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The-Shoveler.
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July 4, 2007 at 5:53 AM #63902July 4, 2007 at 7:30 AM #63849
HereWeGo
ParticipantIt will be a ‘fun’ Q2 earnings season, beginning next week.
Indeed.
I agree that Goldilocks is alive and well; real estate, well not so much.
July 4, 2007 at 7:30 AM #63906ParticipantIt will be a ‘fun’ Q2 earnings season, beginning next week.
Indeed.
I agree that Goldilocks is alive and well; real estate, well not so much.
July 4, 2007 at 8:28 AM #63857Bugs
ParticipantScrffy’s location (L.A. or O.C) probably has a lot to do with his perspective. Because those areas do have more employment and more diversified employment they are lagging behind the residential areas that support them.
Those more centralized areas haven’t yet reached that tipping point where it’s obvious even to the layperson that there are problems with home values. He cites the median, which we already know is a lagging indicator; he cites anecdotal observations of the retail trends. He doesn’t delve deeper into the median to understand that the data distribution is different or that on a house-to-house basis there are a lot of market segments in those areas that are already demonstrating declines.
These markets are connected, though, and as these trends continue these areas will get sucked further into the declines. Eventually even Scruffy will come to recognize that his house of cards is subject to changes in wind direction and the winds of change are currently blowing from the east.
July 4, 2007 at 8:28 AM #63914ParticipantScrffy’s location (L.A. or O.C) probably has a lot to do with his perspective. Because those areas do have more employment and more diversified employment they are lagging behind the residential areas that support them.
Those more centralized areas haven’t yet reached that tipping point where it’s obvious even to the layperson that there are problems with home values. He cites the median, which we already know is a lagging indicator; he cites anecdotal observations of the retail trends. He doesn’t delve deeper into the median to understand that the data distribution is different or that on a house-to-house basis there are a lot of market segments in those areas that are already demonstrating declines.
These markets are connected, though, and as these trends continue these areas will get sucked further into the declines. Eventually even Scruffy will come to recognize that his house of cards is subject to changes in wind direction and the winds of change are currently blowing from the east.
July 4, 2007 at 8:30 AM #63859Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantThis is a very suspicious post to say the least. Please state a specific residential property or two that was bought in LA last year and sold this year for 6% more. House prices are declining not rising, I have many clients in LA who are in RE related businesses, and not one of them tells me that prices are rising in residential.
I am much less bearish than most here on RE, and have been consistently bullish on stocks for quite some time, but to say that everything is humming along just fine economically is a bit disengenous.
July 4, 2007 at 8:30 AM #63916ParticipantThis is a very suspicious post to say the least. Please state a specific residential property or two that was bought in LA last year and sold this year for 6% more. House prices are declining not rising, I have many clients in LA who are in RE related businesses, and not one of them tells me that prices are rising in residential.
I am much less bearish than most here on RE, and have been consistently bullish on stocks for quite some time, but to say that everything is humming along just fine economically is a bit disengenous.
July 4, 2007 at 9:05 AM #63861JWM in SD
Participant“. Credit / Dept contraction theory has been around for a long time and nothing in the way of a crises has happened.”
Come on Neeta are you F*cking kidding me???? Have you had your head in the sand since march? Over 90 subprime lenders are dead. Have you not heard about the CDO issues in the news and what’s happening with Bear Stearns????
give me a break.
July 4, 2007 at 9:05 AM #63918Participant“. Credit / Dept contraction theory has been around for a long time and nothing in the way of a crises has happened.”
Come on Neeta are you F*cking kidding me???? Have you had your head in the sand since march? Over 90 subprime lenders are dead. Have you not heard about the CDO issues in the news and what’s happening with Bear Stearns????
give me a break.
July 4, 2007 at 9:12 AM #63863DaisyDuke
ParticipantNoh, Noh, Noh, Noh, Noh! LA and OC are seeing tremendous price declines. Many sellers are finally sucking it up and reducing their prices. Verifiable Facts! In Rancho Santa Margarita alone, many homes are short sales. Many listings reference “BIG PRICE REDUCTION” and many of the properties for sale remain vacant. I am personally watching North Orange County inventory and I keep track of it daily — it continues to climb. Certain cities hover at a particular number, but others go up fast.
I also track foreclosure numbers, in particular, REO properties — they are also climbing in San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Riverside, etc. When the banks finally unload the hordes of REOs they are holding on their books, that’s going to do a lot to adjust the median price DOWNWARD.
Then, we have Bear Stearns — even Wall Street is saying their situation is just the tip of the iceberg and that more of the same will occur.
Also, if it is so great, why would government get involved to make laws and protect people’s stupid decisions to get into a home/loan they couldn’t afford? Doesn’t the government have bigger and better things to do?
How is this rosy? Am I missing something?
July 4, 2007 at 9:12 AM #63920ParticipantNoh, Noh, Noh, Noh, Noh! LA and OC are seeing tremendous price declines. Many sellers are finally sucking it up and reducing their prices. Verifiable Facts! In Rancho Santa Margarita alone, many homes are short sales. Many listings reference “BIG PRICE REDUCTION” and many of the properties for sale remain vacant. I am personally watching North Orange County inventory and I keep track of it daily — it continues to climb. Certain cities hover at a particular number, but others go up fast.
I also track foreclosure numbers, in particular, REO properties — they are also climbing in San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Riverside, etc. When the banks finally unload the hordes of REOs they are holding on their books, that’s going to do a lot to adjust the median price DOWNWARD.
Then, we have Bear Stearns — even Wall Street is saying their situation is just the tip of the iceberg and that more of the same will occur.
Also, if it is so great, why would government get involved to make laws and protect people’s stupid decisions to get into a home/loan they couldn’t afford? Doesn’t the government have bigger and better things to do?
How is this rosy? Am I missing something?
July 4, 2007 at 9:18 AM #63865LA_Renter
Participanti put this on a thread but I thought it would be appropriate here;
I know this blog focuses on San Diego but I just came across this graph for the San Fernando Valley. I have to admit it took me by surprise. I didn’t realize sales had basically fallen off a cliff to this degree.
Sales for Single Family homes during April and May were the lowest recorded ever dating back to 1984. They were substantially below April/May sales during the infamous downturn of 90 – 93. Wow! This thing is really starting to hit in LA, finally.
July 4, 2007 at 9:18 AM #63922Participanti put this on a thread but I thought it would be appropriate here;
I know this blog focuses on San Diego but I just came across this graph for the San Fernando Valley. I have to admit it took me by surprise. I didn’t realize sales had basically fallen off a cliff to this degree.
Sales for Single Family homes during April and May were the lowest recorded ever dating back to 1984. They were substantially below April/May sales during the infamous downturn of 90 – 93. Wow! This thing is really starting to hit in LA, finally.
July 4, 2007 at 9:32 AM #63869SD Realtor
Participantscruffydog, apparently you are not going to respond to people who refute your post. I would like you to explain the loss I know of in downtown San Diego. I know of an escrow that just opened. 2004 purchase price was 620k. They are in escrow at 525k… They are lucky. Yesterday I went to a listing and the home was listed as vacant and is in default. When I arrived the sellers were there pulling the washing machine out of it. They had already stripped other things out of it. It is also LISTED on the MLS over 100k less then the purchase price…
Anyways please do not post and run. Try to stand up and defend your points.
SD Realtor
July 4, 2007 at 9:32 AM #63926Participantscruffydog, apparently you are not going to respond to people who refute your post. I would like you to explain the loss I know of in downtown San Diego. I know of an escrow that just opened. 2004 purchase price was 620k. They are in escrow at 525k… They are lucky. Yesterday I went to a listing and the home was listed as vacant and is in default. When I arrived the sellers were there pulling the washing machine out of it. They had already stripped other things out of it. It is also LISTED on the MLS over 100k less then the purchase price…
Anyways please do not post and run. Try to stand up and defend your points.
SD Realtor
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