OT: Old posts pre- housing crash

[Ribbles]

[quote=temeculaguy]Maybe I should become a film maker, this sounds like something netflix would buy.[/quote]

That is a great idea for a series. Netflix allows for shows that viewers want, as opposed to shows that advertisers want, which is why they are generally better than broadcast shows, and this is something they could and possibly would try. Real time, 6 seasons, 2003-2008. A bull agent, a John Doe office worker and family in over their heads, a frustrated bear, sleazy mortgage lenders, suburban heaven, etc. Maybe done in the style of the Big Short or Weeds. I would watch the hell out of that.

[XBoxBoy]

Just wanted to chime in that I was one who also benefited from Piggington.

I don’t know when I first found the site, it was pretty early in the housing bubble. There wasn’t much discussion but there were some posts by Rich with links to articles about the housing market. I was suspicious about the housing bubble but not confident in my views.

In Nov. 2004 I sold the house I had been living in for a good price, then a bit later got married and by mid 2005 my wife and I were looking to buy. Searching on housing bubble san diego I found Piggington. I didn’t become a regular or sign up to post at that time, just lurked a bit. Then I decided that the site was just too negative and was slowing down my purchase plans so I stopped visiting. But I couldn’t bring myself to pull the trigger on a purchase. Five or six month later I returned, and the site was more active.

Once I returned I became more convinced of the housing bubble. Soon after I fired our realtor. My wife and I settled into a nice rental and I continued to lurk on piggington for another year before posting. Since then I’ve lurked more, posted a little and bought a house in fall of 2009. I still mostly just lurk, only posting once in a while, and wonder how the heck you frequent posters have the time to post these long political diatribes. To each his own though.

But I will forever be grateful to Rich and this site for giving me the info that I need to hold fast from 2005 until 2009 waiting for the bubble to peak, pop, and deflate. It wasn’t always easy to go against all the people who said that housing only goes up. And of course that great line, “Land! They aren’t making any more of it.”

Thanks again to Rich, and all the Piggies,

XboxBoy

[Rich Toscano]

Thank you guys (including TG, who made a special visit back for this 😉 for the kind words. I’m really glad this little site helped some people out!

[sdgrrl]

[quote=Rich Toscano]Thank you guys (including TG, who made a special visit back for this 😉 for the kind words. I’m really glad this little site helped some people out![/quote]

I hope you really know how much now. What maybe started off as something fun for you, ended up saving a lot of people from making awful decisions.

[Anonymous]

The ultimate irony of the housing bust was that many who purchased at the peak did as well or better than those who waited it out. Just don’t pay your mortgage for a few years while collecting rent, enjoy the RV you bought with the HELOC that was forgiven, get a principle reduction a few years later, and come out ahead of all the “smart” people that stressed over the numbers.

[The-Shoveler]

Even if you did buy at peak and held on you probably don’t feel too bad about the whole thing as in most places your back above water and in another ten years it will likely just be noise, water under the bridge so to speak.

The real tragedy IMO is those who but down large downs and were not able to hold on or who lost employment because of the ordeal.

Even those who sold at peak likely gave a lot back in rent and time (loss) and transaction costs.

In the end IMO it was just a waste for most.

Not that this site did not do a good job of education and recording the whole ordeal, just that sometimes for most like the stock market, it is best just to buy an index fund and go on with life not trying to chase the market.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Even if you did buy at peak and held on you probably don’t feel too bad about the whole thing as in most places your back above water and in another ten years it will likely just be noise, water under the bridge so to speak.

The real tragedy IMO is those who but down large downs and were not able to hold on or who lost employment because of the ordeal.

Even those who sold at peak likely gave a lot back in rent and time (loss) and transaction costs.

In the end IMO it was just a waste for most.

Not that this site did not do a good job of education and recording the whole ordeal, just that sometimes for most like the stock market, it is best just to buy an index fund and go on with life not trying to chase the market.[/quote]

Depends where.
Lots of places are still well below nominal prices, in real terms they were big losers.

[sdsurfer]

I definitely go through old posts from time to time on relevant topic.

I’ve learned a ton from this site! I was just going to mention that I miss TG’s posts and there he is with a visit! Start working on that show man…why not?

Just thought I’d chime in to say thank you to Rich for putting this site together and for everyone that contributes. Such a great way to learn from other smart people.

[flyer]

Things worked out differently for everyone. For many, the waiting game paid off–in a big way–for others, not so much, and, agree, a lot depended on where you were looking, and the type of property you were looking for (primary, investment, etc.)

It was another great chance to pick up investment properties in lots of areas, but many people we knew who were looking for a primary on or near the coast really didn’t care that they could get a better deal in other areas that took a bigger hit during the crash–because they weren’t going to buy there anyway–so waiting for what they wanted did pay off for quite a few of them.

[FlyerInHi]

Winning is relative to others. If your peers bought at the peak and held on, then you may not feel so bad for doing the same. But if your peers lost their asses, you may feel smart for waiting. Depends how you value the art of the deal.

Keep in mind that our behavior is a often a product of our environment. We can’t control everything.

[Reality]

[quote=harvey]The ultimate irony of the housing bust was that many who purchased at the peak did as well or better than those who waited it out. Just don’t pay your mortgage for a few years while collecting rent, enjoy the RV you bought with the HELOC that was forgiven, get a principle reduction a few years later, and come out ahead of all the “smart” people that stressed over the numbers.[/quote]

Where would the “E” in HELOC have come from if they bought at the peak?

[barnaby33]

To me this was the high water mark of bubble posting: https://piggington.com/life_is_good_in_amarillo

4PlexOwner, where are you now?

Rich accelerated me down my path, ironically by asking me for money. Somehow I think paying for his early news letter made me more serious about absorbing it’s content.

Josh

[EconProf]

Lots of posters here are touting their astute purchases and sales, all made with perfect timing.
Except me.
I’ll admit to having terrible timing, and as an economist, that is embarrassing. However, I believe in letting it all hang out, so here it is.
In 2006 I bought into the gated community of Santaluz. The house proceeded to fall 40%, putting it clearly underwater. The only consolation was a terrific loan from the hated (and deservedly so) Chase Bank. It was tied to the 5-year Treasury Bond rate, so my interest rate remains about 2.7%.

Lots of economists jokes come to mind. Economists who forecast with a crystal ball must learn to eat crushed glass. Economist forecasts–seldom right, always confident.

I was in good company: Fed chairman Greenspan, Bernanke, many others.

Fortunately the house is now a bit above the purchase price, and my commercial and apartment properties have done well.

It has been good to read all these posts from old-timers. It seems the discussions then were more substantial when the bubble was building and then bursting.
I suspect we are in another bubble.
Trust me, I’m an economist.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Reality][quote=harvey]The ultimate irony of the housing bust was that many who purchased at the peak did as well or better than those who waited it out. Just don’t pay your mortgage for a few years while collecting rent, enjoy the RV you bought with the HELOC that was forgiven, get a principle reduction a few years later, and come out ahead of all the “smart” people that stressed over the numbers.[/quote]

Where would the “E” in HELOC have come from if they bought at the peak?[/quote]

Thanks Mr. Nitpick. I also spelled “principal” incorrectly.

The point is that buying during the bubble often was not the personal financial disaster that many predicted, and in many cases those who were making the “poor” decision benefited in the long run. There are many who purchased with no down payment at or near peak who still own their properties today with low-rate loans and equity.

Nobody predicted that outcome.

[ocrenter]

[quote=EconProf]
I suspect we are in another bubble.
Trust me, I’m an economist.[/quote]

It certainly has the feel of it, folks in the home improvement and remodel business tell me it feels like 2005 all over again. plus we are due for one timing wise aren’t we?

[Author]

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