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Can someone kindly explain what “Black Friday sales” are ? Thanks. Pertinazzio

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

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Can someone kindly explain what “Black Friday sales” are ? Thanks. Pertinazzio

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

FLU wrote : 14,100 to 13,500 in 5 days. What will the bulls say to that?

Wherever and whenever this sell off stops, I suspect that when down the road we look at the episode on a graph for the whole year it will look just like another bump in the road – just like the ones we had in May 2006, Feb 2007 and July 2007.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

FLU wrote : 14,100 to 13,500 in 5 days. What will the bulls say to that?

Wherever and whenever this sell off stops, I suspect that when down the road we look at the episode on a graph for the whole year it will look just like another bump in the road – just like the ones we had in May 2006, Feb 2007 and July 2007.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

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Currencies are a mystery to me. Regarding, however, your elections within your retirement plan, I think you are too conservative. Your time frame is longterm since you are young. To me that argues for being 100% equities. I also think that it wouldn’t be irrational to put 100% in international stocks. My reasoning is that global growth is likely to be far stronger than US growth over the coming decade and beyond. Just my opnion.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

Currencies are a mystery to me. Regarding, however, your elections within your retirement plan, I think you are too conservative. Your time frame is longterm since you are young. To me that argues for being 100% equities. I also think that it wouldn’t be irrational to put 100% in international stocks. My reasoning is that global growth is likely to be far stronger than US growth over the coming decade and beyond. Just my opnion.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

Like I said, I am just trying to understand what’s going on in San Diego; I am not out to push any point of view although I sure hope the extreme bears are right because I am headed that way in March (maybe, yikes, right into the line up at Tourmaline for that matter).

Shiloh wrote: “San Diego is no different than any other place”. If San Diego is no different why is it ranked the No. 2 most unaffordable place in the U.S. according to the survey I linked folks to? Why isn’t the bubble evenly distributed if the bubble isn’t linked to things like desirability or regulatory climate etc?

The 10.5 affordability multiple assigned to SD says everything to me. People just can’t afford a decent place according to historical norms. According to those norms (see the report) a 100K income should get you 300K in house or something like that not a 800k house! The report says basically what Patrick says with the exception of the issue of causality! So why here? Aren’t there special characteristics at work in SD?

San Diego is no different than any other place,

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

Like I said, I am just trying to understand what’s going on in San Diego; I am not out to push any point of view although I sure hope the extreme bears are right because I am headed that way in March (maybe, yikes, right into the line up at Tourmaline for that matter).

Shiloh wrote: “San Diego is no different than any other place”. If San Diego is no different why is it ranked the No. 2 most unaffordable place in the U.S. according to the survey I linked folks to? Why isn’t the bubble evenly distributed if the bubble isn’t linked to things like desirability or regulatory climate etc?

The 10.5 affordability multiple assigned to SD says everything to me. People just can’t afford a decent place according to historical norms. According to those norms (see the report) a 100K income should get you 300K in house or something like that not a 800k house! The report says basically what Patrick says with the exception of the issue of causality! So why here? Aren’t there special characteristics at work in SD?

San Diego is no different than any other place,

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

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Thanks FSD…you are right: it is already happening! But the causes are important because that is where we will find out whether the extreme bears or the moderate bears are more accurate in their predictions. Perhaps we have a bubble caused by speculation combined with a percentage of cost run-ups attributable to other causes, i.e. artificial scarcity of buildable land due to environmental regulation, density restrictions etc. If that is the case, once the speculators are out we will get a downturn that is already happening but not a complete deflation all the way down to inflation-adjusted pre-bubble prices. I don’t presume to know. I am not an expert just someone trying to understand better what is happening.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

Thanks FSD…you are right: it is already happening! But the causes are important because that is where we will find out whether the extreme bears or the moderate bears are more accurate in their predictions. Perhaps we have a bubble caused by speculation combined with a percentage of cost run-ups attributable to other causes, i.e. artificial scarcity of buildable land due to environmental regulation, density restrictions etc. If that is the case, once the speculators are out we will get a downturn that is already happening but not a complete deflation all the way down to inflation-adjusted pre-bubble prices. I don’t presume to know. I am not an expert just someone trying to understand better what is happening.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

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Redfin says there are two different properties at that address .. .doesn’t make sense.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

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Redfin says there are two different properties at that address .. .doesn’t make sense.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

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Oh, another thing…..Redfin says that the price has dropped 120K.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

Oh, another thing…..Redfin says that the price has dropped 120K.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

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Thanks golfgal! You have some good insight but I wonder about this: “The market always beats the managed funds”. What you say is generally true but not always so. For instance, Janus Overseas has consistently whipped its index (MSCI EAFE) over the last 10 years. Cheers.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

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