[temeculaguy]

http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92592

as you can see from this chart from my hood, average sold can exceed average list. You can also click on a few boxes at the top of the chart and also see number listed, number sold and percentage of sold to list.

But I don’t agree with the logic, that the point when sale to list are in balance that it indicates a time to buy. What it does say about a market is that sellers are realistic and are listing at prices that people will pay, that they stopped waiting for the other side to blink.

Not sure if this has anything to do with anything, but looking just below your graph at some of the data, the SD median price per sq ft is down 3.8% YOY, while my hood is up 6.1% YOY, also the days on market are longer. So maybe you are onto something, maybe when there is a disparity between list and sales prices, it indicates it is not healthy yet, that one side is going to have move their price or both will, maybe it just indicates volitility potential. I think if you look at specific zip codes you might be able to glean some good info but looking at a county of 3 million and waiting for converegence in the entire market might be asking too much. I’ll bet that there are micro market or zip codes where there is parity. However I’m still unconvinced that means anything or can indicate the future. Someone smarter than me is going to have to look at it. Perhaps one of the resident geniuses can see if that has any past indication of price volatility. Lot’s of things in real estate should make sense but don’t.

[temeculaguy]

http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92592

as you can see from this chart from my hood, average sold can exceed average list. You can also click on a few boxes at the top of the chart and also see number listed, number sold and percentage of sold to list.

But I don’t agree with the logic, that the point when sale to list are in balance that it indicates a time to buy. What it does say about a market is that sellers are realistic and are listing at prices that people will pay, that they stopped waiting for the other side to blink.

Not sure if this has anything to do with anything, but looking just below your graph at some of the data, the SD median price per sq ft is down 3.8% YOY, while my hood is up 6.1% YOY, also the days on market are longer. So maybe you are onto something, maybe when there is a disparity between list and sales prices, it indicates it is not healthy yet, that one side is going to have move their price or both will, maybe it just indicates volitility potential. I think if you look at specific zip codes you might be able to glean some good info but looking at a county of 3 million and waiting for converegence in the entire market might be asking too much. I’ll bet that there are micro market or zip codes where there is parity. However I’m still unconvinced that means anything or can indicate the future. Someone smarter than me is going to have to look at it. Perhaps one of the resident geniuses can see if that has any past indication of price volatility. Lot’s of things in real estate should make sense but don’t.

[temeculaguy]

http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92592

as you can see from this chart from my hood, average sold can exceed average list. You can also click on a few boxes at the top of the chart and also see number listed, number sold and percentage of sold to list.

But I don’t agree with the logic, that the point when sale to list are in balance that it indicates a time to buy. What it does say about a market is that sellers are realistic and are listing at prices that people will pay, that they stopped waiting for the other side to blink.

Not sure if this has anything to do with anything, but looking just below your graph at some of the data, the SD median price per sq ft is down 3.8% YOY, while my hood is up 6.1% YOY, also the days on market are longer. So maybe you are onto something, maybe when there is a disparity between list and sales prices, it indicates it is not healthy yet, that one side is going to have move their price or both will, maybe it just indicates volitility potential. I think if you look at specific zip codes you might be able to glean some good info but looking at a county of 3 million and waiting for converegence in the entire market might be asking too much. I’ll bet that there are micro market or zip codes where there is parity. However I’m still unconvinced that means anything or can indicate the future. Someone smarter than me is going to have to look at it. Perhaps one of the resident geniuses can see if that has any past indication of price volatility. Lot’s of things in real estate should make sense but don’t.

[temeculaguy]

http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92592

as you can see from this chart from my hood, average sold can exceed average list. You can also click on a few boxes at the top of the chart and also see number listed, number sold and percentage of sold to list.

But I don’t agree with the logic, that the point when sale to list are in balance that it indicates a time to buy. What it does say about a market is that sellers are realistic and are listing at prices that people will pay, that they stopped waiting for the other side to blink.

Not sure if this has anything to do with anything, but looking just below your graph at some of the data, the SD median price per sq ft is down 3.8% YOY, while my hood is up 6.1% YOY, also the days on market are longer. So maybe you are onto something, maybe when there is a disparity between list and sales prices, it indicates it is not healthy yet, that one side is going to have move their price or both will, maybe it just indicates volitility potential. I think if you look at specific zip codes you might be able to glean some good info but looking at a county of 3 million and waiting for converegence in the entire market might be asking too much. I’ll bet that there are micro market or zip codes where there is parity. However I’m still unconvinced that means anything or can indicate the future. Someone smarter than me is going to have to look at it. Perhaps one of the resident geniuses can see if that has any past indication of price volatility. Lot’s of things in real estate should make sense but don’t.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks JP, I recently have been spending a great deal of time talking with a someone who has lived abroad for most of their life. It caused me to see “us” in a different light, yet not a negative light. It’s had a profound effect on my thinking. We are such a young place, California has only existed for 161 years and has seen radical change in that time. But this isssue, along with a few others have probably settled into their groove, the pendulum is slowing down. At least that’s how I see it, glad you liked it.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks JP, I recently have been spending a great deal of time talking with a someone who has lived abroad for most of their life. It caused me to see “us” in a different light, yet not a negative light. It’s had a profound effect on my thinking. We are such a young place, California has only existed for 161 years and has seen radical change in that time. But this isssue, along with a few others have probably settled into their groove, the pendulum is slowing down. At least that’s how I see it, glad you liked it.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks JP, I recently have been spending a great deal of time talking with a someone who has lived abroad for most of their life. It caused me to see “us” in a different light, yet not a negative light. It’s had a profound effect on my thinking. We are such a young place, California has only existed for 161 years and has seen radical change in that time. But this isssue, along with a few others have probably settled into their groove, the pendulum is slowing down. At least that’s how I see it, glad you liked it.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks JP, I recently have been spending a great deal of time talking with a someone who has lived abroad for most of their life. It caused me to see “us” in a different light, yet not a negative light. It’s had a profound effect on my thinking. We are such a young place, California has only existed for 161 years and has seen radical change in that time. But this isssue, along with a few others have probably settled into their groove, the pendulum is slowing down. At least that’s how I see it, glad you liked it.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks JP, I recently have been spending a great deal of time talking with a someone who has lived abroad for most of their life. It caused me to see “us” in a different light, yet not a negative light. It’s had a profound effect on my thinking. We are such a young place, California has only existed for 161 years and has seen radical change in that time. But this isssue, along with a few others have probably settled into their groove, the pendulum is slowing down. At least that’s how I see it, glad you liked it.

[temeculaguy]

I have mixed feelings on this topic. I think the closest analogy I can make would be the legality of alcohol. It is part of our culture, I like it, and I understand all the rules related to it. I also know that no matter how many articles I read regarding the benefits of red wine on a daily basis, I know i would be healtier without it (but maybe not happier).

Same as with guns, we’ve always had them, sometimes they are needed, they make people happy and you can argue it all day but they aren’t good for you. The cold reality is probably more than 90% of handgun owners will fail miserably if they had to use them. More people will win the lottery in this region than will successfully shoot a bad guy in their home. The odds are far more likely that if you go buy a gun and bring it home, you or someone who lives in that home will be shot with it as opposed to an intruder. But don’t confuse that statement with the odds of something bad happening at all. The most likely thing that will happen is..nothing. It will just bring you peace of mind and it will never kill anyone.

Can anyone point to a story in the last few years of someone in the San Diego area who has killed an intruder, I can think of no more than two. You can certainly read a story every week where a gun from a home is used in a domestic violence situation or a suicide (actually the media doesn’t carry many of the suicides, but they are commonplace and it’s usually a gun from within the home). I’ll bet accidental shootings outnumber intruder shootings.

The poster that claimed many gunowners practice and are responsible, there’s more to shooting than firing at the range. A very low percentage of gun owners practice in different lighting, use auditory distractions like airhorns, have object thrown at them while shooting, shoot while moving and most importantly almost none of them shoot while they are scared to death and have their adrenaline pumping to the point that their hearing, vision, judgement and aim are impaired. Because that is what they will encounter when it really happens. Ask anyone who has not just been in the military or law enforcement but has been in combat situations where people have been shot, it takes a few gun battles before you get any good at it. The first time you need a little luck. The average or above average citizen, thankfully, will never develop the skills. Right now, not everyone owns guns, many who do, take it seriously. If we encouraged everyone to own one, the percentage of the additional gun owners that took it seriously would be lower than the percentage of those who right now go out of their way to have it as a hobby. It should be a difficult hobby to have, that is a way to filter people who should be filtered. The way it is right now is probably as good as it will get.

But that’s where my opposition ends. Because I like the way things are, the media may make it seem like we are living in a crime rampant society, but other than a few highly public incidents, it’s as safe as it has been in decades. So why change that. Few places on the planet are as safe. Rules need to be universal and the only way we can arm the ones I want armed is to open it up to most everyone. So I think I prefer to leave things as they are. Plus I like my guns, I’d prefer to keep them. I like my wine, I’d prefer to keep that too. If it means that there will be some misuse of either by some people, then that is a neccesary side effect. I like living in the land of the free, but I am well aware it is not the land of the perfect, not sure it is possible to have both.

Before someone bings up some Western European Country let me remind you, we have never been and will never be Western Europe. So stop getting frustrated with it and celebrate what our culture is. We will always have SUV’s and Trucks, we will eat red meat, we will like distance from neighbors and despise mass transit. We will like guns, plastic surgery, personal freedom and what I just did…..speak my mind. It is what it is.

[temeculaguy]

I have mixed feelings on this topic. I think the closest analogy I can make would be the legality of alcohol. It is part of our culture, I like it, and I understand all the rules related to it. I also know that no matter how many articles I read regarding the benefits of red wine on a daily basis, I know i would be healtier without it (but maybe not happier).

Same as with guns, we’ve always had them, sometimes they are needed, they make people happy and you can argue it all day but they aren’t good for you. The cold reality is probably more than 90% of handgun owners will fail miserably if they had to use them. More people will win the lottery in this region than will successfully shoot a bad guy in their home. The odds are far more likely that if you go buy a gun and bring it home, you or someone who lives in that home will be shot with it as opposed to an intruder. But don’t confuse that statement with the odds of something bad happening at all. The most likely thing that will happen is..nothing. It will just bring you peace of mind and it will never kill anyone.

Can anyone point to a story in the last few years of someone in the San Diego area who has killed an intruder, I can think of no more than two. You can certainly read a story every week where a gun from a home is used in a domestic violence situation or a suicide (actually the media doesn’t carry many of the suicides, but they are commonplace and it’s usually a gun from within the home). I’ll bet accidental shootings outnumber intruder shootings.

The poster that claimed many gunowners practice and are responsible, there’s more to shooting than firing at the range. A very low percentage of gun owners practice in different lighting, use auditory distractions like airhorns, have object thrown at them while shooting, shoot while moving and most importantly almost none of them shoot while they are scared to death and have their adrenaline pumping to the point that their hearing, vision, judgement and aim are impaired. Because that is what they will encounter when it really happens. Ask anyone who has not just been in the military or law enforcement but has been in combat situations where people have been shot, it takes a few gun battles before you get any good at it. The first time you need a little luck. The average or above average citizen, thankfully, will never develop the skills. Right now, not everyone owns guns, many who do, take it seriously. If we encouraged everyone to own one, the percentage of the additional gun owners that took it seriously would be lower than the percentage of those who right now go out of their way to have it as a hobby. It should be a difficult hobby to have, that is a way to filter people who should be filtered. The way it is right now is probably as good as it will get.

But that’s where my opposition ends. Because I like the way things are, the media may make it seem like we are living in a crime rampant society, but other than a few highly public incidents, it’s as safe as it has been in decades. So why change that. Few places on the planet are as safe. Rules need to be universal and the only way we can arm the ones I want armed is to open it up to most everyone. So I think I prefer to leave things as they are. Plus I like my guns, I’d prefer to keep them. I like my wine, I’d prefer to keep that too. If it means that there will be some misuse of either by some people, then that is a neccesary side effect. I like living in the land of the free, but I am well aware it is not the land of the perfect, not sure it is possible to have both.

Before someone bings up some Western European Country let me remind you, we have never been and will never be Western Europe. So stop getting frustrated with it and celebrate what our culture is. We will always have SUV’s and Trucks, we will eat red meat, we will like distance from neighbors and despise mass transit. We will like guns, plastic surgery, personal freedom and what I just did…..speak my mind. It is what it is.

[temeculaguy]

I have mixed feelings on this topic. I think the closest analogy I can make would be the legality of alcohol. It is part of our culture, I like it, and I understand all the rules related to it. I also know that no matter how many articles I read regarding the benefits of red wine on a daily basis, I know i would be healtier without it (but maybe not happier).

Same as with guns, we’ve always had them, sometimes they are needed, they make people happy and you can argue it all day but they aren’t good for you. The cold reality is probably more than 90% of handgun owners will fail miserably if they had to use them. More people will win the lottery in this region than will successfully shoot a bad guy in their home. The odds are far more likely that if you go buy a gun and bring it home, you or someone who lives in that home will be shot with it as opposed to an intruder. But don’t confuse that statement with the odds of something bad happening at all. The most likely thing that will happen is..nothing. It will just bring you peace of mind and it will never kill anyone.

Can anyone point to a story in the last few years of someone in the San Diego area who has killed an intruder, I can think of no more than two. You can certainly read a story every week where a gun from a home is used in a domestic violence situation or a suicide (actually the media doesn’t carry many of the suicides, but they are commonplace and it’s usually a gun from within the home). I’ll bet accidental shootings outnumber intruder shootings.

The poster that claimed many gunowners practice and are responsible, there’s more to shooting than firing at the range. A very low percentage of gun owners practice in different lighting, use auditory distractions like airhorns, have object thrown at them while shooting, shoot while moving and most importantly almost none of them shoot while they are scared to death and have their adrenaline pumping to the point that their hearing, vision, judgement and aim are impaired. Because that is what they will encounter when it really happens. Ask anyone who has not just been in the military or law enforcement but has been in combat situations where people have been shot, it takes a few gun battles before you get any good at it. The first time you need a little luck. The average or above average citizen, thankfully, will never develop the skills. Right now, not everyone owns guns, many who do, take it seriously. If we encouraged everyone to own one, the percentage of the additional gun owners that took it seriously would be lower than the percentage of those who right now go out of their way to have it as a hobby. It should be a difficult hobby to have, that is a way to filter people who should be filtered. The way it is right now is probably as good as it will get.

But that’s where my opposition ends. Because I like the way things are, the media may make it seem like we are living in a crime rampant society, but other than a few highly public incidents, it’s as safe as it has been in decades. So why change that. Few places on the planet are as safe. Rules need to be universal and the only way we can arm the ones I want armed is to open it up to most everyone. So I think I prefer to leave things as they are. Plus I like my guns, I’d prefer to keep them. I like my wine, I’d prefer to keep that too. If it means that there will be some misuse of either by some people, then that is a neccesary side effect. I like living in the land of the free, but I am well aware it is not the land of the perfect, not sure it is possible to have both.

Before someone bings up some Western European Country let me remind you, we have never been and will never be Western Europe. So stop getting frustrated with it and celebrate what our culture is. We will always have SUV’s and Trucks, we will eat red meat, we will like distance from neighbors and despise mass transit. We will like guns, plastic surgery, personal freedom and what I just did…..speak my mind. It is what it is.

[temeculaguy]

I have mixed feelings on this topic. I think the closest analogy I can make would be the legality of alcohol. It is part of our culture, I like it, and I understand all the rules related to it. I also know that no matter how many articles I read regarding the benefits of red wine on a daily basis, I know i would be healtier without it (but maybe not happier).

Same as with guns, we’ve always had them, sometimes they are needed, they make people happy and you can argue it all day but they aren’t good for you. The cold reality is probably more than 90% of handgun owners will fail miserably if they had to use them. More people will win the lottery in this region than will successfully shoot a bad guy in their home. The odds are far more likely that if you go buy a gun and bring it home, you or someone who lives in that home will be shot with it as opposed to an intruder. But don’t confuse that statement with the odds of something bad happening at all. The most likely thing that will happen is..nothing. It will just bring you peace of mind and it will never kill anyone.

Can anyone point to a story in the last few years of someone in the San Diego area who has killed an intruder, I can think of no more than two. You can certainly read a story every week where a gun from a home is used in a domestic violence situation or a suicide (actually the media doesn’t carry many of the suicides, but they are commonplace and it’s usually a gun from within the home). I’ll bet accidental shootings outnumber intruder shootings.

The poster that claimed many gunowners practice and are responsible, there’s more to shooting than firing at the range. A very low percentage of gun owners practice in different lighting, use auditory distractions like airhorns, have object thrown at them while shooting, shoot while moving and most importantly almost none of them shoot while they are scared to death and have their adrenaline pumping to the point that their hearing, vision, judgement and aim are impaired. Because that is what they will encounter when it really happens. Ask anyone who has not just been in the military or law enforcement but has been in combat situations where people have been shot, it takes a few gun battles before you get any good at it. The first time you need a little luck. The average or above average citizen, thankfully, will never develop the skills. Right now, not everyone owns guns, many who do, take it seriously. If we encouraged everyone to own one, the percentage of the additional gun owners that took it seriously would be lower than the percentage of those who right now go out of their way to have it as a hobby. It should be a difficult hobby to have, that is a way to filter people who should be filtered. The way it is right now is probably as good as it will get.

But that’s where my opposition ends. Because I like the way things are, the media may make it seem like we are living in a crime rampant society, but other than a few highly public incidents, it’s as safe as it has been in decades. So why change that. Few places on the planet are as safe. Rules need to be universal and the only way we can arm the ones I want armed is to open it up to most everyone. So I think I prefer to leave things as they are. Plus I like my guns, I’d prefer to keep them. I like my wine, I’d prefer to keep that too. If it means that there will be some misuse of either by some people, then that is a neccesary side effect. I like living in the land of the free, but I am well aware it is not the land of the perfect, not sure it is possible to have both.

Before someone bings up some Western European Country let me remind you, we have never been and will never be Western Europe. So stop getting frustrated with it and celebrate what our culture is. We will always have SUV’s and Trucks, we will eat red meat, we will like distance from neighbors and despise mass transit. We will like guns, plastic surgery, personal freedom and what I just did…..speak my mind. It is what it is.

[temeculaguy]

I have mixed feelings on this topic. I think the closest analogy I can make would be the legality of alcohol. It is part of our culture, I like it, and I understand all the rules related to it. I also know that no matter how many articles I read regarding the benefits of red wine on a daily basis, I know i would be healtier without it (but maybe not happier).

Same as with guns, we’ve always had them, sometimes they are needed, they make people happy and you can argue it all day but they aren’t good for you. The cold reality is probably more than 90% of handgun owners will fail miserably if they had to use them. More people will win the lottery in this region than will successfully shoot a bad guy in their home. The odds are far more likely that if you go buy a gun and bring it home, you or someone who lives in that home will be shot with it as opposed to an intruder. But don’t confuse that statement with the odds of something bad happening at all. The most likely thing that will happen is..nothing. It will just bring you peace of mind and it will never kill anyone.

Can anyone point to a story in the last few years of someone in the San Diego area who has killed an intruder, I can think of no more than two. You can certainly read a story every week where a gun from a home is used in a domestic violence situation or a suicide (actually the media doesn’t carry many of the suicides, but they are commonplace and it’s usually a gun from within the home). I’ll bet accidental shootings outnumber intruder shootings.

The poster that claimed many gunowners practice and are responsible, there’s more to shooting than firing at the range. A very low percentage of gun owners practice in different lighting, use auditory distractions like airhorns, have object thrown at them while shooting, shoot while moving and most importantly almost none of them shoot while they are scared to death and have their adrenaline pumping to the point that their hearing, vision, judgement and aim are impaired. Because that is what they will encounter when it really happens. Ask anyone who has not just been in the military or law enforcement but has been in combat situations where people have been shot, it takes a few gun battles before you get any good at it. The first time you need a little luck. The average or above average citizen, thankfully, will never develop the skills. Right now, not everyone owns guns, many who do, take it seriously. If we encouraged everyone to own one, the percentage of the additional gun owners that took it seriously would be lower than the percentage of those who right now go out of their way to have it as a hobby. It should be a difficult hobby to have, that is a way to filter people who should be filtered. The way it is right now is probably as good as it will get.

But that’s where my opposition ends. Because I like the way things are, the media may make it seem like we are living in a crime rampant society, but other than a few highly public incidents, it’s as safe as it has been in decades. So why change that. Few places on the planet are as safe. Rules need to be universal and the only way we can arm the ones I want armed is to open it up to most everyone. So I think I prefer to leave things as they are. Plus I like my guns, I’d prefer to keep them. I like my wine, I’d prefer to keep that too. If it means that there will be some misuse of either by some people, then that is a neccesary side effect. I like living in the land of the free, but I am well aware it is not the land of the perfect, not sure it is possible to have both.

Before someone bings up some Western European Country let me remind you, we have never been and will never be Western Europe. So stop getting frustrated with it and celebrate what our culture is. We will always have SUV’s and Trucks, we will eat red meat, we will like distance from neighbors and despise mass transit. We will like guns, plastic surgery, personal freedom and what I just did…..speak my mind. It is what it is.

[temeculaguy]

I like what SDR said about how sometimes different neighborhoods, despite their appearance, can have a different feel. I think it can also be expanded to different streets within a single development. Once you dig a particular neigborhood or house, visit it a few times on different days of the week and times, introduce yourself to someone out in front of their house and strike up a conversation. General rules sometimes apply, but not always. Neighborhoods and streets can evolve and what might be positive for one person can be a negative for others. When my kids were little, I lucked into a street that was filled with kids their age. That was 13 years ago, it’s not the same now, there are hardly any little kids on my old street, many are off to college or driving so the street is not what it was. In another ten years, many of those people may move and another wave of little kids might move in. If you don’t want to be the only people with kids on the street, housing style and lot size isn’t always a guarantee. Now that I don’t have little kids, now that they drive and lead different lives, I chose not to live on a cul de sac and chose to live on a hill for the view, my needs changed. I’ve never seen kids in my street but two streets away it is like a carnival on a daily basis. The few elementary/jr high aged kids on my street would probably love to live on that other street but their parents probably weren’t paying attention to those details when they bought. Now I like how where I am, it is quiet, there is plenty of room that ten cars can be parked in front of my house when I throw a party and I am less likely to disturb anyone. 10-15 years ago, the carnival style street was perfect. So once you narrow things down to a general area, don’t stop scrutinizing, the little details mean probably as much as the big ones.

[Author]

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