Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
sdrealtor
Participant[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=deadzone]I would be more interested in knowing what % of cash buyers are living in the house as their primary residence. Probably can’t know that for sure from available data. But I would assume that most cash buyers are NOT purchasing a primary residence with all cash. I’m not saying it doesn’t happen, but doesn’t really make sense with mortgage rates so low in recent years. [/quote]
I would disagree, and I’ll use myself as an example. For a number of years my wife and I have been looking for a bigger house. We have been steadily saving money and due to stock market gains have amassed more than we would have thought possible. In early January a house we really liked came on the market in La Jolla. It was virtually all the things we had been looking for. When the house went on the market, the listing agent told everyone that cash offers would be preferred. So we made a full price cash offer, with an escalator clause. (30 day escrow) There were several competing offers and for reason I won’t get into here, while not the top price (but close) we were selected as the purchasers provided we would switch to a 15 day escrow. So, we agreed. Before January was out, we’d sold a shocking amount of stock and paid a ton of money for our dream house.
But, despite this being our dream house, that’s not to say it didn’t need some work and updates. So… we are in the process of getting plans for the remodel we will do, and it will easily be a year before we move in. So, looking at tax records, you will see that our primary address is the house we are currently living in, but will probably sell in a year or so when we move to the new house.
All of this is a simple example of how people buying houses for their primary residence with all cash exist out here. We aren’t investors, despite owning two houses, nor are we that unusual. I’ve know several other people in the area who have done the exact same thing we are doing.[/quote]
I would have figured that out. Someone buying a $1M plus home for cash in the area they live fro a long time and own another is not likely an investor. Thats not the profile of someone buying a house to rent or flip.
ParticipantIf the tax records indicate a mailing address different than the physical address it’s not a primary residence. There are a few other ways but i think i can answer whether it’s owner occupied with well over 90% confidence level
Second homes are not investment purchases. They are for enjoying
Do you have a zip code to add?
ParticipantThose locked into low rates have been gone for a solid month. Don’t forget we still have the transition to 5/7/10-1 arms. Sales will go down the unknown is much inventory do we get and how motivated are sellers. We should see some price erosion through year end but nothing major. Then we hit Spring again. It’s at least a year until we could see bigger changes. Between them and now who knows what else can change?
Participant[quote=deadzone]Once again you just typed like 500 characters and didn’t really say anything, just have to counter anything I say, I guess that is your hobby. Mine is Bingo.[/quote]
Then St George is definitely in your future! You can be the caller
ParticipantI would guess that the surveys are always lagging behind a little bit. Those figures also represent some kind of average. Around here people average and below are more typically renters. Those at the average and above are the ones that skew towards the homeownership
ParticipantI don’t see how it could be as bad and yes definitely qualifiers as this is a very different situation. Even people buying at what feels like the top of the market put a lot of money down and financed with fully qualified record low interest rates in nearly every case. That is 180° different than last time. The only way we can really crash here is with non-discretionary sellers. The presence of what I just laid out greatly diminishes the amount of those potentially in that category. At this point even in the case of a prolong economic downturn it’s tough to predict how things would roll out here
ParticipantSo funny. I think RE is high and not going up anytime soon with a good chance of going down. What it does is not a concern it’s just of interest. I can earn a living in an up or even better in a down market. My personal holdings are not for sale nor will they be lifetime. Where they go is entertainment value only for me.
I’ve done this long enough and studied it in such depth locally that I know down is not a sure thing. That’s why i track and post weekly market updates. What i think has no impact on what happens. I watch and let the market tell me what’s happening.
ParticipantSorry for late update, ran numbers but ran up to LA for a concert last night.
New listings 19 (19) – as expected last week was a lowside outlier. New listings bounced back up to normal range but not excessive at all
New Pendings of 23 (32) – pendings are pretty consistent from week to week
Thats -14
Closed sales at 17 – this is starting to show something I’ll explain later
Total houses for sale 86 (54) with median of $1.985M ($2M). Back up to where it was two weeks ago
A few things going on here. We are entering the time of year we typically see inventory rise and normal conditions would dictate about 2 more months of rising inventory though not a huge increase.
While new homes coming on the market can be roughly the same as new pendings we can and do see inventory rise for a couple reasons. First we see homes selling off market and getting entered into the MLS as pending so they dont hit the market as new listings. The other thing is we are seeing a higher fallout of escrow rate than we were seeing during the frenzy when it was so tough to get into escrow few would dare cancel. Despite the time lag between pendings and closings when we see closings consistently below the levels of pendings thats indicative of homes falling out of escrow.
I took a look at the inventory to see how sellers are reacting thus far. About 60% the inventory is on the market 3 weeks or less which is too early for a price change in most cases. If you havent see an offer in 3 weeks its generally the time to take a second look at your price.
There are 15 homes on the market for 21+ days under $2m. Of those 9 have had a price reduction mostly in homes listed by the more experienced agents. They are doing their jobs to find the market level something newer agents have no experience with.
Between $2 and 3M only 5 of 13 have reduced. I see a combination of inexperienced agents and likely ego driven sellers.
Above $3M only 3 of 12 reduced. Three things typically go on up here. These are more unique harder to value homes that get listed high and let market sort out value. Second, the market for these homes is much smaller and they always take longer. Last these often include weathier owners and/or longtime homeowners that will sell if they get their price but not if they dont.
Market as a whole is not doing anything unusual and indicative of shift away from frenzy into balance.
ParticipantUh…no. I was just as heavily invested in RE during the bubble if not more and certainly far more leveraged with far more to lose while talking daily about the bubble and the needed correction. I think many and perhaps most of us were. Silly strawman
June 8, 2022 at 3:01 PM in reply to: SF city RE prices down to 2017 prices due to crime wave and WFH #825968Participant[quote=The-Shoveler][quote=Coronita][quote=spdrun]Everything will be OK now that bOuDiN iS oUt. AMiRITe?[/quote]
Good. hopefully, this is the beginning of throwing out a lot of people from the extreme left.
Good luck New York City crime wave.[/quote]
It swings back and forth most people seem to forget CA has probably been a red state far longer than blue one.
What we need is really something in the middle but that seems harder and harder to get as both sides have gone to the extremes.[/quote]
MOre than 60% of this country sits in the middle spanning both parties. The politicians try to weaponize the views of the extremes to scare their bases. Its working better than ever especially on the right but on the left also
ParticipantI chose the date simply as an easy place to measure from around the start of the pandemic. Sounds like you did fine. Not as good as some and better than others
ParticipantLOL not even close yet. If you ask some newer realtors they may feel that way. They have seen nothing but boom times for the last decade. Having done this for 20+ years I know what normal markets look/feel like. We are far from going off a cliff so far
ParticipantGOOAL!
ParticipantBalance starting to shift a little to buyers finally. This is when market starts to slow down as focus shifts to Summer vacation. Its also when late sellers hit the market. Typically inventory rises through June and July peaking sometime in August before dropping the rest of the year.
New listings 13 (7) – highest count in last 18 months but not by much. Nice to see more come on
New Pendings of 12 (12) – this was the biggest pending week of the year as it should be with more inventory
Closed sales at 6 (8) –
Inventory at 27 with median of 1.1M. Last year it was 14 with median of 825K.
Inventory has been building here with a little more coming on the market than usual but new pendings are hitting highs for the year as buyers finally have choices. A couple weeks back I said we should hit 30 and we are getting close. When/If we pass 40 it should benefit buyers. However its hard to say how long that will last unless we see a flood of new inventory. If it continues on this path its what a soft landing should look like.
-
AuthorPosts
