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SD Realtor
ParticipantHi Ray –
Yeah the stats are pretty clear on that regardless of whether the secular trend is up or down. That is why I kept posting that I expected to see increased sales this spring. It is simply the seasonal behavior and it fits into the envelope of the overall secular depreciation trend well.
Also increased activity doesn’t always translate to higher prices because it really depends on the psychology of the buyers out there.
The biggest misunderstanding on this site is that Piggs way way way overestimate the reticence of buyers out there to indeed buy. I will say that buyers are as a group becoming much more aware of the power they have, yet they also battle their own impatience to own as well thus in some respect they do feed the sticky mouths of the sellers out there.
Wanttosell is a good example of this. I would imagine that receiving 7 offers in the first few weeks of a listing that are only 10% under asking will indeed indicate a heavy level of interest in the home and most likely result in a buyer actually coming closer to the asking price soon.
Alternately many many sellers also fail to understand that the first couple weeks are THE ABSOLUTE BEST time for a listing. I could not advocate strongly enough that getting a deal done with the first few that come in is pretty important. Passing on them or playing hardball with them is essentially adding risk to the listing.
This also is a very good example of the frustration that I believe some people have posted here about homes that they visited, and even made offers on that were rejected only to see the homes sell months later at offers at or even LESS then the offer they made.
Wanttosell I am not trying to be rude to you. I try not to do that on this post. Your home may or may not sell close to or at your asking price. It will be an interesting call. All I am saying is that you are quite representative of many of the non distressed sellers out there. (I am assuming you are not selling because of financial distress and have a fair amount of equity in your home) Perhaps I am wrong. Deep down you may not believe you feel “entitled” to receive 1.3 based on comps you have been shown. However you are not acknowledging the market conditions. Falling markets fall below comps, it is simple as that. Again, given the high degree of interest in your home, it sounds like you have a fair shot at the 1.3 but I am making that statement based on your description of what is going on, which is not unbiased.
ParticipantHi Ray –
Yeah the stats are pretty clear on that regardless of whether the secular trend is up or down. That is why I kept posting that I expected to see increased sales this spring. It is simply the seasonal behavior and it fits into the envelope of the overall secular depreciation trend well.
Also increased activity doesn’t always translate to higher prices because it really depends on the psychology of the buyers out there.
The biggest misunderstanding on this site is that Piggs way way way overestimate the reticence of buyers out there to indeed buy. I will say that buyers are as a group becoming much more aware of the power they have, yet they also battle their own impatience to own as well thus in some respect they do feed the sticky mouths of the sellers out there.
Wanttosell is a good example of this. I would imagine that receiving 7 offers in the first few weeks of a listing that are only 10% under asking will indeed indicate a heavy level of interest in the home and most likely result in a buyer actually coming closer to the asking price soon.
Alternately many many sellers also fail to understand that the first couple weeks are THE ABSOLUTE BEST time for a listing. I could not advocate strongly enough that getting a deal done with the first few that come in is pretty important. Passing on them or playing hardball with them is essentially adding risk to the listing.
This also is a very good example of the frustration that I believe some people have posted here about homes that they visited, and even made offers on that were rejected only to see the homes sell months later at offers at or even LESS then the offer they made.
Wanttosell I am not trying to be rude to you. I try not to do that on this post. Your home may or may not sell close to or at your asking price. It will be an interesting call. All I am saying is that you are quite representative of many of the non distressed sellers out there. (I am assuming you are not selling because of financial distress and have a fair amount of equity in your home) Perhaps I am wrong. Deep down you may not believe you feel “entitled” to receive 1.3 based on comps you have been shown. However you are not acknowledging the market conditions. Falling markets fall below comps, it is simple as that. Again, given the high degree of interest in your home, it sounds like you have a fair shot at the 1.3 but I am making that statement based on your description of what is going on, which is not unbiased.
February 23, 2008 at 9:37 AM in reply to: 2 questions, Are short sale prices just fantasy? and Where are the fence sitters? #158178ParticipantRus it is good to see you back. Citydweller I would agree with the others that as enticing as some of these deals seem now, patience will be rewarded. Also using the rental rate of today as a metric for your cash flow analysis may lead to problems because the rental rates may well decline as affordability increases for landlords to buy at a cheaper rate and the recession kicks in more.
SD Realtor
February 23, 2008 at 9:37 AM in reply to: 2 questions, Are short sale prices just fantasy? and Where are the fence sitters? #158471ParticipantRus it is good to see you back. Citydweller I would agree with the others that as enticing as some of these deals seem now, patience will be rewarded. Also using the rental rate of today as a metric for your cash flow analysis may lead to problems because the rental rates may well decline as affordability increases for landlords to buy at a cheaper rate and the recession kicks in more.
SD Realtor
February 23, 2008 at 9:37 AM in reply to: 2 questions, Are short sale prices just fantasy? and Where are the fence sitters? #158480ParticipantRus it is good to see you back. Citydweller I would agree with the others that as enticing as some of these deals seem now, patience will be rewarded. Also using the rental rate of today as a metric for your cash flow analysis may lead to problems because the rental rates may well decline as affordability increases for landlords to buy at a cheaper rate and the recession kicks in more.
SD Realtor
February 23, 2008 at 9:37 AM in reply to: 2 questions, Are short sale prices just fantasy? and Where are the fence sitters? #158490ParticipantRus it is good to see you back. Citydweller I would agree with the others that as enticing as some of these deals seem now, patience will be rewarded. Also using the rental rate of today as a metric for your cash flow analysis may lead to problems because the rental rates may well decline as affordability increases for landlords to buy at a cheaper rate and the recession kicks in more.
SD Realtor
February 23, 2008 at 9:37 AM in reply to: 2 questions, Are short sale prices just fantasy? and Where are the fence sitters? #158561ParticipantRus it is good to see you back. Citydweller I would agree with the others that as enticing as some of these deals seem now, patience will be rewarded. Also using the rental rate of today as a metric for your cash flow analysis may lead to problems because the rental rates may well decline as affordability increases for landlords to buy at a cheaper rate and the recession kicks in more.
SD Realtor
February 23, 2008 at 9:34 AM in reply to: Any price drops in Scripps ranch and carmel valley? #158174ParticipantCompletely agree with you FLU. Not a question of if, just when. Those with patience will be rewarded but don’t expect it to happen overnight. Give it a year or 2-3.
SD Realtor
February 23, 2008 at 9:34 AM in reply to: Any price drops in Scripps ranch and carmel valley? #158466ParticipantCompletely agree with you FLU. Not a question of if, just when. Those with patience will be rewarded but don’t expect it to happen overnight. Give it a year or 2-3.
SD Realtor
February 23, 2008 at 9:34 AM in reply to: Any price drops in Scripps ranch and carmel valley? #158474ParticipantCompletely agree with you FLU. Not a question of if, just when. Those with patience will be rewarded but don’t expect it to happen overnight. Give it a year or 2-3.
SD Realtor
February 23, 2008 at 9:34 AM in reply to: Any price drops in Scripps ranch and carmel valley? #158484ParticipantCompletely agree with you FLU. Not a question of if, just when. Those with patience will be rewarded but don’t expect it to happen overnight. Give it a year or 2-3.
SD Realtor
February 23, 2008 at 9:34 AM in reply to: Any price drops in Scripps ranch and carmel valley? #158556ParticipantCompletely agree with you FLU. Not a question of if, just when. Those with patience will be rewarded but don’t expect it to happen overnight. Give it a year or 2-3.
SD Realtor
February 22, 2008 at 11:00 PM in reply to: Any price drops in Scripps ranch and carmel valley? #158058ParticipantHi Newbiz,
I would agree with what the others said about CV with regards to it coming down. In general CV is still stuck in ultra sticky mode because it is a desired destination but I do feel it has come down. Not much distress there though.
As far as Scripps goes I am just as frustrated. Essentially the 11494 Winding Ridge property that is in escrow right now is selling at a 2003 price level for that west side of Scripps that you are on, up on the hill. While that is not the price dump you want, that is still not bad. I do agree that CV is stickier then Scripps and I believe that CV is in general more desireable then Scripps due to location and proximity.
In the year of 2000 there were some sales for 3000+ sf homes in your area for 600 and up. By 2001 they were in the mid 700’s. Can they run down to the 600’s again in 3 years? Perhaps they can. I don’t think they will but ya never know… depends on employment. We have a big notch in the employment picture and a runup in rates, then yeah they MAY drop to that level.
SD Realtor
February 22, 2008 at 11:00 PM in reply to: Any price drops in Scripps ranch and carmel valley? #158351ParticipantHi Newbiz,
I would agree with what the others said about CV with regards to it coming down. In general CV is still stuck in ultra sticky mode because it is a desired destination but I do feel it has come down. Not much distress there though.
As far as Scripps goes I am just as frustrated. Essentially the 11494 Winding Ridge property that is in escrow right now is selling at a 2003 price level for that west side of Scripps that you are on, up on the hill. While that is not the price dump you want, that is still not bad. I do agree that CV is stickier then Scripps and I believe that CV is in general more desireable then Scripps due to location and proximity.
In the year of 2000 there were some sales for 3000+ sf homes in your area for 600 and up. By 2001 they were in the mid 700’s. Can they run down to the 600’s again in 3 years? Perhaps they can. I don’t think they will but ya never know… depends on employment. We have a big notch in the employment picture and a runup in rates, then yeah they MAY drop to that level.
SD Realtor
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