RealtyTrac on Low Inventory Problem

[Jazzman]

“I speak with real estate agents all across the country and every one of them says that banks are deliberately withholding bank-owned properties to drive up prices — they hope — and create the illusion of a market turnaround.”
May 1, 2012
By Octavio Nuiry, Staff Writer

http://www.realtytrac.com/content/news-and-opinion/bank-owned-property-inventory-withheld-by-lenders–bank-owned-homes-for-sale-7176

This writer is obviously a dissident and will very likely be arrested by the RE police for being unpatriotic.

[sdrealtor]

Now you beleive RE agents when they are saying what you want to beleive. They arent withholding bank owned properties. Its easy for me to search the tax records to show they dont own them. What they are doing is slowly working through the distress and not foreclosing. You are listening to a few hungry realtors who are as clueless now as they were before.

[bearishgurl]

I believe this “shadow inventory” you speak IS there but has not yet been foreclosed upon (so it is not yet “bank owned”). A NOD may have been filed and even a NOS (which was not followed through). Many FB’s are squatting and some are making very low payments in trial mods to delay foreclosure (which they will likely not stay in for the long term due to never building equity). The “FB trial-mod group” and the “FB squatting group” will continue the charade as long as their lender(s) allow it because it is FREE or VERY CHEAP for them to do so.

So, yes, the lenders ARE “holding back” but they have yet to take title to these properties and thus the responsibility for all their cleanup, maintenance and taxpaying headaches.

Unless these lenders are hopelessly incompetent, they must also realize that many of their FB’s aren’t paying taxes or hazard insurance premiums either, so if something happens to their “collateral” while still “owned” by their FB, they are SOL. And, of course, they’re going to be left in the end holding the bag for back taxes and penalties :=0

[Jazzman]

[quote=sdrealtor]Now you beleive RE agents when they are saying what you want to beleive. They arent withholding bank owned properties. Its easy for me to search the tax records to show they dont own them. What they are doing is slowly working through the distress and not foreclosing. You are listening to a few hungry realtors who are as clueless now as they were before.[/quote]
What I want to believe? Why should I believe you anymore than them? You are also broker. Yes? Why should I care, I left CA and bought elsewhere? I do, however, abhor dishonesty.

What’s more important, is I hardly think RealtyTrac would make such a statement if there weren’t some truth to it. If there is price fixing going on, it can be prosecuted under federal law.

[desmond]

That is really my thing too Jazz, I really should care less about CA RE, not going to buy in CA again, but it is the constant spin that RE is such a great investment (or now a place to live)no matter what happens.

[outtamojo]

[quote=Jazzman][quote=sdrealtor]Now you beleive RE agents when they are saying what you want to beleive. They arent withholding bank owned properties. Its easy for me to search the tax records to show they dont own them. What they are doing is slowly working through the distress and not foreclosing. You are listening to a few hungry realtors who are as clueless now as they were before.[/quote]
What I want to believe? Why should I believe you anymore than them? You are also broker. Yes? Why should I care, I left CA and bought elsewhere? I do, however, abhor dishonesty.

What’s more important, is I hardly think RealtyTrac would make such a statement if there weren’t some truth to it. If there is price fixing going on, it can be prosecuted under federal law.[/quote]

Sooner or later those banks will be forced to unload their inventory and coming tsunami sounds pretty frightening – I better buy a subscription to RealtyTrac so I can find out what’s happening in my neigbohood.
All kidding aside, I find it distressing that RDN and MTG have sold off to near 52 week lows again.

[CA renter]

[quote=Jazzman][quote=sdrealtor]Now you beleive RE agents when they are saying what you want to beleive. They arent withholding bank owned properties. Its easy for me to search the tax records to show they dont own them. What they are doing is slowly working through the distress and not foreclosing. You are listening to a few hungry realtors who are as clueless now as they were before.[/quote]
What I want to believe? Why should I believe you anymore than them? You are also broker. Yes? Why should I care, I left CA and bought elsewhere? I do, however, abhor dishonesty.

What’s more important, is I hardly think RealtyTrac would make such a statement if there weren’t some truth to it. If there is price fixing going on, it can be prosecuted under federal law.[/quote]

Totally with you on that, Jazzman, and like you, we’ve already bought, so not just being “bitter renters” at this point.

Of course, over the past ~5 years we’ve seen non-stop attempts by the Fed/govt to fix prices at unsustainable levels. Some of their attempts have been more successful than others, but everything was directed at keeping housing prices higher than they would have been if things had returned to “normal.”

[temeculaguy]

Ahhh, Tsuinami legends, what a fun topic. I used to believe in the legends when I first heard them 5 years ago. It was always around the corner, there was always an insider saying it was coming in the next few months. Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, Peter Schiff’s advice to buy Euros and Euro stocks, Mr. Mortgage, Spam and Ammo, I can go on and on. It gets more amusing the further we go and the less liklihood that any of it will happen.

Here’s the bedtime stories I like these days, at least these ones may happen.

Joule Unlimited making 60 cent domestic gasoline with algae. Plug in, sexy and fast cars that get 100 mpg equivalent. Cancer cures, baldness cures and human genome, gene therapy, non-surgical body part enhancements. All of which may never happen but will certainly happen before Santa Claus gets down my 18″ wide chimney or the Tsuinami arrives. Find a six year old, they might believe it, I’m done.

[sdrealtor]

Wait until the data comes out and catches up with what is going on now. Prices are rising and it is real not bubblicious. Yesterday I saw a property go into escrow with 10+ offers the first week. Was priced at the top of the comps and it went 10 to 20K above asking to an all cash buyer with no contingencies. Last week I saw 2 houses go into escrow about $50K above asking prices. Today I saw a junky REO close $30K above asking price and I thought the asking price was too high. Buckle up folks.

[The-Shoveler]

[img_assist|nid=16238|title=|desc=In Joule Unlimited, 100MPG Fords & A Tsuinami of cheap coastal homes.|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=75]

I do believe the banks are holding back foreclosures, I just think that if and when the economy gets on a roll, the release will have minimal impact.

[Fearful]

[quote=sdrealtor] Buckle up folks.[/quote]

I wish I understood better what is going on.

My best guess is that we will see a spike this year that will encourage fence-sitting sellers, both private parties and banks, into the market and the flat to downward slog will resume in late 2012.

[Fearful]

[quote=The-Shoveler]I do believe the banks are holding back foreclosures, I just think that if and when the economy gets on a roll, the release will have minimal impact.[/quote]
Too many headwinds for the economy to “get on a roll”. The best that can be hoped for is a maintenance of historical growth rates – which has already been achieved. This is about as good as it’s gonna get for a while.

[sdrealtor]

If we see a spike it will take a nice chunk of underwater homeowners back above water. It was also give the underwater folks considering strategic default a reason to hang on. Things are changing and I am surprised by it but what I see looks very real. Strong buyers with great jobs, income and assets are having a tough time finding homes to buy. That demand starts piling and who knows where we go.

Im not predicting a raging bull market with massive increases but I’m pretty certain what will commonly be referred to as a bottom is well behind us. Better deals are not ahead. Maybe better homes but not better deals.

[Author]

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