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temeculaguy
ParticipantRen you are right, those are the ones.
http://www.khov.com/Home/CA/767/_Properties_AUTH.htm
It’s a good builder for a national, it’s not what ox wants, it’s not the typical Fallbrook avo ranch but it is an indication of the market there.
Ox, it isn’t just a possibility that prices ooze down the 15, it’s a fact and something that always happens. A few years ago when we were all making predictions the majority agreed with Bugs’ “all things are related” theory. The drops in Murrieta, caused buyers considering temecula to move 10 miles north to save 10-20%, next thing you knew that hurt temec sales and it responded with it’s own drops, then fallbrook esco lose buyers to temec ten miles north and this cycle repeats itself with new waves coming. At some point the whole Temecula Valley is half off and if fallbrook/esco isn’t it soon will be, then san marcos, vista oside, the final wave is carlsbad, poway, rb, carmel valley, etc. They are now experiencing the wave from two years ago up here, it’s anyones guess if the half off everything knockout blow will hit them because government intervention may take hold before they get theirs. But the brook and esco, they are too close the the epicenter, the effects are felt sooner, being felt now, so I would not call bottom in fallbrook or esco at the same on the calendar as carlsbad, they are on opposite ends of the pain trains tracks and the percentage of decline from peak is much higher the further out you get from the center.
ParticipantRen you are right, those are the ones.
http://www.khov.com/Home/CA/767/_Properties_AUTH.htm
It’s a good builder for a national, it’s not what ox wants, it’s not the typical Fallbrook avo ranch but it is an indication of the market there.
Ox, it isn’t just a possibility that prices ooze down the 15, it’s a fact and something that always happens. A few years ago when we were all making predictions the majority agreed with Bugs’ “all things are related” theory. The drops in Murrieta, caused buyers considering temecula to move 10 miles north to save 10-20%, next thing you knew that hurt temec sales and it responded with it’s own drops, then fallbrook esco lose buyers to temec ten miles north and this cycle repeats itself with new waves coming. At some point the whole Temecula Valley is half off and if fallbrook/esco isn’t it soon will be, then san marcos, vista oside, the final wave is carlsbad, poway, rb, carmel valley, etc. They are now experiencing the wave from two years ago up here, it’s anyones guess if the half off everything knockout blow will hit them because government intervention may take hold before they get theirs. But the brook and esco, they are too close the the epicenter, the effects are felt sooner, being felt now, so I would not call bottom in fallbrook or esco at the same on the calendar as carlsbad, they are on opposite ends of the pain trains tracks and the percentage of decline from peak is much higher the further out you get from the center.
ParticipantRen you are right, those are the ones.
http://www.khov.com/Home/CA/767/_Properties_AUTH.htm
It’s a good builder for a national, it’s not what ox wants, it’s not the typical Fallbrook avo ranch but it is an indication of the market there.
Ox, it isn’t just a possibility that prices ooze down the 15, it’s a fact and something that always happens. A few years ago when we were all making predictions the majority agreed with Bugs’ “all things are related” theory. The drops in Murrieta, caused buyers considering temecula to move 10 miles north to save 10-20%, next thing you knew that hurt temec sales and it responded with it’s own drops, then fallbrook esco lose buyers to temec ten miles north and this cycle repeats itself with new waves coming. At some point the whole Temecula Valley is half off and if fallbrook/esco isn’t it soon will be, then san marcos, vista oside, the final wave is carlsbad, poway, rb, carmel valley, etc. They are now experiencing the wave from two years ago up here, it’s anyones guess if the half off everything knockout blow will hit them because government intervention may take hold before they get theirs. But the brook and esco, they are too close the the epicenter, the effects are felt sooner, being felt now, so I would not call bottom in fallbrook or esco at the same on the calendar as carlsbad, they are on opposite ends of the pain trains tracks and the percentage of decline from peak is much higher the further out you get from the center.
ParticipantI’m not in the biz but I contacted a lender about the same thing a few weeks ago, of course HLS can give the true skinny. What I found out was 25% down and you had to qualify without factoring the rent as income, meaning you ahd to qual and prove income to cover all properties as if none received any rent. This may be why they are priced well, only those with cash reserves and serious cushion can buy. They are doing this to defend against bait and switch people, those that want to buy at lower prices and downsize, then walk away from their primary, pretending to be planning on renting the newly aquired property, but moving in it instead and jingle mailing the first.
ParticipantI’m not in the biz but I contacted a lender about the same thing a few weeks ago, of course HLS can give the true skinny. What I found out was 25% down and you had to qualify without factoring the rent as income, meaning you ahd to qual and prove income to cover all properties as if none received any rent. This may be why they are priced well, only those with cash reserves and serious cushion can buy. They are doing this to defend against bait and switch people, those that want to buy at lower prices and downsize, then walk away from their primary, pretending to be planning on renting the newly aquired property, but moving in it instead and jingle mailing the first.
ParticipantI’m not in the biz but I contacted a lender about the same thing a few weeks ago, of course HLS can give the true skinny. What I found out was 25% down and you had to qualify without factoring the rent as income, meaning you ahd to qual and prove income to cover all properties as if none received any rent. This may be why they are priced well, only those with cash reserves and serious cushion can buy. They are doing this to defend against bait and switch people, those that want to buy at lower prices and downsize, then walk away from their primary, pretending to be planning on renting the newly aquired property, but moving in it instead and jingle mailing the first.
ParticipantI’m not in the biz but I contacted a lender about the same thing a few weeks ago, of course HLS can give the true skinny. What I found out was 25% down and you had to qualify without factoring the rent as income, meaning you ahd to qual and prove income to cover all properties as if none received any rent. This may be why they are priced well, only those with cash reserves and serious cushion can buy. They are doing this to defend against bait and switch people, those that want to buy at lower prices and downsize, then walk away from their primary, pretending to be planning on renting the newly aquired property, but moving in it instead and jingle mailing the first.
ParticipantI’m not in the biz but I contacted a lender about the same thing a few weeks ago, of course HLS can give the true skinny. What I found out was 25% down and you had to qualify without factoring the rent as income, meaning you ahd to qual and prove income to cover all properties as if none received any rent. This may be why they are priced well, only those with cash reserves and serious cushion can buy. They are doing this to defend against bait and switch people, those that want to buy at lower prices and downsize, then walk away from their primary, pretending to be planning on renting the newly aquired property, but moving in it instead and jingle mailing the first.
ParticipantOX, one last observation, Fallbrook/Esco may be ripe sooner than you think. There is a new construction tract in fallbrook that is now priced in the 300’s, sub 150 a square, they are actually selling fast. 2800 sq ft new construction for 380k, that’s the most expensive one and who knows what other incentives there are, thats just the posted prices on the web. Big, new SFR’s in the 3’s in what is a fairly nice little town, those numbers have a post pain train feel to them. I heard from a friend that it is that builder’s fastest seller right now in So Cal. For the brook, 2009 and 2010 are safe plays with the current rates.
ParticipantOX, one last observation, Fallbrook/Esco may be ripe sooner than you think. There is a new construction tract in fallbrook that is now priced in the 300’s, sub 150 a square, they are actually selling fast. 2800 sq ft new construction for 380k, that’s the most expensive one and who knows what other incentives there are, thats just the posted prices on the web. Big, new SFR’s in the 3’s in what is a fairly nice little town, those numbers have a post pain train feel to them. I heard from a friend that it is that builder’s fastest seller right now in So Cal. For the brook, 2009 and 2010 are safe plays with the current rates.
ParticipantOX, one last observation, Fallbrook/Esco may be ripe sooner than you think. There is a new construction tract in fallbrook that is now priced in the 300’s, sub 150 a square, they are actually selling fast. 2800 sq ft new construction for 380k, that’s the most expensive one and who knows what other incentives there are, thats just the posted prices on the web. Big, new SFR’s in the 3’s in what is a fairly nice little town, those numbers have a post pain train feel to them. I heard from a friend that it is that builder’s fastest seller right now in So Cal. For the brook, 2009 and 2010 are safe plays with the current rates.
ParticipantOX, one last observation, Fallbrook/Esco may be ripe sooner than you think. There is a new construction tract in fallbrook that is now priced in the 300’s, sub 150 a square, they are actually selling fast. 2800 sq ft new construction for 380k, that’s the most expensive one and who knows what other incentives there are, thats just the posted prices on the web. Big, new SFR’s in the 3’s in what is a fairly nice little town, those numbers have a post pain train feel to them. I heard from a friend that it is that builder’s fastest seller right now in So Cal. For the brook, 2009 and 2010 are safe plays with the current rates.
ParticipantOX, one last observation, Fallbrook/Esco may be ripe sooner than you think. There is a new construction tract in fallbrook that is now priced in the 300’s, sub 150 a square, they are actually selling fast. 2800 sq ft new construction for 380k, that’s the most expensive one and who knows what other incentives there are, thats just the posted prices on the web. Big, new SFR’s in the 3’s in what is a fairly nice little town, those numbers have a post pain train feel to them. I heard from a friend that it is that builder’s fastest seller right now in So Cal. For the brook, 2009 and 2010 are safe plays with the current rates.
ParticipantI’m with REN on this one, it’s all about percentages and micromarkets. The pain train is still on the tracks, don’t buy until it passes through your town, then wait for the dust to start settling once it passes. I like REN’s timeline, fairly accurate and one that was predicted years ago by BUGS, it is happening right on schedule.
BTW, OX esco/fallbrook are North County, East County refers to Lakeside/Santee/El Cajon/Alpine etc. Places East of La Mesa and South of Poway and Ramona.
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