[temeculaguy]

[quote=teacherSD][quote=AN]

Based on my own experiences and seeing my cousins who just graduated HS this year, students taking AP classes tend to hang out with each other.[/quote]

As an AP teacher I can assure you this is correct for most students, not just your cousins. Oftentimes AP kids will play the same sports together and tend to date other AP kids.

When my own kids are old enough for high school I’ll want them to be in AP classes just so they’ll hopefully have a better peer group.[/quote]

Here’s a little tip for those of you with school aged kids, encourage them to take AP classes, not just for the friends but for the college credit. Mine is now at a University and I was pleasantly suprised to see that online he has almost a year of school knocked out just because of the AP classes. I don’t believe that he will finish a year early, but it should make it easier to finish in 4 years. When your kid takes an AP class there is a private comapany that charges $70 per class to take a test (which I thought was a racket) and when they get into college that same company charges for you to send the test results to the university (another racket). But now that it’s in the rear view mirror, that was money well spent. I’m burping up about 20k per year, per kid for college, so that $70 test seems like a bargain if it will save me 10k or 20k by not having them go an extra semester or two. At these prices, I’d rather they don’t spend 5 1/2 years on their undergraduate degree like I did. If you get them to take the AP classes and pay for the tests, the odds will increase that they wont.

Another helpful tactic is that the AP classes give you credit for many of the 101 classes. Many universities give incoming freshman first dibs at classes, then graduating seniors, then seniors, then juniors, and sophmores go last. If your AP kid uses their freshman year class selection trump card to take sophmore level courses, when they are toiling around trying to crash classes as a sophmore they won’t be taking the same classes as other sophmores. I remember having to pick up sophmore classes at junior colleges or at wacky hours just because of the overcrowding. Just getting classes was responsible for at lease one semester of dealay in my graduation. Beer, girls and fraternity life can be blamed for the rest.

[temeculaguy]

Ahhh, Tsuinami legends, what a fun topic. I used to believe in the legends when I first heard them 5 years ago. It was always around the corner, there was always an insider saying it was coming in the next few months. Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, Peter Schiff’s advice to buy Euros and Euro stocks, Mr. Mortgage, Spam and Ammo, I can go on and on. It gets more amusing the further we go and the less liklihood that any of it will happen.

Here’s the bedtime stories I like these days, at least these ones may happen.

Joule Unlimited making 60 cent domestic gasoline with algae. Plug in, sexy and fast cars that get 100 mpg equivalent. Cancer cures, baldness cures and human genome, gene therapy, non-surgical body part enhancements. All of which may never happen but will certainly happen before Santa Claus gets down my 18″ wide chimney or the Tsuinami arrives. Find a six year old, they might believe it, I’m done.

[temeculaguy]

That is a very fluid stage in life to be buying. Considering that it takes a few years just to recover transaction costs the only real reason to buy would be the fear of appreciation. I think we are a couple of years away from that. A lot can happen in the next 2 to 4 years for a couple in a new part of the country, with new jobs and new babies. Apprentices can be offered work in other areas once they complete their program or near completion, they are the first to lose their jobs, babies sometimes come in bunches, that 2 br condo will be outgrown when they have a 2 year old and kid #2 on the way. It’s very difficult to downsize from $1300 mo in SD for a 2br without it getting sketchy or adding a commute that will wipe out the savings in gas.

My advice, stay put and rent until some of the variables in life for them are settled and after those raises come, don’t bake advancement into the financial cake unless it’s an education prohibitive field (ie. MD, PHD) where there aren’t hundreds in line to take their place.

I bought a house when I was 22 or so, newly married, newish jobs, babies on the near term agenda. We had outgrown the place fairly soon and looking back, we would have been much better off if we had rented and bought 4 or 5 years later but kept an eye on the market conditions. That was 1991, market didnt take off again till 1998, we had plenty of time and now with the internet, it’s easier to see things happening than it was back then. It’s better to hold properties for a long time than change them every year or two. When kids are getting ready for school, careers are stable and the family size and income is more predictable, it’s so much easier to be able to predict what your housing needs for the next decade or so will be, very hard to do when you are starting out.

Final answer, stay in place, live cheap, give her the option of staying home if another kids comes along and as his raises kick in. Once the tubes are tied, do the math, then go house shopping.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=sdrealtor]TG
Question on hoa going down. Mine did also the first two years as the community was not built out. It went down as more homes were sold. Has yours gone down as the master association gains more members as the community gets built out? Or has it gone down while the community is already built out? Just wondering.[/quote]

Actually both. In 2008 and 2009 construction was completely halted, they sold off the models and I think let the lots go back to the bank about the time I moved in. Sometime in 2010 or maybe even early 2011, they started back up, but a different builder, actually a couple of different builders. So now the drops I assume are related to more people paying for the clubhouse, tennis, pool, those fixed costs that don’t go up much as they add users.

Each year i read that multiple page financial report they send but to be honest, I chuck it after one or two read in the bathroom so it’s hard for me to remember why exactly it went down whe they werent adding houses. They aren’t building very fast so I’d guess they have a few years to finish at this rate, I vaguely remember TemekuT telling me it should find it’s way to $75 or something like that at build out. I also read some e-mail about how they put cameras at the community center and let the security guard service go to save money or something like that. I also remember reading some hoa election flyer of some candidate saying they could lower it to $60 if they got rid of the paid full time staff at the center. But I like them being there cause I don’t need to haul pool floats, tennis balls or anything else, they check them out to you and they keep the teenagers in check, especially mine over the years. For me, I think it’s a freaking bargain at $100, so knowing it will keep going down is just a bonus.

I found a video from some realtor on youtbe

They have kid stuff, mommy and me, yoga, other classes, I never use much of that but it’s kinda cool and I dig how they have thumbprint readers to get in and still have a concierge or two at the desk when you get inside. People hate their hoa’s, I like mine. But then again I keep my yard nice and I’m the kind of guy that likes rules, yet I’ve never heard anyone complain about them being too strict. They did tell me to paint my fence once, but I needed to and they were noce enough to tell me where to buy the paint and what color it was (that’s one of the many little things you don’t get told when you buy a repo).

Everybody should find their beach in life, mine has an HOA.

[temeculaguy]

BG, they vary, from those purchased decades ago, to some being bought last year. Some are in more expensive areas than SD and some cheaper. There are to many housing variables and renter demographics to go into here. My point is that I have a certain level of experience beyond just one or two (but not hundreds) and that experience does not jive with some of the generalizations. It’s like what pri mentioned, prices find their true value often times, I believe the trick to good investments is catching them when they are undervalued. Being undervalued often requires other people being blinded by emotions or emotional advice. Horror stories are great for that.

As for right now, I believe the best return on ivestment is the best return on investment. In my area that happens to be condos. Two recent aquisitions in my area are a 150k townhouse that rents for 1500 while a 300k house rents for 2k. The condo carries 250 a month in hoa, but that includes trash, exterior water, landcaping (they actually have lawns), pool, gate and fire insurance for the structure. But the condo actually has a lower tax rate. The sfr has about 150 mo for those things individually (just gardner,trash and fire insurance but no pool or gate or water, actually i think its higher but lets say 150), so the roi could be calculated as if the sfr was two of the same condos and the net would be 2800 for the two condos and 1850 for the house for the same 300k investment.

You can dismiss it and say that sd is more expensive, true. but this same scenario exists in our more expensive areas in los angeles county and the cheaper areas in the desert. It works for the 1947 house, the 1980 condo and the 2008 house and condo I mentioned above. Your example I think is of a narrower focus, not sure there are that many people looking to spend 3k a month in rent to rent in an older area with no hoa so they can be by family. I’m sure there are some, but it’s a small part of the population. Unfortunately, those might be the people you know, so it seems like everyone. If those pencil out then they are a good investment. But if a similar condo returns more per dollar invested, then you can’t knock the condo. That’s all I’m saying. In some cases, the condo is overpriced compared to the sfr’s. But the actual type of housing doesn’t determine the quality of the investment, the math does.

Those san diego high rises with the $1,000 hoa’s, I’m not defending those whatsoever, I think I’d buy a north park sfr instead purely for the math, but I’d make sure th math made it better and not just my bias or perception or what people said at the barber shop.

Here’s another myth, that all hoa’s go up. TemekuT can vouch for this, our hoa does nothing but go down. For four years in a row that ive been here it has gone down, each year being $10 a month less than the previous. It’s the only bill I have that costs less each year.

[temeculaguy]

Earlier today I wrote a long post about how I disagreed with the assertion that condos were bad and fodder for rookies, then I deleted it before posting because it seemed fruitless, like arguing religion with someone. Now I read sdr posted essentially the same thing from a different area and I decided to weigh in. My experience is anectdotal at best, a family trust with about 25 years worth of rentals that I do not control exclusively but stay abreast of it’s performance. I pay attention because I’m a self admitted geek and because the responsibility is inevitiably heading my way in short order. 7 or 8 properties, mostly sfr’s, spanning multiple cities and counties in so cal. Some have been added and some sold off over the years but the best ones have actually been condos and the top of the heap have always had HOA’s, contrary to what some have said. I realize that a great deal of research went into the HOA prior to purchase but by and large in this small sample, HOA properties held up better and made more profit over time.

Before anyone quotes me and bolds my words, I acknowledge that there are exceptions and horror stories on both sides of the aisle, but sfr’s can be horrific and non hoa sfr’s seem to attract a certain demographic that make for bad tennants and those same tennants are repelled by rule laden hoa condos. Maybe it’s a factor, maybe not, but like sdr, my real world experience runs against the grain. When I analyze and investment property, there is little emotion and lots of math. In a primary residence, that is not the case. The roi often beats the sfr. In my own primary I have some regrets because I could have bought two townhouses for the same price, or three for the same “net cost” and right now I would be up more than 100k in equity over my current situation and be cash nuetral with my two rentals paying for the one I lived in and themselves. But emotion played a role, I wanted to be happy, I wanted a big house on the hill and I could afford it and I am happy. I just cringe when I see sweeping generalizations against condos and even more so against home owners associations.

I’ve never been involved in an hoa, never even been to a meeting, yet my experiences from a financial aspect have always been positive and my non hoa experiences been negative, including sfr’s. I liken it to people’s bias about race and sexual orientation in others, using a broad brush never paints an accurate picture. Actually, the very fact that some people listen to “pearls of wisdom” creates an opportunity for you to find the hidden gems. Every hidden gem I’ve ever found in both real estate and in life has been because I ignored conventional wisdom.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=walterwhite]On my next vacation I’m going to stay home again. In fact I’m not going anywhere but Los Angeles, San Diego or palm springs ever again if I can avoid it[/quote]

Is there a nice place in Palm Springs with a resort style salt water pool?[/quote]

It’s not salt water, but the renaissance esmerelda will fit the bill. San Beach for the kids to make castles, bar in the center of four pools and in summer they often put up a giant movie screen like adrive in that you can float on rafts from the pool and watch. Summer rates are good (spring is pricey), but it’s one of those places you can bring the kids and yet it doesnt feel like caddy day at bushwood country club.

If you do not have a family, the talent level is better at some of the other resorts as every woman in so cal who was augmented this winter usually gets her money’s worth in the next few weeks out in Palm Springs because it’s the first place to wear that bathing suit she’s wanted to wear for the last ten years. My buddies call it implants on parade. For that, avoid the condo places or any place with a waterslide, the hyatt next to the esmerelda has an adults only pool with cabanas for rent, the jw marriott is always loaded but has weaker pools. I could go on forever, but my choice is the Renaissance because any place that brings you drinks to your chair is my kinda place.

http://www.google.com/search?q=renaissance+esmeralda+pool&hl=en&client=firefox-a&hs=yHc&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&prmd=imvns&source=lnms&tbm=isch&ei=wtiHT5wU0cyJAv6uyZML&sa=X&oi=mode_link&ct=mode&cd=2&ved=0CCcQ_AUoAQ&biw=1067&bih=488

[temeculaguy]

20 story buildings there is a fantasy, splitting lots will just make it worse as 4-plexes pop up in backyards on the larger lots. I’m not faulting you brian, history and long term trends are not a young man’s game.

I’m with sdr on this one, an area’s mid to long term future depends on the original housing stock and the location, but the original housing stock is more important.

Here are some examples in San Diego. Kensington had nicer homes than the area between 40th and about 50th street. They were larger and better appointed than those between kensington and north park. Kensington homes were nice enough to refurbish and were not zoned for splitting and apartment mixes, thus it retained its appeal. A mile or two away it declined, because the original homes were crappier and the zoning looser.

Another example but of an entirely different theory is Rancho Sante Fe. It’s not ocean front, but strict zoning and large lots and nice original homes means it’s worth it to rebuild or refurbish. Same could be said of Mt. Helix and countless other areas where outdated but nice always beats outdated and crappy. Clairemont will have a more difficult time becoming hip and being redeveloped one house at a time as let’s say North Park or South park or mission hills, because those old houses by the park are worth saving, the post ww2 blah boxes in clairemont don’t have the same appeal. Changing the zoning will accelerate the decline, which is the opposite for an area like little italy, where density is a helper. Clairmeont’s best chance is to remain sfr’s, keep the zoning tight and in time it’s location may bail it out. What was once a suburb, may end up a rare sfr area that ends up so central once the county doubles in size. That’s it’s future, to hold fast to the zoning restrictions and allow the city to come to it. When this county is 4 or 5 million in size, if clairemont is still just sfr’s, it may become fertile ground for 3 wall knockdowns and redevelopment. It could be the next Costa Mesa. But it will take 20 years or so, but it very well may happen. The next level up, tierrasanta, mm, etc. are larger and won’t ever fall as hard, they will keep chugging along, while linda vista will never be cool, cause it never was and the density zoning cripples it.

To see similar examples ahead in the timeline you have to look to L.A., areas that split lots and mixed in apartments went to hell, while old suburbs that held firm on zoning saw revitalization once the city grew past them and they became central without actually moving. Zoning restrictions may bother some idealists, but there are so many examples of how it actually promotes redevelopment. Don’t attract developers, stand firm until you become their only option.

[temeculaguy]

I’m afraid it’s not coming and here’s my reasoning. I golf with a group of guys who for the most part do not follow anything economic other than sound bytes from the MSM. I don’t divulge my hidden passion for geekonomics or my role on this site going back to the bubble. This golf crowd is my barometer for what the barely informed crowd thinks. In 2007 this crowd might have told me that buying with a neg am loan was a good idea, yet they wouldn’t use the phrase “neg-am” because they don’t care about it that much, it would have been a lender phrase like “pick a payment.” Same crowd might have suggested buying gold at 2k an ounce. We all have friends like this, they are my friends, not my economic advisers. They do however know their sports and their beer and have an appreciation for the female form, so they are still great company.

Well, last week, while golfing, one of them says a big wave of foreclosures is coming and the others agree. I remained silent. Reading this thread, it occurs to me that the wave isn’t coming, in fact the opposite will probably happen and I need no further evidence other than once anything economic gets to, let’s say the news segment on an fm radio morning drive show, then it’s already past it’s value. When the masses think something, it’s too late or it’s wrong. It’s not their fault. I read for three hours tonight, but I would not be able to tell you who is still in the hunt on american idol or survivor, I may see letterman or a news clip showing the winner or the finalists for 1 minute, but that’s the extent of my knowledge, whatever I noticed on accident. Same goes for inventory and my golf buddies.

[temeculaguy]

The abnormally low interest rates are one of the primary factors for this phenomena, nobody is disputing that. While it’s been discussed and proven that rates don’t necessarily have a proportional cause and effect on prices that logic would suggest, it has everything to do with rent vs purchase ratios. The good news is they are backwards beneficial, meaning that people who purchased at higher rates can refi, people purchasing once the rates have risen cannot. Low rates benefit or save existing owners, but there’s no guarantee for the future owners to benefit.

For instance, my chosen zip code was a little ahead of the decline so more than three years ago the rent vs. buy threshold was crossed. Even though I jumped in when rates were about 6.5, I was able to refi to a lower rate, making the advantage even better. If you own, it’s better to guess the rates incorrectly than the prices. If they go down, chase them and get a fixed, if they go up, sit back and open some wine, it’s pretty simple stuff.

The article for me explained sheeple mentality and defines piggington beliefs. The masses rushed to buy when owning cost twice what renting did because it was the cool thing to do, piggs didn’t. Now that buying is on par or cheaper than renting in many areas, piggs are buying in droves and the masses are afraid of real estate because it’s not cool. The masses have the fresh memory of how people got burned in R/E, but we know why they got burned, unfortunately they probably will never figure it out. It’s math homework for grown ups and it gives people a headache, they’d rather listen to co-workers and relatives than do the homework.

When you boil down the real reason for buying a primary residence, it’s not an investment, it’s an inflation hedge, a way to fix your rent. The way our economy works it’s rigged against any sustained deflation, inflation over time is the system. Find a 60 or 70 year old lifetime renter (not a strategic renter like most of us) and ask them if they can think of a time in their life in hindsight they wish they would have bought. 97% of them will cite at least one example and of course 3% of the population is crazy. I firmly believe that I will look back in 20 years and wish I had more access to capital right now and I had purchased more r/e, but then again maybe I’m in that 3% that’s crazy.

[temeculaguy]

paramount, not sure who you used and this isn’t neccesarily an endorsement but I have relatives who have been very happy with this local company and have used them for years.

http://www.sdlrealestate.com/?IDXSESS=b4oala4lscf6722ukt3pvcsg43

However I’ve read bad reviews on yelp, and i remember reading bad reviews on yelp when my relative was contemplating using them (most of the complaints back then were tennants mad because after a few years of paying rent on time they were thrown out quickly for not paying, as if they felt their history gave them the right to not pay). But I just read a bad one from an owner who is planning on selling and not getting the service they want because they aren;t using them as the listing agency (you can’t make everyone happy). My folks just switched from doing it themselves to a management company and they are completely happy, but they were too nice IMO and let everything slide forever, including rent (they didn’t use the company I linked because their rentals are out of town and low end, that comapny doesn’t seem to handle those less desirable towns). They still love their management comapany. I agree, a licensed realtor is better, everyone I know that uses a management co uses a realtor/management co. Hopefully you find a better one, but I wouldn’t forfeit any $, just switch when you can.

[temeculaguy]

I think in some areas of life, simplifying is good, but not so when it comes to phones. Go ahead, pick out your casket, not me. My employer provides me with a blackberry and I hate it, I often forward those call to my iphone. The iphone is simple in many ways, having to text on a flip phone pushing numbers on a number pad multiple times till the correct letter comes up is not my idea of simple, having to enter a password or push “7” to delete a message or be forced to listen to all of my messages to get to the one I want is not simple, it’s a pain in the ass. Don’t run from tech, embrace it. I even have my car’s idrive all figured out and I love it now. I hate driving without nav/live traffic and estimated time of arrival, it sucks. Anything but FIOS feels like dial up to me. Go ahead, let the world get away from you, I will be that guy in the old folks home with 700 channels of porn and sports on his ipad while you read the newspaper and complain about the government. Let’s see who’s room the nurses hang out in.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=paramount]BMW[/quote]
+1[/quote]

+2, and I’m blaming you both if I ever change my mind.

In addition, my 2011 likes are: SDSU basketball games live, amy’s organic soup and frozen foods, unsweetened almond milk, game of thrones on hbo, “the collective” wine bar in temecula (a bunch of mom and pop winemakers too small to have their own tasting rooms so they have a joint one) and probably the most important, getting out of my comfort zone as far as my personal life is concerned. Come to think of it, despite it being remembered as the great recession, I really liked 2011, I could do this every year.

[temeculaguy]

brian, you’ve defended every allegation regarding cars and your views except your three strikes rule. I wasn’t joking, do you know why I said it? Because relationships tend to change our perspective, even if they don’t last (which they usually don’t and that’s ok) we come away a slighlty different person. I grew up a conservative republican, but after a falling in love with a few wild eyed leftists, I became a moderate, a populist if you will. I grew up a bit of a homophobe, then fell for a girl who was bi sexual, it changed my view, a view I’ll never forget, but I digress. I was once somewhat of an elitist, I grew up with money, then I fell for a girl who lives paycheck to paycheck, who parked her car in different places to dodge the repo men. I changed again. I used to judge a woman by her shape, then a fat girl came a long and was better in bed than all who had preceded her, I changed again. I grew up in pretty much white suburbia, minorities made me nervous, till I fell for some, then I became color blind.

You think because you are liberal, environmentally aware and pregressive that you are past all that, but your bias is just the same as mine was, just in the opposite direction. It would really help you to fall in love with someone who is different than you. Get rid of the three strikes rule or at least suspend it. Save time, combine them all into the same woman. In the end, you’ll see that everybody is the same and maybe you can become like svelte and I a decade or two ahead of schedule. I actually think you will be pleasantly surprised with your new view of the world.

[temeculaguy]

I like to think of life like a bike ride. The first half is all up hill. While you are working hard to get up the hill you think everyone else should work just as hard as you, that the hard part is the good part, that your body will benefit from the exercise.

Then somewhere around 40 when you get to the top of the hill, give or take a few years, you change your perspective. Maybe it’s a few friends your age getting sick, maybe you go to one too many funerals, maybe it’s that every day you look in the mirror or try to play a sport you used to excel at and realize your body is slowly decaying, but it’s something. It makes you realize you are on the back 9 of life. It’s then you decide that you aren’t going to pedal anymore, you are going to coast downhill and enjoy the ride.

Like others, I’ve always been a car guy, even when I had very little money, I shined my beater up real good. I actually was confused by the person with the awesome car that was dirty and had signs of misuse. The guy who orders the best wine in the place and is chewing gum while he’s drinking it, or the guy with the hottest woman on his arm and he never looks at her. I thought to myself “I’ll be different when my day comes” and I wasn’t. It took time to appreciate things, to truly feel content.

So yes, some of us are at the crest of the hill, we’ve decided it’s not worth it to try and win the race, in fact it’s not a race at all. So were at the top, stopped, admiring the view and we’ve decided we have enough to get us the rest of the way. So we are going to do whatever we have a passion for, be it cars, wine, sports or women (or in my case, all of the above). And I’m done pedaling, I’m done judging, I’m done worrying about what others think (well put svelte) and I’m certainly done with worrying about energy policy and what other people drive. You change the world, I already did, now I’m going to enjoy it.

p.s. brian, I have a solution to help you gain wisdom quickly and it may pay dividends to your love life as well. Find a woman who is everything you dislike, for example and uneducated woman who drives a monster truck, lives in a trailer or was raised in one, eats processed food and smokes. Even better if she’s a little chunky, since you dislike fat people. Someone without a passport, who dislikes other countries and cities. She votes republican, has tattoos and I’m thinking at least one illegitimate kid as well. Then look past it all, find out who she is inside, give her an honest chance and fall madly in love with her. You might just find she’s a better person and loves you more than any woman you have ever met, especially those who are just like you. No matter what happens, even if it ends badly, you’ll be better person for it. You”l learn you can appreciate someone without changing them. You will get a ten year fast forward in your journey and learn that everything you used to think about people was wrong. You will reach that conclusion eventually but it will take many friends, girlfriends and experiences to get there, this will just speed up the process. Trust me.

[Author]

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