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Ren.
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June 18, 2008 at 10:48 PM #225256June 18, 2008 at 10:48 PM #225272
temeculaguy
ParticipantLONG OVERDUE UPDATE
The under 400k 3 car numbers broke 100 in march but have been on a steady decline since then, hitting 70 a few weeks ago. It seems the bounce may be nearing an end “keep your hands and arms inside the car until your ride comes to a complete stop.”
Monday it crested 80 again, Tuesday at 84, Today at 86. There is a notable difference in quality this week and they aren’t all priced at the top end of the scale, most are about 350k, so we may be entering the next phase we have all been hoping for, rates may be helping it along as well.
2900 sq ft on the golf course in a gated will set you back 329k
This mcmansion in wolf creek’s largest tract, redwood, is listed at 399k and 50-100 lower than the builders standing inventory, welcome back f-u pricing from the banks and thank you, I missed you.
And this little gem was the topic of it’s own thread a few weeks ago, the three story winchester homes with two sets of stairs up two flights each and not connecting will give someone buns of steel for 274k, and the square feet is a typo, it is actually 4115 sq ft. If it didn’t cost a grand a month to air condition it, have an apartment sized kitchen and a goofy driveway that you can only get one car into the 3 car garage without lube, I’d probably buy that one. 20% down (60k) and fixed at 6.5 it is $1422 P&I, you literally cannot rent a townhouse adjacent to that tract for that. That exact house cannot be rented for under 2k, I’ve never looked at them specifically but have seen 2200 and 2500 just casually perusing ads, it’s zero down P&I is $1738, if these become more prevalent I’m going to make matt mad and start using words like “bottom” and “overcorrection.”
Speaking of typos, since half the mls is bank repos, their realtors or reo divisions are so overworked they are just barely filling out the mls, especially when going for “sell it in a week” pricing. It is totally throwing of the data because they don’t show up in searches for parameters like three car garages. My search always missed a few but it’s becoming more prevalent and throwing off the stats.
Lennar in wolf creek just listed their standing inventory plan 1 at 330k with all options, a week ago the cheapest was in the 400’s and about a month or two ago on a visit there I schooled the salesperson on how overpriced they were in the 400’s even though most options were included. She guaranteed prices wouldn’t go down but refused to put it in writing, I laughed, reminded her that in the two years I have been casually visiting the models, every visit the sales staff is entirely new so her word meant nothing because she wouldn’t work there by the time I moved in (she didn’t think that was as funny as I did). Low and behold, a 100k gets peeled off this week, I can’t wait to go back and say hello, I hope she lasts until I get a day off.
June 18, 2008 at 11:00 PM #225108ParticipantOther zips
92591, North temecula-28
92562, Murrieta-95
92563, Murrieta-169I don’t know much about Murrieta but 92563 is insane, what you can get for around 300k is amazing, no wonder we don’t hear from the Murrieta shoppers on the boards, they bought already.
June 18, 2008 at 11:00 PM #225214ParticipantOther zips
92591, North temecula-28
92562, Murrieta-95
92563, Murrieta-169I don’t know much about Murrieta but 92563 is insane, what you can get for around 300k is amazing, no wonder we don’t hear from the Murrieta shoppers on the boards, they bought already.
June 18, 2008 at 11:00 PM #225229ParticipantOther zips
92591, North temecula-28
92562, Murrieta-95
92563, Murrieta-169I don’t know much about Murrieta but 92563 is insane, what you can get for around 300k is amazing, no wonder we don’t hear from the Murrieta shoppers on the boards, they bought already.
June 18, 2008 at 11:00 PM #225261ParticipantOther zips
92591, North temecula-28
92562, Murrieta-95
92563, Murrieta-169I don’t know much about Murrieta but 92563 is insane, what you can get for around 300k is amazing, no wonder we don’t hear from the Murrieta shoppers on the boards, they bought already.
June 18, 2008 at 11:00 PM #225277ParticipantOther zips
92591, North temecula-28
92562, Murrieta-95
92563, Murrieta-169I don’t know much about Murrieta but 92563 is insane, what you can get for around 300k is amazing, no wonder we don’t hear from the Murrieta shoppers on the boards, they bought already.
June 18, 2008 at 11:48 PM #225158cashflow
Participantokay TG,
Those Murrieta ones are unbelievable, but there are only certain areas of Murrieta that I would look at.At this point with the air gushing out of the bubble, I think I’m getting greedy…now I want a house even cheaper than this!!!
Wasn’t it you that didn’t want to buy due to the rise in NOD’s recently around there…what’s that looking like now?
Maybe the banks know something, which is why such aggressive pricing now?? Just a thought…is it going to get that much worse so better sell now….
What’s your thoughts?!?June 18, 2008 at 11:48 PM #225265Participantokay TG,
Those Murrieta ones are unbelievable, but there are only certain areas of Murrieta that I would look at.At this point with the air gushing out of the bubble, I think I’m getting greedy…now I want a house even cheaper than this!!!
Wasn’t it you that didn’t want to buy due to the rise in NOD’s recently around there…what’s that looking like now?
Maybe the banks know something, which is why such aggressive pricing now?? Just a thought…is it going to get that much worse so better sell now….
What’s your thoughts?!?June 18, 2008 at 11:48 PM #225279Participantokay TG,
Those Murrieta ones are unbelievable, but there are only certain areas of Murrieta that I would look at.At this point with the air gushing out of the bubble, I think I’m getting greedy…now I want a house even cheaper than this!!!
Wasn’t it you that didn’t want to buy due to the rise in NOD’s recently around there…what’s that looking like now?
Maybe the banks know something, which is why such aggressive pricing now?? Just a thought…is it going to get that much worse so better sell now….
What’s your thoughts?!?June 18, 2008 at 11:48 PM #225309Participantokay TG,
Those Murrieta ones are unbelievable, but there are only certain areas of Murrieta that I would look at.At this point with the air gushing out of the bubble, I think I’m getting greedy…now I want a house even cheaper than this!!!
Wasn’t it you that didn’t want to buy due to the rise in NOD’s recently around there…what’s that looking like now?
Maybe the banks know something, which is why such aggressive pricing now?? Just a thought…is it going to get that much worse so better sell now….
What’s your thoughts?!?June 18, 2008 at 11:48 PM #225325Participantokay TG,
Those Murrieta ones are unbelievable, but there are only certain areas of Murrieta that I would look at.At this point with the air gushing out of the bubble, I think I’m getting greedy…now I want a house even cheaper than this!!!
Wasn’t it you that didn’t want to buy due to the rise in NOD’s recently around there…what’s that looking like now?
Maybe the banks know something, which is why such aggressive pricing now?? Just a thought…is it going to get that much worse so better sell now….
What’s your thoughts?!?June 19, 2008 at 8:01 AM #225248ParticipantI can’t buy in Murrieta for a number of reason, most importantly because I would need a new screen name. I just look at it because activity and prices are all related in the valley. The rise is nod’s is a huge concern, as is the percentage converting to nots. Nots are harder to track because they are short lived but of the two largest towns up here the nods are at 1581 for murrieta and 1123 for temecula, that is a lot of inventory that will be hitting in the coming months, we average 25-50 trustee sales per week per zip in the four major zips, until this week, sales were keeping pace and actually reducing inventory but the nod/nots are not seasonally adjusted so as the selling season ends the rate inventory is added will not slow down but will increase because of the nod/not jumps a few months back, creating a perfect storm. The nod/not rate is what keeps me at bay, it is the best predictor of near term trends as those numbers fall off, so will I. The best analogy is traffic on the freeway at night. You are stuck in bumper to bumper traffic and you can see the road a few miles a head but all you see is a wall of break lights, no sense hitting the gas now. When you start to see the traffic flowing a few miles ahead, it’s time time. So I watch the nods/nots so I am not suprised one way or another. I have to credit BUGS, long ago he is the one that said this was a better guage of the future as opposed to restets, Y o Y sales, etc. Had my eye on it ever since.
June 19, 2008 at 8:01 AM #225354ParticipantI can’t buy in Murrieta for a number of reason, most importantly because I would need a new screen name. I just look at it because activity and prices are all related in the valley. The rise is nod’s is a huge concern, as is the percentage converting to nots. Nots are harder to track because they are short lived but of the two largest towns up here the nods are at 1581 for murrieta and 1123 for temecula, that is a lot of inventory that will be hitting in the coming months, we average 25-50 trustee sales per week per zip in the four major zips, until this week, sales were keeping pace and actually reducing inventory but the nod/nots are not seasonally adjusted so as the selling season ends the rate inventory is added will not slow down but will increase because of the nod/not jumps a few months back, creating a perfect storm. The nod/not rate is what keeps me at bay, it is the best predictor of near term trends as those numbers fall off, so will I. The best analogy is traffic on the freeway at night. You are stuck in bumper to bumper traffic and you can see the road a few miles a head but all you see is a wall of break lights, no sense hitting the gas now. When you start to see the traffic flowing a few miles ahead, it’s time time. So I watch the nods/nots so I am not suprised one way or another. I have to credit BUGS, long ago he is the one that said this was a better guage of the future as opposed to restets, Y o Y sales, etc. Had my eye on it ever since.
June 19, 2008 at 8:01 AM #225372ParticipantI can’t buy in Murrieta for a number of reason, most importantly because I would need a new screen name. I just look at it because activity and prices are all related in the valley. The rise is nod’s is a huge concern, as is the percentage converting to nots. Nots are harder to track because they are short lived but of the two largest towns up here the nods are at 1581 for murrieta and 1123 for temecula, that is a lot of inventory that will be hitting in the coming months, we average 25-50 trustee sales per week per zip in the four major zips, until this week, sales were keeping pace and actually reducing inventory but the nod/nots are not seasonally adjusted so as the selling season ends the rate inventory is added will not slow down but will increase because of the nod/not jumps a few months back, creating a perfect storm. The nod/not rate is what keeps me at bay, it is the best predictor of near term trends as those numbers fall off, so will I. The best analogy is traffic on the freeway at night. You are stuck in bumper to bumper traffic and you can see the road a few miles a head but all you see is a wall of break lights, no sense hitting the gas now. When you start to see the traffic flowing a few miles ahead, it’s time time. So I watch the nods/nots so I am not suprised one way or another. I have to credit BUGS, long ago he is the one that said this was a better guage of the future as opposed to restets, Y o Y sales, etc. Had my eye on it ever since.
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