Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › The stock market is tanking, we should be happy right????
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utcsox.
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March 30, 2018 at 7:34 AM #809772March 30, 2018 at 2:57 PM #809782
kev374
ParticipantApril boost +1.5% monthly gain forecasted:
Frankly I think we have tested the bottom and we are heading to 3000.
March 30, 2018 at 3:40 PM #809783spdrun
ParticipantWe’ll see. Jan-Mar broke trends in the downward direction — their argument is mostly “the trend says so it will be.” LOL.
March 30, 2018 at 4:35 PM #809784Anonymous
Guest[quote=kev374]April boost +1.5% monthly gain forecasted:
Frankly I think we have tested the bottom and we are heading to 3000.[/quote]
If you don’t like the current forecast on CNBC, just keep watching. It won’t be long before another guest analyst/expert/guru/psychic tells you what you want to hear.
March 30, 2018 at 5:16 PM #809785carlsbadworker
Participant[quote=harvey]
If you don’t like the current forecast on CNBC, just keep watching. It won’t be long before another guest analyst/expert/guru/psychic tells you what you want to hear.[/quote]LOL.
April 2, 2018 at 12:42 AM #809792Participantvery bearish sentiment around here when it comes to stocks and very bullish on housing.. seems strange to me as I think if equities do poorly it will affect housing but this is a housing forum so…
April 2, 2018 at 3:21 AM #809793
CoronitaParticipant[quote=kev374]very bearish sentiment around here when it comes to stocks and very bullish on housing.. seems strange to me as I think if equities do poorly it will affect housing but this is a housing forum so…[/quote]
Not really bullish on housing….but…all else being equal, if one wanted to speculate and put a big sum of money on one hand between the stock market and housing when both are high beginning of this year, I would picked housing if I was still paying a làndlord each month . At least if both declined, one would still be able to live in the later. Can’t live in stocks. and I doubt housing would fall as hard and fast as the stock market can.
In fact, I would have tried to have my cake and eat it too by doing housing instead of rent, and then slowly drip whatever I had left into basket of indexes, both foreign and domestic. You know, that dollar cost average “scam” as some say, lol. Although it certainly wouldn’t allow one capture a big whale, it would have reduced exposure to a sudden in fall in the market if my timing was off
April 2, 2018 at 9:22 AM #809795CoronitaParticipantI’d say we are finished for the rest of the year. trade war looms. s&p ends negative this year
April 2, 2018 at 11:04 AM #809796Participant[quote=kev374]nothing to worry as long as it’s over the 200 dma, s&p500 2585.[/quote]
Did you say that 2585 was a resistance level?
April 2, 2018 at 11:08 AM #809797Participant[quote=flu]I’d say we are finished for the rest of the year. trade war looms. s&p ends negative this year[/quote]
Unless the trade war indeed materializes, I find it hard for S&P to trend negative continuously if the corporate earning still trends upward. Not that they don’t deserve to go lower based on its sky-high PE10 ratio.
April 2, 2018 at 11:13 AM #809798Participant[quote=kev374]very bearish sentiment around here when it comes to stocks and very bullish on housing.. seems strange to me as I think if equities do poorly it will affect housing but this is a housing forum so…[/quote]
Supply and demand. The housing demand may decline rapidly, but its supply is very limited. So it is easier to balance. Stock on the other hand has much bigger supply as most people are holding stocks only because it is trending up. The tide could turn easily, as someone sees that 200 dma is crossed and turning it into a self-fulfilling prophesy. Just ask bitcoin.
April 2, 2018 at 11:19 AM #809799CoronitaParticipant[quote=carlsbadworker][quote=flu]I’d say we are finished for the rest of the year. trade war looms. s&p ends negative this year[/quote]
Unless the trade war indeed materializes, I find it hard for S&P to trend negative continuously if the corporate earning still trends upward. Not that they don’t deserve to go lower based on its sky-high PE10 ratio.[/quote]
Doesn’t corporate earnings reflect what happened in previous quarter. I am.just looking at this from the tarriff perspective. So China just decided to impose tarriffs on farm goods. What if it escalated to other things like auto and aerospace, and then those things trickle.down to parts supplier.
meanwhile seems like trump is hell bent on attacking FANG companies and it looks pretty effective.
seems to me the markets are just looking for an excuse to sell off.
I’m sorry, but things just seem pretty out of wack and pretty overinflated especially in tech. A home we’re trying to rent out we got interest from a bunch of folks, and the comp packages being thrown around is just mind boggling, I don’t see how it can be sustainable…For example, a Tesla engineer applying to lease reported his annual comp is…..$600k…this is from a company that is bleeding cash…. I don’t see how this is sustainable.
April 2, 2018 at 12:04 PM #809800ParticipantThing is … I have no problem with FAANG companies being kicked.
Trump is an authoritarian at heart, but if he manages to rein in the FAANG companies, he’ll have done a service to privacy. Their business model is basically … “you’re the product, we want all of your personal data, we’ll sell it to the highest bidder, advertiser or government, whether you agree or not.” Even the auto companies are being evil by tracking new vehicles with 4G data connections — I think Tesla started THAT nice trend.
The tariffs? If they act as a tax on throw-away consumption, it might not be such a bad thing. The trend (started by liberal darling firm, Apple, BTW) of not even having easily replaceable batteries and having a walled garden with a limited OS update cycle is awful for the environment. E-waste is basically impossible to recycle cleanly, so long-term use is a better alternative.
Retaliatory tariffs on US pork? Good. Pig farming is a vile, polluting industry — the fewer pig farms the US has, the better it will be for our water quality.
Trump may end up being the best accidental, bumbling, blathering environmentalist and privacy advocate the US has had in 30 years. As long as his ass-kissing to the coal and oil industries and his more authoritarian decisions are tied up in court for the next 6.5 years, of course.
April 2, 2018 at 12:13 PM #809801ParticipantOf course, I don’t know anything about what’s going to happen in the future, but I am just trying to make a more educated guess.
I completely agree with you that if the trade war happens, stock market will crash from here. The discussion is ONLY to assume that it won’t happen, as both China and US do not really want escalation in the trade war.
With that, I quote Jeremy Grantham in one of his recent writing:
The fundamentals are improving. The global economy is in sync for the first time in a dozen years and global profit margins are at a high; in the US, a corporate tax cut is on the way, which in today’s sticky, more monopolistic world, is unlikely to be quickly competed away as theory suggests, but very likely to further fatten the corporate share of the GDP pie.
There is just no sign of corporate future earnings to decline, excluding a big external shock such as trade war. Therefore, I am just presenting the argument that the decline may not be sustainable.
Yes, interest rate is rising, but the corporate debt to equity is at its lowest level in the past decade (the data itself, however, doesn’t prove anything, as 2007 corporate debut to equity level is also very low but we all know what happened in 2008).
What’s your side of argument of corporate earning decline except the trade war? Trump’s tweet on FANG stocks isn’t going to have a long-lasting effect.
April 2, 2018 at 1:46 PM #809802CoronitaParticipant[quote=carlsbadworker]Of course, I don’t know anything about what’s going to happen in the future, but I am just trying to make a more educated guess.
I completely agree with you that if the trade war happens, stock market will crash from here. The discussion is ONLY to assume that it won’t happen, as both China and US do not really want escalation in the trade war.
With that, I quote Jeremy Grantham in one of his recent writing:
The fundamentals are improving. The global economy is in sync for the first time in a dozen years and global profit margins are at a high; in the US, a corporate tax cut is on the way, which in today’s sticky, more monopolistic world, is unlikely to be quickly competed away as theory suggests, but very likely to further fatten the corporate share of the GDP pie.
There is just no sign of corporate future earnings to decline, excluding a big external shock such as trade war. Therefore, I am just presenting the argument that the decline may not be sustainable.
Yes, interest rate is rising, but the corporate debt to equity is at its lowest level in the past decade (the data itself, however, doesn’t prove anything, as 2007 corporate debut to equity level is also very low but we all know what happened in 2008).
What’s your side of argument of corporate earning decline except the trade war? Trump’s tweet on FANG stocks isn’t going to have a long-lasting effect.[/quote]
My only argument is the trade war or at least the fear of it, causing a stock selloff, which makes shareholders upset, which causes companies to cut back/layoff people, which then leads to a cut in consumer spending. And I agree, if that happens, the markets are in big trouble.
But to some extent, I already think there’s already some damage done.Me thinks the markets and economy in general has a lot more to do with how people feel than how it really is, followed by perception turning in reality. But who knows. Interesting times though. Long term, this will just be a blip, so drip drip drip invest away.
Personally, I don’t think rising rates are really that big a deal. but that’s just me.
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