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Nor-LA-SD-guy.
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March 29, 2009 at 10:14 AM #15386March 29, 2009 at 12:49 PM #374311
peterb
Participant30% of mortgages in SD county are upside down. Unemployment is rising, still. Commercial RE is starting crack in a big way. Give yourself some more time if you can. This is a recipe for pure disaster.
March 29, 2009 at 12:49 PM #374808peterb
Participant30% of mortgages in SD county are upside down. Unemployment is rising, still. Commercial RE is starting crack in a big way. Give yourself some more time if you can. This is a recipe for pure disaster.
March 29, 2009 at 12:49 PM #374766peterb
Participant30% of mortgages in SD county are upside down. Unemployment is rising, still. Commercial RE is starting crack in a big way. Give yourself some more time if you can. This is a recipe for pure disaster.
March 29, 2009 at 12:49 PM #374929peterb
Participant30% of mortgages in SD county are upside down. Unemployment is rising, still. Commercial RE is starting crack in a big way. Give yourself some more time if you can. This is a recipe for pure disaster.
March 29, 2009 at 12:49 PM #374591peterb
Participant30% of mortgages in SD county are upside down. Unemployment is rising, still. Commercial RE is starting crack in a big way. Give yourself some more time if you can. This is a recipe for pure disaster.
March 29, 2009 at 12:56 PM #374771Ren
ParticipantDepends on location – different areas rise and fall at different times than others.
I would guess that Murrieta is at or near its bottom, Temecula is close behind, followed by Escondido and east county in fall/winter of 2010, 4S, Scripps Ranch and San Elijo Hills in 2011, and the coast in 2012.
Disclaimer: Those are purely my semi-educated guesses and may be wildly inaccurate.
March 29, 2009 at 12:56 PM #374316Ren
ParticipantDepends on location – different areas rise and fall at different times than others.
I would guess that Murrieta is at or near its bottom, Temecula is close behind, followed by Escondido and east county in fall/winter of 2010, 4S, Scripps Ranch and San Elijo Hills in 2011, and the coast in 2012.
Disclaimer: Those are purely my semi-educated guesses and may be wildly inaccurate.
March 29, 2009 at 12:56 PM #374934Ren
ParticipantDepends on location – different areas rise and fall at different times than others.
I would guess that Murrieta is at or near its bottom, Temecula is close behind, followed by Escondido and east county in fall/winter of 2010, 4S, Scripps Ranch and San Elijo Hills in 2011, and the coast in 2012.
Disclaimer: Those are purely my semi-educated guesses and may be wildly inaccurate.
March 29, 2009 at 12:56 PM #374813Ren
ParticipantDepends on location – different areas rise and fall at different times than others.
I would guess that Murrieta is at or near its bottom, Temecula is close behind, followed by Escondido and east county in fall/winter of 2010, 4S, Scripps Ranch and San Elijo Hills in 2011, and the coast in 2012.
Disclaimer: Those are purely my semi-educated guesses and may be wildly inaccurate.
March 29, 2009 at 12:56 PM #374596Ren
ParticipantDepends on location – different areas rise and fall at different times than others.
I would guess that Murrieta is at or near its bottom, Temecula is close behind, followed by Escondido and east county in fall/winter of 2010, 4S, Scripps Ranch and San Elijo Hills in 2011, and the coast in 2012.
Disclaimer: Those are purely my semi-educated guesses and may be wildly inaccurate.
March 29, 2009 at 2:17 PM #374791SDEngineer
Participant[quote=peterb]30% of mortgages in SD county are upside down. Unemployment is rising, still. Commercial RE is starting crack in a big way. Give yourself some more time if you can. This is a recipe for pure disaster.[/quote]
Bear in mind though that housing is a leading indicator in economic downturns – in past economic downturns, housing has turned positive before the economy hit rock bottom. Both commercial investment and unemployment lag recoveries by a significant amount (both still trend worse well after housing has recovered, and after the economy has rebounded).
Of course, this is likely to be the worst downturn since the Great Depression (though I believe in total effect it still currently trails the double-dip recession of the early 80’s, however, this downturn isn’t finished yet).
Of course, I’m biased, since I’ve decided that it is a reasonable time to buy, and am currently under contract for a new townhome in the east county. There’s no chance I would buy at the coast or in the higher end areas at this time though – the higher end and coastal areas are historically the last to adjust. Maybe next year if I was looking at 4S Ranch.
March 29, 2009 at 2:17 PM #374336SDEngineer
Participant[quote=peterb]30% of mortgages in SD county are upside down. Unemployment is rising, still. Commercial RE is starting crack in a big way. Give yourself some more time if you can. This is a recipe for pure disaster.[/quote]
Bear in mind though that housing is a leading indicator in economic downturns – in past economic downturns, housing has turned positive before the economy hit rock bottom. Both commercial investment and unemployment lag recoveries by a significant amount (both still trend worse well after housing has recovered, and after the economy has rebounded).
Of course, this is likely to be the worst downturn since the Great Depression (though I believe in total effect it still currently trails the double-dip recession of the early 80’s, however, this downturn isn’t finished yet).
Of course, I’m biased, since I’ve decided that it is a reasonable time to buy, and am currently under contract for a new townhome in the east county. There’s no chance I would buy at the coast or in the higher end areas at this time though – the higher end and coastal areas are historically the last to adjust. Maybe next year if I was looking at 4S Ranch.
March 29, 2009 at 2:17 PM #374834SDEngineer
Participant[quote=peterb]30% of mortgages in SD county are upside down. Unemployment is rising, still. Commercial RE is starting crack in a big way. Give yourself some more time if you can. This is a recipe for pure disaster.[/quote]
Bear in mind though that housing is a leading indicator in economic downturns – in past economic downturns, housing has turned positive before the economy hit rock bottom. Both commercial investment and unemployment lag recoveries by a significant amount (both still trend worse well after housing has recovered, and after the economy has rebounded).
Of course, this is likely to be the worst downturn since the Great Depression (though I believe in total effect it still currently trails the double-dip recession of the early 80’s, however, this downturn isn’t finished yet).
Of course, I’m biased, since I’ve decided that it is a reasonable time to buy, and am currently under contract for a new townhome in the east county. There’s no chance I would buy at the coast or in the higher end areas at this time though – the higher end and coastal areas are historically the last to adjust. Maybe next year if I was looking at 4S Ranch.
March 29, 2009 at 2:17 PM #374954SDEngineer
Participant[quote=peterb]30% of mortgages in SD county are upside down. Unemployment is rising, still. Commercial RE is starting crack in a big way. Give yourself some more time if you can. This is a recipe for pure disaster.[/quote]
Bear in mind though that housing is a leading indicator in economic downturns – in past economic downturns, housing has turned positive before the economy hit rock bottom. Both commercial investment and unemployment lag recoveries by a significant amount (both still trend worse well after housing has recovered, and after the economy has rebounded).
Of course, this is likely to be the worst downturn since the Great Depression (though I believe in total effect it still currently trails the double-dip recession of the early 80’s, however, this downturn isn’t finished yet).
Of course, I’m biased, since I’ve decided that it is a reasonable time to buy, and am currently under contract for a new townhome in the east county. There’s no chance I would buy at the coast or in the higher end areas at this time though – the higher end and coastal areas are historically the last to adjust. Maybe next year if I was looking at 4S Ranch.
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