Housing & economy doing great…shut down this site!

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Why buy now? We bought in Fallbrook in 2003 for $425k. During the subsequent run-up, price on our house went all the way to $810k (based on neighborhood comps). Several houses in the neighborhood sold at that point and most of them are either back on the market (and not moving) or in some stage of foreclosure.

Our house has settled back into the mid- to low- $600k range. The five houses in our immediate neighborhood that have been for sale since the beginning of the year are all back off of the market. In talking to the neighbors, only one had a decent offer and the offeror had to back out because they couldn’t qualify for the mortgage. Four of the five houses were for sale for the better part of four to five months with little foot traffic and no serious offers.

While I realize this is anecdotal and not hard data, it does point to the fact that the pool of buyers is getting rapidly smaller due to new lending guidelines (and the higher cost of funds) and the intrasigence of sellers in accepting that this isn’t 2005 (or even 2006).

Once you add in the inventory overhang (with builders slashing prices and offering significant incentives), it would seem that while a crash might not be in the offing, a sizeable “correction” is.

I would definitely wait before taking the plunge, and wait for at least a year, if not 18 months.

[JWM in SD]

Sorry Boob, but I don’t drive only using my rearview mirror.

“If you truly believe your own posts, then you should forget about housing for the next 2-3 years and focus on better things. Why hang around and bash everyone who writes something you don’t agree with?”

BAshing??? I’m not the one who started this thread with the suggestion of shutting this site down.

What you and the other permabull losers need to understand is that there is no compulsion to buy a house…NONE. I don’t have to until I want to do so. More specifically, when rents are more in line with monthly carrying costs.

I will buy when there is blood in streets. When you and RB Engineer start whining about how bad an investment RE is. That’s when I know to buy.

[JWM in SD]

Sorry Boob, but I don’t drive only using my rearview mirror.

“If you truly believe your own posts, then you should forget about housing for the next 2-3 years and focus on better things. Why hang around and bash everyone who writes something you don’t agree with?”

BAshing??? I’m not the one who started this thread with the suggestion of shutting this site down.

What you and the other permabull losers need to understand is that there is no compulsion to buy a house…NONE. I don’t have to until I want to do so. More specifically, when rents are more in line with monthly carrying costs.

I will buy when there is blood in streets. When you and RB Engineer start whining about how bad an investment RE is. That’s when I know to buy.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

jg – regarding public schools on the west side of LA …

In general there are a number of very fine elementary schools. Decent middle schools and high schools are more difficult to find. Santa Monica’s school district is considered very good/excellent. But even there they have some problems.

As for us …We attended a public school in San Diego, but when we moved we had a dilemma … our elementary school was excellent, but the middle school option really sucks. our choice was to send our kids to one of the finer Catholic schools.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

jg – regarding public schools on the west side of LA …

In general there are a number of very fine elementary schools. Decent middle schools and high schools are more difficult to find. Santa Monica’s school district is considered very good/excellent. But even there they have some problems.

As for us …We attended a public school in San Diego, but when we moved we had a dilemma … our elementary school was excellent, but the middle school option really sucks. our choice was to send our kids to one of the finer Catholic schools.

[Anonymous]

Makes sense, Dr. MM/FSD.

Santa Monica, very nice place. Oops, sorry about that S—-.

And, next time, with PD’s prompted rules, it’s C——- schools.

Kind of empty at the chu— on S—– morning in S—- Monica?

[Anonymous]

Makes sense, Dr. MM/FSD.

Santa Monica, very nice place. Oops, sorry about that S—-.

And, next time, with PD’s prompted rules, it’s C——- schools.

Kind of empty at the chu— on S—– morning in S—- Monica?

[cyphire]

I agree – we shouldn’t bash anyone on these forums – we should recognize that it is both an emotional purchase as well as a business purchase in buying a home.

Each person is different and each person has different levels of risk, stability, long term, short term goals, ect. For me (a person who keeps buying and selling with a bit of wanderlust) it would be ludicrous to purchase now. Why? Because I am not sure what my time horizon is. I don’t think that any house I purchase will hold its value (including the cost of selling) over the next 3-8 years.

If I was in it for 10-20 years, it would be a more difficult decision, and for 20 or more years an easier one.

I would like to buy a house – but am too risk adverse right now. I think that from a purely financial point that almost no one should buy now, that is only because I feel (my guess) that while prices might stay stable, there is a very good chance that they will keep going down or plunge. The weighted average of my risk scenarios show a much weaker RE market in the next 2-6 years.

To keep my wife, kids, and myself happy, I committed to a very expensive rental which is still 1/2 of what i would pay for a similar house in today’s market.

If you can afford it and don’t feel that prices will erode too much more, AND are going to stay there for 15 years or more then perhaps you should buy. Of course when I say can afford it, I really mean can afford it. That means at least 20% down, 20% more in the bank, and a mortgage that suits your time horizon. It’s my opinion that most people can’t really afford it… They think that 20% down, almost nothing left in the bank, and getting a second mortgage is normal…. It’s not… It’s very foolish with the potential volatility in the housing market and economy right now.

Just my opinion.

[cyphire]

I agree – we shouldn’t bash anyone on these forums – we should recognize that it is both an emotional purchase as well as a business purchase in buying a home.

Each person is different and each person has different levels of risk, stability, long term, short term goals, ect. For me (a person who keeps buying and selling with a bit of wanderlust) it would be ludicrous to purchase now. Why? Because I am not sure what my time horizon is. I don’t think that any house I purchase will hold its value (including the cost of selling) over the next 3-8 years.

If I was in it for 10-20 years, it would be a more difficult decision, and for 20 or more years an easier one.

I would like to buy a house – but am too risk adverse right now. I think that from a purely financial point that almost no one should buy now, that is only because I feel (my guess) that while prices might stay stable, there is a very good chance that they will keep going down or plunge. The weighted average of my risk scenarios show a much weaker RE market in the next 2-6 years.

To keep my wife, kids, and myself happy, I committed to a very expensive rental which is still 1/2 of what i would pay for a similar house in today’s market.

If you can afford it and don’t feel that prices will erode too much more, AND are going to stay there for 15 years or more then perhaps you should buy. Of course when I say can afford it, I really mean can afford it. That means at least 20% down, 20% more in the bank, and a mortgage that suits your time horizon. It’s my opinion that most people can’t really afford it… They think that 20% down, almost nothing left in the bank, and getting a second mortgage is normal…. It’s not… It’s very foolish with the potential volatility in the housing market and economy right now.

Just my opinion.

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

Cyphire,

Can you let us know where those steep price reductions you spoke of earlier are located?

Also, just a quick note in your above comment — 20% down would not necessitate a second morgage unless a refi is invoved.

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

Cyphire,

Can you let us know where those steep price reductions you spoke of earlier are located?

Also, just a quick note in your above comment — 20% down would not necessitate a second morgage unless a refi is invoved.

[bob2007]

“What you and the other permabull losers need to understand is that there is no compulsion to buy a house…NONE.”

If you really felt that way, you would not post the way you do.

[bob2007]

“What you and the other permabull losers need to understand is that there is no compulsion to buy a house…NONE.”

If you really felt that way, you would not post the way you do.

[cyphire]

Look in Olivenhain (Encinitas), on Lone Jack Road.

I meant that some people who put down 20% to not get hit with PMI really don’t have the cash left over to do anything. So they get a line of credit, and a line of credit is a dangerous thing!

[cyphire]

Look in Olivenhain (Encinitas), on Lone Jack Road.

I meant that some people who put down 20% to not get hit with PMI really don’t have the cash left over to do anything. So they get a line of credit, and a line of credit is a dangerous thing!

[Author]

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