Morgan Hill and Morgan Valley Stats

[TemekuT]

“In God We Trust. Everyone Else Bring Data”

Here’s an Excel spreadsheet showing all closed escrows (per MRMLS) in Morgan Hill and Morgan Valley since 01/01/08. I thought it would be interesting to show that single level homes and smaller homes command a higher price per square foot.

Help please – how do I get the spreadsheet to copy verbatim to this post? Obviously what you see here is difficult to interpret without uniform column headings and rows. Also, you can’t see whether the price per sq. ft. is for a single level or two level house.

“Morgan Hill
or Valley” Builder Tract Close Date Street Close Price Sq. Ft. “Price Sq. Ft
Single Story” “Price Sq. Ft
Two Story”
Hill K. Hov Olde Orchard 01/04/08 Winter Creek $421,300 3279 $128
Hill K. Hov Olde Orchard 01/11/08 Oakford $489,000 4046 $121
Hill McMillin Blackstone 01/25/08 Lamborn $761,613 3845 $198
Hill McMillin Blackstone 01/25/08 Lamborn $766,780 4327 $177
Hill K. Hov Olde Orchard 01/28/08 Tudal $420,000 3279 $128
Hill McMillin Blackstone 01/31/08 Lamborn $530,266 3836 $138
Hill McMillin Cristal 02/28/08 Mumm $375,000 2248 $167
Hill McMillin Cristal 03/04/08 Rutherford $490,000 2450 $200
Hill Shea Sommerset 03/07/08 Broman $420,000 3273 $128
Hill McMillin Montevina 03/07/08 Pride Mountain $439,000 3335 $132
Hill K. Hov Olde Orchard 03/08/08 Vine Cliff $382,500 3279 $117
Hill K. Hov Olde Orchard 03/11/08 Villa Helena $521,328 3284 $159
Hill McMillin Montevina 03/18/08 Galleron $448,990 2494 $180
Hill K. Hov Olde Orchard 03/18/08 Milat $491,000 3708 $132
Hill K. Hov Olde Orchard 03/24/08 Tudal $435,000 4046 $108
Hill Pacific Scene Ventana 03/27/08 Arietta $810,000 4545 $178
Hill Shea Sommerset 03/28/08 Sattui $400,000 3401 $118
Hill McMillin Ruffino 03/31/08 Pillar Rock $463,000 3311 $140
Valley Pinnacle Vineyards 03/31/08 Laurel Glen $541,000 4200 $129
Valley Pulte Meadows 04/02/08 Anza $693,000 4616 $150
Hill Shea Sommerset 04/02/08 Haywood $415,000 3401 $122
Hill McMillin Cristal 04/04/08 Star Hill $410,000 3106 $132
Hill McMillin Cristal 04/10/08 Silver Rose $412,000 3106 $133
Hill McMillin Ruffino 04/11/08 Pillar Rock $615,319 4174 $147
Hill McMillin Montevina 04/15/08 Galleron $499,990 2694 $186
Hill Shea Sommerset 04/17/08 Sattui $412,000 3401 $121
Hill K. Hov Olde Orchard 04/18/08 Tudal $397,900 3279 $121
Hill McMillin Cristal 04/23/08 Rutherford $380,000 2786 $136
Valley Pulte Meadows 04/25/08 Starpoint $510,000 4209 $121
Hill McMillin Cristal 05/06/08 Star Hill $339,000 2786 $122
Valley Pulte Meadows 05/09/08 Riverstone $610,000 4616 $132
Hill Shea Sommerset 05/15/08 Sattui $429,000 3273 $131
Hill K. Hov Olde Orchard 05/16/08 Tudal $420,000 3279 $128
Hill McMillin Cristal 05/16/08 Pegase $389,900 3106 $126
Hill K. Hov Olde Orchard 05/22/08 Tudal $385,000 3279 $117
Hill McMillin Cristal 06/02/08 Dolce $358,000 3106 $115
Hill McMillin Ruffino 06/15/08 Cosentino $520,000 4174 $125

[temeculaguy]

Five things at play

1. Law of diminishing returns
2. land cost being equal
3. demographics
4. building costs
5. Current energy costs and ucertain future

Smaller homes on the same size lot of larger homes cost more per square foot to build because the land cost is equal. Older people, single people, people with disabilities, injuries, etc. need or want smaller homes or single stories. Single stories are more efficient and the sq ft of the stairs is wasted sq ft.

A two story 3000 sq ft and a one story 2000 sq ft (both found in morgan) both have the same roof, foudation, concrete, kitchen, plumbing, driveway, etc. The extra 1000 sq ft is often “dry” space and the costs of the extra lumber and stucco are less than the initial costs. ppsf has always increased as homes get smaller but with energy costs on everyone’s minds these days, I think they will be hit even harder. Regarding morgan in particular, 2000 or 2100 sq ft is the smallest they have, that is fine for many people, fewer people need or want 4000 sq ft so the price decreases per sq after 2000 based on supply and demand, sellers don’t set the price, the buyers do. Fewer people want the big one today with energy and carrying costs increasing, just like fewer people want Ford Excursions.

[temeculaguy]

Five things at play

1. Law of diminishing returns
2. land cost being equal
3. demographics
4. building costs
5. Current energy costs and ucertain future

Smaller homes on the same size lot of larger homes cost more per square foot to build because the land cost is equal. Older people, single people, people with disabilities, injuries, etc. need or want smaller homes or single stories. Single stories are more efficient and the sq ft of the stairs is wasted sq ft.

A two story 3000 sq ft and a one story 2000 sq ft (both found in morgan) both have the same roof, foudation, concrete, kitchen, plumbing, driveway, etc. The extra 1000 sq ft is often “dry” space and the costs of the extra lumber and stucco are less than the initial costs. ppsf has always increased as homes get smaller but with energy costs on everyone’s minds these days, I think they will be hit even harder. Regarding morgan in particular, 2000 or 2100 sq ft is the smallest they have, that is fine for many people, fewer people need or want 4000 sq ft so the price decreases per sq after 2000 based on supply and demand, sellers don’t set the price, the buyers do. Fewer people want the big one today with energy and carrying costs increasing, just like fewer people want Ford Excursions.

[temeculaguy]

Five things at play

1. Law of diminishing returns
2. land cost being equal
3. demographics
4. building costs
5. Current energy costs and ucertain future

Smaller homes on the same size lot of larger homes cost more per square foot to build because the land cost is equal. Older people, single people, people with disabilities, injuries, etc. need or want smaller homes or single stories. Single stories are more efficient and the sq ft of the stairs is wasted sq ft.

A two story 3000 sq ft and a one story 2000 sq ft (both found in morgan) both have the same roof, foudation, concrete, kitchen, plumbing, driveway, etc. The extra 1000 sq ft is often “dry” space and the costs of the extra lumber and stucco are less than the initial costs. ppsf has always increased as homes get smaller but with energy costs on everyone’s minds these days, I think they will be hit even harder. Regarding morgan in particular, 2000 or 2100 sq ft is the smallest they have, that is fine for many people, fewer people need or want 4000 sq ft so the price decreases per sq after 2000 based on supply and demand, sellers don’t set the price, the buyers do. Fewer people want the big one today with energy and carrying costs increasing, just like fewer people want Ford Excursions.

[temeculaguy]

Five things at play

1. Law of diminishing returns
2. land cost being equal
3. demographics
4. building costs
5. Current energy costs and ucertain future

Smaller homes on the same size lot of larger homes cost more per square foot to build because the land cost is equal. Older people, single people, people with disabilities, injuries, etc. need or want smaller homes or single stories. Single stories are more efficient and the sq ft of the stairs is wasted sq ft.

A two story 3000 sq ft and a one story 2000 sq ft (both found in morgan) both have the same roof, foudation, concrete, kitchen, plumbing, driveway, etc. The extra 1000 sq ft is often “dry” space and the costs of the extra lumber and stucco are less than the initial costs. ppsf has always increased as homes get smaller but with energy costs on everyone’s minds these days, I think they will be hit even harder. Regarding morgan in particular, 2000 or 2100 sq ft is the smallest they have, that is fine for many people, fewer people need or want 4000 sq ft so the price decreases per sq after 2000 based on supply and demand, sellers don’t set the price, the buyers do. Fewer people want the big one today with energy and carrying costs increasing, just like fewer people want Ford Excursions.

[temeculaguy]

Five things at play

1. Law of diminishing returns
2. land cost being equal
3. demographics
4. building costs
5. Current energy costs and ucertain future

Smaller homes on the same size lot of larger homes cost more per square foot to build because the land cost is equal. Older people, single people, people with disabilities, injuries, etc. need or want smaller homes or single stories. Single stories are more efficient and the sq ft of the stairs is wasted sq ft.

A two story 3000 sq ft and a one story 2000 sq ft (both found in morgan) both have the same roof, foudation, concrete, kitchen, plumbing, driveway, etc. The extra 1000 sq ft is often “dry” space and the costs of the extra lumber and stucco are less than the initial costs. ppsf has always increased as homes get smaller but with energy costs on everyone’s minds these days, I think they will be hit even harder. Regarding morgan in particular, 2000 or 2100 sq ft is the smallest they have, that is fine for many people, fewer people need or want 4000 sq ft so the price decreases per sq after 2000 based on supply and demand, sellers don’t set the price, the buyers do. Fewer people want the big one today with energy and carrying costs increasing, just like fewer people want Ford Excursions.

[TemekuT]

I’m there with you TG – In my past life I did pricing for a builder. This is just educational for others.

For anyone that wants a great in-depth but easily understandable explanation of land cost, residual value, home pricing etc. go to the Irvine Housing Blogsite. He (Irvine Renter) has a couple of great posts on the subject.

BTW, how do I get the spreadsheet to look like a spreadsheet here?

[TemekuT]

I’m there with you TG – In my past life I did pricing for a builder. This is just educational for others.

For anyone that wants a great in-depth but easily understandable explanation of land cost, residual value, home pricing etc. go to the Irvine Housing Blogsite. He (Irvine Renter) has a couple of great posts on the subject.

BTW, how do I get the spreadsheet to look like a spreadsheet here?

[TemekuT]

I’m there with you TG – In my past life I did pricing for a builder. This is just educational for others.

For anyone that wants a great in-depth but easily understandable explanation of land cost, residual value, home pricing etc. go to the Irvine Housing Blogsite. He (Irvine Renter) has a couple of great posts on the subject.

BTW, how do I get the spreadsheet to look like a spreadsheet here?

[TemekuT]

I’m there with you TG – In my past life I did pricing for a builder. This is just educational for others.

For anyone that wants a great in-depth but easily understandable explanation of land cost, residual value, home pricing etc. go to the Irvine Housing Blogsite. He (Irvine Renter) has a couple of great posts on the subject.

BTW, how do I get the spreadsheet to look like a spreadsheet here?

[TemekuT]

I’m there with you TG – In my past life I did pricing for a builder. This is just educational for others.

For anyone that wants a great in-depth but easily understandable explanation of land cost, residual value, home pricing etc. go to the Irvine Housing Blogsite. He (Irvine Renter) has a couple of great posts on the subject.

BTW, how do I get the spreadsheet to look like a spreadsheet here?

[temeculaguy]

You are also going to have to break Morgan Valley out of the Morgan hill numbers in any comparison because they primarily sit on 1/3 to 1/2 acre lots, not fair to compare them to 7000 sq ft lots, also the morgan hill ones in Ventana are also on huge lots and have R.V. garages, I think they are over a half acre and are so upscale inside it’s not fair to compare them in ppsf, you might have to put them in the morgan valley group. The problem with the valley and the ventana homes is they are more like customs, the backyards can be worth more than the morgan tract homes so that is another x factor. Here is an example on a ventana listed at over 300 per sq ft. It is way overpriced, maybe not quite double, but look at the pictures, you cant compare it to the second link just because of the lot and the level of improvements.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44664-Frogs-Leap-St-92592/home/6644068

and this repo in a more tract like setting at 120 a square

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45197-Broman-St-92592/home/6570845

But I love the effort and the data, break it into two groups, maybe under and over 1/3 acre lots or into tracts.

[temeculaguy]

You are also going to have to break Morgan Valley out of the Morgan hill numbers in any comparison because they primarily sit on 1/3 to 1/2 acre lots, not fair to compare them to 7000 sq ft lots, also the morgan hill ones in Ventana are also on huge lots and have R.V. garages, I think they are over a half acre and are so upscale inside it’s not fair to compare them in ppsf, you might have to put them in the morgan valley group. The problem with the valley and the ventana homes is they are more like customs, the backyards can be worth more than the morgan tract homes so that is another x factor. Here is an example on a ventana listed at over 300 per sq ft. It is way overpriced, maybe not quite double, but look at the pictures, you cant compare it to the second link just because of the lot and the level of improvements.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44664-Frogs-Leap-St-92592/home/6644068

and this repo in a more tract like setting at 120 a square

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45197-Broman-St-92592/home/6570845

But I love the effort and the data, break it into two groups, maybe under and over 1/3 acre lots or into tracts.

[temeculaguy]

You are also going to have to break Morgan Valley out of the Morgan hill numbers in any comparison because they primarily sit on 1/3 to 1/2 acre lots, not fair to compare them to 7000 sq ft lots, also the morgan hill ones in Ventana are also on huge lots and have R.V. garages, I think they are over a half acre and are so upscale inside it’s not fair to compare them in ppsf, you might have to put them in the morgan valley group. The problem with the valley and the ventana homes is they are more like customs, the backyards can be worth more than the morgan tract homes so that is another x factor. Here is an example on a ventana listed at over 300 per sq ft. It is way overpriced, maybe not quite double, but look at the pictures, you cant compare it to the second link just because of the lot and the level of improvements.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44664-Frogs-Leap-St-92592/home/6644068

and this repo in a more tract like setting at 120 a square

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45197-Broman-St-92592/home/6570845

But I love the effort and the data, break it into two groups, maybe under and over 1/3 acre lots or into tracts.

[temeculaguy]

You are also going to have to break Morgan Valley out of the Morgan hill numbers in any comparison because they primarily sit on 1/3 to 1/2 acre lots, not fair to compare them to 7000 sq ft lots, also the morgan hill ones in Ventana are also on huge lots and have R.V. garages, I think they are over a half acre and are so upscale inside it’s not fair to compare them in ppsf, you might have to put them in the morgan valley group. The problem with the valley and the ventana homes is they are more like customs, the backyards can be worth more than the morgan tract homes so that is another x factor. Here is an example on a ventana listed at over 300 per sq ft. It is way overpriced, maybe not quite double, but look at the pictures, you cant compare it to the second link just because of the lot and the level of improvements.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44664-Frogs-Leap-St-92592/home/6644068

and this repo in a more tract like setting at 120 a square

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45197-Broman-St-92592/home/6570845

But I love the effort and the data, break it into two groups, maybe under and over 1/3 acre lots or into tracts.

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