The stock market is tanking, we should be happy right????

[spdrun]

Our current “tech” economy is based on waste, planned obsolescence, and personal data theft. Putting the brakes on it would be a good thing, even if it’s not Trump’s intended result. Let us slow down, step back, and evaluate where this is all going.

[kev374]

[quote=carlsbadworker][quote=kev374]nothing to worry as long as it’s over the 200 dma, s&p500 2585.[/quote]

Did you say that 2585 was a resistance level?[/quote]

yes, S&P broke a key resistance level today but only by a few points. We will see where this goes. Market is oversold per fundamentals but investors are panicking because lunatic in chief is tweeting all sorts of nonsense every day.

[spdrun]

When the leading tech companies’ business models literally include theft, analysis, censorship, and possible resale of private user data, maybe the market is over BOUGHT. Facebook got caught with its pants down selling user data to political procurers. Google just got caught scanning files unrelated to Chrome on users’ hard drives for “viruses.” Also censoring nudity on Google Drive. Microsoft just cracked down — their new ToS bans profanity on Skype… Apple is moving towards locking down MacOS, iOS style with a new processor platform. Probably heavily nudging people to their “cloud” as well. List goes on… everyone (Adobe/MS) is pushing software rental. Rent-seeking off of software that often just worked for 5-10 years.

We’ve gone from time-share computing, to personal computing, full-circle around to time-share corporate-controlled computing. At least with traditional time-share computing, the entity running the central computer was a known one like a university, not a faceless megalith like Google.

What do you call what’s going on in the markets over the past few months? A good start. Let the house of cards collapse so we can rebuild it in a less horrible way.

[kev374]

market is down only 11%, hardly a house of cards crashing… when we lose 30% then we can talk about a crash, but right now it’s bullish.

[Coronita]

[quote=kev374]market is down only 11%, hardly a house of cards crashing… when we lose 30% then we can talk about a crash, but right now it’s bullish.[/quote]

Huh?????

In the past you’ve complained so much about the affordability of housing and put off buying thinking if you bought, home prices might correct and if I remember were fretting over a decline of anything 10+% or more.

I don’t get it. You worried about home prices falling for so long, despite it would have been your primary home and part of that would have been an alternative to paying rent….But losing 11% in the stock market in just a 3 month period is no big deal???? Perhaps the rationale is that since one hasn’t sold the stock index funds, technically one didn’t lose money yet. Ok fine… by the same note, technically if one doesn’t sell a primary home with a declining price , one hasn’t lost money either….and at least in the later case, you aren’t paying a làndlord anymore too. How fast do you think SoCal home prices would correct 11+%?

Also, what is the average annual return of the stock market for the past 20 years? it isn’t double digits, if I recall.

This is why I was very surprised you put a huge chunk back into the market after sitting out so long, all at once. it just seemed like it was inconsistebt with the aversion you had to risk in real estate, when imho both are have roughly the same investment/speculation risk.

[Anonymous]

[quote=kev374]market is down only 11%, hardly a house of cards crashing… when we lose 30% then we can talk about a crash, but right now it’s bullish.[/quote]

Markets can’t be bullish. Bullish is a sentiment. Markets don’t have sentiments. Only people do.

If you are bullish, that’s great. If you are bearish, that’s great too.

You can flip a coin and that would be just as great as either.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=spdrun]Thing is … I have no problem with FAANG companies being kicked.

Trump is an authoritarian at heart, but if he manages to rein in the FAANG companies, he’ll have done a service to privacy. Their business model is basically … “you’re the product, we want all of your personal data, we’ll sell it to the highest bidder, advertiser or government, whether you agree or not.” Even the auto companies are being evil by tracking new vehicles with 4G data connections — I think Tesla started THAT nice trend.

The tariffs? If they act as a tax on throw-away consumption, it might not be such a bad thing. The trend (started by liberal darling firm, Apple, BTW) of not even having easily replaceable batteries and having a walled garden with a limited OS update cycle is awful for the environment. E-waste is basically impossible to recycle cleanly, so long-term use is a better alternative.

Retaliatory tariffs on US pork? Good. Pig farming is a vile, polluting industry — the fewer pig farms the US has, the better it will be for our water quality.

Trump may end up being the best accidental, bumbling, blathering environmentalist and privacy advocate the US has had in 30 years. As long as his ass-kissing to the coal and oil industries and his more authoritarian decisions are tied up in court for the next 6.5 years, of course.[/quote]

Yeah, let Trump be Trump and we all be the poorer. China will take over the global trading order we created. Their market now matches ours in size and they can set the standards for the future.

[spdrun]

Assuming we don’t create a global recession to crash them and slow them down. There are theories that the 2008 crisis was manufactured (or at least allowed to happen) to slow China down.

[kev374]

market is stabilizing nicely today, looks like we bounced off the 200 DMA and now heading higher.

The brief period of consolidation on Monday was perhaps healthy as it took off some excesses caused by Trump’s ridiculous nonsense and now the market has had Trump fatigue so they can tune him out and we can focus on earnings season coming up driving the markets to recapture the old high and go higher.

The original forecast that most had was S&P 3000 by year end and that still looks likely given fundamentals.

[spdrun]

Up Friday, down Monday, up Tuesday. Looks like a fun ride, see plane-crash footage from “Alive”… Nasdaq was up ~50, whoops! just fell to +15 after bouncing off zero. Fun to watch! Hope the ad-tech firms and their investors are feeling some agida today.

[Coronita]

[quote=kev374]market is stabilizing nicely today, looks like we bounced off the 200 DMA and now heading higher.

The brief period of consolidation on Monday was perhaps healthy as it took off some excesses caused by Trump’s ridiculous nonsense and now the market has had Trump fatigue so they can tune him out and we can focus on earnings season coming up driving the markets to recapture the old high and go higher.

The original forecast that most had was S&P 3000 by year end and that still looks likely given fundamentals.[/quote]

it’s just interesting to observe one transform from being an uber bear in the housing and stock market for so many years (close to a decade) suddenly is a stock market permabull, at precisely the moment when the stock market was at an all time high, when a sizeable speculation was made.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=spdrun]Assuming we don’t create a global recession to crash them and slow them down. There are theories that the 2008 crisis was manufactured (or at least allowed to happen) to slow China down.[/quote]

Huh?! If that’s the case, it was a huge fail. Since 2008 China has grown so much more. Ask a new Chinese immigrant with cash how much money they made in RE alone. They are not the poor immigrants of the past.
The Great Recession forced China to reform to a consumer market economy. They built the best and biggest HSR system within 10 years; and they are exporting the technology all over the world. They have a thriving tech economy full of innovation.

China has new found confidence in the new Xi era, the third era since Mao.

I think we have more to lose in a trade war because our corporations will be essentially frozen out of the China market. But China will still be able to attract the investments they want because corporations are greedy and can’t ignore a large market.

Now, a real war war, the USA would certainly win tactically. Long term strategically, maybe not.

[kev374]

[quote=flu]
it’s just interesting to observe one transform from being an uber bear in the housing and stock market for so many years (close to a decade) suddenly is a stock market permabull, at precisely the moment when the stock market was at an all time high, when a sizeable speculation was made.[/quote]

??? the market is what it is… I still don’t believe in housing, I think housing is in a bubble. There is a huge difference between investing in stocks and buying a home. Buying a home is done with debt which I may not be able to repay if there is a huge recession. If stocks tank I will still be ok and will be able to ride it out.

Given the cost of homes and the burn rate required even for a shack these days unless you are a wealthy SOB you will lose everything in a major recession – this is fine with most people but not with me. Most people are idiots who did exactly that and lost it all in 2008 but they will never learn and make big bets that they cannot sustain and then think they are doing great… wait till all of them lose their homes.

[FlyerInHi]

Kev, it’s too late now, but you could have bought a modest condo in an older but good area like Huntington Beach at the bottom, in cash. You would have almost tripled your investment. And, nicely remodeled, you would have a stylish place to live, free of rent.

[Coronita]

[quote=kev374][quote=flu]
it’s just interesting to observe one transform from being an uber bear in the housing and stock market for so many years (close to a decade) suddenly is a stock market permabull, at precisely the moment when the stock market was at an all time high, when a sizeable speculation was made.[/quote]

??? the market is what it is… I still don’t believe in housing, I think housing is in a bubble. There is a huge difference between investing in stocks and buying a home. Buying a home is done with debt which I may not be able to repay if there is a huge recession. If stocks tank I will still be ok and will be able to ride it out.

Given the cost of homes and the burn rate required even for a shack these days unless you are a wealthy SOB you will lose everything in a major recession – this is fine with most people but not with me. Most people are idiots who did exactly that and lost it all in 2008 but they will never learn and make big bets that they cannot sustain and then think they are doing great… wait till all of them lose their homes.[/quote]

But that’s the rub… You aren’t “investing” in the stock market, at least based on your January actions.You are speculating. You speculated, by putting a large portion of your total investment capital into one basket (the stock market), all at one time, with the hope of a big score.

There’s nothing wrong with speculation, just like folks who go to vegas and want to bet a large portion on one hand of blackjack…

I just don’t follow that you think the stock market is a “safer” way of speculating then say real estate, especially when it would be also providing you shelter that you pay every month to someone else.

You keep railing against those folks that portion of the population who bought homes who lost homes as “idiots”, which is only part of the population that overleveraged with a loan they normally won’t qualify for. But at the same time, you’re glossing of all of those equivalent folks that speculated poorly in the stock market back in 2001 by moving a huge portion of their assets into the market (after sitting out of it for a long time) right before that market tanked too, something that could be similar to the situation you find yourself in a few months or a few years from now. Especially since you committed to a significant portion of your capital all on one hand, which puts your capital at a much larger risk to your (correct) market timing, and limit your ability to take advantage of any future correction and purchase/re-entry at a lower price, should such a correction occur.

In a recession, your stock picks (unless you shorted the markets, which clearly ou didn’t) gets hammered. So, if you’re really planning for the gloom and doom, the worst case scenario would be, you lose your job just like during the time when the tech bubble burst, and you need to sell your stock at a loss to pay for rent that you still need to pay for.

Also, assuming you didn’t put all your money into a downpayment for a house (I believe you said you had a working capital of $250k), I would assume you would have left yourself a cushion to pay mortgage+interest+tax etc for 3-4 years, in case you did lose your job…

So I’m not sure I get how the stock market is “safer” in your case.

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