San Diego 2nd Most Unaffordable Market !!!

[pertinazzio]

According to the just released “Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey,” San Diego ranks as the 2nd most unfordable area out of 159 areas surveyed in Australia, Canada, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. To measure “unaffordability” the survey uses a median income to median price ratio which they call a “multiple”. SD’s multiple is 10.5. Over a period of decades, says the report, multiples of around 3 were consistently normal in all countries. It is only in the last decade and only in certain markets that multiples of higher than six have been recorded.

Over the last several weeks I have become a bit of a bubble bear news and views addict. When today I couldn’t find enough bad news to satisfy my cravings on this worthy site, I went to patrick.net, which I learned about yesterday. From there I found the report.

I have only scanned the executive summary, but one piece of analysis caught my attention: The principal cause of the extraordinary run-ups of prices in select markets is not bubble economics (they don’t mention the term) but rather “land use planning excesses.” In this regard see page 4. If over-regulation is the problem, then perhaps the bubble won’t burst here after all. Thoughts?

http://www.demographia.com/dhi-ix2005q3.pdf

Regards

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

“If over-regulation is the problem, then perhaps the bubble won’t burst here after all. ”

Tell that to all the folks in South County who have already seen a 20% or more decline in median prices. I think it’s too late to speculate about reasons why the bubble won’t burst since it is already happening.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

“If over-regulation is the problem, then perhaps the bubble won’t burst here after all. ”

Tell that to all the folks in South County who have already seen a 20% or more decline in median prices. I think it’s too late to speculate about reasons why the bubble won’t burst since it is already happening.

[pertinazzio]

Thanks FSD…you are right: it is already happening! But the causes are important because that is where we will find out whether the extreme bears or the moderate bears are more accurate in their predictions. Perhaps we have a bubble caused by speculation combined with a percentage of cost run-ups attributable to other causes, i.e. artificial scarcity of buildable land due to environmental regulation, density restrictions etc. If that is the case, once the speculators are out we will get a downturn that is already happening but not a complete deflation all the way down to inflation-adjusted pre-bubble prices. I don’t presume to know. I am not an expert just someone trying to understand better what is happening.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

Thanks FSD…you are right: it is already happening! But the causes are important because that is where we will find out whether the extreme bears or the moderate bears are more accurate in their predictions. Perhaps we have a bubble caused by speculation combined with a percentage of cost run-ups attributable to other causes, i.e. artificial scarcity of buildable land due to environmental regulation, density restrictions etc. If that is the case, once the speculators are out we will get a downturn that is already happening but not a complete deflation all the way down to inflation-adjusted pre-bubble prices. I don’t presume to know. I am not an expert just someone trying to understand better what is happening.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[NotCranky]

The principal cause of the extraordinary run-ups of prices in select markets is not bubble economics (they don’t mention the term) but rather “land use planning excesses.” In this regard see page 4. If over-regulation is the problem, then perhaps the bubble won’t burst here after all. Thoughts?

This topic is a real pain,MPOV, no doubt.
However, It is not going to make the inhabitants of this fine region able to afford the significant housing stock or the local economy at status quo. In fact the crazy expenses and delays occurring because of planning and land use is probably in part exacerbating the downturn. It is another factor in putting engineers, contractors and labor out of work and reducing the wholesale and retail suppliers and service providers business. The planning people themselves might lose their jobs because of the double whammy of the housing bust and the exceedingly restrictive requirements they themselves demand. I deal with them frequently and believe me they are concerned. I asked if it were possible they would ease of on the general plan for the county to spur work and they said the state won’t let it happen. Cities are in the same boat.

[NotCranky]

The principal cause of the extraordinary run-ups of prices in select markets is not bubble economics (they don’t mention the term) but rather “land use planning excesses.” In this regard see page 4. If over-regulation is the problem, then perhaps the bubble won’t burst here after all. Thoughts?

This topic is a real pain,MPOV, no doubt.
However, It is not going to make the inhabitants of this fine region able to afford the significant housing stock or the local economy at status quo. In fact the crazy expenses and delays occurring because of planning and land use is probably in part exacerbating the downturn. It is another factor in putting engineers, contractors and labor out of work and reducing the wholesale and retail suppliers and service providers business. The planning people themselves might lose their jobs because of the double whammy of the housing bust and the exceedingly restrictive requirements they themselves demand. I deal with them frequently and believe me they are concerned. I asked if it were possible they would ease of on the general plan for the county to spur work and they said the state won’t let it happen. Cities are in the same boat.

[bob007]

I would not take a huge decrease in san diego for granted. If ppl can get a sfr in a safe neighborhood (schools can be lousy) for 350k expect a lot of retirees to purchase such homes.

[bob007]

I would not take a huge decrease in san diego for granted. If ppl can get a sfr in a safe neighborhood (schools can be lousy) for 350k expect a lot of retirees to purchase such homes.

[bob007]

I would not take a huge decrease in san diego for granted. If ppl can get a sfr in a safe neighborhood (schools can be lousy) for 350k expect a lot of retirees to purchase such homes.

[bob007]

I would not take a huge decrease in san diego for granted. If ppl can get a sfr in a safe neighborhood (schools can be lousy) for 350k expect a lot of retirees to purchase such homes.

[SHILOH]

It appears we are watching the “affordability” disparity implode everywhere. Logically, if you are spending 10X your income to service a mortgage, what’s left over? The local economy cannot thrive on the 10X income to mortgage disparity. That’s exactly why it’s imploding now, because it was all propped up by faulty credit. This is just the beginning of this bust — while WS looks for another place to create a bubble and suck all the money to the very top.

San Diego is no different than any other place, unless piling 4 “immigrant” families into a 2500 square foot home to service the same mortgage for 50 years is economically sound…. San Diego’s median income does not support the median home price – and fundamentally that is off, which is the basis of Patrick’s blog.

[SHILOH]

It appears we are watching the “affordability” disparity implode everywhere. Logically, if you are spending 10X your income to service a mortgage, what’s left over? The local economy cannot thrive on the 10X income to mortgage disparity. That’s exactly why it’s imploding now, because it was all propped up by faulty credit. This is just the beginning of this bust — while WS looks for another place to create a bubble and suck all the money to the very top.

San Diego is no different than any other place, unless piling 4 “immigrant” families into a 2500 square foot home to service the same mortgage for 50 years is economically sound…. San Diego’s median income does not support the median home price – and fundamentally that is off, which is the basis of Patrick’s blog.

[pertinazzio]

Like I said, I am just trying to understand what’s going on in San Diego; I am not out to push any point of view although I sure hope the extreme bears are right because I am headed that way in March (maybe, yikes, right into the line up at Tourmaline for that matter).

Shiloh wrote: “San Diego is no different than any other place”. If San Diego is no different why is it ranked the No. 2 most unaffordable place in the U.S. according to the survey I linked folks to? Why isn’t the bubble evenly distributed if the bubble isn’t linked to things like desirability or regulatory climate etc?

The 10.5 affordability multiple assigned to SD says everything to me. People just can’t afford a decent place according to historical norms. According to those norms (see the report) a 100K income should get you 300K in house or something like that not a 800k house! The report says basically what Patrick says with the exception of the issue of causality! So why here? Aren’t there special characteristics at work in SD?

San Diego is no different than any other place,

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

Like I said, I am just trying to understand what’s going on in San Diego; I am not out to push any point of view although I sure hope the extreme bears are right because I am headed that way in March (maybe, yikes, right into the line up at Tourmaline for that matter).

Shiloh wrote: “San Diego is no different than any other place”. If San Diego is no different why is it ranked the No. 2 most unaffordable place in the U.S. according to the survey I linked folks to? Why isn’t the bubble evenly distributed if the bubble isn’t linked to things like desirability or regulatory climate etc?

The 10.5 affordability multiple assigned to SD says everything to me. People just can’t afford a decent place according to historical norms. According to those norms (see the report) a 100K income should get you 300K in house or something like that not a 800k house! The report says basically what Patrick says with the exception of the issue of causality! So why here? Aren’t there special characteristics at work in SD?

San Diego is no different than any other place,

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

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