it at 305k and I fear the other guy at 310k because fundamentally that is extremely sound, maybe too sound.
ParticipantSweet, that’s my kind of marketing. Not just a free plasma t.v. but free porn, I’m sold.
ParticipantSweet, that’s my kind of marketing. Not just a free plasma t.v. but free porn, I’m sold.
ParticipantEx-SD, now that I am all the rage at parties with my reverse flipper wisdom, if the market turns and doubles by the end of the year will people make a website and point out the folly of my thinking. God I hope not. Whether I’m right or wrong I don’t care, I’m working this at parties, respected by men, desired by women, I’m a rock star.
ParticipantEx-SD, now that I am all the rage at parties with my reverse flipper wisdom, if the market turns and doubles by the end of the year will people make a website and point out the folly of my thinking. God I hope not. Whether I’m right or wrong I don’t care, I’m working this at parties, respected by men, desired by women, I’m a rock star.
ParticipantNavydoc, thanks, that was easily your best post ever. Without knowing it at the time, you were in medical school and business school at the same time. Both cost you money and both made you smarter. The people that learn today about zero down arm loans that they can’t afford will lose some money and end up renting, but most will have learned a valuable lesson. When someone gets cancer I feel bad for them, when someone has their house foreclosed on because they were overextended but still has their health and job, I look at it as “their” lesson. I have had many money losing lessons in my life and I always recover, wiser and richer in the end.
esmith, you bring up a valid point but there are some differences. In the non bubble markets that have high foreclosure rates they are a result of employment scenarios or just what would have been credit card debt a few years ago. Without the lax lending standards of the past few years, those same people in the non bubble areas would have racked up huge credit card debts and gone bankrupt. Today’s foreclosures in those areas would have happened but have manifested themselves in another form. The blame is not unrealistic pricing so the cure won’t be falling prices. It’s still a supply and demand scenario and there will be price declines in those areas but not on the magnitude of the bubble areas where that was the culprit. And you are right, there are probably many unqualified borrowers elsewhere as well.
ParticipantNavydoc, thanks, that was easily your best post ever. Without knowing it at the time, you were in medical school and business school at the same time. Both cost you money and both made you smarter. The people that learn today about zero down arm loans that they can’t afford will lose some money and end up renting, but most will have learned a valuable lesson. When someone gets cancer I feel bad for them, when someone has their house foreclosed on because they were overextended but still has their health and job, I look at it as “their” lesson. I have had many money losing lessons in my life and I always recover, wiser and richer in the end.
esmith, you bring up a valid point but there are some differences. In the non bubble markets that have high foreclosure rates they are a result of employment scenarios or just what would have been credit card debt a few years ago. Without the lax lending standards of the past few years, those same people in the non bubble areas would have racked up huge credit card debts and gone bankrupt. Today’s foreclosures in those areas would have happened but have manifested themselves in another form. The blame is not unrealistic pricing so the cure won’t be falling prices. It’s still a supply and demand scenario and there will be price declines in those areas but not on the magnitude of the bubble areas where that was the culprit. And you are right, there are probably many unqualified borrowers elsewhere as well.
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