Where is the inventory, where is the inventory, where is the inventory…

[ocrenter]

[quote=sdduuuude]Some thoughts to explain why I don’t know:

Been hearing about the Tsunami so long, one has to wonder if it is ever coming. Is it a myth or the boy who cried wolf ?

A hold on foreclosure activity due to robosigning/legal activity/attempts to “keep homeowners in their home” last year would explain why now instead of last year.

Been hearing Tsunami warnings on MSM (and TG’s friends) lately, for sure. That suggests it is not going to happen.

Many say short sales will take over the market rather than foreclosures.

I think banks are struggling to recover from the credit crisis. Their position using mark-to-market can’t be good. They’ll have to dribble this stuff out over time unless one bank panics.

If there is a tsunami coming, the lender who panics first wins.

A guy I know and trust said he has insider friends at a biiiiiig bank. They have issued a tsunami warning. That’s from inside a bank. Interesting.

Right before a tsunami hits, the tide retreats rapidly. Currently, inventory is retreating rapidly. Not sure I put much faith in this comparison, but it is interesting.[/quote]

The whole dribble theory implies that the banks are actually smart enough to coordinate a planned system of gradual release of homes to control flow of foreclosures to stabilize prices.

That is putting a whole lot of faith into the banks that they are smart and capable enough to do that.

Another thing is, if they can be that effective controlling supply, then why lose control in LV, AZ, and FL?

Plus CA is a non judicial state when it comes to foreclosure, so I doubt there’s a huge logjam of homes waiting to be foreclosed. When it comes to major population centers in CA, I think underwater owners have come to realize that there are enough government help with low interest rate and inflation that by holding on, they will eventually be “even.”

[desmond]

Call it a ATM, remodel, updgrade, etc. they put a ton of money into the house.

[sdrealtor]

Paid 470 in 1996 and easily have 130k of value in improvements a typical CV buyer would appreciate. That’s a roughly 600k cost basis from an overshot bottom 16 years ago. Give it an average of 4% appreciation per year and rule of 72 says its a double. Give it less than 4% and it still isn’t far off. I say it sells near the bottom of their range without much trouble.

[Coronita]

[quote=ocrenter][quote=flu]Well, in CV

How about a 2800sqft home priced at $438/sqft?

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-120019189-5113_Chelterham_Terrace_San_Diego_CA_92130

It does have a big lot though…

Barring the person didn’t ATM the hell out of his/her home, the irony to this is this guy/gal can just sit and wait.. Checkout on the sales history back to 1996….[/quote]

This one is very nicely upgraded. And canyon lot as well. Someone prob will go for it at that price. Although you do have to wonder how often the pool will be used, it is CV after all. Only 210 actives in 92130 per sdlookup, ouch.[/quote]

Yup. I know… Just showing you what comes up when somethings gets available. 210 actives includes a lot which are attached and not SFH. And it also includes stuff that is in Del Mar Mesa and the likes (over $2 million homes). There’s are 20 or so of these listings..So…Inventory is pretty bad right now…

I punched in 92126. Not much is coming up in the form of attached rentals, at least unless someone is seeing something I’m not…

Wait and see game at the point for the trade me up or rental property.

[Coronita]

This one didn’t take long to go pending…

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-120016822-5526_Brettonwood_Ct_San_Diego_CA_92130

Again, looks like original home owner bought back in 1999.

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