Recap on Temeclua, Murrieta, French Valley, etc.?

[snail]

I beg to differ completely with you two. The one street in Morgan Hill and the other one in Wildomar might be filled with the 2% of the population that have the income and liquid asset to ride out the current situation, but that is small percentages of the population. I currently reside in the older part of Temecula (established older resident that probably were bought around 1990-1995), and on our street there are only 2 REO properties for sales (the places are being taken care off, so no dead grasses). However I just have a walk to the other side of street (not the same HOA) last time and the brown lawn properties struck me hard. Trashed lawn and wooden fences falling apart. Its sickening and sad.
Temecula is a great, however there is nothing to support the housing prices here. Seriously there is one fortune 100 company and then Costco or Macy (correct me if I am wrong). I don’t think you could afford a $400,000 house with Costco’s salary. Every Morning I looked at the jammed 15S frwy entrance, and feel sorry for those folks(been there). I don’t know about you, but if I am upside on my house and need to put up with all the commute to SD, I will more incline to turn over the keys (not considering the ARM reset if I took one of those)
On the other note, I likes some part of Winchester, which is closer to Temecula borders, but are concerned like what the other poster said about no HOA which could caused the whole neighborhood going bad

[snail]

I beg to differ completely with you two. The one street in Morgan Hill and the other one in Wildomar might be filled with the 2% of the population that have the income and liquid asset to ride out the current situation, but that is small percentages of the population. I currently reside in the older part of Temecula (established older resident that probably were bought around 1990-1995), and on our street there are only 2 REO properties for sales (the places are being taken care off, so no dead grasses). However I just have a walk to the other side of street (not the same HOA) last time and the brown lawn properties struck me hard. Trashed lawn and wooden fences falling apart. Its sickening and sad.
Temecula is a great, however there is nothing to support the housing prices here. Seriously there is one fortune 100 company and then Costco or Macy (correct me if I am wrong). I don’t think you could afford a $400,000 house with Costco’s salary. Every Morning I looked at the jammed 15S frwy entrance, and feel sorry for those folks(been there). I don’t know about you, but if I am upside on my house and need to put up with all the commute to SD, I will more incline to turn over the keys (not considering the ARM reset if I took one of those)
On the other note, I likes some part of Winchester, which is closer to Temecula borders, but are concerned like what the other poster said about no HOA which could caused the whole neighborhood going bad

[TemekuT]

Snail, go back and read my 2 prior posts carefully. Do I believe prices will decrease? Yes. How much? Remains to be seen, but I can tell you that I have access to the MLS and I keep a very close watch on Morgan Hill (not just my street) and can view the outstanding loans on properties listed on the MLS. (I do the same for Temeku Hills, as I own property there). I’m starting to see properties that were listed by empty nesters or by out of state investors with minimal to no loan being pulled off the market. Some of these homes have never been occupied and were cash purchases. It sure looks to me like these are people with sufficient assets to ride out the downturn.

As far as income to support the housing prices, the non-empty nesters on my street have professional jobs in local small businesses, or they are self-employed. We need to remember that most jobs come from small businesses, not large corporations. These neighbors are well paid.

Perhaps I am residing in a microcosm. This was a more expensive area initially and the buyers may have more liquid assets, thus this community may have longer to go before it crashes.

You may have read posts by SD Realtor and sdrealtor. They have responded to numerous questions about why certain areas are falling less than others. Bugs fills in with his appraisal insights. The fact that is pointed out is that it’s all about area. Temecula is just a more desirable area than others here in So. Riverside County so it will fall less than the outlying areas and recover more quickly.

[TemekuT]

Snail, go back and read my 2 prior posts carefully. Do I believe prices will decrease? Yes. How much? Remains to be seen, but I can tell you that I have access to the MLS and I keep a very close watch on Morgan Hill (not just my street) and can view the outstanding loans on properties listed on the MLS. (I do the same for Temeku Hills, as I own property there). I’m starting to see properties that were listed by empty nesters or by out of state investors with minimal to no loan being pulled off the market. Some of these homes have never been occupied and were cash purchases. It sure looks to me like these are people with sufficient assets to ride out the downturn.

As far as income to support the housing prices, the non-empty nesters on my street have professional jobs in local small businesses, or they are self-employed. We need to remember that most jobs come from small businesses, not large corporations. These neighbors are well paid.

Perhaps I am residing in a microcosm. This was a more expensive area initially and the buyers may have more liquid assets, thus this community may have longer to go before it crashes.

You may have read posts by SD Realtor and sdrealtor. They have responded to numerous questions about why certain areas are falling less than others. Bugs fills in with his appraisal insights. The fact that is pointed out is that it’s all about area. Temecula is just a more desirable area than others here in So. Riverside County so it will fall less than the outlying areas and recover more quickly.

[pizzaman]

I may be able to provide some insight here. I have lived in Murrieta for 20 years and own businesses in Temecula and French Valley so I am very familiar with all 3 areas. I sold both my primary residence and rental property a while back and I am sitting on the sidelines watching the carnage from my 4000 sq ft Murrieta rental McMansion. (BTW my landlord is negative close to $2000 a month so I’m sure it will be added to the REO list soon.)
When I do buy again it will be in either Temecula south of 79 (now Temecula Parkway) or Murrieta west of the 15. Its all about the weather, there is a dramatic difference between areas that do and do not get the afternoon breeze in the summer. French Valley is noticeably warmer.
All 3 areas have excellent schools, French Valley has a Winchester zip code but it is lies within the boundaries of the Temecula school district.

[pizzaman]

I may be able to provide some insight here. I have lived in Murrieta for 20 years and own businesses in Temecula and French Valley so I am very familiar with all 3 areas. I sold both my primary residence and rental property a while back and I am sitting on the sidelines watching the carnage from my 4000 sq ft Murrieta rental McMansion. (BTW my landlord is negative close to $2000 a month so I’m sure it will be added to the REO list soon.)
When I do buy again it will be in either Temecula south of 79 (now Temecula Parkway) or Murrieta west of the 15. Its all about the weather, there is a dramatic difference between areas that do and do not get the afternoon breeze in the summer. French Valley is noticeably warmer.
All 3 areas have excellent schools, French Valley has a Winchester zip code but it is lies within the boundaries of the Temecula school district.

[snail]

“Perhaps I am residing in a microcosm. This was a more expensive area initially and the buyers may have more liquid assets, thus this community may have longer to go before it crashes.”

You are definitely in the upper percentile of the population. This is basically a better educated/smarter group, that have more security and liquid asset to ride the storm out. I don’t think there are many of this example, if you take the percentage for the whole Temecula. Per your comment on Morgan Hills, please look into what is the total houses for sale and tell me what is the percentage of those houses has very low loan (up to 25% of the selling prices).
I completely agreed on Temecula will always command a higher prices compared to neighboring cities. Temecula has a best city government compared to the other, thus a better infrastructure. So people always willing to pay more to live in Temecula, I know I would.

[snail]

“Perhaps I am residing in a microcosm. This was a more expensive area initially and the buyers may have more liquid assets, thus this community may have longer to go before it crashes.”

You are definitely in the upper percentile of the population. This is basically a better educated/smarter group, that have more security and liquid asset to ride the storm out. I don’t think there are many of this example, if you take the percentage for the whole Temecula. Per your comment on Morgan Hills, please look into what is the total houses for sale and tell me what is the percentage of those houses has very low loan (up to 25% of the selling prices).
I completely agreed on Temecula will always command a higher prices compared to neighboring cities. Temecula has a best city government compared to the other, thus a better infrastructure. So people always willing to pay more to live in Temecula, I know I would.

[bearvine]

Unequivocally, Temecula is the best city in the IE to live in. Hands down, from infrastructure to geography and beyond.

In regards to Morgan Hill, having lived and owned there in multiple homes, and previously planning to make that the long term permanent home, IMO nicest of the tract neighborhoods in Temecula.

That being said, it is far from impervious. Look at the war zone on Mumm street, which was featured on LA’s channel 4 back in the summer as a street gone bad due to foreclosures. The streets where Shea developed- there’s a REO deal there at cheaper than 2004.

http://www.knbc.com/houseandhome/13514202/detail.html
http://video.knbc.com/player/?id=120347

(if these links dont work, go to the site and search under foreclosures-its on the 2nd page of results)

Tudal street has had foreclosures and dead lawns abundant since the beginning of the year, with the exception of the house that put astroturf in the front yard (not the good fake grass, astroturf)

McMillin does not have as deep of pockets as one may think, and though they have been trying to sell off inventory by cutting prices, wait till all those poor people who got snowed in 05 and 06 and 07 at peak prices have their 5 year ARMs end.

For those of you perusing this site with any inkling of buying, make sure it is your DREAM home. Remember the trickle down theory- the pain the major institutions are going through have yet to fully makes its way to us, and we are the ones who always pay the price.

I will buy back in Temecula as an investor, and to have a second home. One will likely be in Morgan Hill, have cash ready, and will pay no more than $300k for a 4000 sq ft home.

It’s already happening in Tuscany Hills of Lake Elsinore, which is(was) a very nice area in the wrong city. Would never buy there again though.

The crash is going to come hard, it’s tough to hear, but it is reality. Friends in the area who still own, have equity lines with 0 balances that were received at near peak value, they are prepared to use that money wisely to combat the loss in value they will get hit with. Perhaps buy something at the bottom (2010-2013 by most educated analysts prediction) sell on the next upswing on the investment property and be at a breakeven with their current home.

Just rent in Morgan Hill, 3000+ sq ft home, dont pay more than $2k.

[bearvine]

Unequivocally, Temecula is the best city in the IE to live in. Hands down, from infrastructure to geography and beyond.

In regards to Morgan Hill, having lived and owned there in multiple homes, and previously planning to make that the long term permanent home, IMO nicest of the tract neighborhoods in Temecula.

That being said, it is far from impervious. Look at the war zone on Mumm street, which was featured on LA’s channel 4 back in the summer as a street gone bad due to foreclosures. The streets where Shea developed- there’s a REO deal there at cheaper than 2004.

http://www.knbc.com/houseandhome/13514202/detail.html
http://video.knbc.com/player/?id=120347

(if these links dont work, go to the site and search under foreclosures-its on the 2nd page of results)

Tudal street has had foreclosures and dead lawns abundant since the beginning of the year, with the exception of the house that put astroturf in the front yard (not the good fake grass, astroturf)

McMillin does not have as deep of pockets as one may think, and though they have been trying to sell off inventory by cutting prices, wait till all those poor people who got snowed in 05 and 06 and 07 at peak prices have their 5 year ARMs end.

For those of you perusing this site with any inkling of buying, make sure it is your DREAM home. Remember the trickle down theory- the pain the major institutions are going through have yet to fully makes its way to us, and we are the ones who always pay the price.

I will buy back in Temecula as an investor, and to have a second home. One will likely be in Morgan Hill, have cash ready, and will pay no more than $300k for a 4000 sq ft home.

It’s already happening in Tuscany Hills of Lake Elsinore, which is(was) a very nice area in the wrong city. Would never buy there again though.

The crash is going to come hard, it’s tough to hear, but it is reality. Friends in the area who still own, have equity lines with 0 balances that were received at near peak value, they are prepared to use that money wisely to combat the loss in value they will get hit with. Perhaps buy something at the bottom (2010-2013 by most educated analysts prediction) sell on the next upswing on the investment property and be at a breakeven with their current home.

Just rent in Morgan Hill, 3000+ sq ft home, dont pay more than $2k.

[temeculaguy]

I’m gone a week and look at all these Temeculans taking my place, throwing down the facts. I’m proud and at the same time I realize how dispensable I am, someone always steps up. Pizza, Bear, TemekuT, nice work. But you illustrate why there will be support at some level for the good stuff. It is true that to San Diegans, they think all of Temecula is what they see in French Valley but those of us who have been here for a while know that there is a 10 degree temperature difference, a socio economic difference and a traffic difference. Sure they can claim there are no jobs, but they ignore the facts, the census data and lack the first hand knowledge. I’m with you bear, renting in Redhawk, watching it crumble but knowing full well that I’m not the only one who recognizes South 79 as a cut above. If cars suddenly lost half their value, guess what, everyone will want to upgrade to that BMW and not everyone is leveraged or laid off. There is more than a quarter of a million people up here and when things hit bottom, Morgan and Redhawk will recover first and find support first, so be on your toes or I’ll beat you to it. I doubt you’ll get 4000+ sq ft in Morgan sub 300 because there aren’t that many, probably less than a hundred were built but you will get 3500+ sq because it is more common, Sattui in Morgan will be first to hit that level with asking prices of 450k for repos next to 750k resales, that’s just going to cause more repos and on my last drive through a third of the lawns were brown and the 450k repos weren’t selling. The point is, location and quality has a price in any market and if you can get that price, the rest of the valley will still be 100k less. Smaller, older homes will be even less, at some point a house cannot be worth $200 and affordability for every Costco employee will not be a 4000 sq ft in the premier area, so things will separate themselves and there will be a bottom, ultimately, so no, you won’t get it for 300k because I will have already bought it at 305k and I fear the other guy at 310k because fundamentally that is extremely sound, maybe too sound.

[temeculaguy]

I’m gone a week and look at all these Temeculans taking my place, throwing down the facts. I’m proud and at the same time I realize how dispensable I am, someone always steps up. Pizza, Bear, TemekuT, nice work. But you illustrate why there will be support at some level for the good stuff. It is true that to San Diegans, they think all of Temecula is what they see in French Valley but those of us who have been here for a while know that there is a 10 degree temperature difference, a socio economic difference and a traffic difference. Sure they can claim there are no jobs, but they ignore the facts, the census data and lack the first hand knowledge. I’m with you bear, renting in Redhawk, watching it crumble but knowing full well that I’m not the only one who recognizes South 79 as a cut above. If cars suddenly lost half their value, guess what, everyone will want to upgrade to that BMW and not everyone is leveraged or laid off. There is more than a quarter of a million people up here and when things hit bottom, Morgan and Redhawk will recover first and find support first, so be on your toes or I’ll beat you to it. I doubt you’ll get 4000+ sq ft in Morgan sub 300 because there aren’t that many, probably less than a hundred were built but you will get 3500+ sq because it is more common, Sattui in Morgan will be first to hit that level with asking prices of 450k for repos next to 750k resales, that’s just going to cause more repos and on my last drive through a third of the lawns were brown and the 450k repos weren’t selling. The point is, location and quality has a price in any market and if you can get that price, the rest of the valley will still be 100k less. Smaller, older homes will be even less, at some point a house cannot be worth $200 and affordability for every Costco employee will not be a 4000 sq ft in the premier area, so things will separate themselves and there will be a bottom, ultimately, so no, you won’t get it for 300k because I will have already bought it at 305k and I fear the other guy at 310k because fundamentally that is extremely sound, maybe too sound.

[mydogsarelazy]

Just a quick political ad:

Mt. San Jacinto College urgently needs new Board of Trustee members. Just yesterday our vice president resigned.

If you live in Murrieta/Temecula, please visit this link:

http://www.votechrispedersen.com/

If you live in the Redhawk area of Temecula, please support Greg Barker in his race to unseat Gene Kadow:

http://www.putstudents1st.com

[mydogsarelazy]

Just a quick political ad:

Mt. San Jacinto College urgently needs new Board of Trustee members. Just yesterday our vice president resigned.

If you live in Murrieta/Temecula, please visit this link:

http://www.votechrispedersen.com/

If you live in the Redhawk area of Temecula, please support Greg Barker in his race to unseat Gene Kadow:

http://www.putstudents1st.com

[bearvine]

4000 sq ft for $300k is a good goal in Morgan Hill, we know it will get to $100 sq ft because it is already there in so many areas. TG, you are right, there aren’t too many this size in MH, but there are plenty in the 3000-3700 sq ft range, and these will be sub $300.

So if you do beat me out, and get that 4000 sq ft home with a view, upgrades, and only needing the brown landscaping replaced for $305, as long as I am in the $80 per sq ft range I’ll be happy.

However, I still not make a move until we find out what McMillin does with all those lots planned on the other side of Blackstone. They do not have Irvine Co deep pockets, where they can just sit on it for years.

I am still sensing McMillin auctions coming in the near future.

Anyways, for those considering buying in French Valley,Elsinore, Wildomar, Hemet, Beaumont, or anything like that, JUST DON’T. You’ll regret it soon.

If you have to get a deal, and you work in town or SD, get a deal in South Temecula.

If you commute from OC/LA get a deal in Harveston, just make sure you stay in Temecula. If you do Murrieta make sure its close to the 15.

[Author]

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