2 questions, Are short sale prices just fantasy? and Where are the fence sitters?

[citydweller]

I’m following the Mission Valley (92108) market. There is currently a short sale listed at the Franciscan (6780 Friars Rd) for a 1 bedroom at $149,900. This unit was purchased for $281K in 2005, so what are the chances the bank will approve this short sale? Also of interest, this unit sold for $180K in 2003, so the asking (fantasy?) price is below 2003 pricing.
I know for a fact that renters in this complex are paying as much as $1075 per month for a 1 bedroom unit. If someone bought this unit for 100% financing at 6%, their mortgage of $900 plus the HOA of $290 would be $1190 (prop tax offset by tax deduction), that doesn’t seem like much of a premium to pay to be a homeowner.
Also, there is a foreclosure listed at Rancho Mission Rd for $119,900 for a 1 bedroom, and judging by the pictures it does not appear to be trashed.
At these prices, where are all the fence sitters, waiting to jump into the market?

[jimmyle]

Here is a 43% loss in Mira Mesa. So 46% might not be a fantasy.

Date Price Held Return Annual
02/14/2008 $206,000 2y 7m -43% -19%
06/30/2005 $360,000 n/a – –

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-088A520F-10248_Maya_Linda_Rd_35_San_Diego_CA_92126

[NotCranky]

The pitfalls of short sales are many. The price is a wishing price, more dependent on how established the mechanisms for actually selling that property short . Have your agent quiz the listing agent on the topic. Ask if they can verify that the short sale has reasonable possibilities of success before spending too much time and energy on it. Has the lender approved the short sale? The price? Is there evidence of this? Are they making progress towards these goals? If not tell them express your interest but with strong language of it being non-binding, if written, and move on. Check back in a month or so. Don’t go getting pre-approval letters every month for a hopeless properties, that can hurt your credit.

Short sales can be fairly cut and dry but it is taking a while for the parties to get up to speed on them in some instances.

SDR has posted some threads on this topic, You can find them in the archives.

Here is a thread I was just looking at that discusses some important issues on the topic.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/General/tabid/57/forumid/104/tpage/1/view/topic/postid/14786/Default.aspx#14786

[SD Realtor]

Couldn’t agree more Rustico. Alot of times though it sucks because the listing agent doesn’t have a clue of whether the lender will approve the short sale. In alot of cases as well, the peskiness of the listing agent will make a big difference. I have been nagging and nagging and nagging the asset manager for a short I have listed for months on in quite often. I am always nice and kiss his ass. It does indeed look like the approval will happen. However I think in alot of cases listing agents give up on the listing even when an offer is in… and they just don’t do squat.

Anyways you covered it well. For buyers I am working with on shorts, I just tell em, submit the offer, then basically put in a mental closet. Move on to other properties. Then if it happens all the better. Make enough offers and one will come through. Also not to worry about being obligated to oblige if the offer is accepted months later. You can always get out of it via any of the contingencies.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Couldn’t agree more Rustico. Alot of times though it sucks because the listing agent doesn’t have a clue of whether the lender will approve the short sale. In alot of cases as well, the peskiness of the listing agent will make a big difference. I have been nagging and nagging and nagging the asset manager for a short I have listed for months on in quite often. I am always nice and kiss his ass. It does indeed look like the approval will happen. However I think in alot of cases listing agents give up on the listing even when an offer is in… and they just don’t do squat.

Anyways you covered it well. For buyers I am working with on shorts, I just tell em, submit the offer, then basically put in a mental closet. Move on to other properties. Then if it happens all the better. Make enough offers and one will come through. Also not to worry about being obligated to oblige if the offer is accepted months later. You can always get out of it via any of the contingencies.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Couldn’t agree more Rustico. Alot of times though it sucks because the listing agent doesn’t have a clue of whether the lender will approve the short sale. In alot of cases as well, the peskiness of the listing agent will make a big difference. I have been nagging and nagging and nagging the asset manager for a short I have listed for months on in quite often. I am always nice and kiss his ass. It does indeed look like the approval will happen. However I think in alot of cases listing agents give up on the listing even when an offer is in… and they just don’t do squat.

Anyways you covered it well. For buyers I am working with on shorts, I just tell em, submit the offer, then basically put in a mental closet. Move on to other properties. Then if it happens all the better. Make enough offers and one will come through. Also not to worry about being obligated to oblige if the offer is accepted months later. You can always get out of it via any of the contingencies.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Couldn’t agree more Rustico. Alot of times though it sucks because the listing agent doesn’t have a clue of whether the lender will approve the short sale. In alot of cases as well, the peskiness of the listing agent will make a big difference. I have been nagging and nagging and nagging the asset manager for a short I have listed for months on in quite often. I am always nice and kiss his ass. It does indeed look like the approval will happen. However I think in alot of cases listing agents give up on the listing even when an offer is in… and they just don’t do squat.

Anyways you covered it well. For buyers I am working with on shorts, I just tell em, submit the offer, then basically put in a mental closet. Move on to other properties. Then if it happens all the better. Make enough offers and one will come through. Also not to worry about being obligated to oblige if the offer is accepted months later. You can always get out of it via any of the contingencies.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Couldn’t agree more Rustico. Alot of times though it sucks because the listing agent doesn’t have a clue of whether the lender will approve the short sale. In alot of cases as well, the peskiness of the listing agent will make a big difference. I have been nagging and nagging and nagging the asset manager for a short I have listed for months on in quite often. I am always nice and kiss his ass. It does indeed look like the approval will happen. However I think in alot of cases listing agents give up on the listing even when an offer is in… and they just don’t do squat.

Anyways you covered it well. For buyers I am working with on shorts, I just tell em, submit the offer, then basically put in a mental closet. Move on to other properties. Then if it happens all the better. Make enough offers and one will come through. Also not to worry about being obligated to oblige if the offer is accepted months later. You can always get out of it via any of the contingencies.

SD Realtor

[Portlock]

I’m not a fence sitter, I’m totally on the sidelines. I’ll tell you why I’m not moving yet, although I am a bit more intrigued lately.

Bugs’ post applies to yours (Ground floor? think again). The lower priced segmented market may still depreciate into 2009, but the figures are much smaller – how badly burned could one get if you purchase at under 150k? Probably not much.

Right now I could feasibly purchase a 1 bed / 1 bath property and my total monthly PITI-HOA would equal my current rent cost. I believe this will be a buyers market for at least another 12 months conservatively, so I envision that I can purchase more square footage the longer I wait. And my supply of choices is increasing every day. And they’re upgrades over last month’s choices, in quality and location. I see no reason to pull the trigger now, comfortable and happy as a renter.

[Portlock]

I’m not a fence sitter, I’m totally on the sidelines. I’ll tell you why I’m not moving yet, although I am a bit more intrigued lately.

Bugs’ post applies to yours (Ground floor? think again). The lower priced segmented market may still depreciate into 2009, but the figures are much smaller – how badly burned could one get if you purchase at under 150k? Probably not much.

Right now I could feasibly purchase a 1 bed / 1 bath property and my total monthly PITI-HOA would equal my current rent cost. I believe this will be a buyers market for at least another 12 months conservatively, so I envision that I can purchase more square footage the longer I wait. And my supply of choices is increasing every day. And they’re upgrades over last month’s choices, in quality and location. I see no reason to pull the trigger now, comfortable and happy as a renter.

[Portlock]

I’m not a fence sitter, I’m totally on the sidelines. I’ll tell you why I’m not moving yet, although I am a bit more intrigued lately.

Bugs’ post applies to yours (Ground floor? think again). The lower priced segmented market may still depreciate into 2009, but the figures are much smaller – how badly burned could one get if you purchase at under 150k? Probably not much.

Right now I could feasibly purchase a 1 bed / 1 bath property and my total monthly PITI-HOA would equal my current rent cost. I believe this will be a buyers market for at least another 12 months conservatively, so I envision that I can purchase more square footage the longer I wait. And my supply of choices is increasing every day. And they’re upgrades over last month’s choices, in quality and location. I see no reason to pull the trigger now, comfortable and happy as a renter.

[Portlock]

I’m not a fence sitter, I’m totally on the sidelines. I’ll tell you why I’m not moving yet, although I am a bit more intrigued lately.

Bugs’ post applies to yours (Ground floor? think again). The lower priced segmented market may still depreciate into 2009, but the figures are much smaller – how badly burned could one get if you purchase at under 150k? Probably not much.

Right now I could feasibly purchase a 1 bed / 1 bath property and my total monthly PITI-HOA would equal my current rent cost. I believe this will be a buyers market for at least another 12 months conservatively, so I envision that I can purchase more square footage the longer I wait. And my supply of choices is increasing every day. And they’re upgrades over last month’s choices, in quality and location. I see no reason to pull the trigger now, comfortable and happy as a renter.

[Portlock]

I’m not a fence sitter, I’m totally on the sidelines. I’ll tell you why I’m not moving yet, although I am a bit more intrigued lately.

Bugs’ post applies to yours (Ground floor? think again). The lower priced segmented market may still depreciate into 2009, but the figures are much smaller – how badly burned could one get if you purchase at under 150k? Probably not much.

Right now I could feasibly purchase a 1 bed / 1 bath property and my total monthly PITI-HOA would equal my current rent cost. I believe this will be a buyers market for at least another 12 months conservatively, so I envision that I can purchase more square footage the longer I wait. And my supply of choices is increasing every day. And they’re upgrades over last month’s choices, in quality and location. I see no reason to pull the trigger now, comfortable and happy as a renter.

[Anonymous]

Forgive me if these are stupid questions but….. dont the majority of these short sales involve mortgages that had compulsory mortgage insurance? If so then isnt the bank going to foreclose and collect for $ mortage – sales price? from the insurance co? If that is so why would the bank ever accept a short sale. Is the bank just stringing the seller along to keep collecting payments? and is just going to foreclose eventually when the payments stop? or does mortgage insurance cover difference between short sale $ and full loan $ ? If the homeowner can beg-borrow-raise from family a few more payments is this just money in the bank ?

[SD Realtor]

Josh yeah it will take awhile… just gotta sit tight… we will see what happens…

edmundwest – A vast majority of mortgages did not require mortgage insurance as they were piggybacks. That is people got a first for the first 80% of the value and a second for whatever they were short on for cash. Thus no pmi needed.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Josh yeah it will take awhile… just gotta sit tight… we will see what happens…

edmundwest – A vast majority of mortgages did not require mortgage insurance as they were piggybacks. That is people got a first for the first 80% of the value and a second for whatever they were short on for cash. Thus no pmi needed.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Josh yeah it will take awhile… just gotta sit tight… we will see what happens…

edmundwest – A vast majority of mortgages did not require mortgage insurance as they were piggybacks. That is people got a first for the first 80% of the value and a second for whatever they were short on for cash. Thus no pmi needed.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Josh yeah it will take awhile… just gotta sit tight… we will see what happens…

edmundwest – A vast majority of mortgages did not require mortgage insurance as they were piggybacks. That is people got a first for the first 80% of the value and a second for whatever they were short on for cash. Thus no pmi needed.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Josh yeah it will take awhile… just gotta sit tight… we will see what happens…

edmundwest – A vast majority of mortgages did not require mortgage insurance as they were piggybacks. That is people got a first for the first 80% of the value and a second for whatever they were short on for cash. Thus no pmi needed.

SD Realtor

[Anonymous]

Forgive me if these are stupid questions but….. dont the majority of these short sales involve mortgages that had compulsory mortgage insurance? If so then isnt the bank going to foreclose and collect for $ mortage – sales price? from the insurance co? If that is so why would the bank ever accept a short sale. Is the bank just stringing the seller along to keep collecting payments? and is just going to foreclose eventually when the payments stop? or does mortgage insurance cover difference between short sale $ and full loan $ ? If the homeowner can beg-borrow-raise from family a few more payments is this just money in the bank ?

[Anonymous]

Forgive me if these are stupid questions but….. dont the majority of these short sales involve mortgages that had compulsory mortgage insurance? If so then isnt the bank going to foreclose and collect for $ mortage – sales price? from the insurance co? If that is so why would the bank ever accept a short sale. Is the bank just stringing the seller along to keep collecting payments? and is just going to foreclose eventually when the payments stop? or does mortgage insurance cover difference between short sale $ and full loan $ ? If the homeowner can beg-borrow-raise from family a few more payments is this just money in the bank ?

[Anonymous]

Forgive me if these are stupid questions but….. dont the majority of these short sales involve mortgages that had compulsory mortgage insurance? If so then isnt the bank going to foreclose and collect for $ mortage – sales price? from the insurance co? If that is so why would the bank ever accept a short sale. Is the bank just stringing the seller along to keep collecting payments? and is just going to foreclose eventually when the payments stop? or does mortgage insurance cover difference between short sale $ and full loan $ ? If the homeowner can beg-borrow-raise from family a few more payments is this just money in the bank ?

[Anonymous]

Forgive me if these are stupid questions but….. dont the majority of these short sales involve mortgages that had compulsory mortgage insurance? If so then isnt the bank going to foreclose and collect for $ mortage – sales price? from the insurance co? If that is so why would the bank ever accept a short sale. Is the bank just stringing the seller along to keep collecting payments? and is just going to foreclose eventually when the payments stop? or does mortgage insurance cover difference between short sale $ and full loan $ ? If the homeowner can beg-borrow-raise from family a few more payments is this just money in the bank ?

[NotCranky]

The pitfalls of short sales are many. The price is a wishing price, more dependent on how established the mechanisms for actually selling that property short . Have your agent quiz the listing agent on the topic. Ask if they can verify that the short sale has reasonable possibilities of success before spending too much time and energy on it. Has the lender approved the short sale? The price? Is there evidence of this? Are they making progress towards these goals? If not tell them express your interest but with strong language of it being non-binding, if written, and move on. Check back in a month or so. Don’t go getting pre-approval letters every month for a hopeless properties, that can hurt your credit.

Short sales can be fairly cut and dry but it is taking a while for the parties to get up to speed on them in some instances.

SDR has posted some threads on this topic, You can find them in the archives.

Here is a thread I was just looking at that discusses some important issues on the topic.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/General/tabid/57/forumid/104/tpage/1/view/topic/postid/14786/Default.aspx#14786

[NotCranky]

The pitfalls of short sales are many. The price is a wishing price, more dependent on how established the mechanisms for actually selling that property short . Have your agent quiz the listing agent on the topic. Ask if they can verify that the short sale has reasonable possibilities of success before spending too much time and energy on it. Has the lender approved the short sale? The price? Is there evidence of this? Are they making progress towards these goals? If not tell them express your interest but with strong language of it being non-binding, if written, and move on. Check back in a month or so. Don’t go getting pre-approval letters every month for a hopeless properties, that can hurt your credit.

Short sales can be fairly cut and dry but it is taking a while for the parties to get up to speed on them in some instances.

SDR has posted some threads on this topic, You can find them in the archives.

Here is a thread I was just looking at that discusses some important issues on the topic.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/General/tabid/57/forumid/104/tpage/1/view/topic/postid/14786/Default.aspx#14786

[NotCranky]

The pitfalls of short sales are many. The price is a wishing price, more dependent on how established the mechanisms for actually selling that property short . Have your agent quiz the listing agent on the topic. Ask if they can verify that the short sale has reasonable possibilities of success before spending too much time and energy on it. Has the lender approved the short sale? The price? Is there evidence of this? Are they making progress towards these goals? If not tell them express your interest but with strong language of it being non-binding, if written, and move on. Check back in a month or so. Don’t go getting pre-approval letters every month for a hopeless properties, that can hurt your credit.

Short sales can be fairly cut and dry but it is taking a while for the parties to get up to speed on them in some instances.

SDR has posted some threads on this topic, You can find them in the archives.

Here is a thread I was just looking at that discusses some important issues on the topic.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/General/tabid/57/forumid/104/tpage/1/view/topic/postid/14786/Default.aspx#14786

[NotCranky]

The pitfalls of short sales are many. The price is a wishing price, more dependent on how established the mechanisms for actually selling that property short . Have your agent quiz the listing agent on the topic. Ask if they can verify that the short sale has reasonable possibilities of success before spending too much time and energy on it. Has the lender approved the short sale? The price? Is there evidence of this? Are they making progress towards these goals? If not tell them express your interest but with strong language of it being non-binding, if written, and move on. Check back in a month or so. Don’t go getting pre-approval letters every month for a hopeless properties, that can hurt your credit.

Short sales can be fairly cut and dry but it is taking a while for the parties to get up to speed on them in some instances.

SDR has posted some threads on this topic, You can find them in the archives.

Here is a thread I was just looking at that discusses some important issues on the topic.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/General/tabid/57/forumid/104/tpage/1/view/topic/postid/14786/Default.aspx#14786

[jimmyle]

Here is a 43% loss in Mira Mesa. So 46% might not be a fantasy.

Date Price Held Return Annual
02/14/2008 $206,000 2y 7m -43% -19%
06/30/2005 $360,000 n/a – –

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-088A520F-10248_Maya_Linda_Rd_35_San_Diego_CA_92126

[jimmyle]

Here is a 43% loss in Mira Mesa. So 46% might not be a fantasy.

Date Price Held Return Annual
02/14/2008 $206,000 2y 7m -43% -19%
06/30/2005 $360,000 n/a – –

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-088A520F-10248_Maya_Linda_Rd_35_San_Diego_CA_92126

[jimmyle]

Here is a 43% loss in Mira Mesa. So 46% might not be a fantasy.

Date Price Held Return Annual
02/14/2008 $206,000 2y 7m -43% -19%
06/30/2005 $360,000 n/a – –

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-088A520F-10248_Maya_Linda_Rd_35_San_Diego_CA_92126

[jimmyle]

Here is a 43% loss in Mira Mesa. So 46% might not be a fantasy.

Date Price Held Return Annual
02/14/2008 $206,000 2y 7m -43% -19%
06/30/2005 $360,000 n/a – –

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-088A520F-10248_Maya_Linda_Rd_35_San_Diego_CA_92126

[SD Realtor]

citydweller the listings are real and not a mirage. Amy Green at Prudential has alot of foreclosure listings and they are all on the MLS. Here office uses the price in the basement mentality to get alot of offers and eventually they all get bid up. I would very much imagine this is the case for the Rancho Mission listing. At 119k this is home absolutely pencils out. So my read is that this is getting bid up as we type. The Friars Rd listing as you pointed out is a short sale and it will take much longer to process. It may indeed also have offers on it already.

SD Realtor

ps – where you been rus?

[citydweller]

The Friars Rd listing has been listed for 30 days at $175K and just today was reduced to $149,900. Would that imply that they did not receive any offers at the $175K price?

As enticing as I find these prices, I can’t help but believe that these are just the tip of the iceberg, and that soon I will be able to pick from dozens within this price range.

[NotCranky]

“The Friars Rd listing has been listed for 30 days at $175K and just today was reduced to $149,900. Would that imply that they did not receive any offers at the $175K price?”

As a short sale this is probably the real deal. The property has the NOD, which I understand is frequently a requirement for lender motivation. I think it is really anyones guess where the support takes effect for this stuff that has been pretty hard hit already. I know that many properties in the 90’s, that were bargains early on, never went below what they were purchased for including one I bought 1992. Obviously there is no sense of urgency here. If the deals don’t get better,which they might, they are not going away anytime soon either.

Hi Adam,
I have been reading… just not posting.

I took the time to get some momentum on a few things.
It seems like you are having a good go of things and as usual putting out the good stuff.

[NotCranky]

“The Friars Rd listing has been listed for 30 days at $175K and just today was reduced to $149,900. Would that imply that they did not receive any offers at the $175K price?”

As a short sale this is probably the real deal. The property has the NOD, which I understand is frequently a requirement for lender motivation. I think it is really anyones guess where the support takes effect for this stuff that has been pretty hard hit already. I know that many properties in the 90’s, that were bargains early on, never went below what they were purchased for including one I bought 1992. Obviously there is no sense of urgency here. If the deals don’t get better,which they might, they are not going away anytime soon either.

Hi Adam,
I have been reading… just not posting.

I took the time to get some momentum on a few things.
It seems like you are having a good go of things and as usual putting out the good stuff.

[NotCranky]

“The Friars Rd listing has been listed for 30 days at $175K and just today was reduced to $149,900. Would that imply that they did not receive any offers at the $175K price?”

As a short sale this is probably the real deal. The property has the NOD, which I understand is frequently a requirement for lender motivation. I think it is really anyones guess where the support takes effect for this stuff that has been pretty hard hit already. I know that many properties in the 90’s, that were bargains early on, never went below what they were purchased for including one I bought 1992. Obviously there is no sense of urgency here. If the deals don’t get better,which they might, they are not going away anytime soon either.

Hi Adam,
I have been reading… just not posting.

I took the time to get some momentum on a few things.
It seems like you are having a good go of things and as usual putting out the good stuff.

[NotCranky]

“The Friars Rd listing has been listed for 30 days at $175K and just today was reduced to $149,900. Would that imply that they did not receive any offers at the $175K price?”

As a short sale this is probably the real deal. The property has the NOD, which I understand is frequently a requirement for lender motivation. I think it is really anyones guess where the support takes effect for this stuff that has been pretty hard hit already. I know that many properties in the 90’s, that were bargains early on, never went below what they were purchased for including one I bought 1992. Obviously there is no sense of urgency here. If the deals don’t get better,which they might, they are not going away anytime soon either.

Hi Adam,
I have been reading… just not posting.

I took the time to get some momentum on a few things.
It seems like you are having a good go of things and as usual putting out the good stuff.

[NotCranky]

“The Friars Rd listing has been listed for 30 days at $175K and just today was reduced to $149,900. Would that imply that they did not receive any offers at the $175K price?”

As a short sale this is probably the real deal. The property has the NOD, which I understand is frequently a requirement for lender motivation. I think it is really anyones guess where the support takes effect for this stuff that has been pretty hard hit already. I know that many properties in the 90’s, that were bargains early on, never went below what they were purchased for including one I bought 1992. Obviously there is no sense of urgency here. If the deals don’t get better,which they might, they are not going away anytime soon either.

Hi Adam,
I have been reading… just not posting.

I took the time to get some momentum on a few things.
It seems like you are having a good go of things and as usual putting out the good stuff.

[citydweller]

The Friars Rd listing has been listed for 30 days at $175K and just today was reduced to $149,900. Would that imply that they did not receive any offers at the $175K price?

As enticing as I find these prices, I can’t help but believe that these are just the tip of the iceberg, and that soon I will be able to pick from dozens within this price range.

[citydweller]

The Friars Rd listing has been listed for 30 days at $175K and just today was reduced to $149,900. Would that imply that they did not receive any offers at the $175K price?

As enticing as I find these prices, I can’t help but believe that these are just the tip of the iceberg, and that soon I will be able to pick from dozens within this price range.

[citydweller]

The Friars Rd listing has been listed for 30 days at $175K and just today was reduced to $149,900. Would that imply that they did not receive any offers at the $175K price?

As enticing as I find these prices, I can’t help but believe that these are just the tip of the iceberg, and that soon I will be able to pick from dozens within this price range.

[citydweller]

The Friars Rd listing has been listed for 30 days at $175K and just today was reduced to $149,900. Would that imply that they did not receive any offers at the $175K price?

As enticing as I find these prices, I can’t help but believe that these are just the tip of the iceberg, and that soon I will be able to pick from dozens within this price range.

[SD Realtor]

citydweller the listings are real and not a mirage. Amy Green at Prudential has alot of foreclosure listings and they are all on the MLS. Here office uses the price in the basement mentality to get alot of offers and eventually they all get bid up. I would very much imagine this is the case for the Rancho Mission listing. At 119k this is home absolutely pencils out. So my read is that this is getting bid up as we type. The Friars Rd listing as you pointed out is a short sale and it will take much longer to process. It may indeed also have offers on it already.

SD Realtor

ps – where you been rus?

[SD Realtor]

citydweller the listings are real and not a mirage. Amy Green at Prudential has alot of foreclosure listings and they are all on the MLS. Here office uses the price in the basement mentality to get alot of offers and eventually they all get bid up. I would very much imagine this is the case for the Rancho Mission listing. At 119k this is home absolutely pencils out. So my read is that this is getting bid up as we type. The Friars Rd listing as you pointed out is a short sale and it will take much longer to process. It may indeed also have offers on it already.

SD Realtor

ps – where you been rus?

[SD Realtor]

citydweller the listings are real and not a mirage. Amy Green at Prudential has alot of foreclosure listings and they are all on the MLS. Here office uses the price in the basement mentality to get alot of offers and eventually they all get bid up. I would very much imagine this is the case for the Rancho Mission listing. At 119k this is home absolutely pencils out. So my read is that this is getting bid up as we type. The Friars Rd listing as you pointed out is a short sale and it will take much longer to process. It may indeed also have offers on it already.

SD Realtor

ps – where you been rus?

[SD Realtor]

citydweller the listings are real and not a mirage. Amy Green at Prudential has alot of foreclosure listings and they are all on the MLS. Here office uses the price in the basement mentality to get alot of offers and eventually they all get bid up. I would very much imagine this is the case for the Rancho Mission listing. At 119k this is home absolutely pencils out. So my read is that this is getting bid up as we type. The Friars Rd listing as you pointed out is a short sale and it will take much longer to process. It may indeed also have offers on it already.

SD Realtor

ps – where you been rus?

[CAwireman]

“At these prices, where are all the fence sitters, waiting to jump into the market?”

CityD,

Some thoughts that come to mind.
1) Our saturation of people who wanted to own (buy a
home on credit) rose to something like 75%. Please validate my estimate. So one point is that all the people who wanted homes, bought homes.(purchase a home on credit)

2) Fence sitting, is not an easy thing to accomplish. When you want an iPod in the US, you go buy one. Flat panel TV, same. Home, same. It takes discipline to fence sit, and that is not a characteristic commonly found in the US. So,
my WAG is that as a percentage, there aren’t that many fence sitters out there. And, the ones that exist, aren’t going to jump in too early.

3) There are now more people who a) can’t affort a home to begin with due to the astronomically high asking prices compared to salary. b) More people are now walking around with bad credit scores, loads of debt or even a foreclosure or bankruptcy. Banks are paying attention to this now (what a concept)and not freely giving loans out to anyone who walks through the door.

4) As a fence sitter, I can tell you it can be brutal. Especially if you and your spouse don’t see eye to eye on it. (If we don’t by now honey, my friend says that we’ll never be able to buy…..). This is a tough one to negotiate, and there is also peer pressure from friends, relatives, and coworkers. We should all have enough self confidence to chart our own course, but most often, we go along with the pack.

It would be interesting to see the total US and San Diego percentages of home ownership (Owned, or purchasing on credit) for each year for the last 20 years. I believe the percentage exploded in the 2000 and an on years, largely due to loose credit rampant RE speculation. With a saturated “owner” sector, there aren’t as many people buying – they have already purchased, and are either happy or just plain stuck. Those who have purchased (loved) and lost (foreclose, short sell, etc) have a bad taste and aren’t likely to purchase again, even if they could. Bubble sitting is a difficult posture to maintain, and few can endure it, they are few and far between.

Thanks for the post CityD

HiggyBaby

[Bugs]

I think the main thing that has caught me by surprise has been the relative ease with which these lenders have given up over the last few months. I fully expected them to put up more of a fight.

It’s clear that these portions of the market are being dominated and driven by expectations of the lenders. In addition to pricing the REOs, which set the pace for the decline, they also control the pricing on the short sales. A short sale can’t go any lower than it’s lender will allow it to go.

Right now, the REOs and shorts comprise fully 70% of a few of these markets, and I expect that trend to spread. They’re completely in the driver’s seat and everyone else is just along for the ride.

[SD Realtor]

Rus it is good to see you back. Citydweller I would agree with the others that as enticing as some of these deals seem now, patience will be rewarded. Also using the rental rate of today as a metric for your cash flow analysis may lead to problems because the rental rates may well decline as affordability increases for landlords to buy at a cheaper rate and the recession kicks in more.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Rus it is good to see you back. Citydweller I would agree with the others that as enticing as some of these deals seem now, patience will be rewarded. Also using the rental rate of today as a metric for your cash flow analysis may lead to problems because the rental rates may well decline as affordability increases for landlords to buy at a cheaper rate and the recession kicks in more.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Rus it is good to see you back. Citydweller I would agree with the others that as enticing as some of these deals seem now, patience will be rewarded. Also using the rental rate of today as a metric for your cash flow analysis may lead to problems because the rental rates may well decline as affordability increases for landlords to buy at a cheaper rate and the recession kicks in more.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Rus it is good to see you back. Citydweller I would agree with the others that as enticing as some of these deals seem now, patience will be rewarded. Also using the rental rate of today as a metric for your cash flow analysis may lead to problems because the rental rates may well decline as affordability increases for landlords to buy at a cheaper rate and the recession kicks in more.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Rus it is good to see you back. Citydweller I would agree with the others that as enticing as some of these deals seem now, patience will be rewarded. Also using the rental rate of today as a metric for your cash flow analysis may lead to problems because the rental rates may well decline as affordability increases for landlords to buy at a cheaper rate and the recession kicks in more.

SD Realtor

[barnaby33]

What market is 70% REO and short sales? If its truly that bad already, dear lard, I will get my beach front condo in Del Mar in the high 300’s.

Seriously 70%? El Cajon, Ramona, Santee? Where are these totally illiquid locked up markets? Name some names Bugs.

Josh

[SD Realtor]

Josh don’t mistake distress with affordability.

SD Realtor

[Bugs]

The 70% figure I used includes pendings and closed sales, but doesn’t include the probate, divorce and relocation sellers who are also compelled to sell regardless of price.

Another thing to note is that not all of the REOs and short sales are being openly marketed as such in the MLS – the only way you’d find some of them is to check their current ownership, which is very time consuming.

That’s why I haven’t surveyed that many zips, just a couple that I knew would be likely candidates. Oceanside’s 92056 and 92057 zips were at the top of my list. Some of the S/E San Diego zips, like 92139 and the southern half of 92102 were also no-brainers. I’m sure there are more, like the east side of Chula Vista and parts of Escondido and El Cajon.

[Bugs]

The 70% figure I used includes pendings and closed sales, but doesn’t include the probate, divorce and relocation sellers who are also compelled to sell regardless of price.

Another thing to note is that not all of the REOs and short sales are being openly marketed as such in the MLS – the only way you’d find some of them is to check their current ownership, which is very time consuming.

That’s why I haven’t surveyed that many zips, just a couple that I knew would be likely candidates. Oceanside’s 92056 and 92057 zips were at the top of my list. Some of the S/E San Diego zips, like 92139 and the southern half of 92102 were also no-brainers. I’m sure there are more, like the east side of Chula Vista and parts of Escondido and El Cajon.

[Bugs]

The 70% figure I used includes pendings and closed sales, but doesn’t include the probate, divorce and relocation sellers who are also compelled to sell regardless of price.

Another thing to note is that not all of the REOs and short sales are being openly marketed as such in the MLS – the only way you’d find some of them is to check their current ownership, which is very time consuming.

That’s why I haven’t surveyed that many zips, just a couple that I knew would be likely candidates. Oceanside’s 92056 and 92057 zips were at the top of my list. Some of the S/E San Diego zips, like 92139 and the southern half of 92102 were also no-brainers. I’m sure there are more, like the east side of Chula Vista and parts of Escondido and El Cajon.

[Bugs]

The 70% figure I used includes pendings and closed sales, but doesn’t include the probate, divorce and relocation sellers who are also compelled to sell regardless of price.

Another thing to note is that not all of the REOs and short sales are being openly marketed as such in the MLS – the only way you’d find some of them is to check their current ownership, which is very time consuming.

That’s why I haven’t surveyed that many zips, just a couple that I knew would be likely candidates. Oceanside’s 92056 and 92057 zips were at the top of my list. Some of the S/E San Diego zips, like 92139 and the southern half of 92102 were also no-brainers. I’m sure there are more, like the east side of Chula Vista and parts of Escondido and El Cajon.

[Bugs]

The 70% figure I used includes pendings and closed sales, but doesn’t include the probate, divorce and relocation sellers who are also compelled to sell regardless of price.

Another thing to note is that not all of the REOs and short sales are being openly marketed as such in the MLS – the only way you’d find some of them is to check their current ownership, which is very time consuming.

That’s why I haven’t surveyed that many zips, just a couple that I knew would be likely candidates. Oceanside’s 92056 and 92057 zips were at the top of my list. Some of the S/E San Diego zips, like 92139 and the southern half of 92102 were also no-brainers. I’m sure there are more, like the east side of Chula Vista and parts of Escondido and El Cajon.

[barnaby33]

SD Realtor there is distress because of a lack of afford-ability. Ergo, distress leads to afford-ability over the long run. Ah, the circle of life.

That 70% number just seems to high even in the worst hit zip codes, for how early we are in the foreclosure cycle. I’ve never known Bugs to post anything mildly inflammatory, so taking the source into account alongside the number is alarming.

Josh

[SD Realtor]

Not agreeing with you at all Josh. REO homes in CV on Caminito Stella and on Mesa Norte were priced over 1.4 and 1.8M respectively. The home on Mesa Norte stood firm on offers and received several offers and did not take any of them until they got one at 1.8M.

What Bugs posted most likely rings true for some areas yet you don’t really care about those areas because you would never buy there would you? Read my CV/4S monitor. My last posted showed over 40% of the 4S listings are either shorts or REO. Yet would you call those affordable? I would not yet but yeah in about 2-3 years it very well could be.

Yes distress does lead to affordability but it is all relative to the region, the demand for that region and how long that region has showed distress.

SD Realtor

[barnaby33]

So you cherry pick one area (one of the more desirable) to make your point, but then back track and agree me in the end, whats a boy to do?

First off San Diego will not be saved by CV and its environs. You’ll note in my original post, I asked bugs to name names on areas where this 70% figure is true. Finally distress DOES breed afford-ability; they are two sides of the same coin. If prices were lower there wouldn’t be REO’s.

I think we can all pretty safely agree that SD is not Detroit. This means that there is always a price greater than zero at which ANY property here can be sold. Now given that as my axiom, I posit the corollary if an REO exists, it does so only to the extent that it was not affordable. Thats why it became an REO. The distress happened prior to the foreclosure. Foreclosure is just a way for the bank to dictate the terms. Are you telling me that the bank kept the price the same as the seller who lost it?

All of which is really tangential since the whole point I made was that on a macro level distress breeds lower prices as lenders don’t want to hold houses and will in most cases keep cutting the price till it sells.

Rot always starts at the outside and works in. Temecula is North county later this year and central SD next year.

Josh

[SD Realtor]

Josh I can pick plenty of REO properties that are unaffordable.

Yes distress does lead to affordability. That is not what I was disagreeing with. Yet if you think you will get your home in Del Mar at what you may deem affordable, you are mistaken. That is the point I was trying to make.

Point number 2, distress also happens when people bought homes who should not have bought homes. What is affordable to some is not affordable to others. People are defaulting on 200k condos just as well as 2M dollar homes. Distress happens moreso because of that then anything else. Now a phenomenah of people handing in their keys because the asset has depreciated so much is a different issue altogether.

My disagreement with you is not that distress doesn’t bredd lower pricing because it does as long AS THERE IS LACK OF DEMAND. However my point of disagreement is you will not find your home in Del Mar because even with distress in Del Mar and depreciation in Del Mar (which will happen by the way), unless you want to live on Mango or on Del Mar Heights, pricing will always be unrealistic based on other areas. Will it go down? Yes. Will it be affordable? Perhaps if you make a couple hundred large a year and have a nice fat down payment ready.

Sadly there are just some places in San Diego that will be unattainable for people even after the depreciation cycle. That is the point I was making.

SD Realtor

[jpinpb]

SD Realtor – Don’t you think that many of these homes in foreclosure WERE affordable by many w/the teaser rate? It became unaffordable when the rates set. Also, we cannot dimiss entirely the rate of appreciation in a very short time was caused by so many factors. Hence, don’t you think the unjustified price increase will decrease. If you factor everything that caused the bubble, don’t you think we can expect homes to decrease and become affordable.

I think we have to speak in relative terms, of course. Will someone earning a median income be able to afford a home in RSF. Probably not. Certainly they can easily afford City Heights, but probably prefer not to. But, if their expectations are adjusted along w/the price of homes, they may be happy and be able to afford a home in a median priced neighborhood, maybe w/a little effort, an upper/median neighborhood.

[SD Realtor]

The homes were never affordable. Temporary affordability does not make a home affordable, it just is like putting honey on tar paper. People bought homes they could not afford thinking that they would eventually afford them because of appreciation.

I think many are missing my point. That happens to me alot because I don’t make them well.

Of course prices will go down. That goes without saying and if you ever find a post I have made out of the thousands of posts I have where I said otherwise then dinner is on me JP. Nor did I say that homes will not be affordable. However affordability for me is different then affordability for say Raptorduck who is currently looking at million dollar homes.

AFFORDABILITY IS RELATIVE.

Try as I may to buy a home in Fairbanks Ranch, I will never be able to afford it. Nor would I be stupid enough to if some pinhead broker waived a teaser rate at me. I am not that dumb. Nor will I make myself a home on the beach in Del Mar unless I win the lottery. This is true no matter how “affordable” these homes will become.

JP here is what I was arguing about…Look at what Josh wrote….

Essentially it was,

“if it is that bad, when will I get my beach condo in Del Mar.”

My answer to that is unless you make a very good living, or have a very rich uncle, the answer is never. The same is true for me.

The argument is not that higher end places will not depreciate. They will. Everything will. Please try to understand the point. Affordability varies for each region and it certainly varies for each buyer. I don’t measure affordability by anything EXCEPT WHAT I CAN AFFORD. I am a realist and know that no matter what, there are places that just will be and will always be out of my reach.

SD Realtor

[Casca]

SD, you make your points very well, and you’re one of the reasons why this is such a great blog.

[jpinpb]

I understand your point SD Realtor. I think I may have misunderstood and I was actually have the same thoughts, that affordability is relative.

[jpinpb]

I understand your point SD Realtor. I think I may have misunderstood and I was actually have the same thoughts, that affordability is relative.

[jpinpb]

I understand your point SD Realtor. I think I may have misunderstood and I was actually have the same thoughts, that affordability is relative.

[jpinpb]

I understand your point SD Realtor. I think I may have misunderstood and I was actually have the same thoughts, that affordability is relative.

[jpinpb]

I understand your point SD Realtor. I think I may have misunderstood and I was actually have the same thoughts, that affordability is relative.

[Casca]

SD, you make your points very well, and you’re one of the reasons why this is such a great blog.

[Casca]

SD, you make your points very well, and you’re one of the reasons why this is such a great blog.

[Casca]

SD, you make your points very well, and you’re one of the reasons why this is such a great blog.

[Casca]

SD, you make your points very well, and you’re one of the reasons why this is such a great blog.

[SD Realtor]

The homes were never affordable. Temporary affordability does not make a home affordable, it just is like putting honey on tar paper. People bought homes they could not afford thinking that they would eventually afford them because of appreciation.

I think many are missing my point. That happens to me alot because I don’t make them well.

Of course prices will go down. That goes without saying and if you ever find a post I have made out of the thousands of posts I have where I said otherwise then dinner is on me JP. Nor did I say that homes will not be affordable. However affordability for me is different then affordability for say Raptorduck who is currently looking at million dollar homes.

AFFORDABILITY IS RELATIVE.

Try as I may to buy a home in Fairbanks Ranch, I will never be able to afford it. Nor would I be stupid enough to if some pinhead broker waived a teaser rate at me. I am not that dumb. Nor will I make myself a home on the beach in Del Mar unless I win the lottery. This is true no matter how “affordable” these homes will become.

JP here is what I was arguing about…Look at what Josh wrote….

Essentially it was,

“if it is that bad, when will I get my beach condo in Del Mar.”

My answer to that is unless you make a very good living, or have a very rich uncle, the answer is never. The same is true for me.

The argument is not that higher end places will not depreciate. They will. Everything will. Please try to understand the point. Affordability varies for each region and it certainly varies for each buyer. I don’t measure affordability by anything EXCEPT WHAT I CAN AFFORD. I am a realist and know that no matter what, there are places that just will be and will always be out of my reach.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

The homes were never affordable. Temporary affordability does not make a home affordable, it just is like putting honey on tar paper. People bought homes they could not afford thinking that they would eventually afford them because of appreciation.

I think many are missing my point. That happens to me alot because I don’t make them well.

Of course prices will go down. That goes without saying and if you ever find a post I have made out of the thousands of posts I have where I said otherwise then dinner is on me JP. Nor did I say that homes will not be affordable. However affordability for me is different then affordability for say Raptorduck who is currently looking at million dollar homes.

AFFORDABILITY IS RELATIVE.

Try as I may to buy a home in Fairbanks Ranch, I will never be able to afford it. Nor would I be stupid enough to if some pinhead broker waived a teaser rate at me. I am not that dumb. Nor will I make myself a home on the beach in Del Mar unless I win the lottery. This is true no matter how “affordable” these homes will become.

JP here is what I was arguing about…Look at what Josh wrote….

Essentially it was,

“if it is that bad, when will I get my beach condo in Del Mar.”

My answer to that is unless you make a very good living, or have a very rich uncle, the answer is never. The same is true for me.

The argument is not that higher end places will not depreciate. They will. Everything will. Please try to understand the point. Affordability varies for each region and it certainly varies for each buyer. I don’t measure affordability by anything EXCEPT WHAT I CAN AFFORD. I am a realist and know that no matter what, there are places that just will be and will always be out of my reach.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

The homes were never affordable. Temporary affordability does not make a home affordable, it just is like putting honey on tar paper. People bought homes they could not afford thinking that they would eventually afford them because of appreciation.

I think many are missing my point. That happens to me alot because I don’t make them well.

Of course prices will go down. That goes without saying and if you ever find a post I have made out of the thousands of posts I have where I said otherwise then dinner is on me JP. Nor did I say that homes will not be affordable. However affordability for me is different then affordability for say Raptorduck who is currently looking at million dollar homes.

AFFORDABILITY IS RELATIVE.

Try as I may to buy a home in Fairbanks Ranch, I will never be able to afford it. Nor would I be stupid enough to if some pinhead broker waived a teaser rate at me. I am not that dumb. Nor will I make myself a home on the beach in Del Mar unless I win the lottery. This is true no matter how “affordable” these homes will become.

JP here is what I was arguing about…Look at what Josh wrote….

Essentially it was,

“if it is that bad, when will I get my beach condo in Del Mar.”

My answer to that is unless you make a very good living, or have a very rich uncle, the answer is never. The same is true for me.

The argument is not that higher end places will not depreciate. They will. Everything will. Please try to understand the point. Affordability varies for each region and it certainly varies for each buyer. I don’t measure affordability by anything EXCEPT WHAT I CAN AFFORD. I am a realist and know that no matter what, there are places that just will be and will always be out of my reach.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

The homes were never affordable. Temporary affordability does not make a home affordable, it just is like putting honey on tar paper. People bought homes they could not afford thinking that they would eventually afford them because of appreciation.

I think many are missing my point. That happens to me alot because I don’t make them well.

Of course prices will go down. That goes without saying and if you ever find a post I have made out of the thousands of posts I have where I said otherwise then dinner is on me JP. Nor did I say that homes will not be affordable. However affordability for me is different then affordability for say Raptorduck who is currently looking at million dollar homes.

AFFORDABILITY IS RELATIVE.

Try as I may to buy a home in Fairbanks Ranch, I will never be able to afford it. Nor would I be stupid enough to if some pinhead broker waived a teaser rate at me. I am not that dumb. Nor will I make myself a home on the beach in Del Mar unless I win the lottery. This is true no matter how “affordable” these homes will become.

JP here is what I was arguing about…Look at what Josh wrote….

Essentially it was,

“if it is that bad, when will I get my beach condo in Del Mar.”

My answer to that is unless you make a very good living, or have a very rich uncle, the answer is never. The same is true for me.

The argument is not that higher end places will not depreciate. They will. Everything will. Please try to understand the point. Affordability varies for each region and it certainly varies for each buyer. I don’t measure affordability by anything EXCEPT WHAT I CAN AFFORD. I am a realist and know that no matter what, there are places that just will be and will always be out of my reach.

SD Realtor

[jpinpb]

SD Realtor – Don’t you think that many of these homes in foreclosure WERE affordable by many w/the teaser rate? It became unaffordable when the rates set. Also, we cannot dimiss entirely the rate of appreciation in a very short time was caused by so many factors. Hence, don’t you think the unjustified price increase will decrease. If you factor everything that caused the bubble, don’t you think we can expect homes to decrease and become affordable.

I think we have to speak in relative terms, of course. Will someone earning a median income be able to afford a home in RSF. Probably not. Certainly they can easily afford City Heights, but probably prefer not to. But, if their expectations are adjusted along w/the price of homes, they may be happy and be able to afford a home in a median priced neighborhood, maybe w/a little effort, an upper/median neighborhood.

[jpinpb]

SD Realtor – Don’t you think that many of these homes in foreclosure WERE affordable by many w/the teaser rate? It became unaffordable when the rates set. Also, we cannot dimiss entirely the rate of appreciation in a very short time was caused by so many factors. Hence, don’t you think the unjustified price increase will decrease. If you factor everything that caused the bubble, don’t you think we can expect homes to decrease and become affordable.

I think we have to speak in relative terms, of course. Will someone earning a median income be able to afford a home in RSF. Probably not. Certainly they can easily afford City Heights, but probably prefer not to. But, if their expectations are adjusted along w/the price of homes, they may be happy and be able to afford a home in a median priced neighborhood, maybe w/a little effort, an upper/median neighborhood.

[jpinpb]

SD Realtor – Don’t you think that many of these homes in foreclosure WERE affordable by many w/the teaser rate? It became unaffordable when the rates set. Also, we cannot dimiss entirely the rate of appreciation in a very short time was caused by so many factors. Hence, don’t you think the unjustified price increase will decrease. If you factor everything that caused the bubble, don’t you think we can expect homes to decrease and become affordable.

I think we have to speak in relative terms, of course. Will someone earning a median income be able to afford a home in RSF. Probably not. Certainly they can easily afford City Heights, but probably prefer not to. But, if their expectations are adjusted along w/the price of homes, they may be happy and be able to afford a home in a median priced neighborhood, maybe w/a little effort, an upper/median neighborhood.

[jpinpb]

SD Realtor – Don’t you think that many of these homes in foreclosure WERE affordable by many w/the teaser rate? It became unaffordable when the rates set. Also, we cannot dimiss entirely the rate of appreciation in a very short time was caused by so many factors. Hence, don’t you think the unjustified price increase will decrease. If you factor everything that caused the bubble, don’t you think we can expect homes to decrease and become affordable.

I think we have to speak in relative terms, of course. Will someone earning a median income be able to afford a home in RSF. Probably not. Certainly they can easily afford City Heights, but probably prefer not to. But, if their expectations are adjusted along w/the price of homes, they may be happy and be able to afford a home in a median priced neighborhood, maybe w/a little effort, an upper/median neighborhood.

[barnaby33]

I’m willing to bet the guy who bought my future home in 1990 didn’t imagine he’d be selling it for LESS money 8 years later. I mean, it is in Del Mar. Some places will never be affordable.

Just so you know, it seems so patently obvious that afford-ability is relative, that I didn’t think I had to mention it. For someone with a good income, zero debt and an 80k down payment, I figure a unit in this development in the low 400’s is not unreasonable when things get bad. I could be wrong, time will tell.

Josh

[barnaby33]

I’m willing to bet the guy who bought my future home in 1990 didn’t imagine he’d be selling it for LESS money 8 years later. I mean, it is in Del Mar. Some places will never be affordable.

Just so you know, it seems so patently obvious that afford-ability is relative, that I didn’t think I had to mention it. For someone with a good income, zero debt and an 80k down payment, I figure a unit in this development in the low 400’s is not unreasonable when things get bad. I could be wrong, time will tell.

Josh

[barnaby33]

I’m willing to bet the guy who bought my future home in 1990 didn’t imagine he’d be selling it for LESS money 8 years later. I mean, it is in Del Mar. Some places will never be affordable.

Just so you know, it seems so patently obvious that afford-ability is relative, that I didn’t think I had to mention it. For someone with a good income, zero debt and an 80k down payment, I figure a unit in this development in the low 400’s is not unreasonable when things get bad. I could be wrong, time will tell.

Josh

[barnaby33]

I’m willing to bet the guy who bought my future home in 1990 didn’t imagine he’d be selling it for LESS money 8 years later. I mean, it is in Del Mar. Some places will never be affordable.

Just so you know, it seems so patently obvious that afford-ability is relative, that I didn’t think I had to mention it. For someone with a good income, zero debt and an 80k down payment, I figure a unit in this development in the low 400’s is not unreasonable when things get bad. I could be wrong, time will tell.

Josh

[barnaby33]

I’m willing to bet the guy who bought my future home in 1990 didn’t imagine he’d be selling it for LESS money 8 years later. I mean, it is in Del Mar. Some places will never be affordable.

Just so you know, it seems so patently obvious that afford-ability is relative, that I didn’t think I had to mention it. For someone with a good income, zero debt and an 80k down payment, I figure a unit in this development in the low 400’s is not unreasonable when things get bad. I could be wrong, time will tell.

Josh

[SD Realtor]

Josh I can pick plenty of REO properties that are unaffordable.

Yes distress does lead to affordability. That is not what I was disagreeing with. Yet if you think you will get your home in Del Mar at what you may deem affordable, you are mistaken. That is the point I was trying to make.

Point number 2, distress also happens when people bought homes who should not have bought homes. What is affordable to some is not affordable to others. People are defaulting on 200k condos just as well as 2M dollar homes. Distress happens moreso because of that then anything else. Now a phenomenah of people handing in their keys because the asset has depreciated so much is a different issue altogether.

My disagreement with you is not that distress doesn’t bredd lower pricing because it does as long AS THERE IS LACK OF DEMAND. However my point of disagreement is you will not find your home in Del Mar because even with distress in Del Mar and depreciation in Del Mar (which will happen by the way), unless you want to live on Mango or on Del Mar Heights, pricing will always be unrealistic based on other areas. Will it go down? Yes. Will it be affordable? Perhaps if you make a couple hundred large a year and have a nice fat down payment ready.

Sadly there are just some places in San Diego that will be unattainable for people even after the depreciation cycle. That is the point I was making.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Josh I can pick plenty of REO properties that are unaffordable.

Yes distress does lead to affordability. That is not what I was disagreeing with. Yet if you think you will get your home in Del Mar at what you may deem affordable, you are mistaken. That is the point I was trying to make.

Point number 2, distress also happens when people bought homes who should not have bought homes. What is affordable to some is not affordable to others. People are defaulting on 200k condos just as well as 2M dollar homes. Distress happens moreso because of that then anything else. Now a phenomenah of people handing in their keys because the asset has depreciated so much is a different issue altogether.

My disagreement with you is not that distress doesn’t bredd lower pricing because it does as long AS THERE IS LACK OF DEMAND. However my point of disagreement is you will not find your home in Del Mar because even with distress in Del Mar and depreciation in Del Mar (which will happen by the way), unless you want to live on Mango or on Del Mar Heights, pricing will always be unrealistic based on other areas. Will it go down? Yes. Will it be affordable? Perhaps if you make a couple hundred large a year and have a nice fat down payment ready.

Sadly there are just some places in San Diego that will be unattainable for people even after the depreciation cycle. That is the point I was making.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Josh I can pick plenty of REO properties that are unaffordable.

Yes distress does lead to affordability. That is not what I was disagreeing with. Yet if you think you will get your home in Del Mar at what you may deem affordable, you are mistaken. That is the point I was trying to make.

Point number 2, distress also happens when people bought homes who should not have bought homes. What is affordable to some is not affordable to others. People are defaulting on 200k condos just as well as 2M dollar homes. Distress happens moreso because of that then anything else. Now a phenomenah of people handing in their keys because the asset has depreciated so much is a different issue altogether.

My disagreement with you is not that distress doesn’t bredd lower pricing because it does as long AS THERE IS LACK OF DEMAND. However my point of disagreement is you will not find your home in Del Mar because even with distress in Del Mar and depreciation in Del Mar (which will happen by the way), unless you want to live on Mango or on Del Mar Heights, pricing will always be unrealistic based on other areas. Will it go down? Yes. Will it be affordable? Perhaps if you make a couple hundred large a year and have a nice fat down payment ready.

Sadly there are just some places in San Diego that will be unattainable for people even after the depreciation cycle. That is the point I was making.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Josh I can pick plenty of REO properties that are unaffordable.

Yes distress does lead to affordability. That is not what I was disagreeing with. Yet if you think you will get your home in Del Mar at what you may deem affordable, you are mistaken. That is the point I was trying to make.

Point number 2, distress also happens when people bought homes who should not have bought homes. What is affordable to some is not affordable to others. People are defaulting on 200k condos just as well as 2M dollar homes. Distress happens moreso because of that then anything else. Now a phenomenah of people handing in their keys because the asset has depreciated so much is a different issue altogether.

My disagreement with you is not that distress doesn’t bredd lower pricing because it does as long AS THERE IS LACK OF DEMAND. However my point of disagreement is you will not find your home in Del Mar because even with distress in Del Mar and depreciation in Del Mar (which will happen by the way), unless you want to live on Mango or on Del Mar Heights, pricing will always be unrealistic based on other areas. Will it go down? Yes. Will it be affordable? Perhaps if you make a couple hundred large a year and have a nice fat down payment ready.

Sadly there are just some places in San Diego that will be unattainable for people even after the depreciation cycle. That is the point I was making.

SD Realtor

[barnaby33]

So you cherry pick one area (one of the more desirable) to make your point, but then back track and agree me in the end, whats a boy to do?

First off San Diego will not be saved by CV and its environs. You’ll note in my original post, I asked bugs to name names on areas where this 70% figure is true. Finally distress DOES breed afford-ability; they are two sides of the same coin. If prices were lower there wouldn’t be REO’s.

I think we can all pretty safely agree that SD is not Detroit. This means that there is always a price greater than zero at which ANY property here can be sold. Now given that as my axiom, I posit the corollary if an REO exists, it does so only to the extent that it was not affordable. Thats why it became an REO. The distress happened prior to the foreclosure. Foreclosure is just a way for the bank to dictate the terms. Are you telling me that the bank kept the price the same as the seller who lost it?

All of which is really tangential since the whole point I made was that on a macro level distress breeds lower prices as lenders don’t want to hold houses and will in most cases keep cutting the price till it sells.

Rot always starts at the outside and works in. Temecula is North county later this year and central SD next year.

Josh

[barnaby33]

So you cherry pick one area (one of the more desirable) to make your point, but then back track and agree me in the end, whats a boy to do?

First off San Diego will not be saved by CV and its environs. You’ll note in my original post, I asked bugs to name names on areas where this 70% figure is true. Finally distress DOES breed afford-ability; they are two sides of the same coin. If prices were lower there wouldn’t be REO’s.

I think we can all pretty safely agree that SD is not Detroit. This means that there is always a price greater than zero at which ANY property here can be sold. Now given that as my axiom, I posit the corollary if an REO exists, it does so only to the extent that it was not affordable. Thats why it became an REO. The distress happened prior to the foreclosure. Foreclosure is just a way for the bank to dictate the terms. Are you telling me that the bank kept the price the same as the seller who lost it?

All of which is really tangential since the whole point I made was that on a macro level distress breeds lower prices as lenders don’t want to hold houses and will in most cases keep cutting the price till it sells.

Rot always starts at the outside and works in. Temecula is North county later this year and central SD next year.

Josh

[barnaby33]

So you cherry pick one area (one of the more desirable) to make your point, but then back track and agree me in the end, whats a boy to do?

First off San Diego will not be saved by CV and its environs. You’ll note in my original post, I asked bugs to name names on areas where this 70% figure is true. Finally distress DOES breed afford-ability; they are two sides of the same coin. If prices were lower there wouldn’t be REO’s.

I think we can all pretty safely agree that SD is not Detroit. This means that there is always a price greater than zero at which ANY property here can be sold. Now given that as my axiom, I posit the corollary if an REO exists, it does so only to the extent that it was not affordable. Thats why it became an REO. The distress happened prior to the foreclosure. Foreclosure is just a way for the bank to dictate the terms. Are you telling me that the bank kept the price the same as the seller who lost it?

All of which is really tangential since the whole point I made was that on a macro level distress breeds lower prices as lenders don’t want to hold houses and will in most cases keep cutting the price till it sells.

Rot always starts at the outside and works in. Temecula is North county later this year and central SD next year.

Josh

[barnaby33]

So you cherry pick one area (one of the more desirable) to make your point, but then back track and agree me in the end, whats a boy to do?

First off San Diego will not be saved by CV and its environs. You’ll note in my original post, I asked bugs to name names on areas where this 70% figure is true. Finally distress DOES breed afford-ability; they are two sides of the same coin. If prices were lower there wouldn’t be REO’s.

I think we can all pretty safely agree that SD is not Detroit. This means that there is always a price greater than zero at which ANY property here can be sold. Now given that as my axiom, I posit the corollary if an REO exists, it does so only to the extent that it was not affordable. Thats why it became an REO. The distress happened prior to the foreclosure. Foreclosure is just a way for the bank to dictate the terms. Are you telling me that the bank kept the price the same as the seller who lost it?

All of which is really tangential since the whole point I made was that on a macro level distress breeds lower prices as lenders don’t want to hold houses and will in most cases keep cutting the price till it sells.

Rot always starts at the outside and works in. Temecula is North county later this year and central SD next year.

Josh

[SD Realtor]

Not agreeing with you at all Josh. REO homes in CV on Caminito Stella and on Mesa Norte were priced over 1.4 and 1.8M respectively. The home on Mesa Norte stood firm on offers and received several offers and did not take any of them until they got one at 1.8M.

What Bugs posted most likely rings true for some areas yet you don’t really care about those areas because you would never buy there would you? Read my CV/4S monitor. My last posted showed over 40% of the 4S listings are either shorts or REO. Yet would you call those affordable? I would not yet but yeah in about 2-3 years it very well could be.

Yes distress does lead to affordability but it is all relative to the region, the demand for that region and how long that region has showed distress.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Not agreeing with you at all Josh. REO homes in CV on Caminito Stella and on Mesa Norte were priced over 1.4 and 1.8M respectively. The home on Mesa Norte stood firm on offers and received several offers and did not take any of them until they got one at 1.8M.

What Bugs posted most likely rings true for some areas yet you don’t really care about those areas because you would never buy there would you? Read my CV/4S monitor. My last posted showed over 40% of the 4S listings are either shorts or REO. Yet would you call those affordable? I would not yet but yeah in about 2-3 years it very well could be.

Yes distress does lead to affordability but it is all relative to the region, the demand for that region and how long that region has showed distress.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Not agreeing with you at all Josh. REO homes in CV on Caminito Stella and on Mesa Norte were priced over 1.4 and 1.8M respectively. The home on Mesa Norte stood firm on offers and received several offers and did not take any of them until they got one at 1.8M.

What Bugs posted most likely rings true for some areas yet you don’t really care about those areas because you would never buy there would you? Read my CV/4S monitor. My last posted showed over 40% of the 4S listings are either shorts or REO. Yet would you call those affordable? I would not yet but yeah in about 2-3 years it very well could be.

Yes distress does lead to affordability but it is all relative to the region, the demand for that region and how long that region has showed distress.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Not agreeing with you at all Josh. REO homes in CV on Caminito Stella and on Mesa Norte were priced over 1.4 and 1.8M respectively. The home on Mesa Norte stood firm on offers and received several offers and did not take any of them until they got one at 1.8M.

What Bugs posted most likely rings true for some areas yet you don’t really care about those areas because you would never buy there would you? Read my CV/4S monitor. My last posted showed over 40% of the 4S listings are either shorts or REO. Yet would you call those affordable? I would not yet but yeah in about 2-3 years it very well could be.

Yes distress does lead to affordability but it is all relative to the region, the demand for that region and how long that region has showed distress.

SD Realtor

[barnaby33]

SD Realtor there is distress because of a lack of afford-ability. Ergo, distress leads to afford-ability over the long run. Ah, the circle of life.

That 70% number just seems to high even in the worst hit zip codes, for how early we are in the foreclosure cycle. I’ve never known Bugs to post anything mildly inflammatory, so taking the source into account alongside the number is alarming.

Josh

[barnaby33]

SD Realtor there is distress because of a lack of afford-ability. Ergo, distress leads to afford-ability over the long run. Ah, the circle of life.

That 70% number just seems to high even in the worst hit zip codes, for how early we are in the foreclosure cycle. I’ve never known Bugs to post anything mildly inflammatory, so taking the source into account alongside the number is alarming.

Josh

[barnaby33]

SD Realtor there is distress because of a lack of afford-ability. Ergo, distress leads to afford-ability over the long run. Ah, the circle of life.

That 70% number just seems to high even in the worst hit zip codes, for how early we are in the foreclosure cycle. I’ve never known Bugs to post anything mildly inflammatory, so taking the source into account alongside the number is alarming.

Josh

[barnaby33]

SD Realtor there is distress because of a lack of afford-ability. Ergo, distress leads to afford-ability over the long run. Ah, the circle of life.

That 70% number just seems to high even in the worst hit zip codes, for how early we are in the foreclosure cycle. I’ve never known Bugs to post anything mildly inflammatory, so taking the source into account alongside the number is alarming.

Josh

[SD Realtor]

Josh don’t mistake distress with affordability.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Josh don’t mistake distress with affordability.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Josh don’t mistake distress with affordability.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Josh don’t mistake distress with affordability.

SD Realtor

[barnaby33]

What market is 70% REO and short sales? If its truly that bad already, dear lard, I will get my beach front condo in Del Mar in the high 300’s.

Seriously 70%? El Cajon, Ramona, Santee? Where are these totally illiquid locked up markets? Name some names Bugs.

Josh

[barnaby33]

What market is 70% REO and short sales? If its truly that bad already, dear lard, I will get my beach front condo in Del Mar in the high 300’s.

Seriously 70%? El Cajon, Ramona, Santee? Where are these totally illiquid locked up markets? Name some names Bugs.

Josh

[barnaby33]

What market is 70% REO and short sales? If its truly that bad already, dear lard, I will get my beach front condo in Del Mar in the high 300’s.

Seriously 70%? El Cajon, Ramona, Santee? Where are these totally illiquid locked up markets? Name some names Bugs.

Josh

[barnaby33]

What market is 70% REO and short sales? If its truly that bad already, dear lard, I will get my beach front condo in Del Mar in the high 300’s.

Seriously 70%? El Cajon, Ramona, Santee? Where are these totally illiquid locked up markets? Name some names Bugs.

Josh

[Bugs]

I think the main thing that has caught me by surprise has been the relative ease with which these lenders have given up over the last few months. I fully expected them to put up more of a fight.

It’s clear that these portions of the market are being dominated and driven by expectations of the lenders. In addition to pricing the REOs, which set the pace for the decline, they also control the pricing on the short sales. A short sale can’t go any lower than it’s lender will allow it to go.

Right now, the REOs and shorts comprise fully 70% of a few of these markets, and I expect that trend to spread. They’re completely in the driver’s seat and everyone else is just along for the ride.

[Bugs]

I think the main thing that has caught me by surprise has been the relative ease with which these lenders have given up over the last few months. I fully expected them to put up more of a fight.

It’s clear that these portions of the market are being dominated and driven by expectations of the lenders. In addition to pricing the REOs, which set the pace for the decline, they also control the pricing on the short sales. A short sale can’t go any lower than it’s lender will allow it to go.

Right now, the REOs and shorts comprise fully 70% of a few of these markets, and I expect that trend to spread. They’re completely in the driver’s seat and everyone else is just along for the ride.

[Bugs]

I think the main thing that has caught me by surprise has been the relative ease with which these lenders have given up over the last few months. I fully expected them to put up more of a fight.

It’s clear that these portions of the market are being dominated and driven by expectations of the lenders. In addition to pricing the REOs, which set the pace for the decline, they also control the pricing on the short sales. A short sale can’t go any lower than it’s lender will allow it to go.

Right now, the REOs and shorts comprise fully 70% of a few of these markets, and I expect that trend to spread. They’re completely in the driver’s seat and everyone else is just along for the ride.

[Bugs]

I think the main thing that has caught me by surprise has been the relative ease with which these lenders have given up over the last few months. I fully expected them to put up more of a fight.

It’s clear that these portions of the market are being dominated and driven by expectations of the lenders. In addition to pricing the REOs, which set the pace for the decline, they also control the pricing on the short sales. A short sale can’t go any lower than it’s lender will allow it to go.

Right now, the REOs and shorts comprise fully 70% of a few of these markets, and I expect that trend to spread. They’re completely in the driver’s seat and everyone else is just along for the ride.

[CAwireman]

“At these prices, where are all the fence sitters, waiting to jump into the market?”

CityD,

Some thoughts that come to mind.
1) Our saturation of people who wanted to own (buy a
home on credit) rose to something like 75%. Please validate my estimate. So one point is that all the people who wanted homes, bought homes.(purchase a home on credit)

2) Fence sitting, is not an easy thing to accomplish. When you want an iPod in the US, you go buy one. Flat panel TV, same. Home, same. It takes discipline to fence sit, and that is not a characteristic commonly found in the US. So,
my WAG is that as a percentage, there aren’t that many fence sitters out there. And, the ones that exist, aren’t going to jump in too early.

3) There are now more people who a) can’t affort a home to begin with due to the astronomically high asking prices compared to salary. b) More people are now walking around with bad credit scores, loads of debt or even a foreclosure or bankruptcy. Banks are paying attention to this now (what a concept)and not freely giving loans out to anyone who walks through the door.

4) As a fence sitter, I can tell you it can be brutal. Especially if you and your spouse don’t see eye to eye on it. (If we don’t by now honey, my friend says that we’ll never be able to buy…..). This is a tough one to negotiate, and there is also peer pressure from friends, relatives, and coworkers. We should all have enough self confidence to chart our own course, but most often, we go along with the pack.

It would be interesting to see the total US and San Diego percentages of home ownership (Owned, or purchasing on credit) for each year for the last 20 years. I believe the percentage exploded in the 2000 and an on years, largely due to loose credit rampant RE speculation. With a saturated “owner” sector, there aren’t as many people buying – they have already purchased, and are either happy or just plain stuck. Those who have purchased (loved) and lost (foreclose, short sell, etc) have a bad taste and aren’t likely to purchase again, even if they could. Bubble sitting is a difficult posture to maintain, and few can endure it, they are few and far between.

Thanks for the post CityD

HiggyBaby

[CAwireman]

“At these prices, where are all the fence sitters, waiting to jump into the market?”

CityD,

Some thoughts that come to mind.
1) Our saturation of people who wanted to own (buy a
home on credit) rose to something like 75%. Please validate my estimate. So one point is that all the people who wanted homes, bought homes.(purchase a home on credit)

2) Fence sitting, is not an easy thing to accomplish. When you want an iPod in the US, you go buy one. Flat panel TV, same. Home, same. It takes discipline to fence sit, and that is not a characteristic commonly found in the US. So,
my WAG is that as a percentage, there aren’t that many fence sitters out there. And, the ones that exist, aren’t going to jump in too early.

3) There are now more people who a) can’t affort a home to begin with due to the astronomically high asking prices compared to salary. b) More people are now walking around with bad credit scores, loads of debt or even a foreclosure or bankruptcy. Banks are paying attention to this now (what a concept)and not freely giving loans out to anyone who walks through the door.

4) As a fence sitter, I can tell you it can be brutal. Especially if you and your spouse don’t see eye to eye on it. (If we don’t by now honey, my friend says that we’ll never be able to buy…..). This is a tough one to negotiate, and there is also peer pressure from friends, relatives, and coworkers. We should all have enough self confidence to chart our own course, but most often, we go along with the pack.

It would be interesting to see the total US and San Diego percentages of home ownership (Owned, or purchasing on credit) for each year for the last 20 years. I believe the percentage exploded in the 2000 and an on years, largely due to loose credit rampant RE speculation. With a saturated “owner” sector, there aren’t as many people buying – they have already purchased, and are either happy or just plain stuck. Those who have purchased (loved) and lost (foreclose, short sell, etc) have a bad taste and aren’t likely to purchase again, even if they could. Bubble sitting is a difficult posture to maintain, and few can endure it, they are few and far between.

Thanks for the post CityD

HiggyBaby

[CAwireman]

“At these prices, where are all the fence sitters, waiting to jump into the market?”

CityD,

Some thoughts that come to mind.
1) Our saturation of people who wanted to own (buy a
home on credit) rose to something like 75%. Please validate my estimate. So one point is that all the people who wanted homes, bought homes.(purchase a home on credit)

2) Fence sitting, is not an easy thing to accomplish. When you want an iPod in the US, you go buy one. Flat panel TV, same. Home, same. It takes discipline to fence sit, and that is not a characteristic commonly found in the US. So,
my WAG is that as a percentage, there aren’t that many fence sitters out there. And, the ones that exist, aren’t going to jump in too early.

3) There are now more people who a) can’t affort a home to begin with due to the astronomically high asking prices compared to salary. b) More people are now walking around with bad credit scores, loads of debt or even a foreclosure or bankruptcy. Banks are paying attention to this now (what a concept)and not freely giving loans out to anyone who walks through the door.

4) As a fence sitter, I can tell you it can be brutal. Especially if you and your spouse don’t see eye to eye on it. (If we don’t by now honey, my friend says that we’ll never be able to buy…..). This is a tough one to negotiate, and there is also peer pressure from friends, relatives, and coworkers. We should all have enough self confidence to chart our own course, but most often, we go along with the pack.

It would be interesting to see the total US and San Diego percentages of home ownership (Owned, or purchasing on credit) for each year for the last 20 years. I believe the percentage exploded in the 2000 and an on years, largely due to loose credit rampant RE speculation. With a saturated “owner” sector, there aren’t as many people buying – they have already purchased, and are either happy or just plain stuck. Those who have purchased (loved) and lost (foreclose, short sell, etc) have a bad taste and aren’t likely to purchase again, even if they could. Bubble sitting is a difficult posture to maintain, and few can endure it, they are few and far between.

Thanks for the post CityD

HiggyBaby

[CAwireman]

“At these prices, where are all the fence sitters, waiting to jump into the market?”

CityD,

Some thoughts that come to mind.
1) Our saturation of people who wanted to own (buy a
home on credit) rose to something like 75%. Please validate my estimate. So one point is that all the people who wanted homes, bought homes.(purchase a home on credit)

2) Fence sitting, is not an easy thing to accomplish. When you want an iPod in the US, you go buy one. Flat panel TV, same. Home, same. It takes discipline to fence sit, and that is not a characteristic commonly found in the US. So,
my WAG is that as a percentage, there aren’t that many fence sitters out there. And, the ones that exist, aren’t going to jump in too early.

3) There are now more people who a) can’t affort a home to begin with due to the astronomically high asking prices compared to salary. b) More people are now walking around with bad credit scores, loads of debt or even a foreclosure or bankruptcy. Banks are paying attention to this now (what a concept)and not freely giving loans out to anyone who walks through the door.

4) As a fence sitter, I can tell you it can be brutal. Especially if you and your spouse don’t see eye to eye on it. (If we don’t by now honey, my friend says that we’ll never be able to buy…..). This is a tough one to negotiate, and there is also peer pressure from friends, relatives, and coworkers. We should all have enough self confidence to chart our own course, but most often, we go along with the pack.

It would be interesting to see the total US and San Diego percentages of home ownership (Owned, or purchasing on credit) for each year for the last 20 years. I believe the percentage exploded in the 2000 and an on years, largely due to loose credit rampant RE speculation. With a saturated “owner” sector, there aren’t as many people buying – they have already purchased, and are either happy or just plain stuck. Those who have purchased (loved) and lost (foreclose, short sell, etc) have a bad taste and aren’t likely to purchase again, even if they could. Bubble sitting is a difficult posture to maintain, and few can endure it, they are few and far between.

Thanks for the post CityD

HiggyBaby

[jpinpb]

I’m a fence sitter. We have good credit and some $$$. We don’t want to go in over our heads and be mortgage slaves, but we have certain criteria that would push us over our comfort level, so we’re waiting so as to not have to compromise too much. I’m being thanked now for not buying 2 to 3 years ago, but that was a problem, pressured to buy. Not so easy to wait for the right one, but I’m sure it will be worth it.

[jpinpb]

I’m a fence sitter. We have good credit and some $$$. We don’t want to go in over our heads and be mortgage slaves, but we have certain criteria that would push us over our comfort level, so we’re waiting so as to not have to compromise too much. I’m being thanked now for not buying 2 to 3 years ago, but that was a problem, pressured to buy. Not so easy to wait for the right one, but I’m sure it will be worth it.

[jpinpb]

I’m a fence sitter. We have good credit and some $$$. We don’t want to go in over our heads and be mortgage slaves, but we have certain criteria that would push us over our comfort level, so we’re waiting so as to not have to compromise too much. I’m being thanked now for not buying 2 to 3 years ago, but that was a problem, pressured to buy. Not so easy to wait for the right one, but I’m sure it will be worth it.

[jpinpb]

I’m a fence sitter. We have good credit and some $$$. We don’t want to go in over our heads and be mortgage slaves, but we have certain criteria that would push us over our comfort level, so we’re waiting so as to not have to compromise too much. I’m being thanked now for not buying 2 to 3 years ago, but that was a problem, pressured to buy. Not so easy to wait for the right one, but I’m sure it will be worth it.

[jpinpb]

I’m a fence sitter. We have good credit and some $$$. We don’t want to go in over our heads and be mortgage slaves, but we have certain criteria that would push us over our comfort level, so we’re waiting so as to not have to compromise too much. I’m being thanked now for not buying 2 to 3 years ago, but that was a problem, pressured to buy. Not so easy to wait for the right one, but I’m sure it will be worth it.

[rbeast]

SD Realtor – you & some others on this board are the cool voices of reason that keep me coming back for more – thanks!

[SD Realtor]

Josh as you can see I took your post quite literally. The property you mentioned is not beachfront. I consider beachfront to be you open your sliding glass door and walk out onto your yard and there is nothing between you and the beach… Perhaps a rock breakwater wall.

Yes this property “MAY” indeed fall all the way to the sales price of the 332k that it sold for in 1998. I bet it does not but I guess we will see. However it is not a beachfront condo.

SD Realtor

[barnaby33]

Beach front it is not, at least by your definition. It is a 5 minute walk to the beach. I don’t anticipate it falling back to its 98 purchase price, but back to its assessed value seems pretty in the ballpark, on a similar unit.

The whole point of this exercise was to state that, dear lard, if there are zip codes that are already 70% REO and short sales, even the lilly white parts of town are going to take a severe beat down. Its just going to take longer.

If I’m wrong, well then I still have my dream. If I’m right then all my years of living in sub-standard areas (Northpark currently) will have been repaid.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Beach front it is not, at least by your definition. It is a 5 minute walk to the beach. I don’t anticipate it falling back to its 98 purchase price, but back to its assessed value seems pretty in the ballpark, on a similar unit.

The whole point of this exercise was to state that, dear lard, if there are zip codes that are already 70% REO and short sales, even the lilly white parts of town are going to take a severe beat down. Its just going to take longer.

If I’m wrong, well then I still have my dream. If I’m right then all my years of living in sub-standard areas (Northpark currently) will have been repaid.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Beach front it is not, at least by your definition. It is a 5 minute walk to the beach. I don’t anticipate it falling back to its 98 purchase price, but back to its assessed value seems pretty in the ballpark, on a similar unit.

The whole point of this exercise was to state that, dear lard, if there are zip codes that are already 70% REO and short sales, even the lilly white parts of town are going to take a severe beat down. Its just going to take longer.

If I’m wrong, well then I still have my dream. If I’m right then all my years of living in sub-standard areas (Northpark currently) will have been repaid.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Beach front it is not, at least by your definition. It is a 5 minute walk to the beach. I don’t anticipate it falling back to its 98 purchase price, but back to its assessed value seems pretty in the ballpark, on a similar unit.

The whole point of this exercise was to state that, dear lard, if there are zip codes that are already 70% REO and short sales, even the lilly white parts of town are going to take a severe beat down. Its just going to take longer.

If I’m wrong, well then I still have my dream. If I’m right then all my years of living in sub-standard areas (Northpark currently) will have been repaid.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Beach front it is not, at least by your definition. It is a 5 minute walk to the beach. I don’t anticipate it falling back to its 98 purchase price, but back to its assessed value seems pretty in the ballpark, on a similar unit.

The whole point of this exercise was to state that, dear lard, if there are zip codes that are already 70% REO and short sales, even the lilly white parts of town are going to take a severe beat down. Its just going to take longer.

If I’m wrong, well then I still have my dream. If I’m right then all my years of living in sub-standard areas (Northpark currently) will have been repaid.

Josh

[SD Realtor]

Josh as you can see I took your post quite literally. The property you mentioned is not beachfront. I consider beachfront to be you open your sliding glass door and walk out onto your yard and there is nothing between you and the beach… Perhaps a rock breakwater wall.

Yes this property “MAY” indeed fall all the way to the sales price of the 332k that it sold for in 1998. I bet it does not but I guess we will see. However it is not a beachfront condo.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Josh as you can see I took your post quite literally. The property you mentioned is not beachfront. I consider beachfront to be you open your sliding glass door and walk out onto your yard and there is nothing between you and the beach… Perhaps a rock breakwater wall.

Yes this property “MAY” indeed fall all the way to the sales price of the 332k that it sold for in 1998. I bet it does not but I guess we will see. However it is not a beachfront condo.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Josh as you can see I took your post quite literally. The property you mentioned is not beachfront. I consider beachfront to be you open your sliding glass door and walk out onto your yard and there is nothing between you and the beach… Perhaps a rock breakwater wall.

Yes this property “MAY” indeed fall all the way to the sales price of the 332k that it sold for in 1998. I bet it does not but I guess we will see. However it is not a beachfront condo.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Josh as you can see I took your post quite literally. The property you mentioned is not beachfront. I consider beachfront to be you open your sliding glass door and walk out onto your yard and there is nothing between you and the beach… Perhaps a rock breakwater wall.

Yes this property “MAY” indeed fall all the way to the sales price of the 332k that it sold for in 1998. I bet it does not but I guess we will see. However it is not a beachfront condo.

SD Realtor

[rbeast]

SD Realtor – you & some others on this board are the cool voices of reason that keep me coming back for more – thanks!

[rbeast]

SD Realtor – you & some others on this board are the cool voices of reason that keep me coming back for more – thanks!

[rbeast]

SD Realtor – you & some others on this board are the cool voices of reason that keep me coming back for more – thanks!

[rbeast]

SD Realtor – you & some others on this board are the cool voices of reason that keep me coming back for more – thanks!

[Author]

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