Goodbye to San Diego

[EconProf]

sdr:  Stay calm.  Breath deeply.  Everything will be all right.

I,  probably like most Piggs, learned long ago to take with a grain of salt what realtors tell them.  Their income depends upon convincing people to “Buy now…the data show…you are going to miss the boat…”  C’mon man, as Biden would say.

Your recent posts, actually rants, simply do not correspond to a casual look at the charts shown by Rich at Piggington.  Yes, SD prices are up and down, and generally up over the long term.  But the PPSF and other indicators belie your rabid and angry accusations.   And citing your own taxes, utilities, house appreciation, etc. has little to do with average San Diegans.  Good for you…  You scored.  But then why is San Diego losing population as per latest Census data?  People, and increasingly businesses, are looking at the long term trend before they make the big decision to move, and it is not looking good for CA and recently, San Diego.

You will undoubtedly respond childishly to this post with more cherry-picked data.  But I’ll probably refrain from further postings.  Feel free to declare victory 🙂

[sdrealtor]

It’s funny that you never respond to any of my data or facts.

My livelihood hasn’t depended upon selling real estate for a long time. I’ve not only told people not to buy here but in real life have talked people out of buying far more than I ever sold because it was the right thing to do. Ive  been following/posting data here and advising piggs for a very long time here. I’ve made many a lot of money and I’ve lost not one cent for a single one. Not one

My comments are spot on with Rich’s charts and data. In fact if you read my monitors my comments and analysis typically are 3-4 months ahead of his.

I’ve lost count of how many accurate forecasts or data interpretations I’ve made. I can’t remember you having one? you’ve been so wrong for so long it’s laughable. I’m calm and reaping what I’ve sown. It wasn’t hard. It really wasn’t. I just kept my eyes open and took what was there for the taking which is fraction of what was there for you.

Reality check: you are locked down in 110 degree weather hundreds of miles from civilization claiming to have some great insight but having failed to execute on it. Everything you’ve told us about your decisions indicate they have been extremely poor. You were here before all of us. You had the wherewithal and should be sitting on multiple beachfront properties but you live in Utah. Not even SLC but some fifth or sixth tier city where the only jobs are in slaughterhouses or building homes for people that work there. How can that go well?

And don’t think we didn’t notice you moving the goal posts by claiming 30% gains in 3 years not 2 1/2 years. If we go back another 6 months here our 30% gains become 60% gains.

You bring up politics to make excuses for your bad decisions. We can’t change the world. We can only make the best decisions for ourselves and our families. If you want to talk politics go to Truth Social. You talk about the demise of CA as if it’s written in stone . It is not. There are no Hollywood movies about moving to St. George. But moving to Coastal CA is and has long been the American dream. Some parts of CA will struggle but the Coastal communities offer something found only here. The winners in not just America but the world want to be here. Those that find it beyond their means have other places to go

fact check: You have a mortgage in St George likely much larger than mine in SD and a bigger tax bill. You’re older and had a front row seat long before me. you were here decades before me. I can’t begin to understand how poor your decisions must have been.

 

 

[sdrealtor]

I’m still floored. You had a contractors license. You understood economics. You were smart enough to appreciate the long term benefits of prop 13. You had the ability to finance it at record low rates. You were here decades ago. I think you had a real estate license. Why did you sell anything? Ever? Ever? You don’t have to live here but give your family the choice to in the future. It was all there for the taking . The taking

[Reality]

You two really need to get a room.

Has anyone considered the fallout from many office buildings emptying due to the pandemic?  WFH while once a way to contain the spread has become a way of life for many.  What happens to the now unneeded office buildings?  Apartments?  Condos?   Seems like a no brainer.  No they can’t be easily refurbished but as our favorite realtor pointed out the land is what’s valuable.  Bulldoze and replace with housing.

 

 

 

[sdrealtor]

I take this all seriously and get offended when people who CA has been exceeding good to feel it necessary to bash it on the way out the door. I see it over and over again when people leaving because economically its not for them blame politics. We all know what we signed up for when we came here. Yes it has changed but most places have just as much. We go through cycles and sometimes people leave. But what we have here is so unique and special that as things cycle back they return and always will. You just need a longer vision which I have. I don’t think there is any better place to build generational wealth and long term real estate holdings then where I am. I’m doing it with an eye towards my children’s grandchildren and beyond.

There is a lot of conversation about pre-purposing commercial space. If only it was easy to do so into residential but nothing is easy. There is a shopping center near me that struggled for decades with poor frontage, design and parking. It was the place businesses went to die. I always wished they would just bulldoze it and build nice condo flats for folks to downsize into. Developers tried but the city wanted it to remain shopping center. After countless attempts its finally coming to life as a high end lifestyle center with mostly restaurants and the economics of the area have risen enough to support it. Was the city right to have the vision to hold out? Dunno? I still wish they built nice size flats in a 3 story building with parking below but I dont have vote

[sdrealtor]

3 weeks later. Inventory still building here quickly.

Its been over 110 degrees or close to that for over 30 days now. No relief in sight

[EconProf]

Correct sdr.  You know where temperatures are (slightly) hotter than St. George?  Las Vegas and Phoenix. Which are also getting an influx of people fleeing CA.
Demographics is destiny.

[sdrealtor]

Came back for more punishment I see though that heat must be more than ample.

Phoenix is one of the largest cities in the country and has room for expansion. Most people i know there aspire to live here

Las Vegas is the entertainment capital of the world and perhaps the biggest boom bust city in America. It’s full of retirees and hospitality industry workers. Most would live here if they could.

You don’t live in Phoenix. You don’t even live in Vegas. You live in St George where it will soon be an abundantly painful housing market

the difference between temperatures in Phx, SG and LV is a rounding error

[svelte]

There is room in this big, beautiful country for all of us.  Urban hipsters, suburban families, desert rats, mountain hermits, everyone.   They chose their location because they like it best.  Of course they are going to have a negative viewpoint on the areas they didn’t pick – it wasn’t their favorite.

If we were all the same and made the same choices, that one house in that one city would get very very expensive fast.   Vive la difference.

Pretty sure I’ve said this before, but I’d actually prefer it if a few more people left San Diego.  It is getting too crowded for my tastes.   “You call some place paradise – kiss it goodbye” – Eagles in “The Last Resort”

[EconProf]

Well said, Svelte

To each his own…

[sdrealtor]

Absolutely to each his own. Go where you love or where it meets your needs. That is not the issue. It’s trashing the place you left because you couldn’t have the life you want there. That’s on you, not here. This place is doing just fine and will continue to prosper even more over time. Everything is in place here for that

[sdrealtor]

Temperatures finally cooling with highs not reaching 100 for the first time this Summer. Real estate market continuing to cool here.

Companies are calling workers back. I understand the airport in San Diego has been extraordinarily busy of late on Mondays with some formerly remote workers being told to show up in the office or you have two weeks notice and no severance. One more headwind the zoom cities are gonna battle

[sdrealtor]

[an]

It sucks to be buyers right now.  Not only did price go up by double digits, but rates also went up as well.  On top of that, sellers are not selling.

[EconProf]

Here are a couple of stats relevant to this thread.  BTW, I have not commented recently or kept up with Piggington forum subjects, thinking my subject would die a natural death after so long.  Alas, it lives on!

US Census data released (I think) today, showed that in CA 871,000 people left in 2022.  I assume that is the NET loss–outgoing minus incoming.  A few days ago another news report said higher income people are moving out more so than lower income.

Then today I got my property tax bill for the year for my house for this year:  $2,644.04.  Zillow values it at $760,200, so the property tax represents about 1/3 of one percent.  CA long ago enacted Proposition 13, knocking property taxes down to 1% of value (although I believe add-ons put it at about 1.2%).

For that we get clean government, far better schools (according to national standardized tests), and yes, worse weather.  But I’ve heard from friends in San Diego that their water, sewer, and electric bills are several times higher than St. George.

 

 

 

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