[pertinazzio]

“If San Diego’s market does what I expect it to do, there will be distressed units in Liberty Station for $600K’ish in 2011-2012”

Whewshish! I really really hope you are right! In the meantime I hope the equitities market remains strong while RE tanks but I suppose that should be a new topic

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

Bloat wrote “You can’t do much better than your ODMAX fund.” Yeah that’s right. It was just dumb look on my part as it just happened to be in the line up in my employee sponsored 403b. Initially I dipped in at 10% but when I saw how things recovered after that little “china” scare back in February I increased my allocation higher and higher. What I am doing is a calculated risk and definitely goes against standard investment advice which states that at 57 I should be much more oriented towards stable funds, cash, and bonds. My thinking is this: I am not where I want to be, there is not that much time to get there… why not lay it all (or nearly all) on the line? So far it is working but it is sure nerve-wracking . I was sweating bullets throughout August and now that its clear sailing again I am even more preoccupied with keeping up with every little gyration and story that may affect me. In a way its not healthy. I wish I could just take the position and forget about it for a while. The biggest threat to my position comes from “geopolitical risk” and terrorism. One or 2 dirty bombs somewhere could totally trash my “global growth” play for years. For those who can’t play ODMAX, Janus Overseas is a five star Morningstar fund with no load.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

Bloat wrote “You can’t do much better than your ODMAX fund.” Yeah that’s right. It was just dumb look on my part as it just happened to be in the line up in my employee sponsored 403b. Initially I dipped in at 10% but when I saw how things recovered after that little “china” scare back in February I increased my allocation higher and higher. What I am doing is a calculated risk and definitely goes against standard investment advice which states that at 57 I should be much more oriented towards stable funds, cash, and bonds. My thinking is this: I am not where I want to be, there is not that much time to get there… why not lay it all (or nearly all) on the line? So far it is working but it is sure nerve-wracking . I was sweating bullets throughout August and now that its clear sailing again I am even more preoccupied with keeping up with every little gyration and story that may affect me. In a way its not healthy. I wish I could just take the position and forget about it for a while. The biggest threat to my position comes from “geopolitical risk” and terrorism. One or 2 dirty bombs somewhere could totally trash my “global growth” play for years. For those who can’t play ODMAX, Janus Overseas is a five star Morningstar fund with no load.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

Wow! You guys are amazing. I never would have thought of that! Makes sense though.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

Wow! You guys are amazing. I never would have thought of that! Makes sense though.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

So most people are predicting that this will take some time to play out specially in the “stickier” (i.e. better areas). I am wondering whether the resolve of stubborn sellers could be cracked if waves of wisecracking bears started working with ” buyer agents” (yeah like they represent you) and then just started offering the prices now that they want for 2012 or whenever.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

So most people are predicting that this will take some time to play out specially in the “stickier” (i.e. better areas). I am wondering whether the resolve of stubborn sellers could be cracked if waves of wisecracking bears started working with ” buyer agents” (yeah like they represent you) and then just started offering the prices now that they want for 2012 or whenever.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

My god .. I don’t believe the photo! What a piece of drek! It looks like so beat it is hard to imagine someone giving 100K for. What could possibly justify such high asking price? Is it in the best part of town?

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

My god .. I don’t believe the photo! What a piece of drek! It looks like so beat it is hard to imagine someone giving 100K for. What could possibly justify such high asking price? Is it in the best part of town?

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

Babbleon wrote: “Being that the stock market is potentially a bubble and it’s important to diversify where should Joe 401k put his money over the next few years?”

I would bet on equities (stocks and stock funds). For several years I have been “maxing-out” on my 403b (like 401Ks I think) at my firm; and now that I have some proceeds from a real-estate sale I am going to start maxing on our underfunded IRAs. In the 403b I have steadily becoming more aggressive even though I am in my mid fifties. Right now (in the 403B) I am 80% Oppenheimer emerging markets (ODMAX) and 20 percent in American Funds Europacific (AEPGX). The returns have been thrilling – if I said how much it would seem like shameless bragging. And you never have to make a “home depot” run with investments like these or mow them either or get them rented out! I fell into them because they were offerred by my employers plan – otherwise there are big front loads plus large initial investment requirements. For someone looking for something a little similar without the loads Janus Overseas which I have owned since June 95. The markets have seen some ups and downs since then and heir have been periods when the fund was down – but overall its been really sweet to me.

I have a prejudice against real estate investments. I got really burned once. In 90 I bought a 4 plex at 601 Silver Spring Avenue, Silver Spring MD 20901. We were really good landlords and there was never a complaint against us. To make a very convoluted story briefer, the county (Montgomery) “stole” the property from us after 10 years just when we were finally getting positive on our cash flow. They forced us to sell at our slightly less than our original purchase price to a favored “non-profit” purchaser as part of an “affordable housing” scheme. It was like something out of Kafka .. worse. People still don’t believe me. 10 years of paint jobs, leasing, floor sanding, and other arduous physical labor was wiped out .. that and much more for it took a part of my cursed soul.

So stocks, my friend, go with stocks! They never call you when things go wrong; if things go south, you just forget about them until things get better.

As for individual stocks, I own very few. GE is one with limited downside(supposedly). I also like it because being concerned with the environment, GE is doing its part on the Global Warming front. Did you know that GE is the world’s leading manufacturer of Wind Turbines?

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

Babbleon wrote: “Being that the stock market is potentially a bubble and it’s important to diversify where should Joe 401k put his money over the next few years?”

I would bet on equities (stocks and stock funds). For several years I have been “maxing-out” on my 403b (like 401Ks I think) at my firm; and now that I have some proceeds from a real-estate sale I am going to start maxing on our underfunded IRAs. In the 403b I have steadily becoming more aggressive even though I am in my mid fifties. Right now (in the 403B) I am 80% Oppenheimer emerging markets (ODMAX) and 20 percent in American Funds Europacific (AEPGX). The returns have been thrilling – if I said how much it would seem like shameless bragging. And you never have to make a “home depot” run with investments like these or mow them either or get them rented out! I fell into them because they were offerred by my employers plan – otherwise there are big front loads plus large initial investment requirements. For someone looking for something a little similar without the loads Janus Overseas which I have owned since June 95. The markets have seen some ups and downs since then and heir have been periods when the fund was down – but overall its been really sweet to me.

I have a prejudice against real estate investments. I got really burned once. In 90 I bought a 4 plex at 601 Silver Spring Avenue, Silver Spring MD 20901. We were really good landlords and there was never a complaint against us. To make a very convoluted story briefer, the county (Montgomery) “stole” the property from us after 10 years just when we were finally getting positive on our cash flow. They forced us to sell at our slightly less than our original purchase price to a favored “non-profit” purchaser as part of an “affordable housing” scheme. It was like something out of Kafka .. worse. People still don’t believe me. 10 years of paint jobs, leasing, floor sanding, and other arduous physical labor was wiped out .. that and much more for it took a part of my cursed soul.

So stocks, my friend, go with stocks! They never call you when things go wrong; if things go south, you just forget about them until things get better.

As for individual stocks, I own very few. GE is one with limited downside(supposedly). I also like it because being concerned with the environment, GE is doing its part on the Global Warming front. Did you know that GE is the world’s leading manufacturer of Wind Turbines?

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

Thanks djrobsd! The type of vibrant urban neighborhood (not to sound too much like a RE promotion)you describe is what I think would best suit us. Maybe I could afford to live there as a now renter – certainly not as a buyer.

Here is one of the single family houses that I found on CL:

http://sandiego.craigslist.org/apa/440918966.html

It is described as a custom executive home! I assume this would be worth around a mil (today’s market) from what you say and from what I’ve gathered on my own. The owner has to be taking a bath renting it at that price. Just suppose that he paid a million and that he paid cash. As an alternative investment he could be getting $60K (at 5%) per year in CDs or something but he is only asking 38,000 per year (12 x 3200). If the rental price reflects the utilitarian value of living in a swell house in a cool, safe, close to everything neighborhood, then the purported value of house like this is out of whack with reality – or at least that is what I think I have learned since I got here a couple of weeks ago. If the owner has a huge mortgage on this property then he is taking even a bigger bath plus having his 150K downpayment tied up. Is it pride that drives people to rent something at a loss rather than sell it at a loss?

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[In case anyone is wondering what my signature means, it can be translated roughly as : Fortunate is he who free from worrisome business and free from debt works his land with his own oxen! I work in a major environmental organization in DC. Unfortunately, they don’t give me enough work to keep me busy (I am a peon). So to keep myself busy I taught myself latin in my ample spare time.]

[pertinazzio]

Thanks djrobsd! The type of vibrant urban neighborhood (not to sound too much like a RE promotion)you describe is what I think would best suit us. Maybe I could afford to live there as a now renter – certainly not as a buyer.

Here is one of the single family houses that I found on CL:

http://sandiego.craigslist.org/apa/440918966.html

It is described as a custom executive home! I assume this would be worth around a mil (today’s market) from what you say and from what I’ve gathered on my own. The owner has to be taking a bath renting it at that price. Just suppose that he paid a million and that he paid cash. As an alternative investment he could be getting $60K (at 5%) per year in CDs or something but he is only asking 38,000 per year (12 x 3200). If the rental price reflects the utilitarian value of living in a swell house in a cool, safe, close to everything neighborhood, then the purported value of house like this is out of whack with reality – or at least that is what I think I have learned since I got here a couple of weeks ago. If the owner has a huge mortgage on this property then he is taking even a bigger bath plus having his 150K downpayment tied up. Is it pride that drives people to rent something at a loss rather than sell it at a loss?

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[In case anyone is wondering what my signature means, it can be translated roughly as : Fortunate is he who free from worrisome business and free from debt works his land with his own oxen! I work in a major environmental organization in DC. Unfortunately, they don’t give me enough work to keep me busy (I am a peon). So to keep myself busy I taught myself latin in my ample spare time.]

[pertinazzio]

Thanks for the quick responses and good ideas. The idea that coastal area prices won’t bottom until later is appealing; gives me more time to amass capital and I can definitly rent in a better area than I can afford to buy (right now I could afford Spring Valley but not where I want to be … inside or just outside “the 5” as youse guys say). Someone (rustico?) mentioned a thread about the advantages of renting… maybe I saw it .. dunno… I have been reading a lot of great stuff around here lately but unfortunately some of it has just become a blur. Where was that thread?

In the meantime if anyone else has thoughts on LS, PL and Loma Portal I would be glad to read them. Other areas of interest are just to the North and extend as far as Tourmaline Street. Pertinax/Pertinazzio

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

Thanks for the quick responses and good ideas. The idea that coastal area prices won’t bottom until later is appealing; gives me more time to amass capital and I can definitly rent in a better area than I can afford to buy (right now I could afford Spring Valley but not where I want to be … inside or just outside “the 5” as youse guys say). Someone (rustico?) mentioned a thread about the advantages of renting… maybe I saw it .. dunno… I have been reading a lot of great stuff around here lately but unfortunately some of it has just become a blur. Where was that thread?

In the meantime if anyone else has thoughts on LS, PL and Loma Portal I would be glad to read them. Other areas of interest are just to the North and extend as far as Tourmaline Street. Pertinax/Pertinazzio

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

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