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SK in CV
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]Shoveler, you are relying on the Fed to act again. In fact they are about to expand their balance sheet again. Do they know something we don’t?[/quote]
The fed is NOT going to expand their balance sheet any time soon. Not a single open market committee member suggested anything like further expansion. They will continue data dependent contraction indefinitely.
Participant[quote=spdrun]
Edit: apparently there have been proposals to develop this land, but have been tied up by NIMBYs. Will Qualcomm really be much better in this respect, especially since there may be fuel oil contamination on the land from the nearby tank farm?[/quote]I grew up right above that Adobe Falls land, possibly in the house closest to the falls. My mother lived there for 50 years. While there rumors every few years of possible development for the property, it never got as far as a request for input from the land owners around the property. I have a vague recollection of the army corp of engineers, which has some authority over wetlands, killing a few proposals.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]
I don’t mind Kavanaugh overturning Roe v Wade and other socially significant rulings such as gay marriage. The silver lining is that as the court gets more detached from the people, voters will need to get off their asses and vote.[/quote]
It must be nice having that kinda privilege.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]Will I be proven right? Time will tell
Top Business Economists Predict U.S. Could Face Recession in 2020
http://fortune.com/2018/06/04/recession-2020-trump-trade/Monkeys could fly in 2020.
ParticipantHere’s two predictors. Rising initial unemployment claims. Falling new home starts. They have not been 100% reliable, but have dropped significantly before most of the last 8 recessions. There are others.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]SK, looking down memory lane at past recessions, excluding the 2008 Great Recession and the 2001 9/11 induced recession, what leading indicators of recession were obviously missed by observers?[/quote]
Quite a few didn’t miss it. Housing starts and initial unemployment claims. That recession was triggered by a black swan event. (liquidity disappeared) It would have happened irrespective of that event.
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]
I saw this morning that China was letting US soy shipments in (well at least some).[/quote]
Sure, at prices 25% lower to US farmers than 2 years ago.
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]You would never know it from being at the Temecula Costco yesterday, that place was just crazy mobbed with customers with over stuffed carts.[/quote]
That’s not exactly a leading economic indicator, but it’s closer to what I’m looking for. Retail sales are holding steady. Job growth continues. No changes to employment. Layoffs at all time lows. There’s nothing in real estate that screams recession, though there are plenty of areas that require close monitoring. Those are some of the things that are predictive of a recession and almost invariably show up well before GDP turns negative.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]
So I stick to my 2020 recession prediction.
1) we are due due for a recession
2) the policies, from deficit to trade wars, to confusion and lack of clarity, will help usher in a recession.[/quote]You may be right, mostly because 2020 is a long way off. Another black swan event is as likely now as it’s ever been. I’m not aware of any leading indicators that point in the direction of a looming recession.
Participant[quote=EconProf]More good news today resulting from the strong economy:
Unemployment rate fell from 4% to 3.9%
157,000 new jobs. (This is slightly below expectations, but past months’ figures were revised upward by 96,000, so total gain is 253,000).
Big increase in workers moving from part time to full time.
Number of officially unemployed, defined as out of work and actively looking for work, declined by 284,000.
The “quit rate”, voluntary separation by employees, highest in recorded history. This indicates workers’ confidence in finding another job.[/quote]
Great job continuing the trends of the prior administration. It would be nicer if new jobs could match any of the numbers from the previous 5 years, but still, overall, a pretty decent report.
April 6, 2018 at 9:55 PM in reply to: Why Are States So Strapped for Cash? There Are Two Big Reasons #809878Participant[quote=harvey][quote=SK in CV]California has a pretty significant surplus.[/quote]
…as well as significant debt/unfunded liabilities.[/quote]
Debt per capita is pretty much in the middle of the pack for all states. Unfunded liabilities are probably getting better, the recent change in assumptions notwithstanding. Participants are kicking in substantially more. There is light at the end of the tunnel. It’s just a really long tunnel.
April 4, 2018 at 8:42 AM in reply to: The stock market is tanking, we should be happy right???? #809823Participant[quote=flu]futures way down with trade war escalation.
stabilization of the markets my ass.
Gold on the other hand….[/quote]
Gold has another thing causing influence that it never had before. Global instability always has meant a rush to gold. Probably still the case, but the crypto tank has coincided with the run up the last 90 days.
April 4, 2018 at 8:28 AM in reply to: Why Are States So Strapped for Cash? There Are Two Big Reasons #809822ParticipantCalifornia has a pretty significant surplus.
ParticipantOPM. Government builds it. Gives it to private industry (I dunno, maybe to Ivankaco or something) to make lots of money and exploit the taxpayers.
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