Temecula’s falling knife :)

[SDHousehunter]

Falling Knife in Temecula

33602 EMERSON WAY UNIT A
TEMECULA, CA

LAST SALE: $245,000 (10/17/2007)
BEDS: 2
BATHS: 2
SQ.FT.: 1,532
YEAR BUILT: 2003

Just look at the comps. There are A, B and C units in this complex. Beginning of 2005 the C units were peaking at $355,00 with sellers listing at $389,000.
Bear in mind the A and B are higher end without the joy of living over a neighbor’s garage.

3417 EMERSON WAY UNIT C
TEMECULA, CA
LAST SALE: $345,000 (12/07/2004)
SQ.FT.: 1,408
YEAR BUILT: 2002

Here we have an A unit sold for $245,000 on 10/16.

This is $160 per sq ft. (Overpriced)

Similar Units

3657 EMERSON WAY UNIT A
TEMECULA, CA
LAST SALE: $365,000 (02/17/2005)
SQ.FT.: 1,532
YEAR BUILT: 2003

33672 WINSTON WAY UNIT A
TEMECULA, CA
LAST SALE: $382,000 (11/18/2005)
SQ.FT.: 1,674
YEAR BUILT: 2003

33471 WINSTON WAY UNIT A
TEMECULA, CA
LAST SALE: $355,000 (06/01/2005)
SQ.FT.: 1,532
YEAR BUILT: 2003

This is almost a freaking 30% dekline in value almost overnight. How do you recover from that loss? When it represents 10 years of payments? How do you move and sell when you have no equity? How do young families increase living space with more children?

You don’t.

Subprime market ABX is dead.

FHA wants 28% gross documented income.

Builders will slash to survive and not lose business to resellers.

And to all you renters who didn’t “get in the market” and put up with all this bulls*&t of everyone get rich quick. . .kick back. . .laugh. . . and watch these poor suckers. They deserved it and in the long run better now than later.

[Ex-SD]

You and I are in total agreement on this subject.
Good facts for those who are still thinking of buying right now.

[Ex-SD]

You and I are in total agreement on this subject.
Good facts for those who are still thinking of buying right now.

[Ex-SD]

You and I are in total agreement on this subject.
Good facts for those who are still thinking of buying right now.

[bsrsharma]

None of them are worth even $200K. Why buy a Condo in Temecula when you can get pretty nice SFRs at affordable prices soon? These are only fit for rentals and for that, the prices should start approaching $150K at most.

[bsrsharma]

None of them are worth even $200K. Why buy a Condo in Temecula when you can get pretty nice SFRs at affordable prices soon? These are only fit for rentals and for that, the prices should start approaching $150K at most.

[bsrsharma]

None of them are worth even $200K. Why buy a Condo in Temecula when you can get pretty nice SFRs at affordable prices soon? These are only fit for rentals and for that, the prices should start approaching $150K at most.

[bsrsharma]

None of them are worth even $200K. Why buy a Condo in Temecula when you can get pretty nice SFRs at affordable prices soon? These are only fit for rentals and for that, the prices should start approaching $150K at most.

[patientlywaiting]

bsrsharma, I don’t really get you.

On the other thread you said it’s good to get a loan now and buy because inflation will take care of the rest ($20,000 monthly salary for everyone in 10 years).

Then now you say that a house that just sold for $245,000 (down from peak of $382k) will drop to $150k.

Why bother with borrowing money to buy now? Save your money, let inflation/high interest rates grow your money for a few years and pay cash!

[patientlywaiting]

bsrsharma, I don’t really get you.

On the other thread you said it’s good to get a loan now and buy because inflation will take care of the rest ($20,000 monthly salary for everyone in 10 years).

Then now you say that a house that just sold for $245,000 (down from peak of $382k) will drop to $150k.

Why bother with borrowing money to buy now? Save your money, let inflation/high interest rates grow your money for a few years and pay cash!

[patientlywaiting]

bsrsharma, I don’t really get you.

On the other thread you said it’s good to get a loan now and buy because inflation will take care of the rest ($20,000 monthly salary for everyone in 10 years).

Then now you say that a house that just sold for $245,000 (down from peak of $382k) will drop to $150k.

Why bother with borrowing money to buy now? Save your money, let inflation/high interest rates grow your money for a few years and pay cash!

[patientlywaiting]

bsrsharma, I don’t really get you.

On the other thread you said it’s good to get a loan now and buy because inflation will take care of the rest ($20,000 monthly salary for everyone in 10 years).

Then now you say that a house that just sold for $245,000 (down from peak of $382k) will drop to $150k.

Why bother with borrowing money to buy now? Save your money, let inflation/high interest rates grow your money for a few years and pay cash!

[temeculaguy]

Actually I have some familiarity with these, they will end up being priced around 200k when this shakes out, that was their pre-bubble price when they sold new (160 or 180 to 220, from memory). These are true townhouses, attached 2 car garages and the A and B units share very little wall space, mostly the garage walls. There isn’t much condo stock in the zip code, it’s probably less than 10% so the market shouldn’t beat these any more than the sfr market by %. People that bought resales in the mid to high 300’s are just screwed, but the rent is about 1500, give or take, so the 150x rent is 225k. The zip code contains california’s largest casino which has thousands of “rental demographic” jobs yet there are almost no apartments other than the new ones on 79S where rents are 1400-1800 for a dinky, stair climbing, carport, true apartment complex, so these are a somewhat safe sub 225k investment.

What will drive these down to the the low 200’s is the new D.R. horton condos at temecula lane in the 200’s and the unattached, condoesque, shared driveway or alley homes in Wolf Creek that are approaching the sub 300’s and are much nicer.

I don’t know what the suprise is, most of the market is on it’s way back to 2002 or 2003 prices, representing a 50% decline and fundamentally there is nothing that will stop it. In fact $100 a barrel oil will accelerate it for outlying suburbs or exurbs.

[temeculaguy]

Actually I have some familiarity with these, they will end up being priced around 200k when this shakes out, that was their pre-bubble price when they sold new (160 or 180 to 220, from memory). These are true townhouses, attached 2 car garages and the A and B units share very little wall space, mostly the garage walls. There isn’t much condo stock in the zip code, it’s probably less than 10% so the market shouldn’t beat these any more than the sfr market by %. People that bought resales in the mid to high 300’s are just screwed, but the rent is about 1500, give or take, so the 150x rent is 225k. The zip code contains california’s largest casino which has thousands of “rental demographic” jobs yet there are almost no apartments other than the new ones on 79S where rents are 1400-1800 for a dinky, stair climbing, carport, true apartment complex, so these are a somewhat safe sub 225k investment.

What will drive these down to the the low 200’s is the new D.R. horton condos at temecula lane in the 200’s and the unattached, condoesque, shared driveway or alley homes in Wolf Creek that are approaching the sub 300’s and are much nicer.

I don’t know what the suprise is, most of the market is on it’s way back to 2002 or 2003 prices, representing a 50% decline and fundamentally there is nothing that will stop it. In fact $100 a barrel oil will accelerate it for outlying suburbs or exurbs.

[temeculaguy]

Actually I have some familiarity with these, they will end up being priced around 200k when this shakes out, that was their pre-bubble price when they sold new (160 or 180 to 220, from memory). These are true townhouses, attached 2 car garages and the A and B units share very little wall space, mostly the garage walls. There isn’t much condo stock in the zip code, it’s probably less than 10% so the market shouldn’t beat these any more than the sfr market by %. People that bought resales in the mid to high 300’s are just screwed, but the rent is about 1500, give or take, so the 150x rent is 225k. The zip code contains california’s largest casino which has thousands of “rental demographic” jobs yet there are almost no apartments other than the new ones on 79S where rents are 1400-1800 for a dinky, stair climbing, carport, true apartment complex, so these are a somewhat safe sub 225k investment.

What will drive these down to the the low 200’s is the new D.R. horton condos at temecula lane in the 200’s and the unattached, condoesque, shared driveway or alley homes in Wolf Creek that are approaching the sub 300’s and are much nicer.

I don’t know what the suprise is, most of the market is on it’s way back to 2002 or 2003 prices, representing a 50% decline and fundamentally there is nothing that will stop it. In fact $100 a barrel oil will accelerate it for outlying suburbs or exurbs.

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