Is this correct time to buy or Still to wait?

[SDEngineer]

[quote=peterb]30% of mortgages in SD county are upside down. Unemployment is rising, still. Commercial RE is starting crack in a big way. Give yourself some more time if you can. This is a recipe for pure disaster.[/quote]

Bear in mind though that housing is a leading indicator in economic downturns – in past economic downturns, housing has turned positive before the economy hit rock bottom. Both commercial investment and unemployment lag recoveries by a significant amount (both still trend worse well after housing has recovered, and after the economy has rebounded).

Of course, this is likely to be the worst downturn since the Great Depression (though I believe in total effect it still currently trails the double-dip recession of the early 80’s, however, this downturn isn’t finished yet).

Of course, I’m biased, since I’ve decided that it is a reasonable time to buy, and am currently under contract for a new townhome in the east county. There’s no chance I would buy at the coast or in the higher end areas at this time though – the higher end and coastal areas are historically the last to adjust. Maybe next year if I was looking at 4S Ranch.

[SD Realtor]

5year you have to analyze your own situation and your needs and then apply the macro perspective to see how much it will affect you.

SDEngineer brought up an extremely important point that you should apply to your own search. Are you looking to live in an area that has already experienced a 40-50% decline from the peak or an area that is only off 20%? Are you looking for a long term residence or is there a chance of another relocation in a few years? Are you a 4S Ranch/CV/LCV guy or are you a Mira Mesa or East County guy? Answering some of those questions can help you figure out how far down the depreciation cycle the areas you are focussed on have fallen.

As far as the policy that Geitner has put in place I think it is way to early to pass judgement. However nobody has seemed to acknowledge that this is a VERY effective vehicle for lenders to offload all the turds they have on the books. Make no mistake, this DOES NOT HELP ME OR YOU. This helps the lenders AND it helps the private investors who will purchase this crap and then sell it, keep it, rent it out or whatever. Furthermore these investors have virtually NO RISK in these private purchases. This MAY very much help to mitigate the upcoming tsunami that everyone has been crowing about.

We will see.

What concerns me more is not the domestic issues. Left on our own these problems do not seem insurmountable. If you are a true bear in hopes for large depreciation chunks then you are rooting with every once of hope for China to pull the plug on treasuries which while probable in the long term, is highly improbable in the short term. Thus with rates pushed to these absurd levels, and a government that WANTS YOU TO BUY, will help keep demand up.

Peter brought up absolute certainties with regards to unemployment. Yet I think we would all agree that we are pretty darn well up that unemployment hill. Will it go up another 2%? 3%? 5%? I don’t know but at some point it will rain money and people will be digging holes and getting paid well for it. At about that same time inflation will kick in and who knows what will happen.

Sorry for not giving you a direct answer. To be very honest… I just do not know. It just keeps getting more bizarre every day. Maybe at the very very very least let this spring rally get over with. I still maintain we are not even close to a bottom in many of the better areas.

[SD Realtor]

5year you have to analyze your own situation and your needs and then apply the macro perspective to see how much it will affect you.

SDEngineer brought up an extremely important point that you should apply to your own search. Are you looking to live in an area that has already experienced a 40-50% decline from the peak or an area that is only off 20%? Are you looking for a long term residence or is there a chance of another relocation in a few years? Are you a 4S Ranch/CV/LCV guy or are you a Mira Mesa or East County guy? Answering some of those questions can help you figure out how far down the depreciation cycle the areas you are focussed on have fallen.

As far as the policy that Geitner has put in place I think it is way to early to pass judgement. However nobody has seemed to acknowledge that this is a VERY effective vehicle for lenders to offload all the turds they have on the books. Make no mistake, this DOES NOT HELP ME OR YOU. This helps the lenders AND it helps the private investors who will purchase this crap and then sell it, keep it, rent it out or whatever. Furthermore these investors have virtually NO RISK in these private purchases. This MAY very much help to mitigate the upcoming tsunami that everyone has been crowing about.

We will see.

What concerns me more is not the domestic issues. Left on our own these problems do not seem insurmountable. If you are a true bear in hopes for large depreciation chunks then you are rooting with every once of hope for China to pull the plug on treasuries which while probable in the long term, is highly improbable in the short term. Thus with rates pushed to these absurd levels, and a government that WANTS YOU TO BUY, will help keep demand up.

Peter brought up absolute certainties with regards to unemployment. Yet I think we would all agree that we are pretty darn well up that unemployment hill. Will it go up another 2%? 3%? 5%? I don’t know but at some point it will rain money and people will be digging holes and getting paid well for it. At about that same time inflation will kick in and who knows what will happen.

Sorry for not giving you a direct answer. To be very honest… I just do not know. It just keeps getting more bizarre every day. Maybe at the very very very least let this spring rally get over with. I still maintain we are not even close to a bottom in many of the better areas.

[SD Realtor]

5year you have to analyze your own situation and your needs and then apply the macro perspective to see how much it will affect you.

SDEngineer brought up an extremely important point that you should apply to your own search. Are you looking to live in an area that has already experienced a 40-50% decline from the peak or an area that is only off 20%? Are you looking for a long term residence or is there a chance of another relocation in a few years? Are you a 4S Ranch/CV/LCV guy or are you a Mira Mesa or East County guy? Answering some of those questions can help you figure out how far down the depreciation cycle the areas you are focussed on have fallen.

As far as the policy that Geitner has put in place I think it is way to early to pass judgement. However nobody has seemed to acknowledge that this is a VERY effective vehicle for lenders to offload all the turds they have on the books. Make no mistake, this DOES NOT HELP ME OR YOU. This helps the lenders AND it helps the private investors who will purchase this crap and then sell it, keep it, rent it out or whatever. Furthermore these investors have virtually NO RISK in these private purchases. This MAY very much help to mitigate the upcoming tsunami that everyone has been crowing about.

We will see.

What concerns me more is not the domestic issues. Left on our own these problems do not seem insurmountable. If you are a true bear in hopes for large depreciation chunks then you are rooting with every once of hope for China to pull the plug on treasuries which while probable in the long term, is highly improbable in the short term. Thus with rates pushed to these absurd levels, and a government that WANTS YOU TO BUY, will help keep demand up.

Peter brought up absolute certainties with regards to unemployment. Yet I think we would all agree that we are pretty darn well up that unemployment hill. Will it go up another 2%? 3%? 5%? I don’t know but at some point it will rain money and people will be digging holes and getting paid well for it. At about that same time inflation will kick in and who knows what will happen.

Sorry for not giving you a direct answer. To be very honest… I just do not know. It just keeps getting more bizarre every day. Maybe at the very very very least let this spring rally get over with. I still maintain we are not even close to a bottom in many of the better areas.

[SD Realtor]

5year you have to analyze your own situation and your needs and then apply the macro perspective to see how much it will affect you.

SDEngineer brought up an extremely important point that you should apply to your own search. Are you looking to live in an area that has already experienced a 40-50% decline from the peak or an area that is only off 20%? Are you looking for a long term residence or is there a chance of another relocation in a few years? Are you a 4S Ranch/CV/LCV guy or are you a Mira Mesa or East County guy? Answering some of those questions can help you figure out how far down the depreciation cycle the areas you are focussed on have fallen.

As far as the policy that Geitner has put in place I think it is way to early to pass judgement. However nobody has seemed to acknowledge that this is a VERY effective vehicle for lenders to offload all the turds they have on the books. Make no mistake, this DOES NOT HELP ME OR YOU. This helps the lenders AND it helps the private investors who will purchase this crap and then sell it, keep it, rent it out or whatever. Furthermore these investors have virtually NO RISK in these private purchases. This MAY very much help to mitigate the upcoming tsunami that everyone has been crowing about.

We will see.

What concerns me more is not the domestic issues. Left on our own these problems do not seem insurmountable. If you are a true bear in hopes for large depreciation chunks then you are rooting with every once of hope for China to pull the plug on treasuries which while probable in the long term, is highly improbable in the short term. Thus with rates pushed to these absurd levels, and a government that WANTS YOU TO BUY, will help keep demand up.

Peter brought up absolute certainties with regards to unemployment. Yet I think we would all agree that we are pretty darn well up that unemployment hill. Will it go up another 2%? 3%? 5%? I don’t know but at some point it will rain money and people will be digging holes and getting paid well for it. At about that same time inflation will kick in and who knows what will happen.

Sorry for not giving you a direct answer. To be very honest… I just do not know. It just keeps getting more bizarre every day. Maybe at the very very very least let this spring rally get over with. I still maintain we are not even close to a bottom in many of the better areas.

[SD Realtor]

5year you have to analyze your own situation and your needs and then apply the macro perspective to see how much it will affect you.

SDEngineer brought up an extremely important point that you should apply to your own search. Are you looking to live in an area that has already experienced a 40-50% decline from the peak or an area that is only off 20%? Are you looking for a long term residence or is there a chance of another relocation in a few years? Are you a 4S Ranch/CV/LCV guy or are you a Mira Mesa or East County guy? Answering some of those questions can help you figure out how far down the depreciation cycle the areas you are focussed on have fallen.

As far as the policy that Geitner has put in place I think it is way to early to pass judgement. However nobody has seemed to acknowledge that this is a VERY effective vehicle for lenders to offload all the turds they have on the books. Make no mistake, this DOES NOT HELP ME OR YOU. This helps the lenders AND it helps the private investors who will purchase this crap and then sell it, keep it, rent it out or whatever. Furthermore these investors have virtually NO RISK in these private purchases. This MAY very much help to mitigate the upcoming tsunami that everyone has been crowing about.

We will see.

What concerns me more is not the domestic issues. Left on our own these problems do not seem insurmountable. If you are a true bear in hopes for large depreciation chunks then you are rooting with every once of hope for China to pull the plug on treasuries which while probable in the long term, is highly improbable in the short term. Thus with rates pushed to these absurd levels, and a government that WANTS YOU TO BUY, will help keep demand up.

Peter brought up absolute certainties with regards to unemployment. Yet I think we would all agree that we are pretty darn well up that unemployment hill. Will it go up another 2%? 3%? 5%? I don’t know but at some point it will rain money and people will be digging holes and getting paid well for it. At about that same time inflation will kick in and who knows what will happen.

Sorry for not giving you a direct answer. To be very honest… I just do not know. It just keeps getting more bizarre every day. Maybe at the very very very least let this spring rally get over with. I still maintain we are not even close to a bottom in many of the better areas.

[Oxford]

I am waiting about 6 to 8 months (renting) before I buy in east county. (Fallbrook/Escondido)

I am not sure if the bottom has been found yet but believe that a lot more foreclosures are coming on and will be comp killing along the way. Plus, banks will be trying to dump inventory in Oct/Nov to clean up books.

However, it is hard to pass on some amazing cherry homes showing up that fit my needs, but I am sticking to my strategy on this. (my GF is going bonkers but that’s another story). Most of the “cherry” bargin homes are pending in 5 days on market.

To answer your question… it depends. There are GREAT Deals out there NOW and loan rates are insane. There are also economic elements pushing housing prices down farther (I believe).

I think if your temperament is impatient, you could monitor a Sandicor Feed of your specs and snag a bargain as soon as it came on the market. (read: be a shark) and you would do very well. Or you could hold up until November and perhaps do GREAT.

ox
…knows when to hold’em

[Oxford]

I am waiting about 6 to 8 months (renting) before I buy in east county. (Fallbrook/Escondido)

I am not sure if the bottom has been found yet but believe that a lot more foreclosures are coming on and will be comp killing along the way. Plus, banks will be trying to dump inventory in Oct/Nov to clean up books.

However, it is hard to pass on some amazing cherry homes showing up that fit my needs, but I am sticking to my strategy on this. (my GF is going bonkers but that’s another story). Most of the “cherry” bargin homes are pending in 5 days on market.

To answer your question… it depends. There are GREAT Deals out there NOW and loan rates are insane. There are also economic elements pushing housing prices down farther (I believe).

I think if your temperament is impatient, you could monitor a Sandicor Feed of your specs and snag a bargain as soon as it came on the market. (read: be a shark) and you would do very well. Or you could hold up until November and perhaps do GREAT.

ox
…knows when to hold’em

[Oxford]

I am waiting about 6 to 8 months (renting) before I buy in east county. (Fallbrook/Escondido)

I am not sure if the bottom has been found yet but believe that a lot more foreclosures are coming on and will be comp killing along the way. Plus, banks will be trying to dump inventory in Oct/Nov to clean up books.

However, it is hard to pass on some amazing cherry homes showing up that fit my needs, but I am sticking to my strategy on this. (my GF is going bonkers but that’s another story). Most of the “cherry” bargin homes are pending in 5 days on market.

To answer your question… it depends. There are GREAT Deals out there NOW and loan rates are insane. There are also economic elements pushing housing prices down farther (I believe).

I think if your temperament is impatient, you could monitor a Sandicor Feed of your specs and snag a bargain as soon as it came on the market. (read: be a shark) and you would do very well. Or you could hold up until November and perhaps do GREAT.

ox
…knows when to hold’em

[Oxford]

I am waiting about 6 to 8 months (renting) before I buy in east county. (Fallbrook/Escondido)

I am not sure if the bottom has been found yet but believe that a lot more foreclosures are coming on and will be comp killing along the way. Plus, banks will be trying to dump inventory in Oct/Nov to clean up books.

However, it is hard to pass on some amazing cherry homes showing up that fit my needs, but I am sticking to my strategy on this. (my GF is going bonkers but that’s another story). Most of the “cherry” bargin homes are pending in 5 days on market.

To answer your question… it depends. There are GREAT Deals out there NOW and loan rates are insane. There are also economic elements pushing housing prices down farther (I believe).

I think if your temperament is impatient, you could monitor a Sandicor Feed of your specs and snag a bargain as soon as it came on the market. (read: be a shark) and you would do very well. Or you could hold up until November and perhaps do GREAT.

ox
…knows when to hold’em

[Oxford]

I am waiting about 6 to 8 months (renting) before I buy in east county. (Fallbrook/Escondido)

I am not sure if the bottom has been found yet but believe that a lot more foreclosures are coming on and will be comp killing along the way. Plus, banks will be trying to dump inventory in Oct/Nov to clean up books.

However, it is hard to pass on some amazing cherry homes showing up that fit my needs, but I am sticking to my strategy on this. (my GF is going bonkers but that’s another story). Most of the “cherry” bargin homes are pending in 5 days on market.

To answer your question… it depends. There are GREAT Deals out there NOW and loan rates are insane. There are also economic elements pushing housing prices down farther (I believe).

I think if your temperament is impatient, you could monitor a Sandicor Feed of your specs and snag a bargain as soon as it came on the market. (read: be a shark) and you would do very well. Or you could hold up until November and perhaps do GREAT.

ox
…knows when to hold’em

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=SD Realtor]
Sorry for not giving you a direct answer. To be very honest… I just do not know. It just keeps getting more bizarre every day. Maybe at the very very very least let this spring rally get over with. I still maintain we are not even close to a bottom in many of the better areas.
[/quote]

Hi SDrealtor and SDengineer – both of you rendered and educated the current situation – thanks you all who expressed the clear opinions. Honestly I am too confused these days compared to past days (though they were huge in prices). Don’t know how the situation is going to be and sure the unemployment downturn is going to hit more. One way seeing those 4SRanch and Carmel Valley – still those aren’t the ideal prices to go and invest that much money – in case if things didn’t go properly that entier invstment going to be a big lose. I am living in RB area and interested near those zip code and carmel valley too. It’s so unfair about the Governments that kept us very confuse in a day to day life, what the heck remained except stress to live with a peacful mind afteral having one life to live but getting waste and confused without our control and intervention these days.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=SD Realtor]
Sorry for not giving you a direct answer. To be very honest… I just do not know. It just keeps getting more bizarre every day. Maybe at the very very very least let this spring rally get over with. I still maintain we are not even close to a bottom in many of the better areas.
[/quote]

Hi SDrealtor and SDengineer – both of you rendered and educated the current situation – thanks you all who expressed the clear opinions. Honestly I am too confused these days compared to past days (though they were huge in prices). Don’t know how the situation is going to be and sure the unemployment downturn is going to hit more. One way seeing those 4SRanch and Carmel Valley – still those aren’t the ideal prices to go and invest that much money – in case if things didn’t go properly that entier invstment going to be a big lose. I am living in RB area and interested near those zip code and carmel valley too. It’s so unfair about the Governments that kept us very confuse in a day to day life, what the heck remained except stress to live with a peacful mind afteral having one life to live but getting waste and confused without our control and intervention these days.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=SD Realtor]
Sorry for not giving you a direct answer. To be very honest… I just do not know. It just keeps getting more bizarre every day. Maybe at the very very very least let this spring rally get over with. I still maintain we are not even close to a bottom in many of the better areas.
[/quote]

Hi SDrealtor and SDengineer – both of you rendered and educated the current situation – thanks you all who expressed the clear opinions. Honestly I am too confused these days compared to past days (though they were huge in prices). Don’t know how the situation is going to be and sure the unemployment downturn is going to hit more. One way seeing those 4SRanch and Carmel Valley – still those aren’t the ideal prices to go and invest that much money – in case if things didn’t go properly that entier invstment going to be a big lose. I am living in RB area and interested near those zip code and carmel valley too. It’s so unfair about the Governments that kept us very confuse in a day to day life, what the heck remained except stress to live with a peacful mind afteral having one life to live but getting waste and confused without our control and intervention these days.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=SD Realtor]
Sorry for not giving you a direct answer. To be very honest… I just do not know. It just keeps getting more bizarre every day. Maybe at the very very very least let this spring rally get over with. I still maintain we are not even close to a bottom in many of the better areas.
[/quote]

Hi SDrealtor and SDengineer – both of you rendered and educated the current situation – thanks you all who expressed the clear opinions. Honestly I am too confused these days compared to past days (though they were huge in prices). Don’t know how the situation is going to be and sure the unemployment downturn is going to hit more. One way seeing those 4SRanch and Carmel Valley – still those aren’t the ideal prices to go and invest that much money – in case if things didn’t go properly that entier invstment going to be a big lose. I am living in RB area and interested near those zip code and carmel valley too. It’s so unfair about the Governments that kept us very confuse in a day to day life, what the heck remained except stress to live with a peacful mind afteral having one life to live but getting waste and confused without our control and intervention these days.

[Author]

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