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waiting hawk.
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January 22, 2011 at 4:12 PM #18426January 22, 2011 at 5:13 PM #657086
temeculaguy
Participanthttp://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92592
as you can see from this chart from my hood, average sold can exceed average list. You can also click on a few boxes at the top of the chart and also see number listed, number sold and percentage of sold to list.
But I don’t agree with the logic, that the point when sale to list are in balance that it indicates a time to buy. What it does say about a market is that sellers are realistic and are listing at prices that people will pay, that they stopped waiting for the other side to blink.
Not sure if this has anything to do with anything, but looking just below your graph at some of the data, the SD median price per sq ft is down 3.8% YOY, while my hood is up 6.1% YOY, also the days on market are longer. So maybe you are onto something, maybe when there is a disparity between list and sales prices, it indicates it is not healthy yet, that one side is going to have move their price or both will, maybe it just indicates volitility potential. I think if you look at specific zip codes you might be able to glean some good info but looking at a county of 3 million and waiting for converegence in the entire market might be asking too much. I’ll bet that there are micro market or zip codes where there is parity. However I’m still unconvinced that means anything or can indicate the future. Someone smarter than me is going to have to look at it. Perhaps one of the resident geniuses can see if that has any past indication of price volatility. Lot’s of things in real estate should make sense but don’t.
January 22, 2011 at 5:13 PM #657147Participanthttp://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92592
as you can see from this chart from my hood, average sold can exceed average list. You can also click on a few boxes at the top of the chart and also see number listed, number sold and percentage of sold to list.
But I don’t agree with the logic, that the point when sale to list are in balance that it indicates a time to buy. What it does say about a market is that sellers are realistic and are listing at prices that people will pay, that they stopped waiting for the other side to blink.
Not sure if this has anything to do with anything, but looking just below your graph at some of the data, the SD median price per sq ft is down 3.8% YOY, while my hood is up 6.1% YOY, also the days on market are longer. So maybe you are onto something, maybe when there is a disparity between list and sales prices, it indicates it is not healthy yet, that one side is going to have move their price or both will, maybe it just indicates volitility potential. I think if you look at specific zip codes you might be able to glean some good info but looking at a county of 3 million and waiting for converegence in the entire market might be asking too much. I’ll bet that there are micro market or zip codes where there is parity. However I’m still unconvinced that means anything or can indicate the future. Someone smarter than me is going to have to look at it. Perhaps one of the resident geniuses can see if that has any past indication of price volatility. Lot’s of things in real estate should make sense but don’t.
January 22, 2011 at 5:13 PM #657747Participanthttp://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92592
as you can see from this chart from my hood, average sold can exceed average list. You can also click on a few boxes at the top of the chart and also see number listed, number sold and percentage of sold to list.
But I don’t agree with the logic, that the point when sale to list are in balance that it indicates a time to buy. What it does say about a market is that sellers are realistic and are listing at prices that people will pay, that they stopped waiting for the other side to blink.
Not sure if this has anything to do with anything, but looking just below your graph at some of the data, the SD median price per sq ft is down 3.8% YOY, while my hood is up 6.1% YOY, also the days on market are longer. So maybe you are onto something, maybe when there is a disparity between list and sales prices, it indicates it is not healthy yet, that one side is going to have move their price or both will, maybe it just indicates volitility potential. I think if you look at specific zip codes you might be able to glean some good info but looking at a county of 3 million and waiting for converegence in the entire market might be asking too much. I’ll bet that there are micro market or zip codes where there is parity. However I’m still unconvinced that means anything or can indicate the future. Someone smarter than me is going to have to look at it. Perhaps one of the resident geniuses can see if that has any past indication of price volatility. Lot’s of things in real estate should make sense but don’t.
January 22, 2011 at 5:13 PM #657884Participanthttp://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92592
as you can see from this chart from my hood, average sold can exceed average list. You can also click on a few boxes at the top of the chart and also see number listed, number sold and percentage of sold to list.
But I don’t agree with the logic, that the point when sale to list are in balance that it indicates a time to buy. What it does say about a market is that sellers are realistic and are listing at prices that people will pay, that they stopped waiting for the other side to blink.
Not sure if this has anything to do with anything, but looking just below your graph at some of the data, the SD median price per sq ft is down 3.8% YOY, while my hood is up 6.1% YOY, also the days on market are longer. So maybe you are onto something, maybe when there is a disparity between list and sales prices, it indicates it is not healthy yet, that one side is going to have move their price or both will, maybe it just indicates volitility potential. I think if you look at specific zip codes you might be able to glean some good info but looking at a county of 3 million and waiting for converegence in the entire market might be asking too much. I’ll bet that there are micro market or zip codes where there is parity. However I’m still unconvinced that means anything or can indicate the future. Someone smarter than me is going to have to look at it. Perhaps one of the resident geniuses can see if that has any past indication of price volatility. Lot’s of things in real estate should make sense but don’t.
January 22, 2011 at 5:13 PM #658214Participanthttp://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92592
as you can see from this chart from my hood, average sold can exceed average list. You can also click on a few boxes at the top of the chart and also see number listed, number sold and percentage of sold to list.
But I don’t agree with the logic, that the point when sale to list are in balance that it indicates a time to buy. What it does say about a market is that sellers are realistic and are listing at prices that people will pay, that they stopped waiting for the other side to blink.
Not sure if this has anything to do with anything, but looking just below your graph at some of the data, the SD median price per sq ft is down 3.8% YOY, while my hood is up 6.1% YOY, also the days on market are longer. So maybe you are onto something, maybe when there is a disparity between list and sales prices, it indicates it is not healthy yet, that one side is going to have move their price or both will, maybe it just indicates volitility potential. I think if you look at specific zip codes you might be able to glean some good info but looking at a county of 3 million and waiting for converegence in the entire market might be asking too much. I’ll bet that there are micro market or zip codes where there is parity. However I’m still unconvinced that means anything or can indicate the future. Someone smarter than me is going to have to look at it. Perhaps one of the resident geniuses can see if that has any past indication of price volatility. Lot’s of things in real estate should make sense but don’t.
January 22, 2011 at 6:01 PM #657096an
ParticipantEvery sub market is different. Lets say you’re interested in 92126 or 92111, sold price has been above list price since 2009: http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92126 & http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92111, while San Diego wide number and some other zipcode seems very different.
92129 list price is inline w/ sold price: http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92129
January 22, 2011 at 6:01 PM #657157ParticipantEvery sub market is different. Lets say you’re interested in 92126 or 92111, sold price has been above list price since 2009: http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92126 & http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92111, while San Diego wide number and some other zipcode seems very different.
92129 list price is inline w/ sold price: http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92129
January 22, 2011 at 6:01 PM #657756ParticipantEvery sub market is different. Lets say you’re interested in 92126 or 92111, sold price has been above list price since 2009: http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92126 & http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92111, while San Diego wide number and some other zipcode seems very different.
92129 list price is inline w/ sold price: http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92129
January 22, 2011 at 6:01 PM #657894ParticipantEvery sub market is different. Lets say you’re interested in 92126 or 92111, sold price has been above list price since 2009: http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92126 & http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92111, while San Diego wide number and some other zipcode seems very different.
92129 list price is inline w/ sold price: http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92129
January 22, 2011 at 6:01 PM #658224ParticipantEvery sub market is different. Lets say you’re interested in 92126 or 92111, sold price has been above list price since 2009: http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92126 & http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92111, while San Diego wide number and some other zipcode seems very different.
92129 list price is inline w/ sold price: http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92129
January 22, 2011 at 7:41 PM #657101Jazzman
ParticipantThe first list to sales graph you see on Redfin is a rough guide. You need to click on it zero in on specifics, and then you’ll be really confused. Best to look at list to sales, and original list price. Then add in DOM (days on market), number of price reductions, and you start to build a picture of how distressed a property is. In a perfect world the list to sales ratio could be your guide to making an offer.
January 22, 2011 at 7:41 PM #657162ParticipantThe first list to sales graph you see on Redfin is a rough guide. You need to click on it zero in on specifics, and then you’ll be really confused. Best to look at list to sales, and original list price. Then add in DOM (days on market), number of price reductions, and you start to build a picture of how distressed a property is. In a perfect world the list to sales ratio could be your guide to making an offer.
January 22, 2011 at 7:41 PM #657761ParticipantThe first list to sales graph you see on Redfin is a rough guide. You need to click on it zero in on specifics, and then you’ll be really confused. Best to look at list to sales, and original list price. Then add in DOM (days on market), number of price reductions, and you start to build a picture of how distressed a property is. In a perfect world the list to sales ratio could be your guide to making an offer.
January 22, 2011 at 7:41 PM #657899ParticipantThe first list to sales graph you see on Redfin is a rough guide. You need to click on it zero in on specifics, and then you’ll be really confused. Best to look at list to sales, and original list price. Then add in DOM (days on market), number of price reductions, and you start to build a picture of how distressed a property is. In a perfect world the list to sales ratio could be your guide to making an offer.
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