[scruffydog]

Hey I’m back!
Data hounds: look at the posts earlier in the thread.
Also here’s something from the LA Times today. Interesting quote and supports my earlier post on unemployment in 90s vs now.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-platinum7jul07,0,5564845.story?page=1&coll=la-home-business

The Platinum Triangle wasn’t always on fire. During Southern California’s real estate downturn in the 1990s, Beverly Hills was among the first neighborhoods to slump. From 1989 to 1993 prices declined 40%.

“The last time, the high end was leading the charge on the way down,” says G.U. Krueger, who in the 1990s was the chief economist for the California Assn. of Realtors. “Now things are totally different.”

Krueger notes that the 1990s drop was triggered by job losses amid a broad economic downturn. The current housing malaise is largely driven by an affordability crunch at the lower end of the market, he says, as adjustable-rate loans ratchet higher and lenders tighten standards to counter rising defaults on mortgages.

From LA land blog:
Odd Fact: For all the hype, real estate prices in the “Platinum Triangle” have not kept pace with the rest of L.A. Over the last nine years, median sales prices in the “triangle” are up 127%; prices for all of L.A. County are up 229%.

[scruffydog]

JWM –
Um… have a look at Rich’s recent post: about acting like a jerk
3. While I’m at it, I’m going to add another rule that applies to all topics: don’t be a jerk. By which I mean, if a thread is moving along in a perfectly civil manner, and you post the first highly negative or personal-attack-y response, you’re being a jerk. Stop it. Repeated jerks will be banned from the site.

[scruffydog]

JWM –
Um… have a look at Rich’s recent post: about acting like a jerk
3. While I’m at it, I’m going to add another rule that applies to all topics: don’t be a jerk. By which I mean, if a thread is moving along in a perfectly civil manner, and you post the first highly negative or personal-attack-y response, you’re being a jerk. Stop it. Repeated jerks will be banned from the site.

[scruffydog]

The US consumer, with zero savings, will spend everything they earn and overextend themselves with borrowing to support house and car payments etc. They will do anything and everything to attain and preserve their bigger houses and consumer goods. They simply will not be denied anything.

The ONLY way I can foresee any r/e price reductions is if people are unable to service their debt and that will happen only if unemployment increases to > ~ 8% like the 90s.

As for a blowup like LTCM, the government will come to the rescue again (with our tax money!)

[scruffydog]

The US consumer, with zero savings, will spend everything they earn and overextend themselves with borrowing to support house and car payments etc. They will do anything and everything to attain and preserve their bigger houses and consumer goods. They simply will not be denied anything.

The ONLY way I can foresee any r/e price reductions is if people are unable to service their debt and that will happen only if unemployment increases to > ~ 8% like the 90s.

As for a blowup like LTCM, the government will come to the rescue again (with our tax money!)

[scruffydog]

So your data is a recent drop in CSI and increased inventory?
Ooo such compelling evidence of impending r/e collapse!

[scruffydog]

So your data is a recent drop in CSI and increased inventory?
Ooo such compelling evidence of impending r/e collapse!

[scruffydog]

Thanks Neeta T… “There seems to be just as much corroborating information to support Scruffydog’s comments as there is for ours”.

Yes, yes I know median price has its limitations but that’s mostly what is widely available – at least they separate out lower and higher priced home median figures. Sure inventory is up, absolutely sales are down, but the bottom is not falling out as many of you believe.
House prices are still setting new records here in LA. Some coastal areas are on fire!
I love this quote “ Where is the money coming from? “It’s from everywhere. The movie industry — and not just the stars. Software people, dot-com people. Trust fund babies.”
Happy 4th of July! Here’s some info for you. Enjoy!

http://www.dailynews.com/gregwilcox/ci_6273184
System glitch delays housing numbers
“The news last week that the San Fernando Valley saw a record median house price of $650,000 in May was not all that surprising. The bigger surprise was that it eclipsed the prior record set in April of $637,000.”

http://www.dailynews.com/gregwilcox/ci_6228625
Home prices hold up in area
“Subprime lending concerns continued to drag down home sales across California in May, but prices made modest gains in some areas, including Los Angeles County, a trade association said Monday.
For higher-priced homes, the median increased an annual 6.8 percent.
The report also showed that:
In Los Angeles County, sales fell an annual 16 percent, and the median price increased 2 percent to $580,040.
Jack Kyser, chief economist at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., agreed that the high end of the market seems to be holding up and that the county’s economy is on firm footing.
“L.A. County is one of the bright spots around the state,” he said.”

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/06/micromarket_sna.html
Micro-Market Snapshot: In Manhattan Beach, A “Stable” Market, Still Hot on the Strand
Get used to it: big houses crammed onto little lots, new money driving out laid-back beach attitude, no parking, narrow streets, cool breezes and ocean views — Manhattan Beach is a market unto itself. And the closer to the beach, the stronger the market. “I think the market’s been pretty stable the last six months,” Realtor Kaye Thomas told me today. “The premium properties have actually gone up just a little bit in price.”
Teardown prices on the Strand are in the $6 million range; one nice lot recently sold for $9.5 million, Thomas said. You can find a house under $1 million, east of Sepulveda, if you are lucky. Where is the money coming from? “It’s from everywhere. The movie industry — and not just the stars. Software people, dot-com people. Trust fund babies.”

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/06/santa_monica_sn.html
Santa Monica Snapshot: North of Montana, $5 Million Is the New Normal
Like Westside Bubble, we were surprised when listings broke through the $5-million barrier north of Montana in Santa Monica, and more surprised when the house in question sold above the asking price in, like, 11 minutes.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/06/1995-million-fo.html
$19.95 Million for a Neutra?
We’ve been writing for a while that the high end of L.A. real estate has been pretty strong. If this item in Curbed L.A. is accurate — and they’re usually on the money — the high end market is, as they say on ESPN, en fuego. That is, On Fire.

[scruffydog]

Thanks Neeta T… “There seems to be just as much corroborating information to support Scruffydog’s comments as there is for ours”.

Yes, yes I know median price has its limitations but that’s mostly what is widely available – at least they separate out lower and higher priced home median figures. Sure inventory is up, absolutely sales are down, but the bottom is not falling out as many of you believe.
House prices are still setting new records here in LA. Some coastal areas are on fire!
I love this quote “ Where is the money coming from? “It’s from everywhere. The movie industry — and not just the stars. Software people, dot-com people. Trust fund babies.”
Happy 4th of July! Here’s some info for you. Enjoy!

http://www.dailynews.com/gregwilcox/ci_6273184
System glitch delays housing numbers
“The news last week that the San Fernando Valley saw a record median house price of $650,000 in May was not all that surprising. The bigger surprise was that it eclipsed the prior record set in April of $637,000.”

http://www.dailynews.com/gregwilcox/ci_6228625
Home prices hold up in area
“Subprime lending concerns continued to drag down home sales across California in May, but prices made modest gains in some areas, including Los Angeles County, a trade association said Monday.
For higher-priced homes, the median increased an annual 6.8 percent.
The report also showed that:
In Los Angeles County, sales fell an annual 16 percent, and the median price increased 2 percent to $580,040.
Jack Kyser, chief economist at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., agreed that the high end of the market seems to be holding up and that the county’s economy is on firm footing.
“L.A. County is one of the bright spots around the state,” he said.”

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/06/micromarket_sna.html
Micro-Market Snapshot: In Manhattan Beach, A “Stable” Market, Still Hot on the Strand
Get used to it: big houses crammed onto little lots, new money driving out laid-back beach attitude, no parking, narrow streets, cool breezes and ocean views — Manhattan Beach is a market unto itself. And the closer to the beach, the stronger the market. “I think the market’s been pretty stable the last six months,” Realtor Kaye Thomas told me today. “The premium properties have actually gone up just a little bit in price.”
Teardown prices on the Strand are in the $6 million range; one nice lot recently sold for $9.5 million, Thomas said. You can find a house under $1 million, east of Sepulveda, if you are lucky. Where is the money coming from? “It’s from everywhere. The movie industry — and not just the stars. Software people, dot-com people. Trust fund babies.”

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/06/santa_monica_sn.html
Santa Monica Snapshot: North of Montana, $5 Million Is the New Normal
Like Westside Bubble, we were surprised when listings broke through the $5-million barrier north of Montana in Santa Monica, and more surprised when the house in question sold above the asking price in, like, 11 minutes.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/06/1995-million-fo.html
$19.95 Million for a Neutra?
We’ve been writing for a while that the high end of L.A. real estate has been pretty strong. If this item in Curbed L.A. is accurate — and they’re usually on the money — the high end market is, as they say on ESPN, en fuego. That is, On Fire.

[scruffydog]

I did not state that everyone should run out and buy real estate today – unless you love the property and are going to live in it awhile. I’m guessing we are at a cycle peak – prices will be flat for awhile. What I am trying to convey is that the market will NOT collapse as many of you want. The economy and most importantly the job market remain very healthy and wishing it were not so will not change reality.

[scruffydog]

I did not state that everyone should run out and buy real estate today – unless you love the property and are going to live in it awhile. I’m guessing we are at a cycle peak – prices will be flat for awhile. What I am trying to convey is that the market will NOT collapse as many of you want. The economy and most importantly the job market remain very healthy and wishing it were not so will not change reality.

[scruffydog]

Thanks for your comments…

Owning real estate out of state greatly increases management problems and costs – not an option for me.

To make IRS happy tax accountants usually recommend owners who convert a rental to a principal residence occupy it for at least 1 year to claim the primary residence exclusion. 5 year ownership requirement is probably correct (not an issue for me).

SDR – What are the tax rules for depreciation recapture with a 1031 exchange with a same value property?

[scruffydog]

Thanks for your comments…

Owning real estate out of state greatly increases management problems and costs – not an option for me.

To make IRS happy tax accountants usually recommend owners who convert a rental to a principal residence occupy it for at least 1 year to claim the primary residence exclusion. 5 year ownership requirement is probably correct (not an issue for me).

SDR – What are the tax rules for depreciation recapture with a 1031 exchange with a same value property?

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