Point Loma, Loma Portal, Liberty Station

[pertinazzio]

Hey

I am new around here but have certainly been enjoying reading what the bears have to say. My wife and I just sold a property in suburban washington dc for 500k and we are heading to San Diego in the spring. We will have one retirement income (42K per year) and about 600K in combined 401K and other investments but we won’t be retiring for a while. Our plan is to get jobs, then rent, and then maybe buy …. Just kind of talking out loud .. no flames please.

If you bears are right then our timing for coming to San Diego might just be about right. What do you think? I am figuring that in two years we will both be working and that maybe collapse will really be generalized by then! Although an east coaster I know San Diego pretty well especially the coastal area between La Jolla and Sunset Cliffs. That’s where I would like to find something when the time is ripe. Nothing spectacular but really nice, say a 1500 sf 3b 3b (condo, TH or low maintenance single family house) in one of the closer in-to-the-beach areas. Since my lovely little old lady doesn’t drive, Liberty Station seems like a good choice. But the prices are high and it would really hurt me to have to tap the retirement funds for a downpayment (just couldn’t do it…. Janus Overseas and Oppenheimer Emerging Markets are just doing so swimmingly). I have seen a number of newer 3b 3b THs on realtor.com for like 790K if I remember well. So my question for the bears is this. Are LS and PL and LP likely to be affected by the downturn? Is it realistic to think of getting one of those Lib Sta properties for 500K two years down the road. Or should we just rent forever (doesn’t seem like a bad option, less headaches). Pertinax

[gn]

Are LS and PL and LP likely to be affected by the downturn?

pertinazzio – Within the same metropolitan area (within "commuting distance" from job center(s)), prices in all sub-markets are connected. When prices in Escondido goes down dramatically (happening right now), it will eventually affect Liberty Station.

I think your time frame of 2 year (2009) might be too soon. That is, you probably have to wait until 2010- 2012 for prices in the coastal areas to reach the "bottom".

 

 

 

 

[patientlywaiting]

Rent a nice condo Downtown SD with a bay view. It’s perfect for retirees or near-retirees. You can find good deal there.

If the market doesn’t drop to where it makes sense to buy, then there’s nothing wrong with renting forever and let the landlord subsidize your retirement.

I agree with 2010-2012 time frame for a bottom.

[patientlywaiting]

Rent a nice condo Downtown SD with a bay view. It’s perfect for retirees or near-retirees. You can find good deal there.

If the market doesn’t drop to where it makes sense to buy, then there’s nothing wrong with renting forever and let the landlord subsidize your retirement.

I agree with 2010-2012 time frame for a bottom.

[gn]

Are LS and PL and LP likely to be affected by the downturn?

pertinazzio – Within the same metropolitan area (within "commuting distance" from job center(s)), prices in all sub-markets are connected. When prices in Escondido goes down dramatically (happening right now), it will eventually affect Liberty Station.

I think your time frame of 2 year (2009) might be too soon. That is, you probably have to wait until 2010- 2012 for prices in the coastal areas to reach the "bottom".

 

 

 

 

[NotCranky]

“Or should we just rent forever (doesn’t seem like a bad option, less headaches). Pertinax”

On another thread I actually recommended the possibilites of seniors renting it out for the “duration”( sorry for the morbidity) as being a potentially wise move.Like for many people renting brings up quality of life issues for me, but it would depend on the trade offs I guess.

This is what I would think about if in your shoes…
As long as you can afford to start here as a “happy renter” you are doing fine. What would be your plan “B” if the area you mention doesn’t meet your expectations for price. If you want to live here even if you ideal property can’t be had according to your parameters and renting became problematic? In that case would you want to live anywhere other than San Diego or just move to another less expensive neighborhood here?

I love San Diego and was indoctrinated to this place when liberty station was boot camp for me. Personally I’d rather be in Bay Park if Point Loma were kept out of the equation.

[pertinazzio]

Thanks for the quick responses and good ideas. The idea that coastal area prices won’t bottom until later is appealing; gives me more time to amass capital and I can definitly rent in a better area than I can afford to buy (right now I could afford Spring Valley but not where I want to be … inside or just outside “the 5” as youse guys say). Someone (rustico?) mentioned a thread about the advantages of renting… maybe I saw it .. dunno… I have been reading a lot of great stuff around here lately but unfortunately some of it has just become a blur. Where was that thread?

In the meantime if anyone else has thoughts on LS, PL and Loma Portal I would be glad to read them. Other areas of interest are just to the North and extend as far as Tourmaline Street. Pertinax/Pertinazzio

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

Thanks for the quick responses and good ideas. The idea that coastal area prices won’t bottom until later is appealing; gives me more time to amass capital and I can definitly rent in a better area than I can afford to buy (right now I could afford Spring Valley but not where I want to be … inside or just outside “the 5” as youse guys say). Someone (rustico?) mentioned a thread about the advantages of renting… maybe I saw it .. dunno… I have been reading a lot of great stuff around here lately but unfortunately some of it has just become a blur. Where was that thread?

In the meantime if anyone else has thoughts on LS, PL and Loma Portal I would be glad to read them. Other areas of interest are just to the North and extend as far as Tourmaline Street. Pertinax/Pertinazzio

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[NotCranky]

“Or should we just rent forever (doesn’t seem like a bad option, less headaches). Pertinax”

On another thread I actually recommended the possibilites of seniors renting it out for the “duration”( sorry for the morbidity) as being a potentially wise move.Like for many people renting brings up quality of life issues for me, but it would depend on the trade offs I guess.

This is what I would think about if in your shoes…
As long as you can afford to start here as a “happy renter” you are doing fine. What would be your plan “B” if the area you mention doesn’t meet your expectations for price. If you want to live here even if you ideal property can’t be had according to your parameters and renting became problematic? In that case would you want to live anywhere other than San Diego or just move to another less expensive neighborhood here?

I love San Diego and was indoctrinated to this place when liberty station was boot camp for me. Personally I’d rather be in Bay Park if Point Loma were kept out of the equation.

[djrobsd]

I live in Liberty Station, and I can certainly say that it is an awesome place to live, as long as you can get used to the airplanes taking off at Lindbergh field from 6am to 11:30pm at night. I’m not being sarcastic at all, it took me a good 3 months to get to the point where it doesn’t irritate me, and it has just become background noise.

With that said, it’s a very walkable neighborhood (except on Sunday when thousands of cars invade our neighborhood for the Rock Church)… There is Trader Joe’s, Starbucks (2 actually!), Vons will open in a couple weeks (major grocery chain here in So Cal), Panera Bread, La Salsa, Wine Steals (upscale wine bar), Subway, Massage Envy, etc. There is a small inlet which connects directly into the San Diego Bay right at the end of our park, where if you like to kayak you can just drop your kayak right into the water and stroll around the bay…. The water front park is going to be like 43 acres when finished, but even the current park now is huge.

I’ve watched the values go up, and level off, and now they are starting to slip. I think that the values are dramatically different around the neighborhood because they are all brand new construction, and many home buyers bought upgrades in excess of 100k of their purchase price, while others bought the “Stock” models with the white tile counter tops, cheap cabinets, and linoleum floors in the bath and kitchens. In addition, a small number of the units face the park and have a beautiful view of downtown and the water, while others have no view at all. Corner units also carry a premium since they are the largest ones and have the best floor plan layout.

It’s really hard to say what will happen. No neighborhood is bullet proof, but if you love liberty station, try renting here first. Last time I saw a story in the Trib about it, about 30-40% of the units were purchased as “investment” properties, and are rentals, so you should be able to find a nice unit for rent. I’m not sure what rents are, I’m guessing probably at least $2000 a month for a 3 bedroom 2 bath unit, but I could be wrong.

In summary, pros of LS:

-Walk to grocery stores and restaurants
-Easy access to the San Diego Bay
-Beautiful park
-Friendly neighbors
-Easy access to ocean, sunset cliffs, etc (5 minutes away)

Cons:

-Airport noise
-Price to buy ($550-750k for most of the condos (which are more laid out like townhouses), 850-950k for the row homes, and 1million+ for the detached homes with a SMALL yard)
-Church traffic on Sundays, thousands of cars, over 7000 people driving up and down the streets every Sunday!

[NotCranky]

pertinazzio

The comments about seniors renting in perpetuity wasn’t part of a significant discussion. It was just someplace I added two more cents worth,otherwise I would go find it. I think with the pace you have decided to take in handling the rent or buy scenarios the most reasonable decisions will be revealed to you as time passes.

[SD Realtor]

I know of someone else looking at Liberty Station. It is a real story of sellers not budging on pricing. There are currently 3 pending listings in LS. So I do see prices moving down over there but very very slowly.

Not much motivation on any of the sellers parts.

SD Realtor

[4plexowner]

Another nice feature of Liberty Station: you can cross North Harbor Dr at Laning Rd and get onto the sidewalk that runs along Harbor Dr

this sidewalk takes you all the way to the Star of India (1.7 miles one way) and it is a nice walk / jog / skate / bike / etc – the sidewalk is well away from Harbor Dr for most of the distance and it goes through Spanish Landing Park which is right across from the marinas

very scenic and very convenient

[4plexowner]

Another nice feature of Liberty Station: you can cross North Harbor Dr at Laning Rd and get onto the sidewalk that runs along Harbor Dr

this sidewalk takes you all the way to the Star of India (1.7 miles one way) and it is a nice walk / jog / skate / bike / etc – the sidewalk is well away from Harbor Dr for most of the distance and it goes through Spanish Landing Park which is right across from the marinas

very scenic and very convenient

[Raybyrnes]

Liberty Staion is going to be very sticky on the way down. A lot of smart money got in there early. McMillan and many friends and family have been well counseled. They are sitting on huge amounts of equity and if they are not cash strapped they do not have to sell.

[sdcellar]

Raybyrnes– What does that even mean?

[SD Realtor]

Ray you pegged it… On top of that, the entire Liberty Station deal was a total screw up by the city of SD. The developer really got a great deal thanks to our idiots at city hall or city council… So what Ray is saying is that alot of smart money got in there and got in there quick. Many friends of the developers, and others simply got in at first crack and the appreciation has been substantial in a very small amount of time. So don’t expect to see much distress in Liberty Station at all… Basically those that live there do not have to sell and those that do have to sell have the luxury of a large equity cushion and a relatively (given this crappy market) high demand. Lots of listings in there that have expired, recycled, expired or cancelled again. Don’t get me wrong, prices have come down there but not by much.

As Ray said it will be sticky over there… really sticky.

SD Realtor

[4plexowner]

I have a different opinion on Liberty Station

When I walk / skate /jog through Liberty Station I make a point of looking for streets that DON’T have at least one For Sale sign – there aren’t many

Last time I counted For Sale signs a full 7% of the single-family units were for sale – seems high to me – how does this compare to other newly built neighborhoods?

Personally, the idea of paying $800K+ for a townhome in Liberty Station is laughable – these units are so close to one another that you can borrow a cup of sugar from your neighbor by sticking your hand out the kitchen window (not kidding!)

If San Diego’s market does what I expect it to do, there will be distressed units in Liberty Station for $600K’ish in 2011-2012

Time will tell …

[pertinazzio]

“If San Diego’s market does what I expect it to do, there will be distressed units in Liberty Station for $600K’ish in 2011-2012”

Whewshish! I really really hope you are right! In the meantime I hope the equitities market remains strong while RE tanks but I suppose that should be a new topic

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

“If San Diego’s market does what I expect it to do, there will be distressed units in Liberty Station for $600K’ish in 2011-2012”

Whewshish! I really really hope you are right! In the meantime I hope the equitities market remains strong while RE tanks but I suppose that should be a new topic

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[SD Realtor]

4plex actually I thing your statement is one of agreement. I don’t think there is an argument of whether it will go down… the previaling thoughts are that it will be sticky or stickier compared to other neighborhoods which so far has been the case. If your prophecy of 600k by 2011 or 2012 rings true then that would certainly validate the sticky point, (Personally I am hoping sooner then that). I assume also that you are referencing the 1900 sq foot models (as a minimum size) for 600k. I would agree with your assessment 100% and HOPE that they will be even cheaper then that by that time. I am not so sure that Liberty Station will see anywhere near the distress that we have seen downtown. I don’t feel the level of speculation was as high there. It is not a question of will it go down, it is just when will it go down. Absolutely agreed that there is ALOT for sale there. So far it has been stickier then other neighborhoods. Hopefully we will see the first chunk down this next year.

[SD Realtor]

4plex actually I thing your statement is one of agreement. I don’t think there is an argument of whether it will go down… the previaling thoughts are that it will be sticky or stickier compared to other neighborhoods which so far has been the case. If your prophecy of 600k by 2011 or 2012 rings true then that would certainly validate the sticky point, (Personally I am hoping sooner then that). I assume also that you are referencing the 1900 sq foot models (as a minimum size) for 600k. I would agree with your assessment 100% and HOPE that they will be even cheaper then that by that time. I am not so sure that Liberty Station will see anywhere near the distress that we have seen downtown. I don’t feel the level of speculation was as high there. It is not a question of will it go down, it is just when will it go down. Absolutely agreed that there is ALOT for sale there. So far it has been stickier then other neighborhoods. Hopefully we will see the first chunk down this next year.

[4plexowner]

I have a different opinion on Liberty Station

When I walk / skate /jog through Liberty Station I make a point of looking for streets that DON’T have at least one For Sale sign – there aren’t many

Last time I counted For Sale signs a full 7% of the single-family units were for sale – seems high to me – how does this compare to other newly built neighborhoods?

Personally, the idea of paying $800K+ for a townhome in Liberty Station is laughable – these units are so close to one another that you can borrow a cup of sugar from your neighbor by sticking your hand out the kitchen window (not kidding!)

If San Diego’s market does what I expect it to do, there will be distressed units in Liberty Station for $600K’ish in 2011-2012

Time will tell …

[SD Realtor]

Ray you pegged it… On top of that, the entire Liberty Station deal was a total screw up by the city of SD. The developer really got a great deal thanks to our idiots at city hall or city council… So what Ray is saying is that alot of smart money got in there and got in there quick. Many friends of the developers, and others simply got in at first crack and the appreciation has been substantial in a very small amount of time. So don’t expect to see much distress in Liberty Station at all… Basically those that live there do not have to sell and those that do have to sell have the luxury of a large equity cushion and a relatively (given this crappy market) high demand. Lots of listings in there that have expired, recycled, expired or cancelled again. Don’t get me wrong, prices have come down there but not by much.

As Ray said it will be sticky over there… really sticky.

SD Realtor

[sdcellar]

Raybyrnes– What does that even mean?

[Raybyrnes]

Liberty Staion is going to be very sticky on the way down. A lot of smart money got in there early. McMillan and many friends and family have been well counseled. They are sitting on huge amounts of equity and if they are not cash strapped they do not have to sell.

[SD Realtor]

I know of someone else looking at Liberty Station. It is a real story of sellers not budging on pricing. There are currently 3 pending listings in LS. So I do see prices moving down over there but very very slowly.

Not much motivation on any of the sellers parts.

SD Realtor

[NotCranky]

pertinazzio

The comments about seniors renting in perpetuity wasn’t part of a significant discussion. It was just someplace I added two more cents worth,otherwise I would go find it. I think with the pace you have decided to take in handling the rent or buy scenarios the most reasonable decisions will be revealed to you as time passes.

[pertinazzio]

Thanks djrobsd! The type of vibrant urban neighborhood (not to sound too much like a RE promotion)you describe is what I think would best suit us. Maybe I could afford to live there as a now renter – certainly not as a buyer.

Here is one of the single family houses that I found on CL:

http://sandiego.craigslist.org/apa/440918966.html

It is described as a custom executive home! I assume this would be worth around a mil (today’s market) from what you say and from what I’ve gathered on my own. The owner has to be taking a bath renting it at that price. Just suppose that he paid a million and that he paid cash. As an alternative investment he could be getting $60K (at 5%) per year in CDs or something but he is only asking 38,000 per year (12 x 3200). If the rental price reflects the utilitarian value of living in a swell house in a cool, safe, close to everything neighborhood, then the purported value of house like this is out of whack with reality – or at least that is what I think I have learned since I got here a couple of weeks ago. If the owner has a huge mortgage on this property then he is taking even a bigger bath plus having his 150K downpayment tied up. Is it pride that drives people to rent something at a loss rather than sell it at a loss?

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[In case anyone is wondering what my signature means, it can be translated roughly as : Fortunate is he who free from worrisome business and free from debt works his land with his own oxen! I work in a major environmental organization in DC. Unfortunately, they don’t give me enough work to keep me busy (I am a peon). So to keep myself busy I taught myself latin in my ample spare time.]

[NotCranky]

“Is it pride that drives people to rent something at a loss rather than sell it at a loss?”

How about the inability to afford to sell it at a loss?

El dueno se encuentra entre de la espada y la pared. Does latin help you with that because Spanish didn’t help me a bit with your Latin and that es una gran sorpresa. The sentiment expressed in your sign off is nice however…

[NotCranky]

“Is it pride that drives people to rent something at a loss rather than sell it at a loss?”

How about the inability to afford to sell it at a loss?

El dueno se encuentra entre de la espada y la pared. Does latin help you with that because Spanish didn’t help me a bit with your Latin and that es una gran sorpresa. The sentiment expressed in your sign off is nice however…

[pertinazzio]

Thanks djrobsd! The type of vibrant urban neighborhood (not to sound too much like a RE promotion)you describe is what I think would best suit us. Maybe I could afford to live there as a now renter – certainly not as a buyer.

Here is one of the single family houses that I found on CL:

http://sandiego.craigslist.org/apa/440918966.html

It is described as a custom executive home! I assume this would be worth around a mil (today’s market) from what you say and from what I’ve gathered on my own. The owner has to be taking a bath renting it at that price. Just suppose that he paid a million and that he paid cash. As an alternative investment he could be getting $60K (at 5%) per year in CDs or something but he is only asking 38,000 per year (12 x 3200). If the rental price reflects the utilitarian value of living in a swell house in a cool, safe, close to everything neighborhood, then the purported value of house like this is out of whack with reality – or at least that is what I think I have learned since I got here a couple of weeks ago. If the owner has a huge mortgage on this property then he is taking even a bigger bath plus having his 150K downpayment tied up. Is it pride that drives people to rent something at a loss rather than sell it at a loss?

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[In case anyone is wondering what my signature means, it can be translated roughly as : Fortunate is he who free from worrisome business and free from debt works his land with his own oxen! I work in a major environmental organization in DC. Unfortunately, they don’t give me enough work to keep me busy (I am a peon). So to keep myself busy I taught myself latin in my ample spare time.]

[djrobsd]

I live in Liberty Station, and I can certainly say that it is an awesome place to live, as long as you can get used to the airplanes taking off at Lindbergh field from 6am to 11:30pm at night. I’m not being sarcastic at all, it took me a good 3 months to get to the point where it doesn’t irritate me, and it has just become background noise.

With that said, it’s a very walkable neighborhood (except on Sunday when thousands of cars invade our neighborhood for the Rock Church)… There is Trader Joe’s, Starbucks (2 actually!), Vons will open in a couple weeks (major grocery chain here in So Cal), Panera Bread, La Salsa, Wine Steals (upscale wine bar), Subway, Massage Envy, etc. There is a small inlet which connects directly into the San Diego Bay right at the end of our park, where if you like to kayak you can just drop your kayak right into the water and stroll around the bay…. The water front park is going to be like 43 acres when finished, but even the current park now is huge.

I’ve watched the values go up, and level off, and now they are starting to slip. I think that the values are dramatically different around the neighborhood because they are all brand new construction, and many home buyers bought upgrades in excess of 100k of their purchase price, while others bought the “Stock” models with the white tile counter tops, cheap cabinets, and linoleum floors in the bath and kitchens. In addition, a small number of the units face the park and have a beautiful view of downtown and the water, while others have no view at all. Corner units also carry a premium since they are the largest ones and have the best floor plan layout.

It’s really hard to say what will happen. No neighborhood is bullet proof, but if you love liberty station, try renting here first. Last time I saw a story in the Trib about it, about 30-40% of the units were purchased as “investment” properties, and are rentals, so you should be able to find a nice unit for rent. I’m not sure what rents are, I’m guessing probably at least $2000 a month for a 3 bedroom 2 bath unit, but I could be wrong.

In summary, pros of LS:

-Walk to grocery stores and restaurants
-Easy access to the San Diego Bay
-Beautiful park
-Friendly neighbors
-Easy access to ocean, sunset cliffs, etc (5 minutes away)

Cons:

-Airport noise
-Price to buy ($550-750k for most of the condos (which are more laid out like townhouses), 850-950k for the row homes, and 1million+ for the detached homes with a SMALL yard)
-Church traffic on Sundays, thousands of cars, over 7000 people driving up and down the streets every Sunday!

[Author]

Posts