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April 9, 2012 at 11:01 AM #19680April 9, 2012 at 11:20 AM #741300anParticipant
Where’s the spring inventory?
April 9, 2012 at 12:23 PM #741301lpjohnsoParticipantIt’s pretty shocking.
April 9, 2012 at 2:29 PM #741309desmondParticipantHow about some of the experts on this site come up with the reasons there is no inventory. I have heard for years that people would sell when home prices go back up, yet there is no inventory?
April 9, 2012 at 2:52 PM #741310The-ShovelerParticipantDisclaimer No expert ,
If another down turn were to occur in the economy then I think there will be more distressed homes on the market.
I think we would need to get within 10-15% of peak before you get current non distressed owners to voluntarily come off the bench in mass. The problem with that is the few distressed homes that do trickle onto the market keep the comps down so there would be a lot of difficultly getting someone qualified for a loan at that amount.Builders same, I think they need to clear 15-20 percent or so after land/entitlements building costs etc… Before they will come off the bench as well.
April 9, 2012 at 3:04 PM #741311treehuggerParticipantAs a potential buyer right now it is tough! Prices are good, interest rates are great, yet inventory sucks! I hope once we get out of this feeding frenzy spring season things will balance out.
If it is a regular sale-turnkey property it goes pending within hours of hitting the mls. I saw a house that was fantastic, regular sale folks had owned it for 10+ years beautiful, definitely over all the comps for the neighborhood, went pending with multiple full price offers in days. If it is overpriced and needs some work it sits….we put in an offer a few weeks back on a foreclosure, bank countered at full list price. We walked. Now bank has reduced the price significantly and we are going for it again.
I am continuing to stalk my favorite neighborhoods….really want that phenom deal in Ocean Hills (92056) or 92081….takes patience, which is not a virtue I possess.
April 9, 2012 at 3:13 PM #741312CoronitaParticipant[quote=treehugger]As a potential buyer right now it is tough! Prices are good, interest rates are great, yet inventory sucks! I hope once we get out of this feeding frenzy spring season things will balance out.
If it is a regular sale-turnkey property it goes pending within hours of hitting the mls. I saw a house that was fantastic, regular sale folks had owned it for 10+ years beautiful, definitely over all the comps for the neighborhood, went pending with multiple full price offers in days. If it is overpriced and needs some work it sits….we put in an offer a few weeks back on a foreclosure, bank countered at full list price. We walked. Now bank has reduced the price significantly and we are going for it again.
I am continuing to stalk my favorite neighborhoods….really want that phenom deal in Ocean Hills (92056) or 92081….takes patience, which is not a virtue I possess.[/quote]
Sigh. never mind…
April 9, 2012 at 3:23 PM #741314SD RealtorParticipantI know that what I have stated is that in 2012 we were going to see quite extraordinary measures that the govt was going to implement in the face of moral hazard. That these measures would serve to keep distressed inventory at a trickle. Furthermore prices are not even close to coming up to what they need to be to get the majority of the seriously underwater folks off the pine and to sell their homes. So we are in no mans land. As long as there is hope for market improvement then the distressed pipe will still drip. Once again, we need some sort of catalyst. Hopefully with the settlement of robosigning we may see some increased reo inventory. However the SD County submarket is tough right now.
Maybe Markmax’s tsunami will come ashore… my bet is not.
Welcome to market manipulation 101.
Hope you have enjoyed the course.
April 9, 2012 at 3:24 PM #741313bearishgurlParticipant[quote=desmond]How about some of the experts on this site come up with the reasons there is no inventory. I have heard for years that people would sell when home prices go back up, yet there is no inventory?[/quote]
OK, desmond, I’ll take the bait ;=]
I’ve stated this before here, but I’ll reiterate with a slightly different slant …
I don’t think “people” (longtime owners of prime properties in the best hands) are necessarily looking for 2005-2006 to repeat itself. They are more concerned with putting their well-maintained properties on the market (that they may have many thousands of dollars of “sweat equity” invested in over the years) at 1999 to 2002 prices in order to even get any offers! Most youngish buyers today not only want everything “perfect” but if they have school-age children, the schools in seller’s attendance area must be “top notch” as well. If there are anything this buyer pool perceives as “flaws” in seller’s property even if it isn’t really a “flaw” (such as a T-lock shingle roof in those areas where they are common), they are believed to just want to “lowball” even a circa 2002 asking price!
I think “equity-sellers” would list if they didn’t think it would be a waste of time in that they believe they would only get offers reflecting their property’s value 10-15 years ago. 1999-2002 was long before routine “loose lending” led to the millenium boom and subsequent crash, yet many areas’ recent sales prices seem to have “over-corrected” to this era, mainly due to lazy (and ignorant, obviously out-of-area) lenders have been foregoing so much debt of late to consummate a short sale that they allowed their deadbeat homedebtors to sell at prices well under the current market.
The current sentiment out there among “would-be sellers” is that the vast majority of current buyers (with families) only want a deeply discounted bargain, preferably with as low a PPSF as possible. This seems to be THE most important buying consideration (even if the buyers don’t really need it, won’t be able to use it and can’t afford to furnish it)! They want this so much that they are often VERY flexible on zip code and area, even at the expense of greatly increasing their daily commute! Thus, they end up migrating to areas with heavy distress (where larger homes were built during the millenium boom and originally “creatively financed”) where they can find a multitude of distressed sellers to sell to them at a deep discount (w/their lender(s) permission, of course). However, it’s only a “deep discount” of millenium boom pricing (which was grossly inflated due to loose lending practices) so is not really “discounted” but listed at what it SHOULD have sold for in the first place. The “perception” of a “deep discount” in distressed areas is there among buyers, however.
All along, these buyers could have considered an older property in a GREAT low-or-no-distress location with a motivated seller who would have been willing to sell at 2003 pricing but however well-located and convenient it might be, alas, it is probably too “flawed” for the above reasons.
So the longtime “equity owners” just keep their properties off the market (even rent them out if need be) to await a time where all the “perceived deep discounts” are gone. Until there is again a preponderance of “equity” or “traditional” listings over “distressed” listings (my guess is 80% (equity)/20% distressed or better), these “potential sellers” will not list. They have these choices because they have been “prudent” and played by the rules over the years or own free and clear.
April 9, 2012 at 3:32 PM #741316bearishgurlParticipant[quote=treehugger]As a potential buyer right now it is tough! Prices are good, interest rates are great, yet inventory sucks! I hope once we get out of this feeding frenzy spring season things will balance out.
If it is a regular sale-turnkey property it goes pending within hours of hitting the mls. I saw a house that was fantastic, regular sale folks had owned it for 10+ years beautiful, definitely over all the comps for the neighborhood, went pending with multiple full price offers in days. If it is overpriced and needs some work it sits….we put in an offer a few weeks back on a foreclosure, bank countered at full list price. We walked. Now bank has reduced the price significantly and we are going for it again.
I am continuing to stalk my favorite neighborhoods….really want that phenom deal in Ocean Hills (92056) or 92081….takes patience, which is not a virtue I possess.[/quote]
treehugger, I really think you will be able to land yourself a deal on something you like in O’side or Vista. If you don’t mind my asking, do you (or your spouse) work at Camp Pendleton?
April 9, 2012 at 3:35 PM #741317CoronitaParticipantYou know. I want to say i think part of the reason why there is an appetite locally for homes is the stock market is (was) doing pretty peachy for some of the local companies. What will be interesting in the next two months, if we see things tank, I’m sort of thinking it would shake out *some* of the buyers… But then again, the irony is that if it tanks a lot, it might end up shaking out a lot more buyers, including me.
So we have the “frenzy” paradox. We’re no better off than most everyone else (although some of us like to think we are).
It reminds of folks trying to buy real estate in Manhanttan. When WS bonuses are great, everyone’s buying. When WS bonuses suck donkey butt, no one’s buying… Funny how it works.
April 9, 2012 at 3:54 PM #741319The-ShovelerParticipantWhen the builders build in the area you are looking, what are the prices they are asking and what features are they including?
There is your answer as to when current non-distressed owners will come off the bench and decide to list IMO.
April 9, 2012 at 4:14 PM #741320sdrealtorParticipantPrice declines have stopped, there are some signs prices could start rising (and people have seen how much and how fast they can rise) rents are rising, people who needed to get out already did for the most part, most people with equity are happy where they are…..why sell?
April 9, 2012 at 4:16 PM #741322bearishgurlParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]Price declines have stopped, there are some signs prices could start rising (and people have seen how and how fast they can rise) rents are rising, people who needed to get out already did for the most part, most people with equity are happy where they are…..why sell?[/quote]
I understand all this, but am STILL seeing properties that have now had more than a dozen TS postponements. Two of these have opening bids equal to 2x current market value! One has to wonder why the affected lender has chosen to let the situation get this far out of hand.
I’m also seeing NOD’s filed between one and two years ago that couldn’t have possibly been cured/redeemed and where no NOS has yet been filed. It is worrisome to me what may be going on here, ESP since I have knowledge that some of the particular homedebtors in question have little to no real income to speak of.
I often wonder how many of these older NOD’s there are out there filed on properties in which the current notes(s) secured by TD’s cannot successfully be modified. More specifically, I wonder at what degree of being “shafted” by game-playing homedebtors will these affected lenders finally call it a day and do what they should have done all along … that is, foreclose.
I wish the law in CA provided for mandatory recordation of mortgage loan mods. This would clear up a lot of public confusion as to how MUCH “distress” actually still remains in the RE market.
April 9, 2012 at 7:01 PM #741330SD RealtorParticipantI would not be as concerned with how much distress is still out there. I would be much more concerned with how the govt lets/encourages the lenders to not do a damn thing about it.
The problem is not the quantity. The problem is that govt has decided that impeding the process that was supposed to be in place to liquidate the defaults was not acceptable.
It has been decided that the quantity is acceptable even if it takes 5, 10, maybe 20 years to liquidate it.
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