[Reality]

You two really need to get a room.

Has anyone considered the fallout from many office buildings emptying due to the pandemic?  WFH while once a way to contain the spread has become a way of life for many.  What happens to the now unneeded office buildings?  Apartments?  Condos?   Seems like a no brainer.  No they can’t be easily refurbished but as our favorite realtor pointed out the land is what’s valuable.  Bulldoze and replace with housing.

 

 

 

[Reality]

[quote=sdrealtor] Everyone but you and reality. [/quote]

Why calling me out? Does a mobile home where the owners own the park count? My place will probably not double in value in my lifetime but my monthly nut is set.

I may not own a slew of rentals that I like to gloat about on here but I’m also not an asshole.

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[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=XBoxBoy]This thread has been great for me. When this thread was posted, I was tempted, but didn’t sell anything. (instead I have continued my steady dribble of savings into the stock market)

This thread has confirmed for me:
1) that I should never take advice from people on the internet
2) that I am not a speculator, that for me the only viable strategy is buy and hold.
3) I am not able to time the market, not even close.

I need to see these sort of threads to be reminded of these things.[/quote]

Agree x 10[/quote]

Agree x 10 with your agreement. Also I’ve learned:

The government can prop things up more than I thought possible. I thought they did a lot after the 2008 meltdown but that had almost no effect compared to what happened this time. Trillions can do that I guess.

And yes too soon.

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[quote=sdrealtor]

Its just that a different category of buyers is here now than was here before. They are buying things that were virtually unsellable before at anything close to FMV.
[/quote]

Care to re-phrase? Everything always is sellable at FMV.

Now if you mean what you think it’s worth that’s another thing entirely.

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[quote=Rich Toscano]Good stuff xbox, thanks for putting in all this effort. I think the experience of the early 80s can also be interpreted that the inverse relationship between interest rates and asset prices is not written in stone.
[/quote]

Nobody knows how much higher asset prices might have gone without the interest rate policies of the time. Both going up at the same time is evidence of nothing.

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[quote=sdrealtor]Is a year long enough?[/quote]

I can’t find any of your posts disagreeing with the OP at the time of the prediction, yet you continue to bring this thread up with “nah nah nah nah nah” type replies.

I’m not here to defend the OP but a year is certainly not long term. Nobody knows what will happen from here. The only thing I’m certain about is that selling today is better than selling a year ago but that means nothing about the future.

Can you take it as well as you can dish it out?

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With inventory as low as it is is it possible San Diego is actually undervalued when interest rates and inflation explain most of the price difference from the past? What would prices have looked like 30 years ago with such scarce supply?

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This place barely went for more than it did in 2005.

https://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-200054657-4260_Eastridge_Dr_La_Mesa_CA_91941

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[quote=temeculaguy]I will happily call it a bubble right now. Mark my words as I will link this post in the future. The invisible hand has been stymied and nothing good ever comes from that, unless inflation counteracts it. Anecdotal case in point, my son and his wife have lived with me rent free through the pandemic and have a six figure down payment. Yes they are mid to late 20 somethings with degrees and a low six figure combined income and they cannot buy a starter home in Temecula. The last time this happened it was 2006 and we all know how that turned out. Haircuts are coming, the two freshly minted teachers rule is back in play, when two freshly minted teachers cannot buy a condo the bubble bursts, exhurbs get it first and gt it the worst, I smell Deja Vu! I like my house, just signed contracts for solar and tesla powerwalls, already got a fake lawn so I’m staying put but I’ll pick up a rental or two in the next crash, your results may vary. But thee current valuations are not sustainable.

The house I paid 270 for at the bottom in 2008 is worth 700-800, you have got to be kidding me, 500 maybe.[/quote]

Thank you for countering what has become largely a cheerleader blog. I don’t have the energy anymore but liked reading your post.

[Reality]

My team is just as productive but I’ve got good staff. There are drawbacks to remote but I’m not sure they outweigh the positives. I’ve never been one to micromanage and neither has my boss so remote wasn’t that huge a change in that regard.

[Reality]

[quote=sdrealtor]Reality
If you predict something long enough the situation will eventually reach the point where you can claim victory but timing is everything. No one is saying we will never have a correction or down turn again. Of course we will[/quote]

I don’t think the OP put a timeframe for the prediction but I think it’s too early to question how the OP’s prediction was wrong (not saying it was or wasn’t). 7 months is too early to declare it wrong. After 2 years sure.

The government has rightfully really propped things up but we can’t exactly look at market performance and consider it “normal”.

Printing money while sometimes needed doesn’t solve anything. It just gives time.

Mortgage forbearance will end at some point. So will eviction moratoriums. What will be the fallout to commercial real estate with so many companies transitioning to remote work? How will remote work affect our housing market? Will more people move here because the weather is nice or leave because it costs too much?

[Reality]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=davelj]In my view…

The good news is that the banks are *much* better capitalized than they were going into the Financial Crisis. The bad news is that they’re going to need every dime of that capital to stave off a crushing wave of bad commercial and CRE loans. Drive down whatever street near you has a lot of strip malls. I live in Mexico now but I drove down Broadway in Chula Vista the other day and just looked on either side of the street – restaurants, nail/hair salons, small hotels, miscellaneous services and retail… at least 1/3 of these businesses will fail by year-end. They simply do not have the wherewithall to survive. And the others will limp along for years afterward. Virtually all restaurants are fvcked. Even if they can seat using social distancing guidelines, only a small percentage can break even. It could be 18 months before there’s a “normal” restaurant business.

Drive around your town or city. Look around. Think about the businesses that aren’t coming back. Think about the folks whose jobs aren’t coming back for a long time. Think about how behavior is going to change even after things begin to normalize. Think about the leverage and how the banks are going to cope with all of this. Think about what this means for corporate profitability – short-term and long-term and then what that means for nosebleed-level stock valuations.

Meanwhile, our fair-haired Nero fiddles while Rome burns.

Discretion is the better part of valor. Sell.

I could be wrong. But I doubt it.[/quote]

So I just drove down El Camino Real in Encinitas which is basically a mile of strip malls. Pretty much everything is still there. There’s a J Crew that closed up and a Burger King that shut down but everyone else is making it so far. Drove through Downtown Carlsbad and Encinitas a few days ago and same story.

The stock market sits at record highs 7 months later. We have a vaccine and more stimulus coming. Homes around here are selling for insane prices with piles of offers coming in Christmas week. Not just near me but lots of places. Yes Im sure there’s plenty of work and years to clean up but it looks like we are gonna be fine from where I sit. Maybe Im missing something?

So here’s my follow up question for the OP. What happened that you did not foresee? What is the takeaway learning moment here?[/quote]

Even though I’m not the OP and didn’t make any predictions I’ll weigh in. What does 7 months prove? We were in a housing bubble for years until it popped.

[Reality]

[quote=spdrun]Except that Trump sabotaged the two things that would have made reopening schools and businesses possible IN THE ENTIRE COUNTRY — namely (1) a national policy requiring mask use indoors, enforced by states and local authorities and (2) a nationwide rapid ( < 1 day return time) testing and contact-tracing program. If a mask policy was impossible, at the very least, he could have requested that good citizens wear masks -- instead, he turned mask use into a partisan political fucktoy of an issue. [/quote] I only disagree on the national mask mandate, but the rest +1000. We didn't need a mask mandate but did need a little leadership. There is a group of Trump supporters that meet at the corner of Pomerado and Twin Peaks in Poway every Sunday morning. There's a smaller anti Trump (now Biden) group that also shows up. Today the Trump group was much larger than normal, as would be expected. Being stopped at the intersection a short time today I noticed (not surprisingly) consistent mask wearing from the Biden folks and the opposite from the Trump folks.

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So impressed by you fucking tycoons.

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[quote=plm]
Actually I think that selling and buying back later at a lower prices is a way to have even better returns but much riskier since you have to time the market properly. Isn’t it safest to buy and hold and just don’t sell when they market crashes?[/quote]

What if when you need retirement income coincides with the crash?

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