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[quote=The-Shoveler]Every Costco I go to is completely packed with people filling their carts to the brim every time. [/quote]

The Costco on Scripps Poway Parkway is shockingly uncrowded.

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Spread out here like OP. No trick or treaters this year like most years.

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[quote=harvey]

Why would a third of total healthcare spending just disappear simply because the government is paying the bill instead of insurance companies or private consumers?
[/quote]

Don’t know about a third, but spending will go down just because the government will pay less than commercial insurance, just like Medicare does now.

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[quote=SK in CV]

True with regards to Medicaid for Doctors. Not for non-profit hospitals. They will trade uninsured for Medicaid patients in a heart beat. Check the financial status of non-profit hospitals in states that expanded Medicaid v. those that did not for evidence to support my claim.
[/quote]

It doesn’t support your claim. Trading uninsured for government insured is one thing. Trading rich private insurance for government insurance is another. Providers would take a big hit.

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[quote=SK in CV][quote=livinincali]
That’s exactly the point and why I don’t see the government ever fixing the health care issue in this country. We’re never going to get to single payer because it would create a massive recession in the short term. [/quote]

I don’t buy the recession thing. Wouldn’t happen. Health care jobs won’t disappear. Health care admin jobs won’t disappear. Both will increase. Dramatically.[/quote]

Health systems and doctors make their money off private insurance. They are doing good to break even treating members of government payers (Medicare and Medicaid). Many doctors won’t see these patients because they lose money on them.

Health systems would be put on a serious diet with single payer. Loss of jobs would be unavoidable.

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[quote=flu]Here’s food for thought. If loan standards are still strict, what is allowing people to purchase expensive RE here in SoCal….

Or are we now assuming lending standards aren’t so strict….[/quote]

Here’s food for thought. There’s no inventory. Of course prices are high. It doesn’t matter how strict loan standards are, since not many buyers are needed who can qualify.

Or do you think this is a hot market? Would you say the market for gasoline was hot when the price was $5 per gallon???

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[quote=spdrun]If I were selling and someone wrote a letter, I’d know that they want it bad enough so I can squeeze another few grand out of them :)[/quote]

I admire your greed.

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[quote=harvey]The ultimate irony of the housing bust was that many who purchased at the peak did as well or better than those who waited it out. Just don’t pay your mortgage for a few years while collecting rent, enjoy the RV you bought with the HELOC that was forgiven, get a principle reduction a few years later, and come out ahead of all the “smart” people that stressed over the numbers.[/quote]

Where would the “E” in HELOC have come from if they bought at the peak?

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[quote=Rich Toscano]

I argue that there are some good reasons for this, but whether you agree with those reasons or not, the fact is that rates have had little influence on prices in the past. You are claiming a correlation (a causality, really) that isn’t there.
[/quote]

So you’ve changed your mind from this?:

May-June 2013 Data Rodeo — Price Explosion

“This is big, in my view. Low rates have been a big driver of housing demand, for both investors (who are seeking out yield wherever they can find it) and residents (who are compelled to buy due to the favorable rent-vs-buy comparison enabled by super low rates). This rate increase will almost certainly undercut both sources of demand.”

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[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=bewildering]There is zero chance of a 50% drop in house prices. There is a link between house prices and rent prices. Unless rent prices collapse then house prices will not fall by 50%.

Think about it. Even with a 20% drop in San Diego prices, it makes financial sense to buy a property and rent it out.

‘Nominal’ rental costs have never fallen in San Diego and demand for rentals remains high: http://www.deptofnumbers.com/rent/california/san-diego/%5B/quote%5D

Exactly. The post-bubble plunge happened because prices had become massively unhinged from rents (or incomes or any other fundamental). That’s just not the case now, to anywhere near that degree.

To put some numbers on it, here’s the price decline it would have taken to get to the historical median valuation (price to incomes and rents)… assuming there was no growth in rents/incomes during the price decline:

bubble peak: 42%
now: 16%

Just no comparison. If you are expecting a 50% decline, that means you are expecting prices to fall to their historically typical valuation, and then drop another 44% from that point, which would of course make them far cheaper than they’ve ever gotten. And that assumes no intervening rent/income growth, which of course there would be. It’s a mathematically indefensible forecast.[/quote]

I can’t help but wonder if banks are still holding inventory from their bad loans. If would be buyers can’t find homes to buy they will rent, increasing that demand and cost.

While supply and demand explain current housing costs, do fundamentals? Are there that many more people living here to explain a seemingly significant housing shortage?

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[quote=moneymaker]I apologize as I am responsible for higher medical prices, don’t have a doctor or take medicine so they have to get their money from other people like you. [/quote]

If you have insurance they are getting it from you too. Your premiums are subsidizing the high utilizers.

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For whatever reason my gum numbers got worse after flossing consistently for the first time. So I resolve to try a Waterpik.

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Doesn’t Obama smoke? Trump just doesn’t have the luxury of only being fat in private.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grandiose_delusions

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[quote=LAAFTERHOURS]
Stone I only buy at costco.[/quote]

Stone IPA was in cans recently at the La Mesa Costco. Woo hoo!

[Author]

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