Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › The stock market is tanking, we should be happy right????
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utcsox.
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February 6, 2018 at 7:46 AM #22514February 6, 2018 at 8:23 AM #809189
Anonymous
GuestLook at the five year chart and the past few days is not even visible.
February 6, 2018 at 8:46 AM #809190The-Shoveler
ParticipantLOL I am still waiting for 5% FDIC CD’s to make a comeback.
I am mostly out of the market just because of my age.
The decline so far is interesting but not enough to get me excited yet and I don’t really think the market will sell off enough to get me back in.
(The economy I think is still doing fairly well yet).
Dow down 40-50% maybe I could get excited to put more money in (even despite my age).
February 6, 2018 at 8:51 AM #809191scaredyclassic
ParticipantI’m excited.
February 6, 2018 at 7:46 PM #809193moneymaker
ParticipantI’m happy that I’m not in but I may get back in if it drops more! My issue is that I’m talking about 401k here and I know bonds are not a good place to be either when rates are rising. I’m starting to think about retirement so I disagree with Vanguard that I should be 65% in. Perhaps later this week I will get 50% in, we’ll see.
February 7, 2018 at 10:32 PM #809212kev374
Participantc’mon man… 7% decline is not tanking, it went up that much just in Jan, mathematically it has to correct otherwise what kind of annual return are you expecting.. 150%?
February 8, 2018 at 12:46 AM #809213Coronita
Participant[quote=kev374]c’mon man… 7% decline is not tanking, it went up that much just in Jan, mathematically it has to correct otherwise what kind of annual return are you expecting.. 150%?[/quote]
if you bought into the indexes at the beginning of the year, you are now negative . 7% is a lot. it’s slightly above a reasonable annual return.
February 8, 2018 at 9:52 AM #809216Coronita
ParticipantDow down another 500+pts… getting close to 10% correction….how are folks feeling now? housing doesn’t even correct this fast.
February 8, 2018 at 9:56 AM #809217carlsbadworker
Participant[quote=flu]Dow down another 500+pts… getting close to 10% correction….how are folks feeling now? housing doesn’t even correct this fast.[/quote]
500pts is a tiny blip in the long view:
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
We are about 50% over-valued according to the chart above, so wake us up when you have 20 days like this in a roll.
February 8, 2018 at 12:40 PM #809220carlsbadworker
Participant[quote=flu]Dow down another 500+pts… getting close to 10% correction….how are folks feeling now? housing doesn’t even correct this fast.[/quote]
There are a few individual stocks that are dropping close to my buying range after today. Index still seems too expensive for me.
February 8, 2018 at 12:58 PM #809221Coronita
Participant[quote=carlsbadworker][quote=flu]Dow down another 500+pts… getting close to 10% correction….how are folks feeling now? housing doesn’t even correct this fast.[/quote]
There are a few individual stocks that are dropping close to my buying range after today. Index still seems too expensive for me.[/quote]
I’ll just wait for my $5000 monthly auto investment to kick in end of February, March April, etc.
10% loss since the beginning of the year. it will take a long time just to break even….home prices don’t even fall that quickly that fast in better parts of town. why worry about how expensive home prices are…at least one can live an an overpriced home that correct say 10%. one can’t live in index funds that correct 10%…
I guess this is why a good portion of wealth is still made from old school rental property….much more predictable it seems.
February 8, 2018 at 1:27 PM #809223FlyerInHi
Guest[quote=flu]
I guess this is why a good portion of wealth is still made from old school rental property….much more predictable it seems.[/quote]That’s a very observation flu. I prefer real estate.
But, in real estate, you won’t become billionaire, or even multi-millionaire. Much easier and faster with stocks.February 8, 2018 at 2:07 PM #809224ucodegen
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=flu]
I guess this is why a good portion of wealth is still made from old school rental property….much more predictable it seems.[/quote]That’s a very observation flu. I prefer real estate.
But, in real estate, you won’t become billionaire, or even multi-millionaire. Much easier and faster with stocks.[/quote]
I ran some calcs a few years back and came up with decent and consistent returns above 10% for long periods of time with rentals. I factored in many things including tax advantages including depreciation allowance at income tax rate vs recapture capital gains at cap gains rates on taxes, the counter balance of asset appreciation vs money depreciation etc. It was part of a rent vs buy calc I did years ago. It was interesting and almost made me pull the trigger on getting rental property.As for the downturn, I expected it and am expecting a total of nearly 15%. Since I have been in the market (w/ not much churn), I am still ahead for the past year + 1 month by about 16%. Because I was expecting it, I was and am keeping a good sized block of cash on the side and am planning to use it once the day-traders wring and wipe themselves out.
I think that part of what sparked it was that day-traders were expecting an ‘instant’ jump in earnings within the first month of the new tax law and panicked when they didn’t see it. They forgot it all depends upon what the date is for the corporate tax year, and one month does not a quarter’s earnings make.
So its time to keep the cards close to the chest and keep the green casino visor down low over your eyes.. its still going to be bumpy, but patience pays off… ☺
PS: With reference to Shiller PE graph, I find PEG more useful because it factors in growth. One is willing to tolerate a higher PE if there is strong growth. I also look at growth in revenues and how much is being paid for that and whether they have a chance of recapturing the cost. Looking at only PE is oversimplification.
February 8, 2018 at 2:34 PM #809225Coronita
Participantouch. markets ended badly….are we back to March 2017 prices yet?
funny thing is I got a bunch of CDs maturing on March 2018 too. maybe that was a good thing afterall, lol…..
me thinks the indexes will be negative this year. gonna be difficult to recover this loss ….
February 8, 2018 at 3:01 PM #809229spdrun
ParticipantWe’re back to Nov or Dec 2017, not March…
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