Recession 2020

[FlyerInHi]

I just read this article and my crystal ball is cloudy now.
Is capital flight from China going to bring more Chinese money to USA? But a strong dollar would be less affordable to foreigners. And I also read elsewere that FDI in US has been on a downward trend since Trump was elected

Worried About Turkey’s Economic Problems? China’s Could Be Worse
The fate of the world economy depends on how China negotiates a weakening currency and capital flight.

Where will the Chinese money go? An American friend of mine wanted to buy a new condo in Bangkok. Over there they sell preconstuctiom and foreigners can only own 49% of the units. The Chinese have bought all the foreigner allotments already, years before delivery. Apparently Chinese buyers are snapping up properties in Cambodia and Malaysia as well.

And this:
Inflation is back. Will it kill the economy?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/inflation-is-back-will-it-kill-the-economy/2018/08/15/ac4a4b06-a09b-11e8-8e87-c869fe70a721_story.html?utm_term=.066143badbc4

[The-Shoveler]

Actually the Fed is doing far more damage than trump to Emerging markets.

after all this effort to “GET” inflation they may stomp on the breaks too fast.

The Fed is the biggest danger IMO right now.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Actually IMO the end goal is to end up with “zero” tariffs (on both sides).

We will see I guess.[/quote]

This is a good wonkish article for you. Ain’t gonna happen. I will “bow down” to Trump if it does (as Amarosa once said).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-should-be-careful-tariffs-stick-around/2018/07/30/d9f52a8c-940f-11e8-a679-b09212fb69c2_story.html?utm_term=.cfe089138f3c

[FlyerInHi]

Another epic economic collapse is coming
By George Will

What happened to all the deficit hawks. Remember all the people who opposed the stimulus? Where are they?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/another-epic-economic-collapse-is-coming/2018/08/17/c26fb12c-a182-11e8-93e3-24d1703d2a7a_story.html?utm_term=.005c21d5d5d4

[Myriad]

I think the recession will occur because of normal rise of interest rates and over investment in certain areas.
The corporate and commercial RE looks like they have higher than average debt than prior to previous recessions. A good proportion of commercial RE loans are interest only and are 5/7 years, so when they refinance, the higher rates will impact the values and $ amount that can borrowed.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=Myriad]I think the recession will occur because of normal rise of interest rates and over investment in certain areas.[/quote]

Normal? You don’t think the deficit is causing interest rates rise and crowding out private borrowing?

[The-Shoveler]

10 year is at about 2.844%

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US10Y

Fed seems to be the only thing pushing it IMO.

[Myriad]

[img_assist|nid=26684|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=79]

At the moment, no. The market doesn’t see deficit spending as impacting long term interest rates. So it’s unlikely deficit spending will cause a recession.

But, it may be a problem once we’re in a recession or in the post-recession phase. But, if you look at Japan, high debt hasn’t been a problem for borrowing rates yet they are at 250% of GDP.
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/B3-BM176_Dshot_NS_20180821014327.png

[FlyerInHi]

Yeah, i agree Myriad.

Deficit hawkishness, especially after 2008, was years premature and retarded economic growth. We’d be richer today, with a larger GPD, had it not been for misguided notions of deficit spending.

[FlyerInHi]

The trade wars with China and other countries are about to get ugly.
As Trump’s problems mount, he’s going to unleash hate and resentment among his base.
The policies have lagging effects on the economy, but eventually we will live with the consequences.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-trump-trade-talks-20180824-story.html

[FlyerInHi]

Reagans budget director says all hell will break loose.

[FlyerInHi]

Will I be proven right? Time will tell

Top Business Economists Predict U.S. Could Face Recession in 2020
http://fortune.com/2018/06/04/recession-2020-trump-trade/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/is-trumponomics-working-not-really/2018/09/21/b336a886-bd17-11e8-be70-52bd11fe18af_story.html?utm_term=.1352c8cf01b4

[SK in CV]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Will I be proven right? Time will tell

Top Business Economists Predict U.S. Could Face Recession in 2020
http://fortune.com/2018/06/04/recession-2020-trump-trade/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/is-trumponomics-working-not-really/2018/09/21/b336a886-bd17-11e8-be70-52bd11fe18af_story.html?utm_term=.1352c8cf01b4%5B/quote%5D

Monkeys could fly in 2020.

[scaredyclassic]

i don’t think my hairline will recede any furhter in 2020

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=SK in CV]

Monkeys could fly in 2020.[/quote]

It’s a hunch. Now I’m thinking recession in 2021.

I need to know because I’m planning to buy a muilti-unit property next bottom. Then I’ll be OK for retirement overseas.
I’m retiring somewhere in South East Asia so I can enjoy the easy travel on high speed rail that will be available.

Watch this American in China. High speed rail is so nice!

[Author]

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