Canary in the Coal Mine

[Anonymous]

[quote=flyer]And, not just “rich people,” dz. We also know a lot of people who, although they were not really in an optimum position to do so during The Great Recession, bet there would be a rebound, so they gathered all of the resources they had, and also invested. Of course, things could have gone either way, but, in retrospect, they are very glad they did.[/quote]

I called this gambling because if one were to read this, it literally said they “Bet” there would be a rebound, with all their resources. That is by definition gambling and risky. I am not criticizing the decision, just pointing out that it is/was a risky decision and only looks good in hindsight.

Meanwhile, Rich of all people calling me out for this? Seriously, I am the only active participant on this forum that is expecting a RE crash, of course it looks like I’m picking fights because there is nobody else here with that view apparently. Everyone else is so heavily invested in RE that they can’t bear (no pun intended) to hear it.

[Rich Toscano]

Emphasis mine here:

[quote=deadzone][quote=flyer]And, not just “rich people,” dz. We also know a lot of people who, although they were not really in an optimum position to do so during The Great Recession, bet there would be a rebound, so they gathered all of the resources they had, and also invested. Of course, things could have gone either way, but, in retrospect, they are very glad they did.[/quote]

I called this gambling because if one were to read this, it literally said they “Bet” there would be a rebound, with all their resources. That is by definition gambling and risky. I am not criticizing the decision, just pointing out that it is/was a risky decision and only looks good in hindsight.[/quote]

No, you said it’s “literally gambling.”

If you can’t tell the difference between:

1. Buying a financial asset (ie a stream of future cash flows) at a distressed price during a time of economic uncertainty, vs.
2. Keno

…then I can’t help you.

[quote=deadzone]Meanwhile, Rich of all people calling me out for this? Seriously, I am the only active participant on this forum that is expecting a RE crash, of course it looks like I’m picking fights because there is nobody else here with that view apparently. Everyone else is so heavily invested in RE that they can’t bear (no pun intended) to hear it.[/quote]

Ah, there’s the ad hominem again.

It’s funny, you go on about how much better this site was back during the mid-00s bubble. (At least the design looked somewhat modern then; I’ll grant you that).

But the main thing I remember from back then was that 90% of the bulls went straight to ad hominem. I could write some long article with data, charts, analysis, etc, and the entirety of the response would be, “You’re just a bitter renter.”

In addition to being insulting, it was pathetic and just showed the weakness of their arguments. Just like when you do it now.

BTW you look like you’re picking fights because you’re picking fights. But I suspect you knew that.

[Anonymous]

If you don’t equate the word “Bet” to gambling, I can’t help you. Sorry. That was a risk and realistically there is a fine line between investing and gambling. But perhaps that is a sensitive topic for you since you work in the financial services industry.

And calling me out for picking fights is absurd when you consider the mean spirited and bullying posts from your other members. The only difference is I don’t back down from the bully. I get attacked whenever I post something relevant to a RE downturn but don’t back down so I’m the one picking fights?

Sorry, this site is a joke at this stage, there a perhaps a dozen or so regular contributors and little diversity of thought. We are in arguably the biggest financial and housing bubble in history and nobody here wants to even acknowledge it.

[gzz]

Flu it is a good thing home buyers usually can outbid investors.

Inventory seasonally increases April through June.

It is still very low.

A deceleration from ~25% YoY increases to 10% increases is going to be bumpy and involve a lot of mispriced listings.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Rich Toscano]
But the main thing I remember from back then was that 90% of the bulls went straight to ad hominem. I could write some long article with data, charts, analysis, etc, and the entirety of the response would be, “You’re just a bitter renter.”[/quote]

So clearly you don’t read much on this site. Nearly every single response to my posts from SDR and FLU are the same ad hominem attacks you mention. “You have an axe to grind”, “You are bitter because you missed the opportunity of a lifetime”, etc. etc. Same tired, irrelevant attacks. Exactly what you described experiencing yourself. Strange to me how you support them today, quite ironic.

[gzz]

DZ, there’s simply no RE bubble here unless you are also predicting a crash in rents. Right now buying a property here yields about 5% while long bonds yield 3%. That’s just not a bubble valuation.

This was not the situation in 2006, when bonds paid 2x or more local rental yields. The house I actually rented back in 2006 yielded about 2.5% based on a similar sale. $1200/mo and $400k.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Rich Toscano]
But the main thing I remember from back then was that 90% of the bulls went straight to ad hominem. I could write some long article with data, charts, analysis, etc, and the entirety of the response would be, “You’re just a bitter renter.”[/quote]

So clearly you don’t read much on this site. Nearly every single response to my posts from SDR and FLU are the same ad hominem attacks you mention. “You have an axe to grind”, “You are bitter because you missed the opportunity of a lifetime”, etc. etc. Same tired, irrelevant attacks. Exactly what you described experiencing yourself. Strange to me how you support them today, quite ironic.[/quote]

Because you the “data” of what you bring is just plain wrong *most* of the time. And you even said it right here…

[quote=deadzone]…

And on to money laundering, what I am really referring to is all the cash purchases made by foreign buyers, (Chinese primarily, a lot of Mexican too in this area) who are investing in US assets to hide their money from their own
governments, whether due to tax or other reasons. This is very common but impossible to quantify.[/quote]

You even admit it, you have no data to back what you are “trying” to pass off as a fact. And you do this all the time.

Also, you keep trying saying this…

[quote=deadzone]
Meanwhile, Rich of all people calling me out for this? Seriously, I am the only active participant on this forum that is expecting a RE crash, of course it looks like I’m picking fights because there is nobody else here with that view apparently. Everyone else is so heavily invested in RE that they can’t bear (no pun intended) to hear it.
[/quote]

Maybe it makes you feel better to think this way, but it’s only in your alternative reality. Truth is, People who bought property 10-12 years ago, even with a correction now, will still be light years ahead. That’s 10-12 years of money put into their own equity instead of giving it to a landlord. Or 10-12 years of continuous positive cash flow… And 10-12 years having loans at the lowest possible rates for the next 15,30 years, if any at all. Or in some cases, having no loans because the markets were so good, that money made in one investment was cashed in to pay off debt and now have no to little debt.

Even with $0 appreciation, there was a heck of lot more benefits than not buying 10-12 years ago….No matter how you slice and dice what you think might happen now wrto a “correction”, that won’t change. Appreciation is just icing on the cake.

There’s 10-12 years of unwind that would need to happen to be at the same financial state as someone(s) that took no action 10-12 years ago. And even so, there’s 10-12 years of money given to a landlord for those that didn’t pull the trigger that they would need to make up versus 10-12 years of people that sunk the same money into their own property.

That’s the truth based on people’s financial state right now who pulled the trigger 10-12 years ago that apparently seems like bothers the heck out of you. And why you appear so combative and when people point this out, that whatever decisions you make now isn’t going to make up the difference that people made 10-12 years ago. So, I wouldn’t focus on trying to “get even” and be made whole from the past 10-12 years, since you’ll be disappointed… just focus on yourself to make your financial state better from this part on since what is done is done.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=flyer]And, not just “rich people,” dz. We also know a lot of people who, although they were not really in an optimum position to do so during The Great Recession, bet there would be a rebound, so they gathered all of the resources they had, and also invested. Of course, things could have gone either way, but, in retrospect, they are very glad they did.[/quote]

I called this gambling because if one were to read this, it literally said they “Bet” there would be a rebound, with all their resources. That is by definition gambling and risky. I am not criticizing the decision, just pointing out that it is/was a risky decision and only looks good in hindsight.

[/quote]

News flash. Every investment involves “risk”. The question isn’t whether there is “risk” or “no risk”. There’s risk for every investment with a decent return.

Things that have low to no risk will most likely have shitty returns/results. Why? Because if there is low/no risk, everyone and anyone would seize that opportunity, and then that opportunity would not be there because everyone would be doing it.

Same thing goes with people with shitty credit.
People who have shitty credit pay higher interest rates than people with good credit because people who have shitty credit have much higher risk for not being able to payback the loan, hence one needs to be compensated more for taking on that risk. Otherwise there’s no incentive to take on that extra risk, all else being equal. Why would I want to rent to someone with shitty credit for the same price as someone with 800+ credit score? That’s why people with shittier credit end up paying higher rent prices.

If you want an absolutely clarity and certainty before making financial decisions, it will never be the right time for you to do anything financially meaningful because you will always try to talk yourself out of taking a step forward… You might as well just put all your money in a CD and cash and don’t complain about shitty returns or falling behind financially.

If you can’t tell the difference between those calculated investment risks that one does need to take to move the needle forward, versus betting on red at Vegas, then good luck to you. The next 20 years will be the same as the previous 20 years for you.

You’re looking for perfection to pull the trigger. It’s the direct opposite of people that is completely reckless…. Neither extremes will get one very far in the long run.

The correct decision usually is somewhere in between and one is one’s worst enemy in that decision process.

[Anonymous]

Once again you just typed like 500 characters and didn’t really say anything, just have to counter anything I say, I guess that is your hobby. Mine is Bingo.

[an]

[quote=deadzone]Once again you just typed like 500 characters and didn’t really say anything, just have to counter anything I say, I guess that is your hobby. Mine is Bingo.[/quote]
Must be stressful seeing everything do you do in life as a gamble. Inaction is action, and that’s a gamble too.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone]Once again you just typed like 500 characters and didn’t really say anything, just have to counter anything I say, I guess that is your hobby. Mine is Bingo.[/quote]

Then St George is definitely in your future! You can be the caller

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=deadzone]If you don’t equate the word “Bet” to gambling, I can’t help you. Sorry. That was a risk and realistically there is a fine line between investing and gambling. But perhaps that is a sensitive topic for you since you work in the financial services industry.[/quote]

Hahaha…. you just can’t help yourself with the ad hominem attacks. It’s really something. Do you not understand how obnoxious that is? Never mind… forget I asked.

[quote=deadzone]And calling me out for picking fights is absurd when you consider the mean spirited and bullying posts from your other members. The only difference is I don’t back down from the bully. I get attacked whenever I post something relevant to a RE downturn but don’t back down so I’m the one picking fights? [/quote]

To be fair, I called you out for the combination of picking fights AND your terrible arguments.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Rich Toscano]
But the main thing I remember from back then was that 90% of the bulls went straight to ad hominem. I could write some long article with data, charts, analysis, etc, and the entirety of the response would be, “You’re just a bitter renter.”[/quote]

So clearly you don’t read much on this site. Nearly every single response to my posts from SDR and FLU are the same ad hominem attacks you mention. “You have an axe to grind”, “You are bitter because you missed the opportunity of a lifetime”, etc. etc. Same tired, irrelevant attacks. Exactly what you described experiencing yourself. Strange to me how you support them today, quite ironic.[/quote]

Well I agree with you there, and I’ve said the same thing to them (or to sdr anyway) — that I think once someone goes ad hominem, they lose all credibility.

I don’t “support” anyone, btw. I’m singling you out for your unique combination of pugnaciousness, constant ad-hominems, and low-quality arguments that often involve just making stuff up. That doesn’t equate to support of anyone else.

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]Once again you just typed like 500 characters and didn’t really say anything, just have to counter anything I say, I guess that is your hobby. Mine is Bingo.[/quote]

Then St George is definitely in your future! You can be the caller[/quote]

It sounds fun but I’m not a big fan of desert climate, or Mormons, so will have to find a different spot for my retirement Bingo.

[michaelm]

Long time reader, first time poster.

Y’all wanna chill with the flame wars?

Thanks.

[Author]

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