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temeculaguy
ParticipantLONG OVERDUE UPDATE
The under 400k 3 car numbers broke 100 in march but have been on a steady decline since then, hitting 70 a few weeks ago. It seems the bounce may be nearing an end “keep your hands and arms inside the car until your ride comes to a complete stop.”
Monday it crested 80 again, Tuesday at 84, Today at 86. There is a notable difference in quality this week and they aren’t all priced at the top end of the scale, most are about 350k, so we may be entering the next phase we have all been hoping for, rates may be helping it along as well.
2900 sq ft on the golf course in a gated will set you back 329k
This mcmansion in wolf creek’s largest tract, redwood, is listed at 399k and 50-100 lower than the builders standing inventory, welcome back f-u pricing from the banks and thank you, I missed you.
And this little gem was the topic of it’s own thread a few weeks ago, the three story winchester homes with two sets of stairs up two flights each and not connecting will give someone buns of steel for 274k, and the square feet is a typo, it is actually 4115 sq ft. If it didn’t cost a grand a month to air condition it, have an apartment sized kitchen and a goofy driveway that you can only get one car into the 3 car garage without lube, I’d probably buy that one. 20% down (60k) and fixed at 6.5 it is $1422 P&I, you literally cannot rent a townhouse adjacent to that tract for that. That exact house cannot be rented for under 2k, I’ve never looked at them specifically but have seen 2200 and 2500 just casually perusing ads, it’s zero down P&I is $1738, if these become more prevalent I’m going to make matt mad and start using words like “bottom” and “overcorrection.”
Speaking of typos, since half the mls is bank repos, their realtors or reo divisions are so overworked they are just barely filling out the mls, especially when going for “sell it in a week” pricing. It is totally throwing of the data because they don’t show up in searches for parameters like three car garages. My search always missed a few but it’s becoming more prevalent and throwing off the stats.
Lennar in wolf creek just listed their standing inventory plan 1 at 330k with all options, a week ago the cheapest was in the 400’s and about a month or two ago on a visit there I schooled the salesperson on how overpriced they were in the 400’s even though most options were included. She guaranteed prices wouldn’t go down but refused to put it in writing, I laughed, reminded her that in the two years I have been casually visiting the models, every visit the sales staff is entirely new so her word meant nothing because she wouldn’t work there by the time I moved in (she didn’t think that was as funny as I did). Low and behold, a 100k gets peeled off this week, I can’t wait to go back and say hello, I hope she lasts until I get a day off.
ParticipantLONG OVERDUE UPDATE
The under 400k 3 car numbers broke 100 in march but have been on a steady decline since then, hitting 70 a few weeks ago. It seems the bounce may be nearing an end “keep your hands and arms inside the car until your ride comes to a complete stop.”
Monday it crested 80 again, Tuesday at 84, Today at 86. There is a notable difference in quality this week and they aren’t all priced at the top end of the scale, most are about 350k, so we may be entering the next phase we have all been hoping for, rates may be helping it along as well.
2900 sq ft on the golf course in a gated will set you back 329k
This mcmansion in wolf creek’s largest tract, redwood, is listed at 399k and 50-100 lower than the builders standing inventory, welcome back f-u pricing from the banks and thank you, I missed you.
And this little gem was the topic of it’s own thread a few weeks ago, the three story winchester homes with two sets of stairs up two flights each and not connecting will give someone buns of steel for 274k, and the square feet is a typo, it is actually 4115 sq ft. If it didn’t cost a grand a month to air condition it, have an apartment sized kitchen and a goofy driveway that you can only get one car into the 3 car garage without lube, I’d probably buy that one. 20% down (60k) and fixed at 6.5 it is $1422 P&I, you literally cannot rent a townhouse adjacent to that tract for that. That exact house cannot be rented for under 2k, I’ve never looked at them specifically but have seen 2200 and 2500 just casually perusing ads, it’s zero down P&I is $1738, if these become more prevalent I’m going to make matt mad and start using words like “bottom” and “overcorrection.”
Speaking of typos, since half the mls is bank repos, their realtors or reo divisions are so overworked they are just barely filling out the mls, especially when going for “sell it in a week” pricing. It is totally throwing of the data because they don’t show up in searches for parameters like three car garages. My search always missed a few but it’s becoming more prevalent and throwing off the stats.
Lennar in wolf creek just listed their standing inventory plan 1 at 330k with all options, a week ago the cheapest was in the 400’s and about a month or two ago on a visit there I schooled the salesperson on how overpriced they were in the 400’s even though most options were included. She guaranteed prices wouldn’t go down but refused to put it in writing, I laughed, reminded her that in the two years I have been casually visiting the models, every visit the sales staff is entirely new so her word meant nothing because she wouldn’t work there by the time I moved in (she didn’t think that was as funny as I did). Low and behold, a 100k gets peeled off this week, I can’t wait to go back and say hello, I hope she lasts until I get a day off.
ParticipantLONG OVERDUE UPDATE
The under 400k 3 car numbers broke 100 in march but have been on a steady decline since then, hitting 70 a few weeks ago. It seems the bounce may be nearing an end “keep your hands and arms inside the car until your ride comes to a complete stop.”
Monday it crested 80 again, Tuesday at 84, Today at 86. There is a notable difference in quality this week and they aren’t all priced at the top end of the scale, most are about 350k, so we may be entering the next phase we have all been hoping for, rates may be helping it along as well.
2900 sq ft on the golf course in a gated will set you back 329k
This mcmansion in wolf creek’s largest tract, redwood, is listed at 399k and 50-100 lower than the builders standing inventory, welcome back f-u pricing from the banks and thank you, I missed you.
And this little gem was the topic of it’s own thread a few weeks ago, the three story winchester homes with two sets of stairs up two flights each and not connecting will give someone buns of steel for 274k, and the square feet is a typo, it is actually 4115 sq ft. If it didn’t cost a grand a month to air condition it, have an apartment sized kitchen and a goofy driveway that you can only get one car into the 3 car garage without lube, I’d probably buy that one. 20% down (60k) and fixed at 6.5 it is $1422 P&I, you literally cannot rent a townhouse adjacent to that tract for that. That exact house cannot be rented for under 2k, I’ve never looked at them specifically but have seen 2200 and 2500 just casually perusing ads, it’s zero down P&I is $1738, if these become more prevalent I’m going to make matt mad and start using words like “bottom” and “overcorrection.”
Speaking of typos, since half the mls is bank repos, their realtors or reo divisions are so overworked they are just barely filling out the mls, especially when going for “sell it in a week” pricing. It is totally throwing of the data because they don’t show up in searches for parameters like three car garages. My search always missed a few but it’s becoming more prevalent and throwing off the stats.
Lennar in wolf creek just listed their standing inventory plan 1 at 330k with all options, a week ago the cheapest was in the 400’s and about a month or two ago on a visit there I schooled the salesperson on how overpriced they were in the 400’s even though most options were included. She guaranteed prices wouldn’t go down but refused to put it in writing, I laughed, reminded her that in the two years I have been casually visiting the models, every visit the sales staff is entirely new so her word meant nothing because she wouldn’t work there by the time I moved in (she didn’t think that was as funny as I did). Low and behold, a 100k gets peeled off this week, I can’t wait to go back and say hello, I hope she lasts until I get a day off.
ParticipantForget lawyers, have the preacher make arrangements to send the landlord to hell, maybe send St. Peter an e-mail, that should make it even.
ParticipantForget lawyers, have the preacher make arrangements to send the landlord to hell, maybe send St. Peter an e-mail, that should make it even.
ParticipantForget lawyers, have the preacher make arrangements to send the landlord to hell, maybe send St. Peter an e-mail, that should make it even.
ParticipantForget lawyers, have the preacher make arrangements to send the landlord to hell, maybe send St. Peter an e-mail, that should make it even.
ParticipantForget lawyers, have the preacher make arrangements to send the landlord to hell, maybe send St. Peter an e-mail, that should make it even.
ParticipantYou are also going to have to break Morgan Valley out of the Morgan hill numbers in any comparison because they primarily sit on 1/3 to 1/2 acre lots, not fair to compare them to 7000 sq ft lots, also the morgan hill ones in Ventana are also on huge lots and have R.V. garages, I think they are over a half acre and are so upscale inside it’s not fair to compare them in ppsf, you might have to put them in the morgan valley group. The problem with the valley and the ventana homes is they are more like customs, the backyards can be worth more than the morgan tract homes so that is another x factor. Here is an example on a ventana listed at over 300 per sq ft. It is way overpriced, maybe not quite double, but look at the pictures, you cant compare it to the second link just because of the lot and the level of improvements.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44664-Frogs-Leap-St-92592/home/6644068
and this repo in a more tract like setting at 120 a square
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45197-Broman-St-92592/home/6570845
But I love the effort and the data, break it into two groups, maybe under and over 1/3 acre lots or into tracts.
ParticipantYou are also going to have to break Morgan Valley out of the Morgan hill numbers in any comparison because they primarily sit on 1/3 to 1/2 acre lots, not fair to compare them to 7000 sq ft lots, also the morgan hill ones in Ventana are also on huge lots and have R.V. garages, I think they are over a half acre and are so upscale inside it’s not fair to compare them in ppsf, you might have to put them in the morgan valley group. The problem with the valley and the ventana homes is they are more like customs, the backyards can be worth more than the morgan tract homes so that is another x factor. Here is an example on a ventana listed at over 300 per sq ft. It is way overpriced, maybe not quite double, but look at the pictures, you cant compare it to the second link just because of the lot and the level of improvements.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44664-Frogs-Leap-St-92592/home/6644068
and this repo in a more tract like setting at 120 a square
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45197-Broman-St-92592/home/6570845
But I love the effort and the data, break it into two groups, maybe under and over 1/3 acre lots or into tracts.
ParticipantYou are also going to have to break Morgan Valley out of the Morgan hill numbers in any comparison because they primarily sit on 1/3 to 1/2 acre lots, not fair to compare them to 7000 sq ft lots, also the morgan hill ones in Ventana are also on huge lots and have R.V. garages, I think they are over a half acre and are so upscale inside it’s not fair to compare them in ppsf, you might have to put them in the morgan valley group. The problem with the valley and the ventana homes is they are more like customs, the backyards can be worth more than the morgan tract homes so that is another x factor. Here is an example on a ventana listed at over 300 per sq ft. It is way overpriced, maybe not quite double, but look at the pictures, you cant compare it to the second link just because of the lot and the level of improvements.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44664-Frogs-Leap-St-92592/home/6644068
and this repo in a more tract like setting at 120 a square
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45197-Broman-St-92592/home/6570845
But I love the effort and the data, break it into two groups, maybe under and over 1/3 acre lots or into tracts.
ParticipantYou are also going to have to break Morgan Valley out of the Morgan hill numbers in any comparison because they primarily sit on 1/3 to 1/2 acre lots, not fair to compare them to 7000 sq ft lots, also the morgan hill ones in Ventana are also on huge lots and have R.V. garages, I think they are over a half acre and are so upscale inside it’s not fair to compare them in ppsf, you might have to put them in the morgan valley group. The problem with the valley and the ventana homes is they are more like customs, the backyards can be worth more than the morgan tract homes so that is another x factor. Here is an example on a ventana listed at over 300 per sq ft. It is way overpriced, maybe not quite double, but look at the pictures, you cant compare it to the second link just because of the lot and the level of improvements.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44664-Frogs-Leap-St-92592/home/6644068
and this repo in a more tract like setting at 120 a square
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45197-Broman-St-92592/home/6570845
But I love the effort and the data, break it into two groups, maybe under and over 1/3 acre lots or into tracts.
ParticipantYou are also going to have to break Morgan Valley out of the Morgan hill numbers in any comparison because they primarily sit on 1/3 to 1/2 acre lots, not fair to compare them to 7000 sq ft lots, also the morgan hill ones in Ventana are also on huge lots and have R.V. garages, I think they are over a half acre and are so upscale inside it’s not fair to compare them in ppsf, you might have to put them in the morgan valley group. The problem with the valley and the ventana homes is they are more like customs, the backyards can be worth more than the morgan tract homes so that is another x factor. Here is an example on a ventana listed at over 300 per sq ft. It is way overpriced, maybe not quite double, but look at the pictures, you cant compare it to the second link just because of the lot and the level of improvements.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44664-Frogs-Leap-St-92592/home/6644068
and this repo in a more tract like setting at 120 a square
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45197-Broman-St-92592/home/6570845
But I love the effort and the data, break it into two groups, maybe under and over 1/3 acre lots or into tracts.
ParticipantFive things at play
1. Law of diminishing returns
2. land cost being equal
3. demographics
4. building costs
5. Current energy costs and ucertain futureSmaller homes on the same size lot of larger homes cost more per square foot to build because the land cost is equal. Older people, single people, people with disabilities, injuries, etc. need or want smaller homes or single stories. Single stories are more efficient and the sq ft of the stairs is wasted sq ft.
A two story 3000 sq ft and a one story 2000 sq ft (both found in morgan) both have the same roof, foudation, concrete, kitchen, plumbing, driveway, etc. The extra 1000 sq ft is often “dry” space and the costs of the extra lumber and stucco are less than the initial costs. ppsf has always increased as homes get smaller but with energy costs on everyone’s minds these days, I think they will be hit even harder. Regarding morgan in particular, 2000 or 2100 sq ft is the smallest they have, that is fine for many people, fewer people need or want 4000 sq ft so the price decreases per sq after 2000 based on supply and demand, sellers don’t set the price, the buyers do. Fewer people want the big one today with energy and carrying costs increasing, just like fewer people want Ford Excursions.
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