The Three Car Garage Monitor

[temeculaguy]

I can’t buy in Murrieta for a number of reason, most importantly because I would need a new screen name. I just look at it because activity and prices are all related in the valley. The rise is nod’s is a huge concern, as is the percentage converting to nots. Nots are harder to track because they are short lived but of the two largest towns up here the nods are at 1581 for murrieta and 1123 for temecula, that is a lot of inventory that will be hitting in the coming months, we average 25-50 trustee sales per week per zip in the four major zips, until this week, sales were keeping pace and actually reducing inventory but the nod/nots are not seasonally adjusted so as the selling season ends the rate inventory is added will not slow down but will increase because of the nod/not jumps a few months back, creating a perfect storm. The nod/not rate is what keeps me at bay, it is the best predictor of near term trends as those numbers fall off, so will I. The best analogy is traffic on the freeway at night. You are stuck in bumper to bumper traffic and you can see the road a few miles a head but all you see is a wall of break lights, no sense hitting the gas now. When you start to see the traffic flowing a few miles ahead, it’s time time. So I watch the nods/nots so I am not suprised one way or another. I have to credit BUGS, long ago he is the one that said this was a better guage of the future as opposed to restets, Y o Y sales, etc. Had my eye on it ever since.

[temeculaguy]

I can’t buy in Murrieta for a number of reason, most importantly because I would need a new screen name. I just look at it because activity and prices are all related in the valley. The rise is nod’s is a huge concern, as is the percentage converting to nots. Nots are harder to track because they are short lived but of the two largest towns up here the nods are at 1581 for murrieta and 1123 for temecula, that is a lot of inventory that will be hitting in the coming months, we average 25-50 trustee sales per week per zip in the four major zips, until this week, sales were keeping pace and actually reducing inventory but the nod/nots are not seasonally adjusted so as the selling season ends the rate inventory is added will not slow down but will increase because of the nod/not jumps a few months back, creating a perfect storm. The nod/not rate is what keeps me at bay, it is the best predictor of near term trends as those numbers fall off, so will I. The best analogy is traffic on the freeway at night. You are stuck in bumper to bumper traffic and you can see the road a few miles a head but all you see is a wall of break lights, no sense hitting the gas now. When you start to see the traffic flowing a few miles ahead, it’s time time. So I watch the nods/nots so I am not suprised one way or another. I have to credit BUGS, long ago he is the one that said this was a better guage of the future as opposed to restets, Y o Y sales, etc. Had my eye on it ever since.

[pizzaman]

Speaking of Murrieta is there a thread for a four car garage under $400K?. Check out this gem, 4666 sq ft for $359k thats a cool $77psf. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Murrieta/26517-Winterset-Ct-92563/home/6357029
I wonder how long it will be before people start turning these things into multi-family homes?

[pizzaman]

Speaking of Murrieta is there a thread for a four car garage under $400K?. Check out this gem, 4666 sq ft for $359k thats a cool $77psf. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Murrieta/26517-Winterset-Ct-92563/home/6357029
I wonder how long it will be before people start turning these things into multi-family homes?

[pizzaman]

Speaking of Murrieta is there a thread for a four car garage under $400K?. Check out this gem, 4666 sq ft for $359k thats a cool $77psf. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Murrieta/26517-Winterset-Ct-92563/home/6357029
I wonder how long it will be before people start turning these things into multi-family homes?

[pizzaman]

Speaking of Murrieta is there a thread for a four car garage under $400K?. Check out this gem, 4666 sq ft for $359k thats a cool $77psf. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Murrieta/26517-Winterset-Ct-92563/home/6357029
I wonder how long it will be before people start turning these things into multi-family homes?

[pizzaman]

Speaking of Murrieta is there a thread for a four car garage under $400K?. Check out this gem, 4666 sq ft for $359k thats a cool $77psf. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Murrieta/26517-Winterset-Ct-92563/home/6357029
I wonder how long it will be before people start turning these things into multi-family homes?

[4plexowner]

pizzaman – I saw an article this week suggesting that the future of McMansions in outlying areas likely includes multiple low income families living under the same McRoof – the article gave examples of low income people being pushed out of Sacramento (I think) and ending up living way outside of town with multiple people in a large house – decided against posting the link because it seemed too depressing for anyone living in a McMansion in an outlying area

[4plexowner]

pizzaman – I saw an article this week suggesting that the future of McMansions in outlying areas likely includes multiple low income families living under the same McRoof – the article gave examples of low income people being pushed out of Sacramento (I think) and ending up living way outside of town with multiple people in a large house – decided against posting the link because it seemed too depressing for anyone living in a McMansion in an outlying area

[4plexowner]

pizzaman – I saw an article this week suggesting that the future of McMansions in outlying areas likely includes multiple low income families living under the same McRoof – the article gave examples of low income people being pushed out of Sacramento (I think) and ending up living way outside of town with multiple people in a large house – decided against posting the link because it seemed too depressing for anyone living in a McMansion in an outlying area

[4plexowner]

pizzaman – I saw an article this week suggesting that the future of McMansions in outlying areas likely includes multiple low income families living under the same McRoof – the article gave examples of low income people being pushed out of Sacramento (I think) and ending up living way outside of town with multiple people in a large house – decided against posting the link because it seemed too depressing for anyone living in a McMansion in an outlying area

[4plexowner]

pizzaman – I saw an article this week suggesting that the future of McMansions in outlying areas likely includes multiple low income families living under the same McRoof – the article gave examples of low income people being pushed out of Sacramento (I think) and ending up living way outside of town with multiple people in a large house – decided against posting the link because it seemed too depressing for anyone living in a McMansion in an outlying area

[Ren]

[quote=temeculaguy]
This mcmansion in wolf creek’s largest tract, redwood, is listed at 399k and 50-100 lower than the builders standing inventory, welcome back f-u pricing from the banks and thank you, I missed you.

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=1&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=3&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=0&maxprice=400000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=27122251
[/quote]

I know I’m excited about the “spacios” floor plan, “gormet” kitchen, and “tantum” garage.

You’d think a sales person would realize the importance that one paragraph has.

[Ren]

[quote=temeculaguy]
This mcmansion in wolf creek’s largest tract, redwood, is listed at 399k and 50-100 lower than the builders standing inventory, welcome back f-u pricing from the banks and thank you, I missed you.

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=1&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=3&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=0&maxprice=400000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=27122251
[/quote]

I know I’m excited about the “spacios” floor plan, “gormet” kitchen, and “tantum” garage.

You’d think a sales person would realize the importance that one paragraph has.

[Ren]

[quote=temeculaguy]
This mcmansion in wolf creek’s largest tract, redwood, is listed at 399k and 50-100 lower than the builders standing inventory, welcome back f-u pricing from the banks and thank you, I missed you.

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=1&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=3&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=0&maxprice=400000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=27122251
[/quote]

I know I’m excited about the “spacios” floor plan, “gormet” kitchen, and “tantum” garage.

You’d think a sales person would realize the importance that one paragraph has.

[Author]

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