Housing & economy doing great…shut down this site!

[cr]

Oh the irony – “shut down this site.”

Spoken like a true facist. One who wants to hide the truth that the market is teetering over the edge from anyone who might otherwise buy out of complete ignorance.

If this site wasn’t here, you wouldn’t have a place to make your outlandish claims. You could go on telling your “customers” now is a gerat time to buy or sell.

Besides, we’re quite used to troll comments like yours scruffydog. They’ve been happening since 1928.

Pull your head out of that Manhattan beach sand, and come back in 6 months to see if you’re still as peppy. Then a year, then 2 years, then 3, and 4, and 5, and… well, you get it.

[cr]

Oh the irony – “shut down this site.”

Spoken like a true facist. One who wants to hide the truth that the market is teetering over the edge from anyone who might otherwise buy out of complete ignorance.

If this site wasn’t here, you wouldn’t have a place to make your outlandish claims. You could go on telling your “customers” now is a gerat time to buy or sell.

Besides, we’re quite used to troll comments like yours scruffydog. They’ve been happening since 1928.

Pull your head out of that Manhattan beach sand, and come back in 6 months to see if you’re still as peppy. Then a year, then 2 years, then 3, and 4, and 5, and… well, you get it.

[cyphire]

You didn’t answer back about the north county scruffy…

If my neighbor sold for 2.5M in 2005, I sold for 2.05 in Dec 2006 and 2 new houses came on for 2,095,000 (with a bottom level of 1.8M for one of them) they will sell for sub 2M. If they sell. One is on for 8 months and started at 2.45M. They guy who thought he was going to get out quickly has 8 months of having people come through his house

The real estate company in the area said that it is dead. They had to lease their offices out. They had built out for 15 agents, they are down to 1 full time and 2 part time. They are personally in financial trouble.

A new group of 4 houses which were in the 2M+ are now down to 1.75M and no takers… They just dropped another 100K. Guess hype isn’t talking about San Diego… Glad I bailed when i could!

[cyphire]

You didn’t answer back about the north county scruffy…

If my neighbor sold for 2.5M in 2005, I sold for 2.05 in Dec 2006 and 2 new houses came on for 2,095,000 (with a bottom level of 1.8M for one of them) they will sell for sub 2M. If they sell. One is on for 8 months and started at 2.45M. They guy who thought he was going to get out quickly has 8 months of having people come through his house

The real estate company in the area said that it is dead. They had to lease their offices out. They had built out for 15 agents, they are down to 1 full time and 2 part time. They are personally in financial trouble.

A new group of 4 houses which were in the 2M+ are now down to 1.75M and no takers… They just dropped another 100K. Guess hype isn’t talking about San Diego… Glad I bailed when i could!

[NateK]

Bob2007,

So if I came in and posted some articles from US Weekly and People Magazine showing some celebrities purchasing up multi million dollar homes. And that is my argument on why home prices won’t be declining in LA. And that is my reason why this site should be taken down because everyone is a bunch of bitter renters….You don’t think that raises the troll meter just a little bit.

Sure I don’t mind people sharing their opinions, but Scruffy here seems to have no problems just screaming out the N-Bomb in South Central LA. So sure it would be nice to discuss(Kill him) it with him, But I think that action will just lead to wasted time(Thrown in Jail).

[NateK]

Bob2007,

So if I came in and posted some articles from US Weekly and People Magazine showing some celebrities purchasing up multi million dollar homes. And that is my argument on why home prices won’t be declining in LA. And that is my reason why this site should be taken down because everyone is a bunch of bitter renters….You don’t think that raises the troll meter just a little bit.

Sure I don’t mind people sharing their opinions, but Scruffy here seems to have no problems just screaming out the N-Bomb in South Central LA. So sure it would be nice to discuss(Kill him) it with him, But I think that action will just lead to wasted time(Thrown in Jail).

[JWM in SD]

“JWM,

I don’t think that anyone who shares their opinion should be called a troll. Should we all agree your view is the correct one, and the group go silent for 3 years waiting for it to play out? There are new people joining all the time. This is where they learn. When you lose your objectivity and start attacking the poster, I think is shows a lack of confidence in your belief.”

How many factual posts have been made that refute Scruffy’s assertions there Bob??? Opinion??? No, he’s not posting an opinion, he is posting pure REIC propaganda. If you can’t see that then I take pity you for being such blind fool.

[JWM in SD]

“JWM,

I don’t think that anyone who shares their opinion should be called a troll. Should we all agree your view is the correct one, and the group go silent for 3 years waiting for it to play out? There are new people joining all the time. This is where they learn. When you lose your objectivity and start attacking the poster, I think is shows a lack of confidence in your belief.”

How many factual posts have been made that refute Scruffy’s assertions there Bob??? Opinion??? No, he’s not posting an opinion, he is posting pure REIC propaganda. If you can’t see that then I take pity you for being such blind fool.

[rb_engineer]

I’m not sure if these name calling and scare tactics by the housing bears will convince anyone. Its pretty clear that no one know for sure. There are anecdotal evidence to support both camps. My anecdotal take is that actual selling prices have come down 10% – 20% from the very peak but houses are getting snatched up very quickly if they are at these prices. This would suggest an equilibrium at a price somewhere in between. That is, at least for the current state of the economy.

[rb_engineer]

I’m not sure if these name calling and scare tactics by the housing bears will convince anyone. Its pretty clear that no one know for sure. There are anecdotal evidence to support both camps. My anecdotal take is that actual selling prices have come down 10% – 20% from the very peak but houses are getting snatched up very quickly if they are at these prices. This would suggest an equilibrium at a price somewhere in between. That is, at least for the current state of the economy.

[JWM in SD]

RB-Engineer,

Uh, have you looked at the bubble primer on this site???

3 things make me certain where the housing market is going:

1.) Loan Reset Graph
2.) SD/SoCal Forclosure graph (near vertical)
3.) 90 plus subprime lenders pushing up daisies.

You clowns really crack me up you know. There is more data than you can shake stick at to show where this is going and you morons still don’t get it do you???

Go Buy Some More Houses then and see how that works out for you in 6 months.

[JWM in SD]

RB-Engineer,

Uh, have you looked at the bubble primer on this site???

3 things make me certain where the housing market is going:

1.) Loan Reset Graph
2.) SD/SoCal Forclosure graph (near vertical)
3.) 90 plus subprime lenders pushing up daisies.

You clowns really crack me up you know. There is more data than you can shake stick at to show where this is going and you morons still don’t get it do you???

Go Buy Some More Houses then and see how that works out for you in 6 months.

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

Cyphire,

Where are these homes you mention? At the end of 2006, I was seeing big BIG discounts all over the place but not so much lately.

Case in point: We went to Talega in San Clemente in December. Saw a nice home priced about $1M, the builder was giving an incentive up to about $150K (maybe more) on the house and I believe it was snatched up for $900K’ish with some rate buy-down included. I called Talega recently (just to track the homes) they are down to their phase and selling models at an average price of $1.1M. I was convinced when I saw all the discounting last year and the beginning of this year that we were about to see higher priced homes go down, but to no avail just yet.

I’m hoping prices come down dramatically, but I just keep seeing people jump on the deals and I imagine many may be prepared to hold. Time will tell.

I’m interested though in knowing where these major discount homes are located, I’d like to visit just to get a sense of where the builders are in their willingness to deal.

Hype

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

Cyphire,

Where are these homes you mention? At the end of 2006, I was seeing big BIG discounts all over the place but not so much lately.

Case in point: We went to Talega in San Clemente in December. Saw a nice home priced about $1M, the builder was giving an incentive up to about $150K (maybe more) on the house and I believe it was snatched up for $900K’ish with some rate buy-down included. I called Talega recently (just to track the homes) they are down to their phase and selling models at an average price of $1.1M. I was convinced when I saw all the discounting last year and the beginning of this year that we were about to see higher priced homes go down, but to no avail just yet.

I’m hoping prices come down dramatically, but I just keep seeing people jump on the deals and I imagine many may be prepared to hold. Time will tell.

I’m interested though in knowing where these major discount homes are located, I’d like to visit just to get a sense of where the builders are in their willingness to deal.

Hype

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Scruffy Dog:

Not to appear rude, but what you are saying not only flies in the face of both anecdotal and actual data on the real estate market, but it ignores the bigger macroeconomic picture.

Have you been following the news coming out of Wall Street and the financial markets regarding Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch and the beating they are taking related to their sale of subprime mortgage backed securities? This has now spread to UBS, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs.

These are not Countrywide or New American type outfits schlepping cheap subprime paper. These are blue chip investment houses and they are getting creamed. Bear Stearns is conservatively estimating it’s losses at $3.2B and that is only the beginning. Merrill Lynch had a fire sale and dumped nearly $700MM in bad paper in a four day period to limit their exposure. And it will only get worse from here. This is a very similar situation to what happened in 1998 with Long Term Capital Management (another group of no-miss kinda guys).

Default rates in the Alt.A market (between subprime and prime) are also up considerably as well. Notices of Default, Notices of Trustee Sale and Foreclosure are up, in some instances over 150% on a year-over-year basis.

To say that this is nothing other than a brief flattening of the market is to buy into the “Baghdad Bob” prognostications of Yun and Lereah, both widely discredited and rightfully so.

It is gonna be ugly and we are a LONG way from bottom. I predict we won’t see bottom for another 18 months.

[Author]

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